Drake
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.5#67
Expected Predictive Rating+20.0#8
Pace59.0#359
Improvement-0.4#208

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#91
First Shot+4.0#72
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#238
Layup/Dunks+1.6#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#202
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#216
Freethrows+4.3#8
Improvement-0.6#238

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#45
First Shot+3.2#80
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#43
Layups/Dunks-2.8#285
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#29
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#6
Freethrows-2.7#329
Improvement+0.2#165
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 3.1% 3.2% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.2% 41.5% 27.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.9% 12.1% 2.7%
Average Seed 10.3 10.3 11.2
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 98.6% 95.8%
Conference Champion 52.6% 52.9% 36.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.5% 4.6% 1.8%
First Round38.9% 39.1% 26.9%
Second Round14.2% 14.3% 7.8%
Sweet Sixteen4.1% 4.2% 1.3%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.2% 0.3%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Green Bay (Home) - 98.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 24 - 25 - 2
Quad 310 - 215 - 5
Quad 410 - 125 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 217   Stephen F. Austin W 66-51 90%     1 - 0 +9.4 +5.5 +6.1
  Nov 16, 2024 192   Florida Gulf Coast W 63-61 88%     2 - 0 -2.3 -5.1 +3.0
  Nov 21, 2024 93   Miami (FL) W 80-69 60%     3 - 0 +17.0 +16.5 +2.0
  Nov 22, 2024 85   Florida Atlantic W 75-63 58%     4 - 0 +18.5 +7.3 +11.9
  Nov 24, 2024 50   Vanderbilt W 81-70 43%     5 - 0 +21.3 +10.4 +10.7
  Nov 30, 2024 234   Georgia Southern W 61-47 92%     6 - 0 +7.2 -8.6 +17.1
  Dec 05, 2024 226   @ Valparaiso W 66-60 80%     7 - 0 1 - 0 +5.5 +1.4 +5.0
  Dec 17, 2024 68   @ Kansas St. W 73-70 OT 39%     8 - 0 +14.3 +10.6 +3.9
  Dec 21, 2024 333   Green Bay W 80-58 98%    
  Dec 29, 2024 133   Belmont W 77-67 82%    
  Jan 01, 2025 199   @ Illinois-Chicago W 71-64 75%    
  Jan 05, 2025 124   Murray St. W 68-59 80%    
  Jan 08, 2025 79   @ Bradley L 65-67 44%    
  Jan 11, 2025 290   Evansville W 74-56 95%    
  Jan 15, 2025 153   Illinois St. W 70-59 85%    
  Jan 18, 2025 150   @ Indiana St. W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 22, 2025 226   Valparaiso W 75-60 91%    
  Jan 25, 2025 194   @ Missouri St. W 67-60 74%    
  Jan 29, 2025 98   Northern Iowa W 68-62 70%    
  Feb 01, 2025 168   Southern Illinois W 71-59 86%    
  Feb 04, 2025 124   @ Murray St. W 65-62 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 150   Indiana St. W 78-67 84%    
  Feb 12, 2025 153   @ Illinois St. W 67-62 68%    
  Feb 16, 2025 79   Bradley W 68-64 65%    
  Feb 19, 2025 199   Illinois-Chicago W 74-61 88%    
  Feb 23, 2025 98   @ Northern Iowa W 65-64 50%    
  Feb 26, 2025 290   @ Evansville W 71-59 86%    
  Mar 02, 2025 194   Missouri St. W 70-57 88%    
Projected Record 23 - 5 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.7 11.0 14.4 11.3 6.4 1.9 52.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.1 6.3 8.0 5.1 1.8 0.2 23.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.0 3.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 11.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.5 1.9 0.5 0.0 5.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.2 5.5 8.4 12.2 15.2 16.4 16.2 11.6 6.4 1.9 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.9    1.9
19-1 100.0% 6.4    6.3 0.1
18-2 97.9% 11.3    10.4 0.9
17-3 88.9% 14.4    11.7 2.7 0.1
16-4 67.2% 11.0    7.2 3.5 0.4 0.0
15-5 37.7% 5.7    2.5 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 13.5% 1.6    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 52.6% 52.6 40.3 10.4 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.9% 94.1% 60.6% 33.4% 5.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 84.9%
19-1 6.4% 83.8% 52.7% 31.1% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.0 1.0 65.8%
18-2 11.6% 68.6% 47.5% 21.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.4 2.1 3.2 0.3 3.6 40.2%
17-3 16.2% 51.9% 40.8% 11.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 5.2 1.2 0.0 7.8 18.8%
16-4 16.4% 40.7% 35.7% 5.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.1 2.1 0.0 9.7 7.7%
15-5 15.2% 32.0% 30.5% 1.5% 11.5 0.1 2.4 2.4 0.0 10.4 2.2%
14-6 12.2% 25.5% 25.1% 0.5% 11.7 0.0 1.0 2.1 0.1 9.0 0.6%
13-7 8.4% 20.7% 20.6% 0.1% 11.9 0.3 1.4 0.1 6.7 0.2%
12-8 5.5% 14.9% 14.9% 12.0 0.1 0.7 0.0 4.7
11-9 3.2% 11.4% 11.4% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 2.9
10-10 1.7% 6.5% 6.5% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6
9-11 0.8% 4.9% 4.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.8
8-12 0.4% 2.3% 2.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.3
7-13 0.2% 1.3% 1.3% 13.0 0.0 0.2
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 41.2% 33.2% 8.0% 10.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.5 2.8 4.9 16.9 10.5 0.3 0.0 58.8 11.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 4.2 4.4 8.1 16.2 33.4 20.6 12.5 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 89.1% 6.9 0.6 1.2 4.2 18.2 19.4 17.0 7.3 9.1 9.1 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 81.6% 7.4 1.6 1.6 8.0 16.0 16.8 13.6 14.4 8.0 1.6