Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
227 Arkansas Little Rock 29.8%   16   12 - 9 8 - 4 17 - 12 13 - 7 -3.5      -6.3 335 +2.8 99 68.0 193 -3.2 219 -4.5 2
265 Southeast Missouri St. 15.7%   10 - 10 8 - 4 15 - 13 13 - 7 -5.8      -4.0 282 -1.8 224 71.2 98 -5.5 254 -5.1 4
266 SIU Edwardsville 16.0%   12 - 8 8 - 4 17 - 11 13 - 7 -6.0      -5.0 309 -0.9 202 65.7 248 -4.2 234 -4.5 3
282 Morehead St. 18.0%   11 - 9 9 - 3 16 - 12 14 - 6 -6.7      -4.6 297 -2.1 232 62.4 333 -3.3 220 -1.8 1
289 Tennessee St. 6.9%   7 - 13 6 - 6 12 - 16 11 - 9 -7.0      -4.3 292 -2.7 252 75.9 30 -9.5 316 -7.9 6
298 Tennessee Tech 8.1%   10 - 11 7 - 5 15 - 14 12 - 8 -7.6      -3.5 265 -4.2 295 68.6 171 -6.2 267 -5.5 5
307 Tennessee Martin 3.3%   6 - 14 5 - 7 10 - 18 9 - 11 -8.4      -3.6 269 -4.9 313 68.1 188 -10.1 324 -9.2 7
324 Southern Indiana 1.1%   7 - 13 4 - 8 11 - 17 8 - 12 -10.0      -5.3 317 -4.6 305 68.4 176 -10.0 323 -12.3 9
332 Eastern Illinois 0.7%   5 - 15 4 - 8 8 - 20 7 - 13 -10.7      -7.7 348 -3.0 263 66.6 227 -12.8 338 -13.3 10
349 Lindenwood 0.4%   7 - 13 5 - 7 9 - 19 7 - 13 -12.4      -8.7 356 -3.7 283 71.1 100 -10.7 330 -10.9 8
354 Western Illinois 0.0%   5 - 15 2 - 10 7 - 21 4 - 16 -13.3      -6.8 339 -6.6 347 60.2 354 -13.6 343 -17.2 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Arkansas Little Rock 2.2 40.9 26.3 16.4 9.5 4.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 3.0 20.0 21.8 21.1 17.7 12.9 5.3 1.1 0.2 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 3.0 22.4 22.3 20.6 15.2 11.5 5.9 1.9 0.3 0.0
Morehead St. 2.0 47.1 23.3 14.8 9.0 4.1 1.4 0.3 0.0
Tennessee St. 5.2 1.6 4.8 9.5 16.1 21.8 25.9 14.2 4.2 1.5 0.3
Tennessee Tech 4.1 6.3 12.8 18.6 20.3 20.1 14.1 6.3 1.2 0.2 0.0
Tennessee Martin 6.5 0.1 0.9 2.7 6.4 13.0 22.6 32.0 14.4 5.7 2.0 0.2
Southern Indiana 8.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.5 6.9 16.9 30.0 22.3 18.2 2.4
Eastern Illinois 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 4.0 10.3 23.0 29.0 29.0 3.0
Lindenwood 8.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 4.9 14.1 28.3 30.7 18.1 1.7
Western Illinois 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 5.2 14.0 78.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Arkansas Little Rock 13 - 7 0.2 1.8 6.3 15.5 25.1 27.9 18.0 5.3
Southeast Missouri St. 13 - 7 0.1 1.3 5.8 15.5 24.9 25.4 18.5 7.1 1.4
SIU Edwardsville 13 - 7 0.2 1.6 5.8 14.6 22.9 26.0 18.3 8.8 1.9
Morehead St. 14 - 6 0.2 1.4 5.8 14.6 23.6 25.2 19.2 8.5 1.6
Tennessee St. 11 - 9 0.2 1.4 5.3 13.9 23.8 26.5 19.7 7.5 1.7
Tennessee Tech 12 - 8 0.1 1.3 5.9 14.0 24.4 26.5 19.3 7.2 1.3
Tennessee Martin 9 - 11 0.2 2.2 7.6 16.8 24.9 24.2 16.9 6.3 1.1
Southern Indiana 8 - 12 1.6 7.1 17.3 23.8 23.6 16.5 7.6 2.3 0.3
Eastern Illinois 7 - 13 3.7 13.2 23.6 25.6 19.4 9.9 3.8 0.8 0.0
Lindenwood 7 - 13 7.1 21.7 27.9 23.9 12.9 5.1 1.2 0.2
Western Illinois 4 - 16 7.9 23.9 31.1 23.0 10.2 3.2 0.6 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arkansas Little Rock 40.9% 22.0 13.5 4.2 1.0 0.2 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 20.0% 8.3 7.5 3.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 22.4% 10.2 7.9 3.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
Morehead St. 47.1% 27.7 14.1 4.2 1.0 0.2 0.0
Tennessee St. 1.6% 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Tech 6.3% 1.8 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Martin 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Southern Indiana
Eastern Illinois 0.0% 0.0
Lindenwood
Western Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas Little Rock 29.8% 29.8% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.1 1.3 6.4 22.0 70.3 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.7 13.8 84.3 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.0 13.8 84.0 0.0%
Morehead St. 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 16.9 82.0 0.0%
Tennessee St. 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.4 6.5 93.1 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 7.6 91.9 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.1 3.2 96.7 0.0%
Southern Indiana 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 1.1 98.9 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7 99.4 0.0%
Lindenwood 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas Little Rock 29.8% 11.3% 24.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 15.7% 8.8% 11.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 16.0% 8.6% 11.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 18.0% 12.4% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 6.9% 5.4% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 8.1% 5.5% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 3.3% 3.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 70.1% 0.7 29.9 70.1
2nd Round 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0