South Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#262
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#223
Pace80.5#5
Improvement-1.7#267

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#102
First Shot+0.1#168
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#36
Layup/Dunks+1.6#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#179
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#329
Freethrows+4.0#14
Improvement-1.9#294

Defense
Total Defense-8.3#358
First Shot-4.9#323
After Offensive Rebounds-3.4#354
Layups/Dunks-2.6#282
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#90
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#294
Freethrows-0.6#228
Improvement+0.2#175
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 2.4% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 25.8% 29.3% 11.3%
.500 or above in Conference 45.1% 45.9% 41.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 1.3% 1.5%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 1.2%
First Round1.9% 2.0% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Home) - 80.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 42 - 10
Quad 411 - 614 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 224   Southern W 93-79 51%     1 - 0 +8.1 +10.3 -3.9
  Nov 06, 2024 343   Texas A&M - Commerce W 86-77 80%    
  Nov 12, 2024 60   @ Iowa L 77-96 6%     1 - 1 -7.1 +2.9 -9.2
  Nov 20, 2024 306   @ Western Michigan W 80-76 51%     2 - 1 -1.9 +1.8 -3.8
  Nov 22, 2024 324   @ Southern Indiana L 83-92 57%     2 - 2 -16.5 +1.7 -17.7
  Nov 27, 2024 48   @ Nebraska L 79-96 5%     2 - 3 -3.9 +7.6 -10.3
  Dec 04, 2024 234   Idaho St. W 94-80 54%     3 - 3 +7.3 +21.3 -13.4
  Dec 07, 2024 250   @ Northern Arizona L 82-95 39%     3 - 4 -15.8 +1.4 -16.2
  Dec 10, 2024 167   Wyoming W 82-81 38%     4 - 4 -1.5 +2.7 -4.3
  Dec 14, 2024 354   Western Illinois W 89-66 83%     5 - 4 +7.2 +11.1 -3.2
  Dec 19, 2024 292   @ Utah Tech L 87-92 46%     5 - 5 -9.6 +8.5 -17.9
  Dec 21, 2024 64   @ Santa Clara L 81-98 7%     5 - 6 -6.0 +4.6 -9.0
  Jan 02, 2025 235   @ UMKC L 54-68 35%     5 - 7 0 - 1 -15.8 -12.9 -4.2
  Jan 04, 2025 331   Denver W 91-84 76%     6 - 7 1 - 1 -6.1 +6.0 -12.5
  Jan 11, 2025 119   @ St. Thomas L 104-119 16%     6 - 8 1 - 2 -10.1 +21.0 -29.8
  Jan 16, 2025 315   Oral Roberts W 92-82 71%     7 - 8 2 - 2 -1.5 +0.2 -2.7
  Jan 18, 2025 139   North Dakota St. L 77-103 33%     7 - 9 2 - 3 -27.2 -3.4 -22.9
  Jan 23, 2025 269   @ North Dakota W 102-93 42%     8 - 9 3 - 3 +5.4 +9.9 -5.7
  Jan 25, 2025 114   @ South Dakota St. L 71-90 15%     8 - 10 3 - 4 -13.5 -3.7 -8.7
  Jan 29, 2025 212   Nebraska Omaha W 91-87 48%     9 - 10 4 - 4 -1.2 +7.5 -9.0
  Feb 06, 2025 331   @ Denver W 85-83 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 315   @ Oral Roberts W 89-88 50%    
  Feb 13, 2025 235   UMKC W 79-78 56%    
  Feb 15, 2025 114   South Dakota St. L 83-89 30%    
  Feb 19, 2025 119   St. Thomas L 85-91 33%    
  Feb 22, 2025 212   @ Nebraska Omaha L 83-88 28%    
  Feb 26, 2025 139   @ North Dakota St. L 81-90 18%    
  Mar 01, 2025 269   North Dakota W 92-89 63%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.0 0.6 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.1 7.1 2.9 0.1 14.7 4th
5th 0.4 8.5 22.2 19.5 6.3 0.3 57.1 5th
6th 0.0 3.2 8.8 4.1 0.4 16.4 6th
7th 0.6 3.6 1.4 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
Total 1.6 7.8 18.7 26.9 23.9 14.2 5.5 1.4 0.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 35.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 2.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.2% 0.0 0.2
11-5 1.4% 10.7% 10.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
10-6 5.5% 4.8% 4.8% 15.3 0.2 0.1 5.2
9-7 14.2% 3.5% 3.5% 15.5 0.3 0.2 13.7
8-8 23.9% 2.4% 2.4% 15.8 0.1 0.5 23.4
7-9 26.9% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 26.4
6-10 18.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 18.4
5-11 7.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 7.7
4-12 1.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.7 97.6 0.0%