Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
73 Drake 38.9%   12   18 - 2 10 - 2 24 - 4 16 - 4 +7.6      +3.9 75 +3.7 77 54.4 364 +13.8 41 +9.1 1
94 Bradley 24.4%   17 - 5 9 - 3 22 - 8 14 - 6 +5.8      +2.5 110 +3.3 87 65.9 243 +7.4 75 +7.0 2
108 Northern Iowa 14.4%   13 - 9 8 - 4 18 - 12 13 - 7 +4.0      +3.1 88 +0.9 146 64.2 293 +2.2 133 +4.4 3
123 Illinois-Chicago 7.4%   12 - 8 7 - 5 17 - 11 12 - 8 +2.1      +2.8 96 -0.7 193 71.6 92 +3.6 118 +2.9 4
135 Illinois St. 4.8%   13 - 9 6 - 6 17 - 13 10 - 10 +1.5      +4.1 74 -2.5 249 62.3 336 +2.1 136 -0.1 7
140 Belmont 6.8%   14 - 8 7 - 5 19 - 11 12 - 8 +1.3      +4.4 71 -3.1 265 76.1 28 +3.3 123 +2.6 5
171 Murray St. 2.2%   10 - 12 5 - 7 14 - 16 9 - 11 -0.3      +0.5 171 -0.7 197 63.2 312 -0.4 176 -1.3 10
183 Southern Illinois 1.7%   8 - 13 5 - 7 12 - 17 9 - 11 -1.1      -0.9 198 -0.3 175 69.7 140 -2.2 206 -0.9 9
210 Indiana St. 0.8%   9 - 12 5 - 7 12 - 17 8 - 12 -2.6      +0.2 178 -2.8 257 79.7 7 -2.2 205 -0.9 8
223 Missouri St. 0.4%   6 - 15 1 - 11 9 - 20 4 - 16 -3.4      -2.4 238 -1.0 205 61.9 341 -5.4 252 -13.5 12
226 Valparaiso 0.4%   8 - 13 3 - 9 11 - 18 6 - 14 -3.5      -0.3 183 -3.2 267 70.1 129 -4.1 231 -5.3 11
230 Evansville 0.5%   8 - 14 6 - 6 11 - 19 9 - 11 -3.9      -4.9 304 +0.9 145 66.9 222 -3.3 221 +0.4 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Drake 1.2 81.4 15.7 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Bradley 2.0 30.0 50.7 13.8 3.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Iowa 3.2 6.3 22.5 38.2 18.2 9.7 3.5 1.1 0.4 0.1
Illinois-Chicago 4.3 1.1 7.0 22.9 30.9 20.7 10.6 4.3 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
Illinois St. 6.0 0.1 1.5 6.4 12.9 18.0 23.6 16.4 10.7 6.8 3.1 0.5 0.0
Belmont 4.2 0.9 8.6 24.1 28.2 21.5 9.0 4.4 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0
Murray St. 7.5 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.8 8.4 15.5 18.6 19.1 15.9 11.9 3.9 0.1
Southern Illinois 7.5 0.2 1.4 4.7 9.0 15.6 18.3 17.3 15.7 13.3 4.3 0.2
Indiana St. 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.9 5.5 12.1 16.0 18.8 18.9 19.4 6.7 0.2
Missouri St. 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.8 18.6 77.7
Valparaiso 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.2 6.1 10.4 18.5 50.1 9.8
Evansville 7.6 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.6 7.9 15.8 18.8 20.1 17.5 11.8 3.1 0.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Drake 16 - 4 0.2 0.7 3.2 10.8 21.2 29.8 25.3 8.9
Bradley 14 - 6 0.0 0.4 1.9 6.9 16.0 25.3 27.4 17.5 4.5
Northern Iowa 13 - 7 0.2 1.1 5.4 14.4 23.3 26.4 19.0 8.5 1.8
Illinois-Chicago 12 - 8 0.1 1.1 6.1 15.5 25.9 27.3 16.9 6.1 1.0
Illinois St. 10 - 10 0.7 4.3 12.9 22.4 24.8 20.6 10.3 3.4 0.6
Belmont 12 - 8 0.2 1.8 6.8 15.2 23.6 26.0 18.2 7.2 1.2
Murray St. 9 - 11 0.8 5.8 14.4 24.4 25.7 18.3 8.2 2.1 0.3
Southern Illinois 9 - 11 1.0 5.8 14.7 24.0 25.4 18.2 8.3 2.4 0.3
Indiana St. 8 - 12 1.6 9.2 20.8 27.5 23.8 12.4 3.8 0.8 0.0
Missouri St. 4 - 16 3.9 14.7 26.0 26.7 17.7 8.4 2.3 0.4 0.1
Valparaiso 6 - 14 2.6 11.3 22.3 26.5 20.8 11.7 3.9 1.0 0.0
Evansville 9 - 11 4.1 15.8 26.6 26.2 17.4 7.5 2.1 0.4 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Drake 81.4% 64.8 14.7 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bradley 30.0% 15.5 12.6 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Iowa 6.3% 1.8 3.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 1.1% 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois St. 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Belmont 0.9% 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Murray St. 0.0% 0.0
Southern Illinois
Indiana St. 0.0% 0.0
Missouri St.
Valparaiso
Evansville 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Drake 38.9% 36.3% 2.6% 12   0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.9 19.2 16.4 0.4 61.1 4.1%
Bradley 24.4% 24.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 3.6 15.8 4.6 0.4 75.6 0.1%
Northern Iowa 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 0.5 6.8 5.8 1.2 0.1 85.6 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.2 3.5 3.0 0.6 0.0 92.6 0.0%
Illinois St. 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 1.6 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 95.2 0.0%
Belmont 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0 1.2 3.2 2.1 0.3 93.2 0.0%
Murray St. 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 97.8 0.0%
Southern Illinois 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 98.3 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 99.2 0.0%
Missouri St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.6 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%
Evansville 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Drake 38.9% 2.4% 37.4% 9.0% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 24.4% 0.1% 24.4% 3.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 14.4% 0.0% 14.4% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 7.4% 0.0% 7.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 4.8% 0.0% 4.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 6.8% 0.0% 6.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 2.2% 0.1% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 1.7% 0.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.8% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.3 2.7
1st Round 99.4% 1.0 0.6 98.3 1.1
2nd Round 16.6% 0.2 83.4 16.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.1% 0.0 96.9 3.1
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0