Texas Tech
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.0#22
Expected Predictive Rating+8.8#69
Pace66.3#249
Improvement+1.0#122

Offense
Total Offense+9.0#13
First Shot+7.9#18
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#117
Layup/Dunks-0.9#220
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#35
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#24
Freethrows-0.3#197
Improvement-0.4#211

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#38
First Shot+5.3#36
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#120
Layups/Dunks+8.2#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#359
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#190
Freethrows+2.1#52
Improvement+1.4#69
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.8% 2.0% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 4.9% 5.6% 1.2%
Top 4 Seed 17.2% 19.3% 6.5%
Top 6 Seed 35.7% 38.7% 20.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 80.6% 83.3% 66.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 79.3% 82.0% 65.6%
Average Seed 6.7 6.6 7.6
.500 or above 98.0% 98.7% 94.4%
.500 or above in Conference 82.9% 86.2% 65.7%
Conference Champion 8.0% 9.1% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 1.1%
First Four4.9% 4.7% 6.1%
First Round78.6% 81.3% 64.2%
Second Round54.8% 57.4% 40.8%
Sweet Sixteen25.8% 27.6% 16.7%
Elite Eight11.9% 12.8% 6.9%
Final Four5.1% 5.6% 2.6%
Championship Game2.2% 2.5% 1.0%
National Champion0.9% 1.0% 0.4%

Next Game: Central Florida (Home) - 84.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 8
Quad 26 - 212 - 10
Quad 35 - 016 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 260   Bethune-Cookman W 94-61 97%     1 - 0 +24.7 +22.3 +3.2
  Nov 08, 2024 292   Northwestern St. W 86-65 98%     2 - 0 +11.0 +11.1 +0.4
  Nov 13, 2024 145   Wyoming W 96-49 94%     3 - 0 +44.6 +23.1 +21.9
  Nov 18, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98-64 99.6%    4 - 0 +13.6 +8.8 +3.7
  Nov 21, 2024 85   Saint Joseph's L 77-78 79%     4 - 1 +5.6 +8.5 -2.9
  Nov 22, 2024 103   Syracuse W 79-74 83%     5 - 1 +9.7 +10.3 -0.4
  Nov 29, 2024 183   Northern Colorado W 89-64 95%     6 - 1 +20.9 +12.1 +8.9
  Dec 04, 2024 99   DePaul W 76-62 89%     7 - 1 +15.8 +8.1 +8.5
  Dec 08, 2024 23   Texas A&M L 67-72 51%     7 - 2 +9.7 +6.6 +2.7
  Dec 16, 2024 285   Oral Roberts W 86-50 98%     8 - 2 +26.1 +10.7 +17.3
  Dec 21, 2024 195   Lamar W 101-57 96%     9 - 2 +39.3 +28.9 +11.1
  Dec 31, 2024 80   Central Florida W 78-67 84%    
  Jan 04, 2025 65   @ Utah W 78-74 64%    
  Jan 07, 2025 42   @ BYU W 76-75 53%    
  Jan 11, 2025 5   Iowa St. L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 14, 2025 82   @ Kansas St. W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 18, 2025 12   Arizona W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 21, 2025 26   @ Cincinnati L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 26, 2025 96   Oklahoma St. W 82-69 88%    
  Jan 29, 2025 66   TCU W 75-65 82%    
  Feb 01, 2025 4   @ Houston L 62-70 25%    
  Feb 04, 2025 14   Baylor W 75-73 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 12   @ Arizona L 74-78 36%    
  Feb 12, 2025 58   Arizona St. W 77-68 80%    
  Feb 15, 2025 96   @ Oklahoma St. W 79-72 73%    
  Feb 18, 2025 66   @ TCU W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 22, 2025 38   West Virginia W 73-67 71%    
  Feb 24, 2025 4   Houston L 65-67 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 9   @ Kansas L 70-76 30%    
  Mar 05, 2025 76   Colorado W 76-66 83%    
  Mar 08, 2025 58   @ Arizona St. W 74-71 60%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.4 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 8.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 2.4 3.8 2.6 0.6 0.1 10.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.0 2.7 0.5 0.0 11.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.5 3.3 0.6 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 5.3 3.8 0.8 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.9 4.5 0.9 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.4 3.7 4.7 1.2 0.1 10.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 4.0 1.7 0.1 7.8 8th
9th 0.8 2.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.3 1.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.8 4.8 7.3 11.2 13.6 13.9 13.7 11.7 8.6 5.5 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 93.0% 1.2    1.1 0.1 0.0
17-3 78.7% 2.2    1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
16-4 44.1% 2.4    1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 16.7% 1.4    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.0% 8.0 4.3 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 38.5% 61.5% 1.3 0.3 0.1 100.0%
18-2 1.3% 100.0% 27.5% 72.5% 1.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 100.0%
17-3 2.8% 100.0% 16.5% 83.5% 2.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.5% 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 3.4 0.3 1.0 1.8 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 8.6% 99.9% 12.2% 87.7% 4.5 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.5 2.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 99.9%
14-6 11.7% 99.8% 10.3% 89.5% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.9 3.0 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 13.7% 98.4% 8.2% 90.3% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.1 3.8 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.3%
12-8 13.9% 94.9% 4.8% 90.0% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.2 3.7 2.5 1.4 0.2 0.7 94.6%
11-9 13.6% 87.0% 2.1% 84.8% 8.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.1 3.4 2.4 0.9 1.8 86.7%
10-10 11.2% 71.7% 1.9% 69.8% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 2.9 1.7 0.0 3.2 71.2%
9-11 7.3% 38.8% 1.3% 37.5% 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.4 0.1 4.5 38.0%
8-12 4.8% 14.6% 0.1% 14.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 4.1 14.4%
7-13 2.8% 3.0% 0.6% 2.4% 10.7 0.0 0.1 2.7 2.5%
6-14 1.4% 1.4
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 80.6% 6.6% 74.0% 6.7 1.8 3.1 5.2 7.2 8.5 9.9 11.5 11.4 9.1 7.9 4.7 0.2 19.4 79.3%