Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
101 Illinois St. 17.9%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 8 +4.4      +4.3 68 +0.1 164 64.9 286 0.0 121 0.0 1
106 Belmont 15.7%   1 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 8 +4.1      +3.3 89 +0.8 137 75.2 36 +2.3 100 0.0 1
109 Northern Iowa 16.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 8 +3.8      +1.6 113 +2.2 106 63.6 308 0.0 121 0.0 1
112 Bradley 13.9%   0 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 8 +3.6      +1.3 119 +2.3 105 65.1 278 -9.8 335 0.0 1
120 Murray St. 10.7%   1 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 11 - 9 +2.5      +0.8 138 +1.6 114 71.4 101 +11.1 16 0.0 1
131 Drake 9.0%   1 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 9 +1.6      +0.1 163 +1.6 117 58.5 361 +7.5 36 0.0 1
139 Southern Illinois 8.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 10 - 10 +1.1      +0.2 157 +0.9 134 69.3 157 0.0 121 0.0 1
141 Illinois-Chicago 6.8%   1 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 10 +0.8      +0.1 161 +0.7 144 72.0 83 +1.6 103 0.0 1
209 Indiana St. 2.3%   0 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 12 -2.6      +1.1 129 -3.8 306 78.9 10 -11.0 340 0.0 1
234 Evansville 1.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 18 7 - 13 -4.0      -4.1 298 0.0 167 66.9 230 0.0 121 0.0 1
279 Valparaiso 0.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 21 5 - 15 -6.2      -2.9 248 -3.3 289 69.3 155 0.0 121 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Illinois St. 3.9 22.7 15.8 13.5 11.4 9.2 8.2 6.8 5.2 3.8 2.3 1.1
Belmont 4.0 19.8 16.3 14.2 12.0 10.1 8.4 6.9 5.1 3.8 2.4 1.1
Northern Iowa 4.2 19.4 15.0 13.3 11.6 10.3 8.7 7.4 5.8 4.3 2.8 1.5
Bradley 4.3 17.6 14.6 13.5 11.9 10.7 9.2 7.7 6.1 4.3 2.8 1.5
Murray St. 4.8 12.4 12.7 12.7 11.7 11.2 10.6 9.1 7.9 5.9 4.0 2.0
Drake 5.3 10.1 10.3 11.0 11.3 11.0 11.0 10.1 9.1 7.6 5.6 2.9
Southern Illinois 5.6 8.6 9.7 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.8 10.4 10.1 9.0 6.4 3.9
Illinois-Chicago 5.8 7.5 9.1 9.5 10.2 10.7 11.1 11.1 10.4 9.4 7.2 3.9
Indiana St. 7.5 2.0 3.4 4.9 5.9 7.1 9.3 11.1 13.0 15.7 15.7 12.1
Evansville 8.2 1.5 2.2 3.2 4.3 5.4 7.1 9.6 12.1 15.5 19.3 19.8
Valparaiso 9.1 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.2 3.3 4.9 6.6 10.0 14.4 21.9 33.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Illinois St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.3 2.5 3.7 5.2 6.9 8.2 9.6 10.2 10.9 10.5 9.7 8.2 5.7 3.6 1.8 0.5
Belmont 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.6 3.5 5.4 7.2 8.6 9.7 11.4 11.4 10.9 9.4 7.5 5.0 3.1 1.4 0.3
Northern Iowa 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.7 3.0 4.2 6.0 7.5 8.8 10.3 10.6 10.4 10.2 8.4 6.8 5.2 3.2 1.5 0.4
Bradley 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.9 4.5 6.1 7.6 9.4 10.6 11.0 10.5 10.2 8.4 6.7 4.4 2.5 1.2 0.3
Murray St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.2 5.7 7.6 8.7 10.5 11.0 10.8 10.1 8.7 7.0 4.9 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.1
Drake 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.3 3.5 5.5 6.9 8.7 9.9 10.3 10.7 10.3 9.2 6.9 5.6 4.1 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.1
Southern Illinois 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.9 4.4 6.1 7.7 9.1 9.9 10.7 10.2 9.6 8.1 6.7 5.0 3.5 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1
Illinois-Chicago 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.3 4.6 6.6 8.3 9.5 10.3 10.7 10.2 9.5 7.6 6.2 4.6 2.9 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1
Indiana St. 8 - 12 0.4 1.6 3.1 5.4 7.6 10.0 10.8 11.3 11.1 10.1 8.4 6.6 5.0 3.9 2.4 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Evansville 7 - 13 1.1 3.1 5.7 8.1 9.9 11.4 11.2 10.7 10.0 8.3 6.6 4.8 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Valparaiso 5 - 15 2.6 6.1 9.6 11.9 12.4 12.7 11.3 9.4 7.2 5.9 4.1 2.7 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Illinois St. 22.7% 16.1 5.1 1.3 0.2 0.0
Belmont 19.8% 13.6 4.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
Northern Iowa 19.4% 13.4 4.6 1.1 0.2 0.0
Bradley 17.6% 12.1 4.2 1.0 0.2 0.0
Murray St. 12.4% 7.8 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0
Drake 10.1% 6.5 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
Southern Illinois 8.6% 5.5 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 7.5% 4.5 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
Indiana St. 2.0% 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Evansville 1.5% 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 0.5% 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Illinois St. 17.9% 17.2% 0.8% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.9 5.7 6.5 2.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 82.1 0.9%
Belmont 15.7% 15.2% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 4.6 6.1 2.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 84.3 0.6%
Northern Iowa 16.1% 15.4% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 5.0 5.9 2.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 83.9 0.7%
Bradley 13.9% 13.7% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 3.1 5.4 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.2 86.1 0.2%
Murray St. 10.7% 10.4% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 2.8 4.6 1.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 89.3 0.4%
Drake 9.0% 8.8% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.2 3.6 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.2 91.0 0.2%
Southern Illinois 8.0% 7.7% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.8 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 92.0 0.3%
Illinois-Chicago 6.8% 6.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 93.2 0.1%
Indiana St. 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 97.7 0.0%
Evansville 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 98.2 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Illinois St. 17.9% 0.6% 17.8% 4.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 15.7% 0.5% 15.5% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 16.1% 0.5% 15.9% 3.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 13.9% 0.3% 13.8% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 10.7% 0.3% 10.6% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 9.0% 0.3% 8.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 8.0% 0.3% 7.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 6.8% 0.2% 6.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 2.3% 0.2% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 1.8% 0.2% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.0 3.0 0.0
1st Round 99.6% 1.0 0.4 97.3 2.3 0.0
2nd Round 18.8% 0.2 81.2 18.6 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 3.8% 0.0 96.2 3.7 0.0
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7 0.0
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0