Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#183
Expected Predictive Rating+2.2#134
Pace73.2#73
Improvement-3.9#346

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#131
First Shot+2.9#95
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#270
Layup/Dunks+6.7#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#281
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#224
Freethrows-0.6#219
Improvement-0.4#209

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#258
First Shot-5.6#345
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#10
Layups/Dunks-7.5#360
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#288
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#21
Freethrows-1.9#308
Improvement-3.5#356
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.4% 20.5% 13.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 79.6% 85.9% 66.5%
.500 or above in Conference 83.9% 89.4% 72.2%
Conference Champion 25.3% 31.2% 13.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.7% 3.3%
First Four0.7% 0.5% 1.1%
First Round18.1% 20.3% 13.4%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Home) - 67.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 44 - 8
Quad 413 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 76   @ Colorado L 88-90 2OT 14%     0 - 1 +8.5 +4.2 +4.7
  Nov 14, 2024 122   South Dakota St. W 78-69 37%     1 - 1 +11.4 +5.0 +6.3
  Nov 18, 2024 74   @ Washington St. L 69-83 14%     1 - 2 -3.4 +1.0 -4.2
  Nov 20, 2024 165   @ California Baptist W 79-68 36%     2 - 2 +13.7 +2.3 +10.9
  Nov 23, 2024 340   Prairie View W 114-98 89%     3 - 2 +1.7 +14.8 -15.3
  Nov 29, 2024 22   @ Texas Tech L 64-89 5%     3 - 3 -7.0 -1.3 -5.8
  Dec 04, 2024 124   St. Thomas L 75-87 50%     3 - 4 -13.0 +5.1 -18.8
  Dec 07, 2024 114   @ North Dakota St. L 70-82 25%     3 - 5 -6.0 -10.4 +5.5
  Dec 16, 2024 270   Air Force W 81-76 77%     4 - 5 -3.9 +2.6 -6.6
  Dec 21, 2024 322   @ Denver W 82-75 68%     5 - 5 +1.0 +11.8 -10.2
  Jan 02, 2025 217   Weber St. W 78-73 68%    
  Jan 04, 2025 253   Idaho St. W 75-68 74%    
  Jan 09, 2025 157   @ Montana St. L 75-79 35%    
  Jan 11, 2025 191   @ Montana L 77-80 40%    
  Jan 16, 2025 254   Portland St. W 82-75 74%    
  Jan 18, 2025 334   Sacramento St. W 77-64 88%    
  Jan 23, 2025 257   @ Idaho W 78-77 54%    
  Jan 25, 2025 255   @ Eastern Washington W 81-80 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 263   Northern Arizona W 82-75 76%    
  Feb 03, 2025 253   @ Idaho St. W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 06, 2025 191   Montana W 80-77 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 157   Montana St. W 78-76 56%    
  Feb 13, 2025 334   @ Sacramento St. W 74-67 72%    
  Feb 15, 2025 254   @ Portland St. W 79-78 54%    
  Feb 20, 2025 255   Eastern Washington W 84-77 74%    
  Feb 22, 2025 257   Idaho W 81-74 74%    
  Mar 01, 2025 263   @ Northern Arizona W 79-78 56%    
  Mar 03, 2025 217   @ Weber St. L 75-76 48%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 2.6 5.9 7.1 5.3 2.8 1.0 0.2 25.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.8 7.2 5.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 19.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.4 6.9 4.0 0.7 0.1 15.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 6.0 3.1 0.5 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 5.0 2.6 0.4 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.1 2.7 0.4 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.4 4.7 7.1 10.9 12.8 14.6 14.2 12.3 9.4 5.7 2.8 1.0 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 99.7% 2.8    2.7 0.1
15-3 92.9% 5.3    4.6 0.7 0.0
14-4 75.9% 7.1    5.0 1.9 0.2
13-5 48.2% 5.9    2.6 2.6 0.7 0.0
12-6 18.1% 2.6    0.5 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
11-7 3.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.3% 25.3 16.6 6.5 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 64.5% 64.5% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.0% 45.6% 45.6% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6
16-2 2.8% 42.8% 42.8% 13.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.6
15-3 5.7% 38.1% 38.1% 13.5 0.1 1.0 0.8 0.2 3.5
14-4 9.4% 30.2% 30.2% 13.8 0.0 0.9 1.4 0.5 6.5
13-5 12.3% 24.5% 24.5% 14.2 0.4 1.6 1.0 0.0 9.3
12-6 14.2% 21.0% 21.0% 14.6 0.1 1.2 1.5 0.2 11.2
11-7 14.6% 15.8% 15.8% 14.8 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.3 12.3
10-8 12.8% 11.8% 11.8% 15.1 0.1 1.1 0.3 11.3
9-9 10.9% 8.5% 8.5% 15.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 10.0
8-10 7.1% 6.5% 6.5% 15.7 0.1 0.3 6.6
7-11 4.7% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.2 4.4
6-12 2.4% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.1 2.3
5-13 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-14 0.5% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.2% 14.3% 14.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 18.4% 18.4% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.7 3.3 6.0 6.3 2.0 81.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.8 32.7 51.0 16.3