Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#130
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#115
Pace71.9#73
Improvement+1.7#129

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#99
First Shot+4.9#60
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#303
Layup/Dunks+6.7#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#275
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#177
Freethrows-0.3#192
Improvement+0.5#166

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#200
First Shot-4.3#309
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#4
Layups/Dunks-5.3#346
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#309
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#30
Freethrows-1.5#285
Improvement+1.2#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.0% 66.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.7 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round40.0% 66.2% 0.0%
Second Round2.4% 3.9% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 36 - 36 - 7
Quad 416 - 122 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 85   @ Colorado L 88-90 2OT 23%     0 - 1 +7.4 +4.5 +3.3
  Nov 14, 2024 135   South Dakota St. W 78-69 52%     1 - 1 +10.4 +4.1 +6.3
  Nov 18, 2024 120   @ Washington St. L 69-83 37%     1 - 2 -8.7 -4.0 -4.5
  Nov 20, 2024 162   @ California Baptist W 79-68 47%     2 - 2 +13.6 +5.4 +7.8
  Nov 23, 2024 358   Prairie View W 114-98 96%     3 - 2 -2.7 +15.5 -20.6
  Nov 29, 2024 7   @ Texas Tech L 64-89 4%     3 - 3 -2.5 +0.2 -2.8
  Dec 04, 2024 132   St. Thomas L 75-87 61%     3 - 4 -13.0 +3.2 -17.0
  Dec 07, 2024 143   @ North Dakota St. L 70-82 43%     3 - 5 -8.3 -12.3 +5.2
  Dec 16, 2024 300   Air Force W 81-76 88%     4 - 5 -5.7 +2.3 -8.1
  Dec 21, 2024 302   @ Denver W 82-75 76%     5 - 5 +1.6 +14.8 -12.6
  Jan 02, 2025 284   Weber St. W 89-72 86%     6 - 5 1 - 0 +7.1 +11.7 -4.5
  Jan 04, 2025 214   Idaho St. W 93-92 OT 77%     7 - 5 2 - 0 -4.7 +7.5 -12.3
  Jan 09, 2025 175   @ Montana St. W 83-82 50%     8 - 5 3 - 0 +2.9 +14.5 -11.6
  Jan 11, 2025 172   @ Montana W 81-57 49%     9 - 5 4 - 0 +26.1 +7.0 +19.0
  Jan 16, 2025 202   Portland St. W 72-69 75%     10 - 5 5 - 0 -2.2 +2.4 -4.5
  Jan 18, 2025 336   Sacramento St. W 68-64 93%     11 - 5 6 - 0 -10.3 -2.0 -7.7
  Jan 23, 2025 261   @ Idaho L 76-77 67%     11 - 6 6 - 1 -3.8 +4.4 -8.3
  Jan 25, 2025 295   @ Eastern Washington W 67-62 74%     12 - 6 7 - 1 +0.1 -4.8 +5.2
  Feb 01, 2025 246   Northern Arizona W 87-69 81%     13 - 6 8 - 1 +10.7 +11.0 -0.1
  Feb 03, 2025 214   @ Idaho St. W 86-72 58%     14 - 6 9 - 1 +13.8 +15.1 -0.8
  Feb 06, 2025 172   Montana L 78-86 69%     14 - 7 9 - 2 -11.4 +3.2 -14.8
  Feb 08, 2025 175   Montana St. W 73-66 70%     15 - 7 10 - 2 +3.4 +2.9 +1.0
  Feb 13, 2025 336   @ Sacramento St. W 77-61 84%     16 - 7 11 - 2 +7.2 +2.3 +5.1
  Feb 15, 2025 202   @ Portland St. L 71-82 56%     16 - 8 11 - 3 -10.6 -2.5 -7.4
  Feb 20, 2025 295   Eastern Washington W 95-76 87%     17 - 8 12 - 3 +8.6 +17.3 -8.6
  Feb 22, 2025 261   Idaho W 92-74 83%     18 - 8 13 - 3 +9.7 +18.9 -7.8
  Mar 01, 2025 246   @ Northern Arizona W 83-73 64%     19 - 8 14 - 3 +8.2 +9.1 -0.9
  Mar 03, 2025 284   @ Weber St. W 68-63 73%     20 - 8 15 - 3 +0.6 -5.2 +6.0
  Mar 09, 2025 284   Weber St. W 76-52 80%     21 - 8 +16.8 +1.2 +16.2
  Mar 11, 2025 175   Montana St. W 76-73 60%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 40.0% 40.0% 13.7 0.7 11.7 25.6 2.0 60.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 40.0% 40.0% 0.0% 13.7 0.7 11.7 25.6 2.0 60.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 40.0% 100.0% 13.7 1.7 29.3 64.0 5.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 20.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 39.7%