Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
82 Belmont 28.3%   12   16 - 3 7 - 2 +7.2      +5.2 67 +2.0 110 73.1 73 +8.8 66 +7.4 2
90 Illinois St. 22.7%   13 - 6 6 - 3 +6.4      +3.0 100 +3.3 85 66.4 255 +4.0 105 +3.5 4
97 Murray St. 19.0%   16 - 4 8 - 1 +5.3      +5.6 61 -0.3 177 78.6 14 +8.6 69 +10.5 1
110 Northern Iowa 9.2%   11 - 8 4 - 5 +3.8      -3.2 266 +7.0 29 59.3 365 +2.4 125 -0.2 8
119 Bradley 9.0%   13 - 7 7 - 3 +2.7      +1.3 131 +1.4 125 69.0 179 +3.3 111 +6.5 3
146 Southern Illinois 2.6%   7 - 12 2 - 7 +0.9      -2.4 233 +3.3 86 72.2 91 -1.7 199 -4.0 9
151 Illinois-Chicago 3.8%   8 - 10 5 - 4 +0.5      -1.2 202 +1.8 113 67.3 229 -1.9 204 +3.5 5
158 Drake 2.8%   8 - 10 4 - 5 +0.1      -0.1 169 +0.2 160 66.2 261 -1.2 187 +1.4 7
167 Valparaiso 2.0%   9 - 10 4 - 5 -0.8      -2.2 228 +1.4 123 65.8 273 -0.4 170 +2.1 6
188 Indiana St. 0.9%   7 - 11 2 - 7 -1.8      -1.1 195 -0.7 192 72.7 80 -3.2 218 -4.1 10
271 Evansville 0.1%   3 - 15 1 - 8 -6.1      -6.4 329 +0.2 159 68.8 185 -7.7 290 -8.9 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Jan 20 271 Evansville 49 151 Illinois-Chicago 76   
Wed, Jan 21 90 Illinois St. 59 110 Northern Iowa 54   
Wed, Jan 21 119 Bradley 75 188 Indiana St. 68   
Wed, Jan 21 158 Drake 101 97 Murray St. 90   
Wed, Jan 21 146 Southern Illinois 63 167 Valparaiso 69   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Jan 24 82 Belmont 78 90 Illinois St. 74 65%   
Sat, Jan 24 97 Murray St. 70 110 Northern Iowa 71 56%   
Sat, Jan 24 119 Bradley 74 151 Illinois-Chicago 69 69%   
Sat, Jan 24 158 Drake 74 188 Indiana St. 75 54%   
Sun, Jan 25 271 Evansville 68 146 Southern Illinois 72 65%   
Tue, Jan 27 188 Indiana St. 71 151 Illinois-Chicago 76 70%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Belmont 1.9 50.4 27.4 13.0 6.0 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Illinois St. 2.9 18.7 24.6 24.9 17.2 8.2 3.9 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
Murray St. 2.0 45.3 28.5 14.9 7.3 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Northern Iowa 5.4 1.1 4.8 10.1 16.3 21.6 18.7 13.3 8.1 4.5 1.4 0.1
Bradley 3.6 9.0 17.9 24.8 22.4 12.9 7.1 3.9 1.7 0.5 0.0
Southern Illinois 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 6.4 10.5 14.7 20.2 24.2 17.5 3.1
Illinois-Chicago 5.6 1.2 4.2 9.1 14.5 19.4 19.1 14.9 10.1 5.5 2.1 0.1
Drake 6.6 0.2 1.3 4.0 8.8 15.1 17.2 18.3 17.6 12.8 4.4 0.3
Valparaiso 6.8 0.2 1.1 3.5 7.7 13.1 16.9 19.6 18.1 13.5 5.7 0.6
Indiana St. 8.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.7 5.4 8.7 14.0 21.7 38.9 7.5
Evansville 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 4.4 16.6 76.7

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Belmont 14 - 6 23 - 7 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.5 8.0 15.3 21.7 23.0 17.4 8.2 1.7
Illinois St. 13 - 7 20 - 10 0.1 0.6 2.2 5.9 12.9 19.2 22.1 19.1 12.1 4.8 1.0
Murray St. 14 - 6 22 - 9 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.3 10.3 16.7 21.6 20.7 14.8 7.3 2.4 0.3
Northern Iowa 10 - 10 17 - 13 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.3 10.1 16.8 21.7 20.4 14.9 7.5 2.3 0.3
Bradley 12 - 8 18 - 12 0.2 1.4 5.0 10.7 18.3 22.1 20.3 13.3 6.3 2.1 0.4
Southern Illinois 8 - 12 13 - 17 0.1 0.7 2.8 7.6 14.3 19.8 21.7 17.0 10.6 4.3 1.0 0.2
Illinois-Chicago 10 - 10 13 - 16 0.3 1.8 5.7 12.1 18.6 21.0 18.7 12.5 6.4 2.3 0.5 0.1
Drake 9 - 11 13 - 16 0.1 1.3 5.1 11.3 18.8 22.1 19.4 12.9 6.3 2.1 0.6 0.0
Valparaiso 9 - 11 14 - 16 0.2 1.8 5.9 13.0 19.6 21.3 18.6 11.7 5.4 1.8 0.4 0.0
Indiana St. 7 - 13 12 - 17 0.6 3.5 9.0 16.0 20.0 20.4 15.7 9.2 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.0
Evansville 4 - 16 6 - 23 6.3 17.9 26.1 23.1 15.0 7.6 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 50.4% 34.3 13.0 2.6 0.4 0.0 0.0
Illinois St. 18.7% 9.5 6.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
Murray St. 45.3% 30.2 12.1 2.6 0.4 0.0 0.0
Northern Iowa 1.1% 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bradley 9.0% 3.6 3.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 1.2% 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Drake 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Indiana St.
Evansville


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 28.3% 28.1% 0.3% 12   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 10.3 16.4 1.2 0.0 71.7 0.4%
Illinois St. 22.7% 22.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 3.2 14.8 4.2 0.3 0.0 77.3 0.0%
Murray St. 19.0% 18.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 4.2 12.7 1.9 0.1 81.0 0.1%
Northern Iowa 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.3 4.7 3.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 90.8 0.0%
Bradley 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 4.0 3.8 0.9 0.1 91.0 0.0%
Southern Illinois 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 97.4 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.5 96.2 0.0%
Drake 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.3 97.2 0.0%
Valparaiso 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 98.0 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 99.1 0.0%
Evansville 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.7 0.3
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 99.6 0.1
2nd Round 12.9% 0.1 87.1 12.9
Sweet Sixteen 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Belmont 28.3% 0.3% 28.2% 5.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 22.7% 0.0% 22.7% 3.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 19.0% 0.1% 19.0% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 9.2% 0.0% 9.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 9.0% 0.0% 9.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 2.6% 0.3% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 3.8% 0.2% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 2.8% 0.2% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 2.0% 0.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.9% 0.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%