Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
66 Drake 100.0%   12   28 - 3 17 - 3 28 - 3 17 - 3 +8.2      +3.8 78 +4.4 65 53.0 364 +13.7 39 +9.9 1
96 Bradley 0.0%   25 - 8 15 - 5 25 - 8 15 - 5 +5.1      +3.1 94 +2.0 114 65.2 262 +7.2 80 +7.1 2
103 Northern Iowa 0.0%   19 - 12 14 - 6 19 - 12 14 - 6 +4.0      +1.8 124 +2.2 104 63.5 300 +2.9 124 +5.5 3
128 Belmont 0.0%   21 - 11 13 - 7 21 - 11 13 - 7 +2.0      +3.3 90 -1.4 212 75.5 25 +4.0 111 +3.8 4
136 Illinois St. 0.0%   18 - 14 10 - 10 18 - 14 10 - 10 +1.4      +3.7 80 -2.3 237 64.4 285 +1.7 138 +0.5 6
146 Murray St. 0.0%   15 - 17 9 - 11 15 - 17 9 - 11 +0.9      -0.4 191 +1.3 129 63.0 315 +0.2 161 -0.1 7
172 Illinois-Chicago 0.0%   15 - 14 10 - 10 15 - 14 10 - 10 -0.7      -0.2 186 -0.5 187 71.8 73 +1.1 148 +0.7 5
195 Southern Illinois 0.0%   12 - 19 8 - 12 12 - 19 8 - 12 -1.8      -0.5 192 -1.3 211 69.1 141 -2.3 198 -2.2 10
196 Indiana St. 0.0%   12 - 18 8 - 12 12 - 18 8 - 12 -1.9      +1.7 129 -3.6 276 78.6 9 -2.9 214 -1.6 8
208 Valparaiso 0.0%   13 - 19 6 - 14 13 - 19 6 - 14 -2.6      -0.6 196 -2.0 231 69.2 139 -2.7 206 -4.6 11
230 Missouri St. 0.0%   7 - 23 2 - 18 7 - 23 2 - 18 -3.7      -3.7 271 0.0 174 61.5 342 -6.9 283 -12.2 12
242 Evansville 0.0%   10 - 21 8 - 12 10 - 21 8 - 12 -4.4      -5.3 310 +0.9 146 67.1 209 -4.3 237 -1.9 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Drake 1.0 100.0
Bradley 2.0 100.0
Northern Iowa 3.0 100.0
Belmont 4.0 100.0
Illinois St. 5.0 100.0
Murray St. 7.0 100.0
Illinois-Chicago 5.0 100.0
Southern Illinois 8.0 100.0
Indiana St. 8.0 100.0
Valparaiso 11.0 100.0
Missouri St. 12.0 100.0
Evansville 8.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Drake 17 - 3 100.0
Bradley 15 - 5 100.0
Northern Iowa 14 - 6 100.0
Belmont 13 - 7 100.0
Illinois St. 10 - 10 100.0
Murray St. 9 - 11 100.0
Illinois-Chicago 10 - 10 100.0
Southern Illinois 8 - 12 100.0
Indiana St. 8 - 12 100.0
Valparaiso 6 - 14 100.0
Missouri St. 2 - 18 100.0
Evansville 8 - 12 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Drake 100.0% 100.0
Bradley
Northern Iowa
Belmont
Illinois St.
Murray St.
Illinois-Chicago
Southern Illinois
Indiana St.
Valparaiso
Missouri St.
Evansville


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Drake 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 12   0.0 1.4 50.1 48.4 0.0
Bradley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Northern Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Belmont 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Murray St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Drake 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 23.0% 5.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.0 100.0
2nd Round 23.0% 0.2 77.0 23.0
Sweet Sixteen 5.1% 0.1 94.9 5.1
Elite Eight 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0