Drake
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#128
Expected Predictive Rating-2.0#200
Pace63.0#334
Improvement+2.9#23

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#142
First Shot+2.5#111
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#276
Layup/Dunks+0.9#150
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#179
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#108
Freethrows-0.9#228
Improvement+3.0#9

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#124
First Shot-1.8#230
After Offensive Rebounds+3.4#15
Layups/Dunks-0.4#192
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#278
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#295
Freethrows+3.2#24
Improvement-0.1#199
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 9.8% 7.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.2
.500 or above 67.5% 74.9% 51.2%
.500 or above in Conference 68.9% 72.7% 60.7%
Conference Champion 9.3% 10.7% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 1.6% 3.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round8.9% 9.8% 6.9%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Home) - 68.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 5
Quad 37 - 69 - 11
Quad 47 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 263 Northern Arizona W 77-71 78%     1 - 0 +0.3 +1.9 -1.6
  Thu, Nov 6 183 Robert Morris L 79-81 OT 75%     1 - 1 -6.7 -1.1 -5.5
  Fri, Nov 14 206 SIU Edwardsville L 59-61 78%     1 - 2 -7.8 -5.3 -2.8
  Mon, Nov 17 180 @College of Charleston W 71-62 54%     2 - 2 +10.6 -0.8 +11.5
  Fri, Nov 28 29 LSU L 62-71 15%     2 - 3 +4.8 -2.8 +7.4
  Sat, Nov 29 134 Georgia Tech W 84-74 53%     3 - 3 +11.8 +21.7 -9.2
  Tue, Dec 2 361 Western Illinois W 108-57 96%     4 - 3 +33.5 +36.3 +2.1
  Fri, Dec 5 112 UAB L 69-74 57%     4 - 4 -4.3 -1.8 -2.5
  Sat, Dec 13 149 North Dakota St. W 71-66 69%    
  Thu, Dec 18 113 @Murray St. L 73-77 34%    
  Sun, Dec 21 279 @Evansville W 69-63 71%    
  Mon, Dec 29 101 Illinois St. W 70-69 53%    
  Sun, Jan 4 196 Indiana St. W 76-68 76%    
  Wed, Jan 7 124 @Bradley L 66-69 37%    
  Sat, Jan 10 88 Belmont L 72-73 49%    
  Wed, Jan 14 142 @Southern Illinois L 70-72 43%    
  Sat, Jan 17 204 @Illinois-Chicago W 71-69 57%    
  Wed, Jan 21 113 Murray St. W 76-74 57%    
  Sat, Jan 24 196 @Indiana St. W 73-71 56%    
  Wed, Jan 28 279 Evansville W 72-60 86%    
  Sat, Jan 31 124 Bradley W 69-66 59%    
  Tue, Feb 3 88 @Belmont L 69-75 29%    
  Fri, Feb 6 101 @Illinois St. L 67-72 32%    
  Mon, Feb 9 214 Valparaiso W 71-62 78%    
  Thu, Feb 12 204 Illinois-Chicago W 74-66 77%    
  Sun, Feb 15 87 @Northern Iowa L 60-66 28%    
  Wed, Feb 18 142 Southern Illinois W 73-69 64%    
  Wed, Feb 25 214 @Valparaiso W 68-65 60%    
  Sun, Mar 1 87 Northern Iowa L 63-64 48%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.7 2.7 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 9.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.9 4.1 2.7 0.8 0.1 11.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.6 4.8 2.8 0.5 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.8 5.7 2.6 0.3 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 4.0 5.7 2.5 0.2 0.0 13.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.8 5.3 2.4 0.2 12.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 3.1 4.5 1.9 0.2 10.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.3 3.2 1.5 0.2 8.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.1 0.7 0.1 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.7 5.5 8.0 10.5 12.2 13.0 12.7 10.8 8.4 5.9 3.5 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
17-3 91.1% 1.4    1.2 0.2
16-4 76.4% 2.7    1.7 0.9 0.1
15-5 45.9% 2.7    1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 15.6% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.3% 9.3 5.3 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 40.0% 40.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.7% 32.0% 32.0% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
17-3 1.5% 32.4% 32.4% 12.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.0
16-4 3.5% 24.5% 24.5% 12.1 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.6
15-5 5.9% 21.2% 21.2% 12.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 4.6
14-6 8.4% 18.0% 18.0% 12.6 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.2 6.9
13-7 10.8% 12.9% 12.9% 12.9 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 9.4
12-8 12.7% 8.9% 8.9% 13.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 11.5
11-9 13.0% 7.1% 7.1% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 12.1
10-10 12.2% 5.1% 5.1% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 11.6
9-11 10.5% 2.1% 2.1% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.3
8-12 8.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.1 0.1 7.9
7-13 5.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 5.5
6-14 3.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.6
5-15 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.4 1.5 0.5 0.2 91.1 0.0%