IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Mississippi Valley
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-21.2	#364
Expected Predictive Rating	-3.8	#234

Pace	62.9	#328
Improvement	+0.2	#163

Offense
Total Offense	-13.1	#364

First Shot	-10.6	#362
After Offensive Rebound	-2.4	#312

Layup/Dunks	-3.5	#306
2 Pt Jumpshots	+5.9	#9
3 Pt Jumpshots	-12.5	#364
Freethrows	-0.5	#209

Improvement	+0.1	#161

Defense
Total Defense	-8.1	#361

First Shot	-7.0	#354
After Offensive Rebounds	-1.1	#272

Layups/Dunks	-2.6	#283
2 Pt Jumpshots	+0.4	#161
3 Pt Jumpshots	-2.5	#283
Freethrows	-2.3	#321

Improvement	+0.1	#177

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.0	16.0	16.0

.500 or above	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
.500 or above in Conference	1.3%	3.1%	1.2%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	64.7%	54.6%	65.1%

First Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
First Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Away) - 3.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 1b	0 - 4	0 - 7
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 9
Quad 3	0 - 2	0 - 11
Quad 4	3 - 15	3 - 26

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	5	@ Iowa St.	L	44-83	0.1%	0 - 1			-16.6	-21.3	+6.9
Nov 14, 2024	55	@ Missouri	L	39-111	0.5%	0 - 2			-59.1	-28.6	-32.8
Nov 16, 2024	32	@ Texas	L	43-89	0.3%	0 - 3			-30.5	-17.6	-17.1
Nov 19, 2024	68	@ Kansas St.	L	56-74	1%	0 - 4			-6.7	-7.8	+0.1
Nov 23, 2024	40	@ BYU	L	43-87	0.4%	0 - 5			-30.0	-19.3	-16.0
Nov 26, 2024	67	@ Utah	L	48-94	1%	0 - 6			-34.5	-15.5	-22.2
Nov 29, 2024	139	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	48-81	2%	0 - 7			-28.8	-13.5	-22.1
Dec 07, 2024	81	@ Liberty	L	52-89	1%	0 - 8			-27.0	-10.7	-18.9
Dec 18, 2024	72	@ North Texas	L	42-83	1%	0 - 9			-30.4	-14.8	-22.2
Dec 21, 2024	251	@ Tulsa	L	58-77	4%
Dec 29, 2024	56	@ LSU	L	51-85	0.1%
Jan 04, 2025	284	@ Alabama St.	L	60-77	5%
Jan 06, 2025	361	@ Alabama A&M	L	64-73	20%
Jan 11, 2025	338	Prairie View	L	71-78	26%
Jan 13, 2025	305	Texas Southern	L	62-72	18%
Jan 18, 2025	264	@ Bethune-Cookman	L	56-75	4%
Jan 20, 2025	357	@ Florida A&M	L	59-70	16%
Jan 25, 2025	310	Grambling St.	L	59-69	19%
Jan 27, 2025	221	Southern	L	57-72	8%
Feb 01, 2025	362	@ Arkansas Pine Bluff	L	71-78	27%
Feb 08, 2025	307	@ Jackson St.	L	58-74	7%
Feb 10, 2025	339	@ Alcorn St.	L	59-72	12%
Feb 15, 2025	361	Alabama A&M	L	67-70	38%
Feb 17, 2025	284	Alabama St.	L	63-74	15%
Feb 22, 2025	305	@ Texas Southern	L	59-75	7%
Feb 24, 2025	338	@ Prairie View	L	68-81	12%
Mar 01, 2025	362	Arkansas Pine Bluff	L	74-75	47%
Mar 06, 2025	339	Alcorn St.	L	62-69	27%
Mar 08, 2025	307	Jackson St.	L	61-71	18%
Projected Record						3 - 26	3 - 15

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0			0.0						0.0	1st
2nd												0.0	0.0	0.0							0.0	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0							0.1	3rd
4th									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0								0.2	4th
5th									0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0									0.4	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.0									0.8	6th
7th						0.0	0.1	0.6	0.8	0.2	0.0										1.6	7th
8th					0.0	0.1	0.9	1.5	0.6	0.0	0.0										3.3	8th
9th				0.0	0.3	1.8	2.9	1.2	0.1												6.2	9th
10th			0.0	0.8	3.7	5.0	2.5	0.3	0.0												12.3	10th
11th		0.3	3.0	8.3	8.5	3.6	0.5	0.0													24.2	11th
12th	5.6	13.8	16.4	10.8	3.7	0.5	0.0														50.9	12th

Total	5.6	14.1	19.4	20.0	16.2	11.0	6.9	3.6	1.9	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0							Total

Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4	100.0%	0.0			0.0
13-5	0.0%
12-6	0.0%
11-7	1.4%	0.0						0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.0%	0.0			0.0			0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4	0.0%																							0.0
13-5	0.0%																							0.0
12-6	0.0%																							0.0
11-7	0.1%		2.7%	2.7%		16.0																	0.0	0.1
10-8	0.3%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																	0.0	0.3
9-9	0.8%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	0.8
8-10	1.9%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	1.9
7-11	3.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.6
6-12	6.9%																							6.9
5-13	11.0%																							11.0
4-14	16.2%																							16.2
3-15	20.0%																							20.0
2-16	19.4%																							19.4
1-17	14.1%																							14.1
0-18	5.6%																							5.6

Total	100%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0																	0.0	100.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	5.5%