Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.7 #185
Expected Predictive Rating -2.4 #210
Pace 70.8 #130
Improvement -3.4 #322

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #148 B C- C D- C+
Defense #247 C+ C F D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #210 1.25 #88 +1.0 #141
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #227 0.79 #122 -0.7 #211
Three Pointers 45% #109 1.08 #89 +3.5 #73
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #73 +3.8 #73
Freethrows 14.1 #331 74% #142 10.5 #304
Second Chance 27.7% #264 1.07 #141 0.30 #223
Turnovers 16.8% #204
Total Offense +0.5 #148

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #29 1.17 #198 -4.1 #312
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #185 0.80 #258 -0.3 #203
Three Pointers 35% #332 0.88 #34 +5.5 #14
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #144 +1.1 #144
Freethrows 18.9 #265 74% #263 14.0 #288
Second Chance 26.8% #55 1.16 #305 0.31 #157
Turnovers 12.4% #355
Total Defense -2.3 #247

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #153 1.0% #265
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.8% #77 -3.2% #125
Possession Length 17.4 #182 17.1 #150
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #345 0.15 #102
Improvement -1.5 #272 -1.8 #292

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.4% 9.4% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 15.0
.500 or above 64.9% 74.0% 46.9%
.500 or above in Conference 28.9% 37.1% 12.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.5% 1.7% 13.1%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 1.0%
First Round8.2% 9.3% 6.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Away) - 66.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 33 - 74 - 9
Quad 411 - 616 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 279 @Pepperdine W 88 - 81 OT 57% +5  1 - 0 +3 +3 B- C F -1 B- A- F
 Fri, Nov 21 131 St. Thomas L 72 - 73 37% +5  1 - 1 +1 -3 C A- F +4 A+ F C
 Sat, Nov 22 210 @Portland W 86 - 80 OT 44% +2  2 - 1 +6 +3 C+ C A- +2 A F D
 Sun, Nov 23 229 Cal St. Fullerton W 97 - 93 58% +4  3 - 1 +0 +10 C B- A+ -11 C B- F
 Wed, Nov 26 340 @Air Force W 71 - 53 74% +5  4 - 1 +10 +7 A+ F B- +5 A D+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 261 @Nebraska Omaha W 75 - 70 53% +1  5 - 1 +2 +4 B+ F C -2 B+ F F
 Sat, Dec 6 283 South Dakota W 89 - 87 OT 78% +2  6 - 1 -8 +2 A+ F F -10 D C D+
 Tue, Dec 16 15 @Texas Tech L 90 - 101 3% -7  6 - 2 +10 +28 A+ A+ B+ -18 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 280 Denver L 79 - 86 77% +2  6 - 3 -17 -7 D- F C -10 F A+ D
 Sun, Dec 28 78 @Colorado W 86 - 81 13% +2  7 - 3 +16 +13 A+ C D- +2 A+ B F
 Thu, Jan 1 152 @Montana St. L 75 - 89 31% -6  7 - 4 0 - 1 -10 +2 C A F -12 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 161 @Montana L 79 - 88 33% -9  7 - 5 0 - 2 -6 +0 F C+ B- -6 B- A F
 Thu, Jan 8 219 Idaho St. W 85 - 72 68% +11  8 - 5 1 - 2 +7 +13 A+ F A- -6 A C D-
 Sat, Jan 10 217 Weber St. L 71 - 76 67% -1  8 - 6 1 - 3 -11 -2 F C+ C- -10 D A- F
 Thu, Jan 15 153 @Portland St. L 73 - 76 31% +1  8 - 7 1 - 4 +1 +3 A+ F D -3 C F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 290 @Sacramento St. L 89 - 93 OT 60% +7  8 - 8 1 - 5 -8 +2 B F C- -10 F C+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 152 Montana St. L 68 - 73 53% -4  8 - 9 1 - 6 -7 -1 C- B+ D- -7 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 315 @Northern Arizona W 77 - 72 66%
 Thu, Jan 29 183 Idaho W 78 - 75 61%
 Sat, Jan 31 243 Eastern Washington W 82 - 76 71%
 Thu, Feb 5 217 @Weber St. L 78 - 79 45%
 Sat, Feb 7 219 @Idaho St. L 75 - 76 45%
 Thu, Feb 12 290 Sacramento St. W 86 - 77 79%
 Sat, Feb 14 153 Portland St. W 74 - 73 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 315 Northern Arizona W 80 - 69 84%
 Thu, Feb 26 243 @Eastern Washington L 79 - 80 49%
 Sat, Feb 28 183 @Idaho L 75 - 78 38%
 Mon, Mar 2 161 Montana W 79 - 78 55%
Totals 14 - 14 7 - 11 -2 +1 B C- C -2 C+ C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 1.7 0.4 3.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.7 4.6 1.1 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.2 3.5 7.7 2.6 0.1 14.1 5th
6th 0.2 3.4 10.0 4.7 0.3 18.5 6th
7th 0.2 3.5 9.5 6.4 0.6 0.0 20.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.3 8.6 6.5 1.0 0.0 19.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.9 3.1 0.7 0.0 11.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.8 8.9 15.5 20.2 21.2 15.9 8.9 3.4 0.7 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 3.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.7% 25.0% 25.0% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
11-7 3.4% 20.3% 20.3% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 2.7
10-8 8.9% 17.4% 17.4% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 7.4
9-9 15.9% 13.0% 13.0% 14.3 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.0 13.9
8-10 21.2% 7.9% 7.9% 14.8 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.1 19.5
7-11 20.2% 5.7% 5.7% 15.3 0.0 0.7 0.4 19.1
6-12 15.5% 4.1% 4.1% 15.6 0.3 0.4 14.9
5-13 8.9% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.3 8.6
4-14 3.8% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 3.7
3-15 1.2% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 14.5 91.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.5 2.9 45.7 48.6 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%