Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -14.1 #356
Expected Predictive Rating -20.2 #360
Pace 64.4 #299
Improvement +0.4 #169

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #360 F D C D D-
Defense #305 D- F D- D+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #175 0.92 #362 -4.6 #327
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #28 0.67 #298 +2.5 #62
Three Pointers 31% #346 0.85 #344 -7.7 #354
1st FG Attempt 0.82 #364 -9.7 #364
Freethrows 16.3 #240 67% #331 11.0 #277
Second Chance 26.9% #286 0.97 #274 0.26 #298
Turnovers 16.6% #187
Total Offense -9.6 #360

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #51 1.27 #313 -5.4 #344
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #289 0.72 #115 +1.9 #54
Three Pointers 40% #228 1.07 #263 -0.4 #194
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #306 -3.9 #304
Freethrows 18.9 #271 74% #233 14.0 #284
Second Chance 34.1% #312 1.15 #300 0.39 #328
Turnovers 13.8% #325
Total Defense -4.5 #305

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.5% #323 1.6% #321
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -16.9% #363 6.3% #297
Possession Length 19.7 #356 16.3 #35
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #349 0.25 #354
Improvement -2.7 #323 +3.1 #32

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 76.8% 54.4% 85.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Indiana (Away) - 26.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 50 - 6
Quad 44 - 174 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 253 @Radford L 75 - 80 13% -5  0 - 1 -7 +9 D- A+ C- -16 F F F
 Fri, Nov 7 23 @Iowa L 58 - 77 1% -10  0 - 2 +0 +2 D- C- C -3 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 299 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 58 - 74 19% -7  0 - 3 -21 -14 D- F F -8 F B- C-
 Fri, Nov 14 142 @California Baptist L 59 - 69 6% -6  0 - 4 -6 -4 D+ F B+ -3 B+ B+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 252 Coastal Carolina L 64 - 84 28% -13  0 - 5 -28 -14 F B D+ -13 F F C+
 Sun, Nov 23 297 North Dakota L 69 - 78 38% +1  0 - 6 -20 -14 F D F -6 F B+ B+
 Tue, Dec 2 158 @Drake L 57 - 108 6% -26  0 - 7 -48 -9 F F B+ -44 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 13 297 @North Dakota W 69 - 66 OT 19% +1  1 - 7 -2 -10 F A+ D +8 A+ F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 237 @Lindenwood L 76 - 92 12% -13  1 - 8 0 - 1 -17 -1 D C- B+ -15 F F D-
 Mon, Dec 22 257 SIU Edwardsville L 61 - 66 28% +3  1 - 9 0 - 2 -13 -13 D- F F +0 A- F A+
 Thu, Jan 1 226 @Tennessee Martin L 60 - 67 11% +15  1 - 10 0 - 3 -8 -5 B F F -3 C+ B F
 Sat, Jan 3 245 @Southeast Missouri St. L 50 - 73 13% -9  1 - 11 0 - 4 -25 -18 F F F -8 D- F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 241 Tennessee St. L 68 - 90 26% -14  1 - 12 0 - 5 -29 -11 F F B+ -18 F F C
 Sat, Jan 10 342 Tennessee Tech L 54 - 59 52% +2  1 - 13 0 - 6 -20 -19 F F F -1 C B- D
 Tue, Jan 13 310 @Eastern Illinois L 55 - 57 21% -4  1 - 14 0 - 7 -8 -13 F D+ D +5 A+ C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 282 @Arkansas Little Rock L 79 - 86 17% -6  1 - 15 0 - 8 -11 +7 F D A+ -18 F D+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 302 @Morehead St. L 66 - 71 20% -1  1 - 16 0 - 9 -10 -5 F C A+ -5 B F D
 Fri, Jan 23 329 @Southern Indiana L 63 - 69 27%
 Thu, Jan 29 245 Southeast Missouri St. L 66 - 72 27%
 Sat, Jan 31 226 Tennessee Martin L 61 - 68 25%
 Thu, Feb 5 342 @Tennessee Tech L 66 - 72 30%
 Sat, Feb 7 241 @Tennessee St. L 66 - 79 12%
 Tue, Feb 10 310 Eastern Illinois L 62 - 64 41%
 Thu, Feb 12 282 Arkansas Little Rock L 66 - 70 34%
 Thu, Feb 19 329 Southern Indiana L 65 - 66 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 302 Morehead St. L 67 - 70 40%
 Thu, Feb 26 257 @SIU Edwardsville L 58 - 70 14%
 Sat, Feb 28 237 Lindenwood L 68 - 75 26%
Totals 4 - 24 3 - 17 -14 -10 F D C -4 D- F D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 3.9 3.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 11.7 9th
10th 0.5 4.9 9.3 6.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 23.9 10th
11th 3.4 11.8 19.6 18.0 8.6 1.8 0.2 63.4 11th
Total 3.4 11.8 20.1 23.1 19.6 12.4 6.3 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0
9-11 0.2% 0.2
8-12 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
7-13 2.4% 2.4
6-14 6.3% 6.3
5-15 12.4% 12.4
4-16 19.6% 19.6
3-17 23.1% 23.1
2-18 20.1% 20.1
1-19 11.8% 11.8
0-20 3.4% 3.4
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.4%