Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
206 SIU Edwardsville 23.3%   16   4 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 10 13 - 7 -2.8      -4.1 280 +1.3 126 65.4 289 -0.3 182 0.0 1
233 Southeast Missouri St. 15.0%   1 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 14 11 - 8 -4.2      -3.1 249 -1.2 206 75.2 48 -9.6 304 0.0 1
239 Tennessee Martin 15.4%   4 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 8 -4.5      -3.6 266 -0.9 193 66.0 276 +4.8 107 0.0 1
246 Lindenwood 14.5%   3 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 13 12 - 8 -4.7      -4.4 292 -0.3 174 77.2 34 -1.9 198 0.0 1
249 Tennessee St. 13.1%   2 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 12 11 - 7 -4.8      -4.2 284 -0.6 184 74.9 56 -0.2 179 0.0 1
305 Arkansas Little Rock 4.9%   1 - 6 0 - 0 11 - 18 9 - 11 -8.0      -5.3 315 -2.8 262 65.6 284 -9.4 299 0.0 1
306 Tennessee Tech 4.1%   1 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 17 9 - 10 -8.1      -4.7 300 -3.3 284 73.7 85 -9.6 305 0.0 1
317 Southern Indiana 3.7%   1 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 18 9 - 11 -8.6      -5.8 326 -2.8 266 78.0 24 -13.7 343 0.0 1
325 Eastern Illinois 3.2%   1 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 18 8 - 12 -9.2      -7.1 346 -2.1 238 66.1 272 -8.2 289 0.0 1
327 Morehead St. 2.7%   1 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 18 8 - 12 -9.5      -5.6 321 -3.9 307 66.8 259 -12.8 333 0.0 1
361 Western Illinois 0.2%   0 - 7 0 - 0 5 - 23 5 - 15 -14.5      -6.7 343 -7.8 358 62.5 347 -20.3 361 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Dec 2 343 North Florida 63 206 SIU Edwardsville 72   
Tue, Dec 2 288 Charleston Southern 56 239 Tennessee Martin 73   
Tue, Dec 2 327 Morehead St. 52 113 Murray St. 84   
Tue, Dec 2 246 Lindenwood 99 330 Northern Illinois 64   
Tue, Dec 2 128 Drake 108 361 Western Illinois 57   
Wed, Dec 3 164 Lipscomb 83 306 Tennessee Tech 80   
Wed, Dec 3 266 Alabama A&M 80 249 Tennessee St. 53   
Wed, Dec 3 317 Southern Indiana 74 267 Western Michigan 88   
Wed, Dec 3 273 Central Arkansas 85 305 Arkansas Little Rock 47   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 6 209 Chattanooga 77 233 Southeast Missouri St. 73 66%   
Sat, Dec 6 206 SIU Edwardsville 72 267 Western Michigan 66 72%   
Sat, Dec 6 306 Tennessee Tech 72 285 West Georgia 77 66%   
Sat, Dec 6 325 Eastern Illinois 70 246 Lindenwood 72 56%   
Sat, Dec 6 327 Morehead St. 60 257 Presbyterian 67 75%   
Sat, Dec 6 155 Arkansas St. 77 305 Arkansas Little Rock 72 69%   
Sun, Dec 7 268 Alabama St. 69 239 Tennessee Martin 73 67%   
Sun, Dec 7 196 Indiana St. 84 317 Southern Indiana 75 81%   
Tue, Dec 9 305 Arkansas Little Rock 55 65 West Virginia 75 96%   
Wed, Dec 10 142 Southern Illinois 76 239 Tennessee Martin 67 80%   
Wed, Dec 10 325 Eastern Illinois 72 258 Eastern Kentucky 73 53%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
SIU Edwardsville 3.0 35.1 20.0 13.4 9.5 7.3 5.2 4.0 2.6 1.6 1.0 0.2
Southeast Missouri St. 4.2 15.8 16.3 14.7 12.5 10.8 9.1 7.4 5.6 4.1 2.6 1.1
Tennessee Martin 3.9 21.9 16.8 14.1 11.5 9.6 7.9 6.2 5.0 3.5 2.5 1.0
Lindenwood 4.0 20.1 16.5 13.3 12.1 10.5 8.3 6.9 5.2 3.7 2.7 0.8
Tennessee St. 4.7 11.1 13.6 13.8 12.8 12.6 10.4 9.1 7.0 5.2 3.1 1.3
Arkansas Little Rock 6.1 5.4 7.8 8.6 10.0 10.9 11.0 11.6 11.5 10.2 8.4 4.8
Tennessee Tech 6.5 3.5 5.8 7.5 8.8 10.6 11.4 12.3 12.7 11.5 10.3 5.8
Southern Indiana 6.4 4.4 6.5 7.6 8.4 10.1 11.3 11.7 12.1 11.3 10.6 6.0
Eastern Illinois 6.8 3.7 5.3 6.7 7.9 9.1 10.3 11.0 12.7 13.0 12.2 8.1
Morehead St. 7.0 3.1 4.7 5.7 7.6 8.7 10.2 11.6 12.8 13.4 13.8 8.5
Western Illinois 9.6 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.2 4.9 7.8 12.2 21.5 45.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
SIU Edwardsville 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.9 5.1 7.2 9.3 11.4 13.2 13.2 12.1 9.9 6.8 3.8 1.4 0.4
Southeast Missouri St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.7 4.3 6.4 9.5 11.1 12.3 13.4 12.4 10.1 7.4 4.4 2.6 0.9 0.1
Tennessee Martin 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.8 5.7 8.0 9.7 11.2 12.4 12.7 10.8 8.9 6.2 3.6 1.7 0.7 0.2
Lindenwood 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.8 6.5 8.3 10.2 12.3 12.3 11.9 10.2 8.6 5.8 3.6 1.5 0.4 0.1
Tennessee St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.4 5.6 8.1 10.8 12.7 13.4 12.7 11.7 8.7 5.2 3.0 1.1 0.3
Arkansas Little Rock 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 3.1 5.0 7.5 10.1 12.0 12.3 12.4 10.6 9.1 6.4 4.6 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Tech 9 - 11 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.8 6.1 8.9 11.1 13.0 12.8 12.7 9.7 8.0 5.1 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1
Southern Indiana 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 4.0 6.0 8.7 11.0 12.3 12.7 11.7 9.7 7.6 5.5 3.5 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Eastern Illinois 8 - 12 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.8 5.2 7.7 9.8 12.2 11.9 11.6 10.9 8.8 7.1 4.7 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1
Morehead St. 8 - 12 0.0 0.5 1.4 3.4 5.2 8.2 10.6 12.2 12.5 12.2 10.2 8.4 6.3 4.0 2.5 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Western Illinois 5 - 15 1.8 6.1 10.9 13.8 14.8 14.7 12.0 9.7 6.7 4.0 2.6 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
SIU Edwardsville 35.1% 25.0 7.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 15.8% 9.7 4.4 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Martin 21.9% 14.7 5.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Lindenwood 20.1% 13.3 5.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Tennessee St. 11.1% 6.3 3.2 1.3 0.3 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 5.4% 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Tech 3.5% 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Indiana 4.4% 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Eastern Illinois 3.7% 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Morehead St. 3.1% 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Western Illinois 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
SIU Edwardsville 23.3% 23.3% 0.0% 16   0.1 0.2 1.1 3.8 9.1 9.1 76.7 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 15.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 1.0 3.2 10.5 85.0 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.5 6.3 5.7 84.6 0.0%
Lindenwood 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 4.6 8.2 85.5 0.0%
Tennessee St. 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 4.9 6.1 86.9 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 4.4 95.2 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 3.6 95.9 0.0%
Southern Indiana 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.5 96.3 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.8 96.8 0.0%
Morehead St. 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.5 97.3 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
SIU Edwardsville 23.3% 3.4% 21.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 15.0% 5.9% 12.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 15.4% 2.0% 14.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 14.5% 3.8% 12.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 13.1% 2.4% 11.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 4.9% 3.3% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 4.1% 2.6% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 3.7% 2.7% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 3.2% 1.9% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 2.7% 2.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 85.6% 0.9 14.4 85.6
2nd Round 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0