Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
67 Drake 41.2%   12   8 - 0 1 - 0 23 - 5 15 - 5 +8.5      +3.1 91 +5.4 45 59.0 359 +20.0 8 +14.7 4
79 Bradley 25.4%   8 - 2 1 - 0 22 - 8 14 - 6 +7.1      +5.0 55 +2.1 112 65.9 262 +9.7 63 +17.6 1
98 Northern Iowa 17.2%   6 - 4 1 - 0 19 - 11 13 - 7 +5.5      +4.3 69 +1.3 131 64.4 295 +2.0 140 +16.6 2
124 Murray St. 6.8%   5 - 4 1 - 1 15 - 13 11 - 9 +2.4      +1.3 136 +1.1 138 63.1 323 +1.2 151 -3.3 6
133 Belmont 5.4%   8 - 3 1 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 9 +1.7      +3.9 78 -2.3 244 76.8 26 +4.7 104 +12.4 5
150 Indiana St. 3.8%   6 - 4 2 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 10 +0.3      +3.1 90 -2.8 263 77.3 20 -0.5 175 +15.8 3
153 Illinois St. 3.2%   6 - 4 0 - 1 15 - 15 9 - 11 +0.2      +1.8 124 -1.6 218 63.4 317 +1.2 153 -10.5 9
168 Southern Illinois 2.3%   3 - 6 0 - 1 12 - 17 9 - 11 -0.6      -2.0 231 +1.4 127 69.9 155 -2.7 210 -11.1 10
194 Missouri St. 1.6%   4 - 5 0 - 1 13 - 16 8 - 12 -1.4      -1.8 226 +0.4 153 66.8 238 -0.9 181 -17.9 12
199 Illinois-Chicago 1.5%   5 - 4 0 - 1 13 - 15 8 - 12 -1.6      -0.9 194 -0.8 193 72.5 89 +2.5 131 -12.7 11
226 Valparaiso 0.6%   5 - 5 0 - 1 12 - 17 7 - 13 -3.5      -0.4 181 -3.1 276 71.0 122 -2.9 215 -9.7 7
290 Evansville 0.1%   2 - 8 0 - 1 7 - 23 5 - 15 -6.8      -4.5 299 -2.3 245 70.0 153 -9.9 318 -9.8 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Drake 2.0 52.6 23.8 11.3 5.9 3.0 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bradley 2.6 32.9 27.1 17.1 9.7 5.7 3.4 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northern Iowa 3.4 19.4 22.3 20.1 13.4 9.3 6.2 4.0 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1
Murray St. 5.5 4.2 8.4 12.4 14.5 14.8 12.7 10.6 8.4 6.5 4.2 2.5 0.8
Belmont 5.1 4.9 10.1 14.2 15.8 14.2 12.0 9.7 7.6 5.3 3.6 1.9 0.6
Indiana St. 5.6 3.3 7.4 11.3 13.8 14.5 13.6 11.9 9.4 7.2 4.5 2.2 0.8
Illinois St. 6.9 1.4 3.7 6.3 9.4 11.5 12.5 12.8 12.2 11.3 9.5 6.4 3.2
Southern Illinois 7.4 0.7 2.6 5.3 8.1 10.1 10.9 12.3 12.3 12.6 11.0 9.2 5.0
Missouri St. 7.9 0.6 1.9 3.7 6.0 8.0 10.2 11.7 12.8 13.4 12.9 11.6 7.3
Illinois-Chicago 8.1 0.4 1.4 3.1 5.4 7.5 9.5 11.3 12.6 13.6 14.2 12.7 8.1
Valparaiso 9.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.0 4.8 6.4 8.9 11.1 13.8 16.4 18.6 14.6
Evansville 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.4 3.9 5.8 8.9 14.1 22.0 40.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Drake 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.2 5.5 8.4 12.2 15.2 16.4 16.2 11.6 6.4 1.9
Bradley 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.8 6.3 9.2 12.7 14.8 15.4 14.0 10.7 6.3 2.6 0.6
Northern Iowa 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.5 4.4 7.0 10.0 12.6 14.2 14.3 12.7 9.8 6.3 3.0 1.1 0.2
Murray St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.7 6.3 9.1 12.0 13.8 14.5 12.8 10.4 7.2 4.2 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
Belmont 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.3 8.1 11.0 13.2 14.3 13.7 11.3 8.2 5.6 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Indiana St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 3.9 7.1 10.3 13.2 14.5 14.2 12.5 9.4 6.2 3.5 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Illinois St. 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.8 5.2 8.1 11.1 13.2 14.2 13.3 11.1 8.4 5.4 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Southern Illinois 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.0 6.9 9.7 12.6 13.8 13.2 12.2 9.6 7.1 4.2 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Missouri St. 8 - 12 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.0 5.5 8.7 11.5 13.3 14.0 13.3 10.7 7.8 5.0 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 8 - 12 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.4 6.1 9.5 12.1 14.2 14.0 12.9 10.0 7.0 4.6 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 7 - 13 0.2 1.0 3.2 6.4 9.7 12.7 14.5 14.5 12.7 9.8 6.7 4.3 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Evansville 5 - 15 1.4 5.2 9.8 14.3 16.1 16.1 13.0 10.0 6.2 4.0 2.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Drake 52.6% 40.3 10.4 1.6 0.2 0.0
Bradley 32.9% 22.4 8.7 1.6 0.2 0.0
Northern Iowa 19.4% 12.1 5.8 1.3 0.2 0.0
Murray St. 4.2% 2.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Belmont 4.9% 2.4 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Indiana St. 3.3% 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Illinois St. 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Southern Illinois 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Missouri St. 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Evansville 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Drake 41.2% 33.2% 8.0% 12   0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.5 2.8 4.9 16.9 10.5 0.3 0.0 58.8 11.9%
Bradley 25.4% 24.3% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.0 7.6 13.3 2.1 0.2 0.0 74.6 1.5%
Northern Iowa 17.2% 17.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.6 9.8 3.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 82.8 0.2%
Murray St. 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.3 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 93.2 0.0%
Belmont 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.5 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 94.6 0.0%
Indiana St. 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 96.2 0.0%
Illinois St. 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 96.8 0.0%
Southern Illinois 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 97.7 0.0%
Missouri St. 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 98.4 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 98.5 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.4 0.0%
Evansville 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Drake 41.2% 4.5% 38.9% 14.2% 4.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Bradley 25.4% 0.8% 25.0% 6.8% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 17.2% 0.1% 17.1% 3.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 6.8% 0.1% 6.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 5.4% 0.0% 5.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 3.8% 0.1% 3.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 3.2% 0.0% 3.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 2.3% 0.2% 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 1.6% 0.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 1.5% 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 90.8 9.1 0.0
1st Round 99.8% 1.1 0.2 93.4 6.4 0.0
2nd Round 27.0% 0.3 73.0 26.4 0.6
Sweet Sixteen 7.4% 0.1 92.6 7.4 0.0
Elite Eight 1.7% 0.0 98.3 1.7 0.0
Final Four 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0