Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
225 Lindenwood 19.2%   16   5 - 4 2 - 0 16 - 12 13 - 7 -3.8      -3.2 253 -0.6 188 78.4 20 +0.3 161 +5.4 3
226 Tennessee St. 16.7%   4 - 4 1 - 0 15 - 10 12 - 6 -3.8      -4.7 296 +0.9 132 74.9 50 +2.2 132 +6.8 2
229 Southeast Missouri St. 14.8%   2 - 7 0 - 1 13 - 14 11 - 8 -4.1      -2.7 242 -1.3 215 74.0 65 -6.3 261 -16.9 9
240 Tennessee Tech 14.2%   3 - 6 1 - 0 14 - 13 12 - 7 -4.7      -3.0 248 -1.8 235 73.0 86 -4.5 239 +8.1 1
243 SIU Edwardsville 13.1%   4 - 5 0 - 1 15 - 13 11 - 9 -4.8      -4.6 295 -0.2 173 65.3 290 -5.6 250 -21.9 10
256 Tennessee Martin 11.4%   5 - 4 0 - 1 16 - 12 11 - 9 -5.4      -4.1 276 -1.3 214 66.0 279 +0.7 154 -16.0 8
309 Arkansas Little Rock 3.3%   2 - 9 1 - 1 10 - 19 9 - 11 -8.6      -5.0 305 -3.5 294 66.0 277 -9.4 307 -6.7 5
310 Morehead St. 4.0%   2 - 7 1 - 0 10 - 18 9 - 11 -8.6      -5.2 309 -3.4 285 70.1 167 -10.6 323 +3.6 4
325 Eastern Illinois 2.0%   2 - 8 1 - 1 9 - 19 8 - 12 -9.7      -6.9 341 -2.8 271 66.1 273 -9.5 309 -7.3 6
339 Southern Indiana 1.0%   1 - 8 0 - 1 8 - 20 7 - 13 -10.8      -7.4 347 -3.4 286 75.0 49 -16.2 351 -26.8 11
356 Western Illinois 0.3%   1 - 8 0 - 1 6 - 22 5 - 15 -13.9      -7.3 344 -6.6 348 63.1 333 -16.1 350 -16.0 7




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Dec 16 309 Arkansas Little Rock 64 310 Morehead St. 78   
Thu, Dec 18 229 Southeast Missouri St. 74 240 Tennessee Tech 85   
Thu, Dec 18 226 Tennessee St. 78 256 Tennessee Martin 71   
Thu, Dec 18 309 Arkansas Little Rock 77 339 Southern Indiana 62   
Thu, Dec 18 325 Eastern Illinois 76 243 SIU Edwardsville 72   
Thu, Dec 18 225 Lindenwood 92 356 Western Illinois 76   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 20 229 Southeast Missouri St. 74 226 Tennessee St. 77 62%   
Sat, Dec 20 240 Tennessee Tech 74 256 Tennessee Martin 70 64%   
Sat, Dec 20 310 Morehead St. 73 339 Southern Indiana 74 53%   
Mon, Dec 22 243 SIU Edwardsville 69 356 Western Illinois 63 72%   
Tue, Dec 23 225 Lindenwood 70 264 Missouri St. 71 55%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Lindenwood 3.0 34.8 18.3 13.4 10.1 7.8 5.9 4.3 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.2
Tennessee St. 3.7 20.0 18.0 15.6 13.1 10.4 8.0 6.0 4.4 2.6 1.4 0.5
Southeast Missouri St. 4.4 14.2 14.7 14.1 13.3 11.4 10.2 7.9 6.4 4.2 2.5 1.0
Tennessee Tech 4.1 17.4 16.3 14.6 12.8 11.1 9.0 7.2 5.4 3.5 1.9 0.7
SIU Edwardsville 4.5 15.1 14.4 12.9 12.4 11.5 9.8 8.2 6.6 4.9 3.0 1.2
Tennessee Martin 4.7 13.5 13.4 12.9 12.0 11.3 10.2 8.8 7.2 5.5 3.5 1.6
Arkansas Little Rock 6.4 3.9 5.5 7.5 9.0 10.8 12.0 13.6 13.5 12.3 8.5 3.5
Morehead St. 6.2 5.5 6.5 8.2 9.1 10.6 11.5 12.6 12.3 11.0 8.6 4.0
Eastern Illinois 7.2 1.9 3.4 5.1 6.7 8.7 10.4 12.7 14.6 15.7 13.3 7.6
Southern Indiana 8.4 0.9 1.7 2.5 3.7 5.0 6.9 9.0 12.8 16.4 22.4 18.7
Western Illinois 9.6 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 2.4 3.1 4.9 8.2 12.5 22.7 43.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Lindenwood 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.2 5.4 7.8 10.7 12.8 14.4 13.6 11.4 8.9 5.4 2.7 1.0 0.2
Tennessee St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.7 5.1 7.8 10.8 13.5 15.0 14.3 12.4 8.7 5.1 2.0 0.4
Southeast Missouri St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.7 4.3 7.1 9.9 12.9 14.0 14.0 12.7 9.7 6.2 3.3 1.1 0.2
Tennessee Tech 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.8 6.1 9.2 11.6 13.7 14.6 13.2 10.7 7.1 4.2 1.9 0.6 0.1
SIU Edwardsville 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.9 5.0 7.3 10.0 12.2 13.8 13.6 11.5 9.2 6.2 3.5 1.4 0.5 0.1
Tennessee Martin 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.4 5.7 8.0 10.7 12.8 13.2 13.1 11.2 8.6 5.5 3.1 1.2 0.4 0.1
Arkansas Little Rock 9 - 11 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.5 5.0 8.3 11.6 13.6 14.8 13.6 11.2 7.9 5.2 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Morehead St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.9 8.0 10.5 12.6 13.9 13.1 11.0 8.7 6.0 3.9 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Eastern Illinois 8 - 12 0.1 0.7 2.3 4.7 8.2 11.4 13.8 14.5 13.5 11.3 8.3 5.5 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Southern Indiana 7 - 13 0.3 1.3 3.3 6.9 10.2 12.6 14.0 13.5 12.0 9.5 7.0 4.4 2.8 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Western Illinois 5 - 15 1.3 4.7 9.0 13.7 15.7 15.2 13.0 10.0 7.5 4.5 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Lindenwood 34.8% 24.4 7.9 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee St. 20.0% 12.0 5.9 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 14.2% 8.1 4.3 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Tech 17.4% 10.4 5.0 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 15.1% 9.0 4.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Martin 13.5% 7.9 3.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 3.9% 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Morehead St. 5.5% 2.9 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Illinois 1.9% 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Southern Indiana 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Western Illinois 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Lindenwood 19.2% 19.2% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 7.6 8.6 80.8 0.0%
Tennessee St. 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 7.7 5.0 83.3 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.1 4.7 8.7 85.3 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 14.2% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 4.1 9.1 85.8 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.7 8.6 86.9 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.8 5.2 88.6 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.1 96.7 0.0%
Morehead St. 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.7 96.0 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.9 98.0 0.0%
Southern Indiana 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 99.0 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Lindenwood 19.2% 3.0% 17.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 16.7% 1.4% 16.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 14.8% 4.0% 13.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 14.2% 4.1% 12.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 13.1% 3.8% 11.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 11.4% 1.9% 10.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 3.3% 2.5% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 4.0% 2.9% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 2.0% 1.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 87.4% 0.9 12.6 87.4
2nd Round 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0