South Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.9 #283
Expected Predictive Rating -5.3 #247
Pace 77.4 #21
Improvement -0.9 #232

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #212 C C- D A- C
Defense #324 D F D+ C F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #67 1.08 #276 +0.7 #150
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #158 0.75 #186 +0.3 #159
Three Pointers 36% #292 1.05 #129 -2.0 #255
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #214 -1.0 #214
Freethrows 20.8 #24 75% #107 15.7 #27
Second Chance 31.2% #165 0.96 #286 0.30 #217
Turnovers 18.1% #287
Total Offense -1.5 #212

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 55% #1 1.25 #297 -12.3 #365
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #344 0.85 #312 +1.8 #60
Three Pointers 31% #363 0.91 #62 +7.0 #6
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #292 -3.5 #290
Freethrows 16.4 #139 75% #291 12.4 #168
Second Chance 34.3% #317 1.30 #363 0.45 #360
Turnovers 15.1% #258
Total Defense -5.4 #324

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #167 4.0% #365
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.3% #215 2.9% #233
Possession Length 17.1 #146 16.1 #23
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #258 0.21 #310
Improvement -0.6 #216 -0.3 #211

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 4.4% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 22.8% 38.9% 15.8%
.500 or above in Conference 52.5% 73.8% 43.4%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.4% 2.3%
First Four1.7% 1.6% 1.7%
First Round2.4% 3.6% 1.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Thomas (Home) - 30.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 412 - 613 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 233 Utah Tech L 79 - 81 OT 51% -2  0 - 1 -9 -9 F C- D+ -0 C- A- B
 Wed, Nov 5 44 @Creighton L 76 - 92 3% -12  0 - 2 -2 +5 C+ D F -6 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 329 Southern Indiana W 89 - 74 74% +9  1 - 2 +1 -2 F A F +1 A+ F B-
 Sun, Nov 16 260 Western Michigan W 83 - 78 56% -3  2 - 2 -3 +6 C- C+ A+ -9 F F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 50 @Missouri L 68 - 102 4% -14  2 - 3 -20 -4 D+ A F -15 F F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 359 South Carolina St. W 82 - 81 86% +8  3 - 3 -17 +0 B- F F -18 F F F
 Sat, Nov 29 340 Air Force W 80 - 63 67% +11  4 - 3 +6 +6 B C F -0 A+ B- F
 Wed, Dec 3 153 Portland St. L 71 - 77 33% -5  4 - 4 -8 -6 F A+ F -2 C- A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 185 @Northern Colorado L 87 - 89 OT 22% -2  4 - 5 -1 +6 B C F -7 F D B-
 Tue, Dec 9 108 @Wyoming L 79 - 106 10% -15  4 - 6 -20 +4 D+ A+ D- -22 F F D
 Sat, Dec 13 317 Prairie View W 97 - 85 71% +9  5 - 6 -1 +7 D+ B- B -9 F F A-
 Sat, Dec 20 85 @Kansas St. L 76 - 106 7% -22  5 - 7 -20 +2 D+ D B+ -20 F F C-
 Wed, Dec 31 147 @North Dakota St. L 61 - 84 16% -10  5 - 8 0 - 1 -19 -4 D- D- F -17 F F F
 Wed, Jan 7 131 @St. Thomas L 86 - 99 14% -15  5 - 9 0 - 2 -8 +11 A+ C- F -19 F F F
 Sat, Jan 10 280 Denver W 82 - 72 61% +2  6 - 9 1 - 2 +0 -2 B F C +2 A+ D C+
 Thu, Jan 15 353 UMKC W 99 - 83 81% +17  7 - 9 2 - 2 -0 +11 B- A+ B+ -12 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 17 297 @North Dakota L 80 - 96 42% -11  7 - 10 2 - 3 -21 +3 B- F B- -24 F F F
 Wed, Jan 21 261 @Nebraska Omaha W 68 - 64 34% -2  8 - 10 3 - 3 +1 -9 C- F F +10 A+ F B
 Sat, Jan 24 131 St. Thomas L 79 - 85 30%
 Thu, Jan 29 321 Oral Roberts W 83 - 77 71%
 Sat, Jan 31 147 North Dakota St. L 76 - 81 32%
 Wed, Feb 4 353 @UMKC W 82 - 79 62%
 Sat, Feb 7 170 @South Dakota St. L 77 - 86 20%
 Wed, Feb 11 297 North Dakota W 85 - 81 64%
 Thu, Feb 19 280 @Denver L 86 - 89 38%
 Sat, Feb 21 321 @Oral Roberts W 80 - 79 51%
 Wed, Feb 25 261 Nebraska Omaha W 82 - 80 56%
 Sat, Feb 28 170 South Dakota St. L 80 - 83 39%
Totals 13 - 15 8 - 8 -7 -2 C C- D -5 D F D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 5.8 6.4 2.4 0.2 16.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 10.3 9.3 2.1 0.1 24.2 4th
5th 0.1 2.7 11.0 9.3 1.5 0.1 24.6 5th
6th 0.0 2.1 8.3 7.5 1.0 0.0 18.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.5 4.1 0.6 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.2 1.4 1.2 0.1 2.9 8th
9th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 9th
Total 0.4 2.5 7.9 15.3 21.4 21.9 16.7 9.3 3.7 0.8 0.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 66.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-4 22.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
11-5 2.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.8% 13.3% 13.3% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
11-5 3.7% 7.1% 7.1% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.5
10-6 9.3% 6.4% 6.4% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 8.7
9-7 16.7% 4.3% 4.3% 15.8 0.1 0.6 16.0
8-8 21.9% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8 21.1
7-9 21.4% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.5 20.9
6-10 15.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 15.1
5-11 7.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 7.8
4-12 2.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.5
3-13 0.4% 0.4
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 15.8 96.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%