Drake
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -1.1 177
Expected Predictive Rating -2.1 205
Pace 67.3 221
Improvement -1.0 232

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #142 C C- B+ C D+
Defense C- #235 C- B- D C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 334 59% 148 -3.4 297
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 155 44% 41 +1.8 84
Three Pointers 46% 72 33% 211 +2.2 108
1st FG Attempt 1.03 158 +0.5 157
Second Chance 26.2% 300 1.11 68 0.29 220
Turnovers 14.3% 36
Freethrows 0.31 169 71% 235 0.22 177
Total Offense +0.9 142

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 331 62% 280 +2.8 90
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 123 33% 36 +0.5 149
Three Pointers 46% 42 37% 321 -4.9 349
1st FG Attempt 1.05 232 -1.6 232
Second Chance 30.4% 177 0.93 52 0.28 93
Turnovers 14.9% 303
Freethrows 0.30 180 68% 19 0.20 117
Total Defense -1.9 235

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.6 270 -0.6 71
Shot Type Accuracy +1.1 130 +2.2 270
Possession Length 17.6 211 17.1 150
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 230 0.17 170
Improvement +2.0 #82 -3.0 #320

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.8 15.4
.500 or above 3% 5% 1%
.500 or above in Conference 8% 15% 2%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Home) - 52.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 36 - 87 - 15
Quad 45 - 313 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 311 Northern Arizona W 77 - 71 78% +0  51% 1 - 0 C- -3 D -5 C F B- C+ +2 C+ A- F
 Thu, Nov 6 204 Robert Morris L 79 - 81 OT 67% -2  20% 1 - 1 D+ -8 D -5 F D A+ C- -3 D- B- A
 Fri, Nov 14 245 SIU Edwardsville L 59 - 61 74% -5  22% 1 - 2 D -10 D- -7 F+ B+ B+ C- -2 D A- D-
 Mon, Nov 17 156 @College of Charleston W 71 - 62 35% +5  69% 2 - 2 B+ +12 C- -1 C+ D- F A+ +13 A- A C-
 Fri, Nov 28 57 LSU L 62 - 71 16% -9  1% 2 - 3 C +1 F+ -9 D- F A+ A- +9 B- A+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 131 Georgia Tech W 84 - 74 39% +5  86% 3 - 3 B+ +12 A+ +17 B+ A+ A+ D+ -4 C- B F
 Tue, Dec 2 362 Western Illinois W 108 - 57 95% +26  98% 4 - 3 A+ +31 A+ +34 A+ A+ B C+ +2 C A- F
 Fri, Dec 5 118 UAB L 69 - 74 46% -2  7% 4 - 4 D+ -5 D -4 F+ C- A C -1 C+ D+ A-
 Sat, Dec 13 146 North Dakota St. L 94 - 99 54% -9  3% 4 - 5 D+ -7 A +14 A+ F C+ F -21 F D F
 Thu, Dec 18 112 @Murray St. L 72 - 81 24% -5  17% 4 - 6 0 - 1 C- -3 C- -0 D C+ C- C- -3 A D+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 273 @Evansville W 66 - 65 59% +2  61% 5 - 6 1 - 1 C- -2 D -5 C D D+ B- +3 A F C-
 Mon, Dec 29 94 Illinois St. L 56 - 73 37% -8  13% 5 - 7 1 - 2 F+ -15 F -14 F C- B+ C- -2 F A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 197 Indiana St. W 74 - 72 67% -0  41% 6 - 7 2 - 2 C- -3 B- +5 A C C+ D- -8 C+ F B+
 Wed, Jan 7 120 @Bradley L 66 - 93 26% -20  3% 6 - 8 2 - 3 F -21 F -11 D+ F C+ D- -9 F+ C- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 78 Belmont L 76 - 78 30% +11  91% 6 - 9 2 - 4 C+ +2 D+ -3 A+ F F B +5 A+ D C+
 Wed, Jan 14 127 @Southern Illinois W 76 - 73 OT 28% -4  21% 7 - 9 3 - 4 B +8 C- -2 D- B B- A- +9 A+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 137 @Illinois-Chicago L 67 - 74 30% -7  0% 7 - 10 3 - 5 C- -3 C- -1 C F A+ C- -2 B D+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 112 Murray St. W 101 - 90 44% +5  80% 8 - 10 4 - 5 B+ +11 B+ +8 C A+ A B- +2 C+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 197 @Indiana St. W 76 - 62 44% +5  95% 9 - 10 5 - 5 A- +15 C- -2 C- F B+ A+ +16 B- A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 273 Evansville W 82 - 78 78% -6  6% 10 - 10 6 - 5 D+ -5 B+ +7 C+ D A+ F -12 F A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 120 Bradley L 73 - 87 47% -8  12% 10 - 11 6 - 6 D- -14 C+ +3 D C+ A+ F -18 F F+ C-
 Tue, Feb 3 78 @Belmont L 90 - 103 14% -8  6% 10 - 12 6 - 7 C- -3 A+ +17 A+ A+ C+ F -20 F D F
 Fri, Feb 6 94 @Illinois St. L 76 - 86 19% -12  0% 10 - 13 6 - 8 C- -2 B- +4 C C+ B+ D -5 D C D
 Mon, Feb 9 155 Valparaiso L 76 - 81 57% +0  50% 10 - 14 6 - 9 D+ -8 B- +5 D A A+ F -13 F F C+
 Thu, Feb 12 137 Illinois-Chicago W 72 - 71 52%
 Sun, Feb 15 100 @Northern Iowa L 60 - 69 19%
 Wed, Feb 18 127 Southern Illinois L 72 - 73 50%
 Wed, Feb 25 155 @Valparaiso L 69 - 73 34%
 Sun, Mar 1 100 Northern Iowa L 63 - 66 38%
Totals 12 - 17 8 - 12 -1 C +1 C C- B+ C- -2 C- B- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C B+ C- C+ 32% 22% 46% D+ C D B- C- B+ C C- C C- D+ B+ D D+ 32% 22% 46% B- C- C B B- D C A- C+
1.10 59% 44% 33% +1 -1 1.03 26% 1.1 .29 14% .31 71% .22 1.11 62% 33% 37% +2 -1 1.05 30% 0.9 .28 15% .30 68% .21
Nov
3		 Northern Arizona D C A+ C C 46% 15% 38% C+ C C F F B- A C- A- C+ A+ A+ F B 49% 20% 31% F+ C+ F A+ A- F A- A A
1.11 58% 63% 35% +5 +1 1.13 33% 0.3 .11 14% .37 73% .27 1.03 43% 17% 53% -3 +1 0.98 31% 0.5 .14 9% .19 58% .11
Nov
6		 Robert Morris D D F F+ F 42% 20% 38% C- F C F D A+ A B- A+ C- F C D F+ 36% 22% 41% C D- D A B- A A+ F B-
1.06 52% 18% 29% -9 0 0.84 30% 0.8 .24 11% .48 78% .38 1.09 67% 38% 38% +5 0 1.12 39% 0.9 .33 23% .14 100% .14
Nov
14		 SIU Edwardsville D- F F+ F+ F+ 29% 20% 51% C F+ D- A+ B+ B+ F F F C- F D A- D- 18% 31% 51% B+ D D A+ A- D- A+ A+ A+
0.97 43% 30% 28% -10 -1 0.80 28% 1.5 .41 13% .15 50% .08 1.00 89% 40% 28% +2 -3 1.00 32% 0.6 .18 15% .17 56% .10
Nov
17		 College of Charleston C- B- F B- C+ 26% 21% 53% C C+ D+ F+ D- F C+ F D+ A+ F A B+ B- 13% 44% 42% A+ A- F+ A+ A C- B- A+ A-
1.03 64% 27% 36% +1 -1 1.02 27% 0.8 .22 19% .25 57% .14 0.90 100% 26% 27% -4 -5 0.85 36% 0.6 .20 16% .33 63% .21
Nov
28		 LSU F+ F A+ F F+ 32% 14% 54% B- D- F C- F A+ F A+ D A- C+ F A A- 62% 4% 35% F B- A+ A+ A+ F C A+ B+
0.91 44% 50% 27% -8 0 0.86 14% 0.8 .12 10% .21 77% .16 1.04 59% 50% 28% -2 +4 1.06 15% 0.6 .09 10% .36 64% .23
Nov
29		 Georgia Tech A+ C+ B- C B- 57% 11% 33% A+ B+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ D+ D+ A+ F C- 40% 21% 40% C- C- B+ C B F C A+ A+
1.29 58% 40% 33% 0 +3 1.07 29% 1.7 .48 9% .46 74% .34 1.14 62% 18% 43% +3 0 1.08 27% 1.1 .30 9% .30 39% .12
Dec
2		 Western Illinois A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 16% 53% D+ A+ D A+ A+ B F A+ D C+ B F A+ D+ 23% 42% 35% A+ C C+ A+ A- F F+ B+ D+
1.69 81% 75% 59% +33 0 1.69 29% 2.2 .65 13% .21 92% .20 0.89 45% 45% 24% -5 -4 0.83 24% 0.6 .14 13% .38 62% .23
Dec
5		 UAB D D+ F B- F+ 36% 24% 40% C- F+ D+ B- C- A C+ C C+ C F B+ A+ C 36% 36% 28% A+ C+ F+ B- D+ A- F D- F
1.01 55% 8% 36% -7 -1 0.87 23% 1.0 .23 12% .26 75% .20 1.08 71% 29% 23% -3 -2 0.91 38% 1.0 .38 16% .49 75% .37
Dec
13		 North Dakota St. A A+ F A+ A+ 27% 20% 53% D+ A+ F+ F F C+ A+ A+ A+ F C A- F F 21% 23% 55% B- F A+ F D F D- A C-
1.30 77% 30% 54% +19 -1 1.39 22% 0.3 .07 18% .49 90% .44 1.37 58% 31% 55% +16 -2 1.30 18% 2.0 .36 7% .33 64% .21
Dec
18		 Murray St. C- A+ C F C 26% 45% 30% F D C+ C+ C+ C- A+ C A+ C- C A+ C+ A+ 35% 15% 50% C A C D- D+ F F F F
1.08 75% 38% 21% -1 -4 0.91 34% 1.1 .37 16% .41 74% .30 1.21 59% 0% 33% -6 +1 0.92 32% 1.3 .41 7% .50 84% .42
Dec
21		 Evansville D C B C C- 35% 18% 47% B- C D C- D D+ F F F B- A- C+ A A 22% 36% 42% A A D- F F C- F C F
1.01 59% 44% 35% +2 0 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 18% .21 45% .09 0.99 50% 38% 26% -7 -3 0.82 29% 1.3 .37 18% .41 73% .30
Dec
29		 Illinois St. F D+ D+ F F 26% 30% 44% D F F+ A+ C- B+ C F D+ C- F A F F 25% 18% 58% C+ F B+ A+ A+ A+ C+ B- B-
0.85 54% 33% 23% -10 -2 0.78 18% 1.3 .23 14% .32 61% .19 1.10 100% 29% 57% +28 -1 1.58 24% 0.5 .12 35% .28 67% .19
Jan
4		 Indiana St. B- D+ A+ B A+ 33% 29% 37% D- A C- C+ C C+ F F F D- D+ A+ C+ C+ 39% 5% 57% C C+ F F F B+ F F F
1.17 53% 73% 37% +10 -1 1.20 31% 1.0 .31 14% .17 44% .07 1.14 65% 0% 32% -1 +2 1.05 34% 1.6 .55 22% .39 84% .33
Jan
7		 Bradley F F F A- D+ 24% 22% 55% C+ D+ F F F C+ A+ F B+ D- C F D- F 33% 21% 46% C F+ B+ F C- F+ F A D-
0.89 42% 27% 39% -2 -1 0.96 15% 0.5 .08 19% .46 61% .28 1.25 58% 58% 38% +7 0 1.16 22% 1.4 .31 11% .42 68% .29
Jan
10		 Belmont D+ D D- A+ A+ 19% 13% 67% C A+ F F F F C- F D B B A+ A+ A+ 33% 11% 56% B- A+ F A- D C+ F F F
1.04 50% 29% 46% +9 0 1.19 23% 0.8 .17 23% .25 64% .16 1.07 56% 17% 27% -9 +1 0.85 39% 1.1 .41 19% .43 76% .32
Jan
14		 Southern Illinois C- B+ A F F+ 27% 19% 54% D+ D- D- A+ B B- A C+ A A- D A A+ A+ 32% 31% 37% B A+ C- A+ B+ F D+ C C-
0.96 64% 50% 18% -9 -1 0.83 22% 1.7 .37 18% .38 72% .28 0.92 65% 32% 13% -11 -2 0.76 30% 0.7 .20 10% .34 67% .22
Jan
17		 Illinois-Chicago C- F A+ F+ C+ 25% 25% 49% F+ C F D- F A+ C F F+ C- A- A+ D+ B 28% 23% 50% B+ B C+ D- D+ F F A F
1.01 38% 69% 28% -1 -2 0.96 26% 0.8 .21 15% .32 56% .18 1.12 45% 22% 35% -6 -1 0.88 35% 1.2 .41 14% .66 63% .42
Jan
21		 Murray St. B+ A B- D- B+ 28% 54% 18% F C D+ A+ A+ A A+ B+ A+ B- F F A+ C+ 32% 20% 48% B C+ A A A+ D F A- D-
1.23 69% 42% 30% +4 -5 1.00 30% 1.7 .51 11% .56 78% .44 1.10 79% 50% 24% +2 0 1.05 24% 0.9 .22 13% .42 70% .30
Jan
24		 Indiana St. C- A+ F F+ C 30% 24% 46% D C- F+ F F B+ A+ F+ A A+ F C+ A C+ 33% 17% 50% A B- B- A+ A+ A+ D- A+ C-
1.04 75% 31% 28% -1 -1 0.98 25% 0.7 .18 12% .37 67% .25 0.85 75% 38% 25% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.5 .11 25% .31 59% .18
Jan
28		 Evansville B+ A+ A C- B- 18% 22% 60% D C+ D+ D- D A+ A+ C+ A+ F F D+ F F 23% 37% 40% A F B+ A+ A+ D- A A+ A+
1.23 75% 50% 33% +5 -2 1.09 28% 0.9 .25 10% .63 74% .47 1.17 83% 42% 52% +19 -3 1.33 18% 0.6 .11 16% .21 58% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Bradley C+ A+ A+ F C- 17% 38% 45% F D B- D+ C+ A+ A+ A A+ F A+ A+ F F 27% 29% 44% A- F F B+ F+ C- A- B A
1.12 75% 56% 19% 0 -4 0.94 35% 0.9 .32 12% .46 81% .37 1.34 43% 20% 70% +14 -2 1.27 40% 0.9 .37 14% .25 71% .18
Feb
3		 Belmont A+ D A+ A+ A+ 31% 20% 49% C A+ B- A+ A+ C+ C+ C C+ F F C F F 34% 14% 53% B F B+ F D F A- A+ A+
1.29 50% 50% 48% +10 0 1.22 36% 1.7 .61 17% .28 75% .21 1.47 80% 38% 48% +19 +1 1.41 24% 1.8 .42 7% .23 53% .12
Feb
6		 Illinois St. B- D- A D+ C+ 33% 31% 35% D+ C B- C- C+ B+ C+ C C+ D F+ A+ F D- 31% 20% 49% C D C C C D D A+ C+
1.06 50% 47% 32% -1 -2 0.96 29% 0.9 .26 14% .32 70% .23 1.20 71% 18% 44% +8 0 1.16 28% 1.1 .31 14% .34 57% .19
Feb
9		 Valparaiso B- D+ A+ F D- 34% 22% 44% C- D C A+ A A+ F F+ F F A F F F 30% 24% 46% D F F+ F F C+ F B F
1.14 55% 46% 23% -6 -1 0.88 32% 1.3 .41 9% .23 64% .15 1.21 43% 55% 43% +5 -1 1.11 38% 1.3 .50 16% .48 67% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.5 4th
5th 0.8 0.4 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.8 0.2 4.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 9.5 2.6 13.6 7th
8th 0.1 2.6 15.6 10.3 0.3 28.8 8th
9th 8.9 23.9 16.0 1.3 50.0 9th
10th 0.8 0.2 1.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 9.8 26.7 33.1 22.0 7.4 1.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 1.0% 5.9% 5.9% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
10-10 7.4% 2.3% 2.3% 14.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 7.3
9-11 22.0% 1.5% 1.5% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.0 21.6
8-12 33.1% 0.6% 0.6% 15.7 0.1 0.2 32.9
7-13 26.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 26.5
6-14 9.8% 9.8
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 15.0 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 6.4%