Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -1.0 175
Expected Predictive Rating -1.1 180
Pace 70.8 118
Improvement -1.3 246

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #141 B- C- C D- C+
Defense C- #236 C+ C+ F D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 208 63% 75 +1.1 134
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 221 38% 161 -0.8 219
Three Pointers 44% 119 36% 92 +3.1 77
1st FG Attempt 1.09 82 +3.5 81
Second Chance 27.9% 253 1.07 109 0.30 202
Turnovers 17.0% 184
Freethrows 0.24 350 74% 121 0.17 336
Total Offense +1.0 141

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 25 58% 174 -3.6 303
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 190 41% 274 -0.4 219
Three Pointers 35% 331 30% 29 +5.3 6
1st FG Attempt 0.99 127 +1.4 127
Second Chance 26.3% 45 1.16 330 0.30 157
Turnovers 12.4% 358
Freethrows 0.33 262 76% 348 0.25 298
Total Defense -1.9 236

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.2 168 +0.5 263
Shot Type Accuracy +3.2 77 -1.9 105
Possession Length 17.2 162 17.2 170
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 351 0.14 83
Improvement -0.6 #222 -0.7 #234

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12% 13% 9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.5
.500 or above 91% 96% 77%
.500 or above in Conference 57% 66% 27%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 1% 0% 3%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round12% 13% 9%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Sacramento St. (Home) - 75.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 20 - 11 - 2
Quad 36 - 67 - 8
Quad 410 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 291 @Pepperdine W 88 - 81 OT 64% +5  93% 1 - 0 C+ +2 C- -1 C+ C F B- +3 B- B+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 123 St. Thomas L 72 - 73 37% +5  92% 1 - 1 C +1 D- -6 C- B+ F B+ +8 A+ F C
 Sat, Nov 22 206 @Portland W 86 - 80 OT 45% +2  64% 2 - 1 B- +6 C +1 C C A- B +5 A- F D
 Sun, Nov 23 210 Cal St. Fullerton W 97 - 93 57% +4  85% 3 - 1 C +1 B+ +9 C B- A+ D- -8 C+ C+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 349 @Air Force W 71 - 53 79% +5  73% 4 - 1 B +8 B- +4 A F C+ B+ +8 A- C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 249 @Nebraska Omaha W 75 - 70 54% +1  56% 5 - 1 C+ +3 C+ +2 B- F C C+ +1 B F+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 281 South Dakota W 89 - 87 OT 80% +2  67% 6 - 1 D+ -8 C +0 A D D D- -8 D C- C
 Tue, Dec 16 16 @Texas Tech L 90 - 101 3% -7  0% 6 - 2 B +10 A+ +26 A+ A+ B+ F -16 F A F
 Sat, Dec 20 257 Denver L 79 - 86 76% +2  58% 6 - 3 F+ -15 F+ -8 D D C+ D -7 F+ A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 77 @Colorado W 86 - 81 14% +2  57% 7 - 3 A- +15 A- +10 A+ C+ D+ B +5 A+ B- F
 Thu, Jan 1 162 @Montana St. L 75 - 89 36% -6  8% 7 - 4 0 - 1 D- -11 C- -1 D+ A D+ F+ -10 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 170 @Montana L 79 - 88 37% -9  0% 7 - 5 0 - 2 D+ -7 C- -1 F+ B- B D+ -5 B- A- F
 Thu, Jan 8 250 Idaho St. W 85 - 72 75% +11  98% 8 - 5 1 - 2 B- +5 A- +10 A+ F+ B+ D+ -4 B+ C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 232 Weber St. L 71 - 76 72% -1  37% 8 - 6 1 - 3 D- -12 D- -6 F+ B- C D -6 C- B D-
 Thu, Jan 15 142 @Portland St. L 73 - 76 31% +1  58% 8 - 7 1 - 4 C +1 C +2 A+ F C- C -0 C F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 254 @Sacramento St. L 89 - 93 OT 56% +7  86% 8 - 8 1 - 5 D+ -6 C- -0 B F D+ D -6 D+ C- F
 Mon, Jan 19 162 Montana St. L 68 - 73 59% -4  25% 8 - 9 1 - 6 D -8 D -4 D A- D D+ -5 D A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 311 @Northern Arizona L 77 - 81 69% -2  18% 8 - 10 1 - 7 D -10 B +6 A- B F F -16 F F F+
 Thu, Jan 29 189 Idaho W 91 - 83 65% +2  54% 9 - 10 2 - 7 C+ +3 B +6 A- D+ C+ D+ -4 B A- F
 Sat, Jan 31 229 Eastern Washington W 74 - 71 71% -1  34% 10 - 10 3 - 7 C- -4 D+ -4 D F A+ C+ +1 C+ C- C-
 Thu, Feb 5 232 @Weber St. W 88 - 74 50% +10  95% 11 - 10 4 - 7 B+ +13 A +13 A A B+ C +0 B A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 250 @Idaho St. W 69 - 61 54% +3  68% 12 - 10 5 - 7 B- +6 D -4 C+ B- F A +11 A+ C- F
 Thu, Feb 12 254 Sacramento St. W 86 - 79 76%
 Sat, Feb 14 142 Portland St. W 74 - 73 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 311 Northern Arizona W 81 - 70 85%
 Thu, Feb 26 229 @Eastern Washington L 79 - 80 49%
 Sat, Feb 28 189 @Idaho L 75 - 77 43%
 Mon, Mar 2 170 Montana W 79 - 76 60%
Totals 16 - 12 9 - 9 -1 C +1 B- C- C C- -2 C+ C+ F



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B- C B- B- 37% 18% 44% C+ B- D+ C+ C- C F+ C+ D- C- C D+ B+ B- 45% 20% 35% D+ C+ B D- C+ F D+ D- D+
1.10 63% 38% 36% +3 0 1.09 28% 1.1 .30 17% .24 74% .17 1.11 58% 41% 30% -2 +1 0.99 26% 1.2 .30 12% .33 76% .18
Nov
15		 Pepperdine C- C- A+ C C+ 43% 13% 44% C C+ C+ D+ C F A+ B A+ B- B+ F A+ B 46% 22% 32% D B- C- A+ B+ F F A+ F+
1.07 57% 57% 33% +1 +1 1.07 34% 1.0 .34 24% .40 76% .30 0.98 48% 50% 25% -6 0 0.90 30% 0.6 .18 13% .42 67% .28
Nov
21		 St. Thomas D- C+ A+ F D+ 47% 9% 44% B+ C- D+ A+ B+ F A+ A- A+ B+ A- A+ B+ A+ 48% 9% 43% D+ A+ F F+ F C B A A-
0.99 62% 50% 25% -3 +2 1.00 26% 1.7 .44 25% .38 81% .31 1.00 54% 20% 30% -6 +2 0.94 30% 1.1 .32 15% .26 63% .16
Nov
22		 Portland C C A+ F C- 43% 15% 43% B- C F A+ C A- D A+ C+ B C D A+ A+ 48% 12% 40% F+ A- C F F D B+ C- B
1.07 58% 56% 27% -2 +1 1.00 17% 2.0 .34 14% .26 89% .23 0.99 59% 43% 17% -9 +2 0.87 30% 1.6 .48 17% .24 75% .18
Nov
23		 Cal St. Fullerton B+ B+ C D+ C 35% 15% 51% C C D- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+ D- C B+ B- B- 55% 16% 30% F C+ B D+ C+ F F C+ F+
1.20 68% 38% 32% +2 0 1.07 24% 1.5 .36 11% .56 85% .47 1.15 57% 30% 32% -3 +2 1.00 21% 1.0 .21 5% .43 70% .30
Nov
26		 Air Force B- A- A A A 35% 16% 49% C+ A F C- F C+ F F F B+ F A+ A+ B 31% 38% 31% A+ A- B+ F C- F B- A- B
1.16 71% 50% 42% +12 0 1.27 15% 1.0 .15 15% .15 63% .10 0.87 87% 22% 13% -7 -3 0.83 18% 1.5 .27 16% .27 57% .16
Dec
3		 Nebraska Omaha C+ F A+ A B- 43% 8% 49% B+ B- C F F C D- A+ C- C+ A- A C A- 48% 15% 38% F B B- F F+ D- F B D-
1.13 50% 75% 40% +4 +2 1.14 29% 0.5 .14 14% .26 87% .23 1.06 48% 29% 33% -7 +1 0.92 23% 1.6 .37 14% .38 68% .26
Dec
6		 South Dakota C A B- A+ A+ 47% 17% 36% D+ A F A+ D D A+ F B- D- C- F A+ D 58% 23% 19% D D C+ D- C- C F+ F F
1.17 72% 44% 42% +12 +1 1.28 21% 1.7 .34 18% .40 56% .22 1.14 58% 58% 20% +1 +1 1.06 27% 1.1 .30 17% .43 93% .39
Dec
16		 Texas Tech A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 34% 23% 43% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ F F F F F F F F 28% 22% 50% B- F A+ F A F F F+ F
1.31 74% 46% 42% +12 -1 1.25 38% 1.4 .53 15% .14 50% .07 1.47 80% 75% 44% +22 -1 1.44 15% 1.5 .23 4% .37 79% .29
Dec
20		 Denver F+ A+ F F D 44% 15% 41% C+ D C F+ D C+ F F F D D A+ F D- 54% 20% 26% F F+ A+ F A+ D+ C- F F+
1.10 81% 22% 21% 0 +1 1.03 36% 0.9 .33 13% .16 40% .06 1.20 62% 27% 50% +6 +1 1.17 11% 1.7 .19 13% .32 90% .29
Dec
28		 Colorado A- D A+ A+ A+ 42% 21% 38% B- A+ D+ A- C+ D+ C- B+ C B A- A- C+ A+ 38% 29% 32% A- A+ C+ B B- F A+ F B+
1.18 50% 55% 50% +9 0 1.21 24% 1.3 .31 18% .28 76% .22 1.11 52% 32% 33% -4 -1 0.91 32% 0.9 .28 7% .22 93% .21
Jan
1		 Montana St. C- C F C D+ 40% 19% 40% C- D+ C+ A+ A D+ D A+ C F+ D+ F A- D+ 39% 18% 43% F+ D+ A F F F C- B- C-
1.04 57% 20% 33% -4 0 0.94 32% 1.5 .47 18% .22 92% .20 1.24 59% 70% 29% +3 0 1.09 22% 2.4 .53 10% .28 72% .20
Jan
3		 Montana C- C- F D- F+ 23% 30% 48% F F+ C B B- B B- A- B D+ F A B+ B- 35% 20% 45% B- B- A- B- A- F F F F
1.03 57% 28% 28% -8 -2 0.82 30% 1.1 .35 13% .32 76% .24 1.15 72% 30% 30% +1 0 1.04 16% 1.0 .16 14% .58 92% .53
Jan
8		 Idaho St. A- A A+ A+ A+ 27% 10% 63% C+ A+ F+ D F+ B+ D- D F+ D+ D- C+ A+ A 53% 17% 30% D B+ C- B- C+ D+ F C- F
1.31 71% 60% 42% +14 +1 1.31 23% 1.0 .23 12% .26 73% .19 1.11 64% 38% 14% -6 +2 0.94 33% 0.9 .31 15% .42 74% .31
Jan
10		 Weber St. D- B- F+ F F 55% 21% 23% C+ F+ A F B- C B- A B+ D C+ F B+ B- 73% 4% 22% F C- C A B D- F C F
1.07 65% 30% 9% -6 +1 0.91 41% 0.9 .38 17% .36 80% .29 1.14 55% 50% 30% -3 +5 1.04 31% 0.8 .25 14% .57 70% .40
Jan
15		 Portland St. C A+ F A+ A+ 26% 16% 58% D+ A+ F F F C- D- F+ F+ C D+ F A C- 43% 26% 32% B+ C D- F F A- F D+ F
1.01 77% 25% 41% +9 0 1.20 13% 0.0 .00 19% .33 68% .22 1.05 60% 50% 27% 0 0 1.02 37% 1.2 .43 24% .51 71% .36
Jan
17		 Sacramento St. C- A+ C- D- B+ 41% 16% 43% C- B F D- F D+ F A+ F+ D F C B- D 26% 27% 47% B- D+ D+ C C- F F B F
1.11 77% 40% 30% +5 +1 1.14 24% 1.0 .24 17% .20 85% .17 1.16 69% 35% 31% 0 -2 0.98 30% 1.2 .34 10% .47 74% .35
Jan
19		 Montana St. D F+ D- C D- 51% 16% 33% B- D A+ C- A- D F F F D+ B+ C+ F C- 40% 10% 50% F D A+ A A+ F F C- F
1.04 46% 33% 33% -7 +1 0.91 44% 1.0 .44 18% .06 33% .02 1.11 48% 40% 42% +2 +2 1.10 15% 0.8 .12 11% .36 76% .27
Jan
24		 Northern Arizona B B+ B- A+ A+ 26% 26% 48% F A- A+ D- B F F A+ F F F D+ F F 33% 33% 33% A F A- F F F+ F F+ F
1.24 67% 42% 50% +15 -2 1.28 47% 0.9 .43 24% .15 86% .13 1.30 73% 40% 53% +16 -2 1.29 17% 2.3 .39 13% .35 74% .26
Jan
29		 Idaho B B+ F A+ B+ 50% 19% 31% A- A- D- B+ D+ C+ A+ D+ A+ D+ A+ D- C- B+ 38% 13% 50% D+ B A- A A- F F F F
1.20 65% 30% 44% +7 +1 1.17 19% 1.2 .22 14% .51 70% .35 1.09 38% 43% 36% -5 +1 0.93 21% 0.8 .17 8% .40 86% .34
Jan
31		 Eastern Washington D+ B- A+ F D- 38% 9% 54% C+ D C- F F A+ F A- F C+ B- B D+ B 52% 17% 31% F C+ A+ F C- C- A+ F A-
1.10 62% 60% 27% -2 +1 1.00 31% 0.8 .24 6% .17 82% .14 1.05 52% 33% 38% -2 +1 1.00 21% 1.7 .36 18% .18 90% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Weber St. A A- A+ A A+ 44% 15% 41% B- A D- A+ A B+ F D+ F C B- F A+ B+ 54% 15% 31% D+ B C+ A+ A+ F D F F
1.30 71% 50% 41% +12 +1 1.28 24% 2.0 .48 13% .17 70% .12 1.10 54% 75% 13% -7 +2 0.92 30% 0.5 .15 9% .39 83% .32
Feb
7		 Idaho St. D B D+ B- B- 41% 24% 35% D+ C+ F+ A+ B- F F A+ F A A+ A+ B A+ 44% 19% 37% C A+ A F C- F B- B B
1.07 65% 42% 35% +4 0 1.10 23% 1.7 .38 20% .15 88% .14 0.94 39% 20% 32% -13 +1 0.77 24% 1.4 .34 11% .28 69% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.7 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.7 6.4 3.3 10.4 3rd
4th 0.3 9.8 10.5 0.8 21.4 4th
5th 0.0 5.3 15.8 2.1 23.2 5th
6th 1.8 12.8 4.8 0.0 19.3 6th
7th 0.3 6.0 7.2 0.2 13.7 7th
8th 0.2 2.6 4.9 0.7 8.4 8th
9th 0.2 0.8 0.2 1.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.5 3.7 12.9 26.3 31.3 19.6 5.8 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 5.8% 19.9% 19.9% 12.9 0.3 0.7 0.2 4.6
10-8 19.6% 17.8% 17.8% 13.6 0.1 1.5 1.8 0.2 16.1
9-9 31.3% 13.3% 13.3% 14.1 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.0 0.0 27.1
8-10 26.3% 8.6% 8.6% 14.7 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.2 24.0
7-11 12.9% 5.9% 5.9% 15.3 0.0 0.5 0.2 12.1
6-12 3.7% 5.9% 5.9% 15.5 0.1 0.1 3.5
5-13 0.5% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 14.1 87.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 12.9 22.6 60.9 16.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8%