Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
203 Tennessee Martin 32.2%   16   14 - 5 9 - 2 -2.6      -3.6 264 +1.0 137 64.8 288 +1.7 136 +0.9 1
230 Tennessee St. 19.5%   11 - 7 8 - 3 -3.9      -1.7 207 -2.2 250 74.9 37 -0.6 173 -2.0 2
238 Southeast Missouri St. 11.7%   10 - 10 8 - 4 -4.3      -3.7 265 -0.6 190 72.6 80 -5.2 246 -4.6 5
240 Lindenwood 16.7%   11 - 9 8 - 4 -4.4      -4.5 291 +0.1 156 79.3 8 -3.5 218 -3.6 4
252 SIU Edwardsville 9.4%   11 - 9 7 - 5 -5.3      -6.5 335 +1.2 133 62.2 342 -6.0 260 -6.1 7
292 Arkansas Little Rock 4.3%   7 - 13 6 - 5 -7.6      -3.4 263 -4.2 298 66.5 241 -7.3 287 -5.7 6
299 Morehead St. 5.0%   9 - 11 8 - 4 -8.0      -2.2 230 -5.8 335 64.9 286 -5.6 254 -3.3 3
321 Eastern Illinois 0.8%   6 - 14 5 - 7 -9.9      -9.0 355 -0.9 204 65.3 268 -9.4 318 -9.0 8
332 Southern Indiana 0.1%   3 - 17 2 - 10 -10.6      -9.8 359 -0.9 200 70.0 147 -17.1 356 -17.7 10
333 Tennessee Tech 0.2%   5 - 14 3 - 8 -10.7      -5.8 323 -4.9 315 69.4 166 -11.5 335 -13.3 9
362 Western Illinois 0.0%   1 - 19 0 - 12 -16.2      -10.3 360 -5.9 337 65.1 279 -21.1 363 -23.1 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Jan 29 299 Morehead St. 67 252 SIU Edwardsville 65   
Thu, Jan 29 292 Arkansas Little Rock 63 230 Tennessee St. 70   
Thu, Jan 29 238 Southeast Missouri St. 78 362 Western Illinois 74   
Thu, Jan 29 321 Eastern Illinois 68 203 Tennessee Martin 76   
Thu, Jan 29 240 Lindenwood 73 332 Southern Indiana 60   
Sat, Jan 31 240 Lindenwood 79 299 Morehead St. 78   
Sat, Jan 31 252 SIU Edwardsville 58 332 Southern Indiana 46   
Sat, Jan 31 292 Arkansas Little Rock 77 333 Tennessee Tech 87   
Sat, Jan 31 321 Eastern Illinois 59 238 Southeast Missouri St. 77   
Sat, Jan 31 203 Tennessee Martin 84 362 Western Illinois 44   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Feb 2 230 Tennessee St. 82 333 Tennessee Tech 73 82%   
Tue, Feb 3 240 Lindenwood 71 252 SIU Edwardsville 67 65%   
Tue, Feb 3 292 Arkansas Little Rock 65 203 Tennessee Martin 73 78%   
Thu, Feb 5 240 Lindenwood 77 292 Arkansas Little Rock 76 51%   
Thu, Feb 5 299 Morehead St. 71 238 Southeast Missouri St. 77 74%   
Thu, Feb 5 321 Eastern Illinois 67 230 Tennessee St. 76 80%   
Thu, Feb 5 332 Southern Indiana 61 203 Tennessee Martin 72 85%   
Thu, Feb 5 333 Tennessee Tech 74 362 Western Illinois 66 79%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Tennessee Martin 1.4 75.4 14.3 5.8 2.5 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
Tennessee St. 2.6 22.5 35.8 19.4 11.2 6.5 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 4.1 4.3 15.2 20.4 20.7 17.4 13.8 7.4 0.8 0.0
Lindenwood 3.1 15.5 27.5 21.2 15.4 9.9 6.7 3.3 0.5
SIU Edwardsville 4.6 3.5 10.7 15.5 17.7 18.1 18.5 13.0 2.8 0.1
Arkansas Little Rock 5.5 2.1 5.5 9.4 12.1 15.3 18.8 27.0 9.0 0.8 0.0
Morehead St. 4.2 5.3 13.4 17.5 19.2 19.1 15.2 8.9 1.4 0.0
Eastern Illinois 7.6 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.0 7.1 19.4 53.9 13.2 1.1
Southern Indiana 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 6.0 27.8 60.9 4.6
Tennessee Tech 8.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 3.5 21.1 57.3 16.4 0.7
Western Illinois 10.8 0.1 2.0 12.3 85.7

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Tennessee Martin 15 - 5 20 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.7 9.8 18.9 25.1 23.7 13.6 4.2
Tennessee St. 13 - 6 16 - 10 0.2 1.8 6.9 17.5 25.8 27.1 16.1 4.7
Southeast Missouri St. 12 - 7 14 - 13 0.3 2.3 10.1 21.8 29.4 23.9 10.1 2.0
Lindenwood 13 - 7 16 - 12 0.1 0.9 4.7 12.2 21.7 25.8 21.4 10.5 2.7
SIU Edwardsville 12 - 8 16 - 12 0.2 1.4 6.3 15.7 25.2 25.7 17.4 6.7 1.4
Arkansas Little Rock 11 - 9 12 - 17 0.3 1.9 6.7 14.4 22.0 23.5 18.0 9.6 3.1 0.5
Morehead St. 12 - 8 13 - 15 0.4 4.0 12.6 23.1 26.8 20.4 9.4 2.9 0.4
Eastern Illinois 8 - 12 9 - 19 1.5 8.0 18.6 25.6 24.0 15.3 5.8 1.2 0.2
Southern Indiana 5 - 15 6 - 22 3.1 13.5 25.5 27.5 18.5 8.4 2.9 0.6 0.0
Tennessee Tech 6 - 14 8 - 20 1.4 8.6 18.9 26.6 23.2 13.9 5.7 1.6 0.3
Western Illinois 2 - 18 3 - 25 11.3 26.3 29.6 20.3 9.4 2.7 0.4 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Tennessee Martin 75.4% 57.4 13.7 3.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
Tennessee St. 22.5% 10.1 8.9 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 4.3% 1.1 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Lindenwood 15.5% 6.0 6.3 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 3.5% 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 2.1% 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1
Morehead St. 5.3% 1.6 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Eastern Illinois
Southern Indiana
Tennessee Tech
Western Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Tennessee Martin 32.2% 32.2% 0.0% 16   0.2 1.6 7.4 17.3 5.8 67.8 0.0%
Tennessee St. 19.5% 19.5% 0.0% 0.3 2.1 9.2 8.0 80.5 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 3.7 7.6 88.3 0.0%
Lindenwood 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 6.0 9.8 83.3 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.9 7.3 90.6 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 4.0 95.7 0.0%
Morehead St. 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.4 4.6 95.0 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 90.6% 0.9 9.4 90.6
2nd Round 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Tennessee Martin 32.2% 0.8% 31.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 19.5% 2.2% 18.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 11.7% 2.7% 10.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 16.7% 3.2% 15.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 9.4% 3.3% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 4.3% 3.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 5.0% 3.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%