Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#151
Expected Predictive Rating+4.4#111
Pace70.8#150
Improvement-0.4#216

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#159
First Shot+0.7#160
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#211
Layup/Dunks+0.9#154
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#205
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#189
Freethrows+0.7#140
Improvement-0.2#198

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#166
First Shot+2.1#112
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#297
Layups/Dunks-4.2#319
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#241
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#15
Freethrows+0.5#148
Improvement-0.2#206
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.4% 18.2% 13.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 86.8% 89.8% 73.3%
.500 or above in Conference 78.0% 79.9% 69.4%
Conference Champion 23.6% 25.1% 16.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 2.9% 5.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round17.3% 18.2% 13.5%
Second Round1.2% 1.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Home) - 81.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 35 - 55 - 8
Quad 414 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 15 298 @Pepperdine W 88-81 OT 68%     1 - 0 +2.3 +0.6 +0.7
  Fri, Nov 21 166 St. Thomas L 72-73 54%     1 - 1 -1.8 -4.3 +2.6
  Sat, Nov 22 270 @Portland W 86-80 OT 63%     2 - 1 +2.9 +0.2 +1.9
  Sun, Nov 23 303 Cal St. Fullerton W 97-93 78%     3 - 1 -3.9 +7.0 -11.5
  Wed, Nov 26 332 @Air Force W 71-53 76%     4 - 1 +10.9 +6.1 +7.3
  Wed, Dec 3 252 @Nebraska Omaha W 75-70 60%     5 - 1 +2.8 +3.1 -0.1
  Sat, Dec 6 276 South Dakota W 85-76 82%    
  Tue, Dec 16 30 @Texas Tech L 66-82 6%    
  Sat, Dec 20 291 Denver W 82-72 83%    
  Sun, Dec 28 64 @Colorado L 71-83 14%    
  Thu, Jan 1 152 @Montana St. L 70-73 40%    
  Sat, Jan 3 197 @Montana L 77-78 48%    
  Thu, Jan 8 167 Idaho St. W 71-67 64%    
  Sat, Jan 10 192 Weber St. W 79-74 69%    
  Thu, Jan 15 156 @Portland St. L 72-75 40%    
  Sat, Jan 17 274 @Sacramento St. W 79-76 62%    
  Mon, Jan 19 152 Montana St. W 73-70 61%    
  Sat, Jan 24 263 @Northern Arizona W 75-72 61%    
  Thu, Jan 29 187 Idaho W 76-71 68%    
  Sat, Jan 31 251 Eastern Washington W 82-74 77%    
  Thu, Feb 5 192 @Weber St. L 76-77 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 167 @Idaho St. L 68-70 44%    
  Thu, Feb 12 274 Sacramento St. W 82-73 79%    
  Sat, Feb 14 156 Portland St. W 75-72 60%    
  Sat, Feb 21 263 Northern Arizona W 78-69 78%    
  Thu, Feb 26 251 @Eastern Washington W 79-77 58%    
  Sat, Feb 28 187 @Idaho L 73-74 48%    
  Mon, Mar 2 197 Montana W 81-75 69%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.3 6.0 5.4 2.7 1.1 0.2 23.6 1st
2nd 0.5 3.4 6.5 4.8 1.8 0.4 0.0 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.5 5.9 3.5 0.8 0.1 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 2.6 5.4 2.9 0.4 11.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 5.0 2.7 0.3 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.6 2.9 0.3 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.8 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.1 4.1 6.0 8.0 11.2 12.4 12.9 13.0 10.9 7.8 5.8 2.7 1.1 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 99.5% 2.7    2.6 0.1
15-3 93.5% 5.4    4.7 0.7 0.0
14-4 76.3% 6.0    4.1 1.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 48.5% 5.3    2.4 2.4 0.5 0.0
12-6 19.2% 2.5    0.5 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-7 3.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.6% 23.6 15.7 6.1 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 49.3% 49.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.1% 52.4% 52.4% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5
16-2 2.7% 45.0% 45.0% 12.6 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.5
15-3 5.8% 38.5% 38.5% 13.0 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 3.6
14-4 7.8% 32.0% 32.0% 13.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.1 5.3
13-5 10.9% 26.0% 26.0% 13.6 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.4 8.0
12-6 13.0% 19.6% 19.6% 13.9 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.0 10.4
11-7 12.9% 14.7% 14.7% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.0 11.0
10-8 12.4% 12.8% 12.8% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 10.8
9-9 11.2% 10.3% 10.3% 14.8 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 10.1
8-10 8.0% 4.9% 4.9% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 7.6
7-11 6.0% 3.2% 3.2% 15.6 0.1 0.1 5.8
6-12 4.1% 2.5% 2.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 4.0
5-13 2.1% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.1
4-14 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-15 0.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.2 6.0 3.3 0.7 82.6 0.0%