Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
87 Northern Iowa 22.4%   12   6 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 9 13 - 7 +5.9      +0.3 152 +5.6 41 60.9 356 +8.9 70 0.0 1
88 Belmont 21.1%   7 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 9 13 - 7 +5.8      +2.5 111 +3.3 80 75.2 50 +6.8 86 0.0 1
101 Illinois St. 16.4%   6 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 10 13 - 7 +4.8      +2.9 98 +2.0 113 67.3 249 +5.5 102 0.0 1
113 Murray St. 12.0%   6 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 12 12 - 8 +3.7      +3.6 86 +0.1 167 78.0 25 +3.9 118 0.0 1
124 Bradley 9.3%   5 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 13 11 - 9 +2.9      +0.6 147 +2.3 104 67.4 242 -0.1 175 0.0 1
128 Drake 8.9%   4 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 9 +2.5      +0.9 142 +1.5 124 63.0 334 -2.0 200 0.0 1
142 Southern Illinois 6.6%   4 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 15 10 - 10 +1.3      +1.0 139 +0.3 159 70.7 155 +1.0 156 0.0 1
196 Indiana St. 1.6%   3 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 12 -2.4      -3.3 254 +0.9 138 78.9 16 -4.0 231 0.0 1
204 Illinois-Chicago 1.5%   3 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 13 -2.7      -2.1 225 -0.6 186 72.0 122 -7.6 281 0.0 1
214 Valparaiso 1.1%   5 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 18 7 - 13 -3.3      -3.8 272 +0.6 150 66.0 274 -1.6 195 0.0 1
279 Evansville 0.2%   2 - 5 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 15 -6.5      -5.6 322 -1.0 198 66.9 258 -6.4 268 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Dec 2 83 Marquette 75 214 Valparaiso 72   
Tue, Dec 2 124 Bradley 64 158 Washington St. 60   
Tue, Dec 2 327 Morehead St. 52 113 Murray St. 84   
Tue, Dec 2 128 Drake 108 361 Western Illinois 57   
Wed, Dec 3 88 Belmont 76 104 Richmond 84   
Wed, Dec 3 93 High Point 84 142 Southern Illinois 86   
Wed, Dec 3 316 Ball St. 52 279 Evansville 64   
Wed, Dec 3 358 Arkansas Pine Bluff 63 204 Illinois-Chicago 62   
Wed, Dec 3 258 Eastern Kentucky 78 101 Illinois St. 89   
Fri, Dec 5 128 Drake 69 112 UAB 74   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 6 87 Northern Iowa 67 97 Wichita St. 63 65%   
Sat, Dec 6 279 Evansville 67 123 Western Kentucky 80 87%   
Sat, Dec 6 292 Bellarmine 74 113 Murray St. 88 90%   
Sat, Dec 6 124 Bradley 81 330 Northern Illinois 66 92%   
Sat, Dec 6 350 Chicago St. 65 101 Illinois St. 84 96%   
Sun, Dec 7 88 Belmont 78 138 Middle Tennessee 77 55%   
Sun, Dec 7 204 Illinois-Chicago 70 73 Yale 84 89%   
Sun, Dec 7 196 Indiana St. 84 317 Southern Indiana 75 81%   
Wed, Dec 10 142 Southern Illinois 76 239 Tennessee Martin 67 80%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Northern Iowa 3.1 30.4 20.0 14.9 11.4 8.6 6.0 4.1 2.8 1.3 0.6 0.1
Belmont 3.1 28.9 20.7 15.4 11.6 8.6 6.3 4.1 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2
Illinois St. 3.6 21.9 18.0 15.7 13.1 10.2 8.3 5.5 3.8 2.3 1.0 0.3
Murray St. 4.2 14.8 14.7 14.7 13.8 12.2 10.8 8.2 5.5 3.3 1.5 0.5
Bradley 4.7 10.6 12.8 13.4 13.2 13.8 11.6 9.9 7.0 4.4 2.4 0.8
Drake 4.9 9.3 11.4 12.5 13.3 13.1 12.5 10.5 8.0 5.4 2.9 1.1
Southern Illinois 5.6 6.1 8.0 9.9 11.4 12.3 13.5 13.0 11.0 7.9 5.2 1.7
Indiana St. 7.7 1.1 1.9 3.8 5.0 7.0 9.8 11.8 16.5 16.9 15.9 10.3
Illinois-Chicago 7.9 0.9 1.9 3.0 4.3 6.4 9.3 11.8 15.1 17.6 17.7 12.0
Valparaiso 8.2 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.3 5.6 8.0 11.2 15.2 18.2 20.2 14.0
Evansville 9.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.9 5.2 9.3 14.4 23.6 41.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Northern Iowa 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.5 6.6 8.9 11.4 12.8 14.1 13.0 10.4 7.1 4.0 1.6 0.4
Belmont 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.2 6.8 9.0 12.0 13.3 14.2 12.9 9.9 6.9 4.1 1.4 0.2
Illinois St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 3.8 5.9 8.6 11.0 12.8 13.3 12.9 11.0 8.2 4.9 2.3 0.9 0.2
Murray St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.7 5.7 8.2 10.9 12.6 13.4 13.0 11.0 8.0 5.5 3.0 1.2 0.4 0.1
Bradley 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.9 4.9 7.1 9.7 12.0 13.4 12.9 12.0 9.1 6.5 3.8 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0
Drake 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.7 5.5 8.0 10.5 12.2 13.0 12.7 10.8 8.4 5.9 3.5 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
Southern Illinois 10 - 10 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.4 5.7 8.2 10.3 12.0 13.1 12.1 10.6 8.7 6.0 3.9 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Indiana St. 8 - 12 0.2 0.7 2.2 4.4 7.5 10.5 12.6 13.4 12.4 10.8 9.1 6.7 4.6 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 7 - 13 0.2 0.9 2.6 5.4 8.4 11.6 12.9 13.0 11.9 10.9 8.2 5.7 3.9 2.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Valparaiso 7 - 13 0.2 1.1 3.4 6.3 9.8 12.2 13.6 13.8 12.3 9.6 7.2 4.8 3.0 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Evansville 5 - 15 1.9 5.9 11.2 14.3 16.0 14.4 12.4 9.4 6.3 4.0 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northern Iowa 30.4% 20.8 7.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Belmont 28.9% 19.7 7.1 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Illinois St. 21.9% 14.0 6.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Murray St. 14.8% 8.9 4.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Bradley 10.6% 6.1 3.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Drake 9.3% 5.3 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
Southern Illinois 6.1% 3.3 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Indiana St. 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Evansville 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northern Iowa 22.4% 21.8% 0.6% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 6.0 11.5 3.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 77.6 0.8%
Belmont 21.1% 20.8% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 5.0 10.6 3.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 78.9 0.3%
Illinois St. 16.4% 16.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.9 8.2 4.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 83.6 0.1%
Murray St. 12.0% 11.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.7 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.1 88.0 0.1%
Bradley 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 3.7 3.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 90.7 0.0%
Drake 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.4 1.5 0.5 0.2 91.1 0.0%
Southern Illinois 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.3 0.9 0.5 0.3 93.4 0.0%
Indiana St. 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 98.4 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 98.5 0.0%
Valparaiso 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 99.0 0.0%
Evansville 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Northern Iowa 22.4% 0.5% 22.1% 4.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 21.1% 0.2% 21.0% 3.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 16.4% 0.1% 16.4% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 12.0% 0.1% 11.9% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 9.3% 0.1% 9.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 8.9% 0.1% 8.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 6.6% 0.2% 6.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 1.6% 0.2% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 1.5% 0.3% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 1.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.9 1.1
1st Round 99.6% 1.0 0.4 99.0 0.7
2nd Round 15.3% 0.2 84.7 15.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.8% 0.0 97.2 2.8 0.0
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.4
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0