Drake
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.1 #158
Expected Predictive Rating -1.2 #187
Pace 66.2 #261
Improvement +0.1 #181

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #169 C+ D+ B C C-
Defense #160 C B D C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #322 1.20 #125 -2.6 #277
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #161 0.85 #58 +1.3 #105
Three Pointers 46% #80 1.03 #165 +2.8 #94
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #133 +1.5 #132
Freethrows 17.2 #197 72% #226 12.3 #204
Second Chance 24.9% #323 1.12 #82 0.28 #263
Turnovers 14.6% #69
Total Offense -0.1 #169

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #331 1.24 #280 +2.6 #92
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #152 0.64 #29 +0.9 #122
Three Pointers 47% #38 1.03 #200 -3.3 #309
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #169 +0.3 #168
Freethrows 17.5 #197 72% #132 12.6 #178
Second Chance 29.1% #117 0.93 #46 0.27 #69
Turnovers 14.5% #294
Total Defense +0.2 #160

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.0% #255 -1.1% #80
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.9% #112 0.6% #193
Possession Length 17.9 #237 17.0 #134
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #259 0.17 #182
Improvement -0.6 #212 +0.7 #139

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 3.5% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.6 14.3
.500 or above 26.5% 40.2% 15.3%
.500 or above in Conference 41.4% 57.8% 28.0%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.2% 2.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round2.7% 3.5% 2.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Away) - 45.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 51 - 6
Quad 36 - 88 - 14
Quad 46 - 314 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 315 Northern Arizona W 77 - 71 81% +0  1 - 0 -3 -1 C+ F B -3 C A F
 Thu, Nov 6 200 Robert Morris L 79 - 81 OT 71% -2  1 - 1 -8 -3 F D A+ -4 F B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 257 SIU Edwardsville L 59 - 61 78% -5  1 - 2 -10 -6 F B A- -4 D A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 164 @College of Charleston W 71 - 62 40% +5  2 - 2 +12 +0 C F F +12 A+ A+ C
 Fri, Nov 28 43 LSU L 62 - 71 14% -9  2 - 3 +3 -5 D F A+ +7 B- A+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 113 Georgia Tech W 84 - 74 37% +5  3 - 3 +13 +21 A+ A+ A+ -7 C B F
 Tue, Dec 2 356 Western Illinois W 108 - 57 94% +26  4 - 3 +34 +40 A+ A+ C+ -1 C A+ F
 Fri, Dec 5 117 UAB L 69 - 74 51% -2  4 - 4 -5 -2 F C- A+ -3 C+ C- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 147 North Dakota St. L 94 - 99 59% -9  4 - 5 -7 +17 A+ F C -24 F D F
 Thu, Dec 18 97 @Murray St. L 72 - 81 22% -5  4 - 6 0 - 1 -1 +4 D+ C+ C- -5 A+ D- F
 Sun, Dec 21 271 @Evansville W 66 - 65 62% +2  5 - 6 1 - 1 -2 -0 C D+ D+ -2 A F D+
 Mon, Dec 29 90 Illinois St. L 56 - 73 37% -8  5 - 7 1 - 2 -14 -12 F D+ A- -3 F A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 188 Indiana St. W 74 - 72 68% -0  6 - 7 2 - 2 -3 +7 A+ D+ C+ -10 C F A+
 Wed, Jan 7 119 @Bradley L 66 - 93 29% -20  6 - 8 2 - 3 -21 -8 D F B- -12 F C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 82 Belmont L 76 - 78 34% +11  6 - 9 2 - 4 +2 +1 A+ F F +1 A+ F C+
 Wed, Jan 14 146 @Southern Illinois W 76 - 73 OT 36% -4  7 - 9 3 - 4 +7 -1 F B C +7 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 151 @Illinois-Chicago L 67 - 74 37% -7  7 - 10 3 - 5 -3 +1 C F A+ -5 B C F
 Wed, Jan 21 97 Murray St. W 101 - 90 41% +5  8 - 10 4 - 5 +13 +12 B- A+ A+ -0 C+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 24 188 @Indiana St. L 74 - 75 45%
 Wed, Jan 28 271 Evansville W 74 - 65 81%
 Sat, Jan 31 119 Bradley W 73 - 72 52%
 Tue, Feb 3 82 @Belmont L 71 - 81 17%
 Fri, Feb 6 90 @Illinois St. L 66 - 75 20%
 Mon, Feb 9 167 Valparaiso W 71 - 67 65%
 Thu, Feb 12 151 Illinois-Chicago W 72 - 69 59%
 Sun, Feb 15 110 @Northern Iowa L 59 - 66 27%
 Wed, Feb 18 146 Southern Illinois W 72 - 70 58%
 Wed, Feb 25 167 @Valparaiso L 68 - 70 43%
 Sun, Mar 1 110 Northern Iowa L 62 - 63 48%
Totals 13 - 16 9 - 11 +0 +0 C+ D+ B +0 C B D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.3 1.1 0.1 4.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.7 3.1 0.4 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 6.8 5.6 0.8 0.0 14.6 5th
6th 0.6 6.7 8.2 1.6 0.0 17.1 6th
7th 0.4 4.9 10.1 2.9 0.1 18.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.5 9.1 4.1 0.2 17.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.2 3.4 0.3 12.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.4 0.1 4.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 11th
Total 0.2 1.3 5.0 11.5 18.2 22.4 19.2 12.7 6.6 2.3 0.5 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 42.9% 0.0    0.0
14-6 27.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.5% 11.0% 11.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-7 2.3% 11.6% 11.6% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.0
12-8 6.6% 7.0% 7.0% 12.9 0.2 0.2 0.1 6.1
11-9 12.7% 4.9% 4.9% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 12.1
10-10 19.2% 3.2% 3.2% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 18.6
9-11 22.4% 2.0% 2.0% 15.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 21.9
8-12 18.2% 1.3% 1.3% 15.7 0.1 0.2 18.0
7-13 11.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 11.4
6-14 5.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.0
5-15 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 13.9 97.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%