Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
243 Arkansas Little Rock 22.2%   16   5 - 5 1 - 0 17 - 12 13 - 7 -4.7      -5.8 332 +1.1 139 69.2 170 -1.0 183 +6.5 1
269 SIU Edwardsville 15.4%   4 - 5 0 - 1 15 - 13 11 - 9 -5.7      -5.3 324 -0.4 180 66.8 237 -3.6 231 -16.9 7
281 Morehead St. 13.2%   3 - 6 1 - 0 14 - 14 12 - 8 -6.6      -3.6 277 -3.0 269 64.6 288 -5.9 267 +2.9 3
282 Southern Indiana 13.4%   4 - 5 1 - 0 14 - 14 11 - 9 -6.7      -3.6 278 -3.1 271 69.7 158 -4.2 238 +3.5 2
289 Southeast Missouri St. 12.7%   3 - 6 1 - 0 13 - 15 11 - 9 -6.8      -5.1 317 -1.7 227 72.1 94 -5.4 257 +2.8 4
316 Tennessee St. 5.8%   1 - 8 0 - 1 10 - 18 9 - 11 -8.7      -5.0 312 -3.7 290 75.9 33 -16.0 354 -18.9 9
324 Tennessee Martin 4.7%   1 - 8 0 - 1 10 - 18 9 - 11 -9.3      -5.7 330 -3.5 284 71.0 121 -13.2 341 -18.8 8
327 Eastern Illinois 4.0%   1 - 8 0 - 1 10 - 18 9 - 11 -9.4      -6.1 339 -3.4 283 66.6 242 -12.4 332 -19.0 10
328 Tennessee Tech 4.1%   4 - 7 1 - 1 12 - 17 9 - 11 -9.5      -3.9 290 -5.6 339 67.6 219 -7.9 301 -8.2 6
331 Western Illinois 3.7%   4 - 5 1 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 11 -10.0      -5.0 316 -5.0 324 61.9 344 -6.0 272 +2.7 5
351 Lindenwood 0.9%   2 - 7 0 - 1 8 - 20 6 - 14 -12.4      -7.2 350 -5.2 329 69.1 176 -13.4 343 -27.7 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Arkansas Little Rock 3.0 33.9 19.9 13.5 9.9 7.3 5.5 4.0 2.6 1.7 1.1 0.5
SIU Edwardsville 4.2 17.1 16.2 14.2 12.4 10.1 8.4 6.9 5.5 4.4 3.0 1.8
Morehead St. 4.1 19.3 15.6 13.8 11.8 10.4 8.6 7.0 5.5 4.1 2.8 1.2
Southern Indiana 4.3 17.3 15.3 13.5 11.9 10.5 8.8 7.4 5.9 4.5 3.1 1.6
Southeast Missouri St. 4.4 16.8 14.6 13.4 11.9 10.7 9.0 7.8 6.1 4.8 3.5 1.6
Tennessee St. 6.3 5.0 7.2 8.4 9.5 10.4 10.5 11.1 10.6 10.2 9.7 7.3
Tennessee Martin 6.6 4.0 6.1 7.4 8.5 9.7 10.6 11.0 11.2 11.5 11.0 8.9
Eastern Illinois 6.8 3.8 5.6 7.1 8.2 9.6 10.1 10.7 11.7 12.0 11.5 9.7
Tennessee Tech 6.4 4.0 6.0 7.8 8.9 10.3 11.3 12.1 12.3 11.7 9.7 5.8
Western Illinois 6.7 4.1 5.5 7.0 8.2 9.0 10.4 11.2 12.0 11.9 11.7 9.0
Lindenwood 8.8 0.6 1.3 2.0 3.0 4.3 5.7 7.5 10.1 13.2 19.5 32.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Arkansas Little Rock 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.8 5.3 7.9 10.2 12.4 13.8 13.8 11.7 9.0 5.8 2.8 1.0 0.2
SIU Edwardsville 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.1 6.7 8.9 11.4 12.9 13.3 12.7 10.4 7.3 4.5 2.2 0.8 0.2
Morehead St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.1 6.5 8.9 11.2 13.2 12.9 12.1 10.4 7.7 5.0 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.1
Southern Indiana 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.5 6.9 9.5 11.8 12.8 12.9 12.0 9.5 7.3 4.5 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.8 4.9 7.3 9.7 11.9 13.1 12.6 11.7 9.2 7.2 4.1 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1
Tennessee St. 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.0 5.1 7.9 10.3 12.1 12.9 12.8 11.1 9.0 6.3 3.9 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Martin 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.9 6.1 8.6 11.2 12.7 13.3 12.2 10.1 7.8 5.5 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Eastern Illinois 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.1 6.4 9.2 11.6 13.1 12.5 12.1 9.7 7.7 5.1 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Tech 9 - 11 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.8 5.0 8.3 11.3 13.6 14.2 13.3 11.0 8.2 5.4 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Western Illinois 9 - 11 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.6 6.7 9.3 12.0 13.1 13.1 12.0 9.7 7.3 5.1 2.9 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Lindenwood 6 - 14 0.5 1.9 4.7 8.4 11.1 13.4 14.5 12.9 10.9 8.6 5.8 3.6 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arkansas Little Rock 33.9% 23.6 7.9 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 17.1% 10.4 4.9 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Morehead St. 19.3% 12.6 5.0 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Southern Indiana 17.3% 10.9 4.8 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 16.8% 10.7 4.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tennessee St. 5.0% 2.6 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Martin 4.0% 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Illinois 3.8% 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Tech 4.0% 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Illinois 4.1% 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0
Lindenwood 0.6% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas Little Rock 22.2% 22.2% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 6.0 14.0 77.8 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.7 3.1 11.3 84.6 0.0%
Morehead St. 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 11.0 86.8 0.0%
Southern Indiana 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.1 10.9 86.6 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 10.7 87.3 0.0%
Tennessee St. 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.6 94.2 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.6 95.3 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 3.8 96.0 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.9 95.9 0.0%
Western Illinois 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.5 96.3 0.0%
Lindenwood 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 99.1 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas Little Rock 22.2% 7.7% 18.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 15.4% 6.9% 11.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 13.2% 7.7% 9.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 13.4% 7.5% 9.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 12.7% 7.9% 8.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 5.8% 5.1% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 4.7% 4.1% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 4.0% 3.4% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 4.1% 3.3% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 3.7% 2.8% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 70.3% 0.7 29.7 70.3
2nd Round 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0