Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.9#327
Expected Predictive Rating-9.3#312
Pace63.2#312
Improvement+2.9#70

Offense
Total Offense-5.9#323
First Shot-6.1#332
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#178
Layup/Dunks-5.3#340
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#68
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#221
Freethrows-1.4#269
Improvement+1.6#105

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#290
First Shot-3.0#276
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#269
Layups/Dunks+1.8#104
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.6#361
Freethrows+0.4#156
Improvement+1.3#114
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.6% 13.9% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.6% 13.9% 0.0%
First Round2.1% 5.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 50 - 9
Quad 30 - 40 - 13
Quad 412 - 712 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 64   @ Utah L 59-100 3%     0 - 1 -29.5 -4.9 -27.0
  Nov 06, 2024 55   @ Utah St. L 46-101 3%     0 - 2 -41.6 -24.6 -17.1
  Nov 11, 2024 141   @ Tulane L 51-84 11%     0 - 3 -29.2 -15.9 -16.3
  Nov 19, 2024 77   @ TCU L 48-71 4%     0 - 4 -12.9 -13.1 -1.4
  Nov 22, 2024 104   @ Washington L 60-77 7%     0 - 5 -10.3 -4.5 -7.2
  Nov 24, 2024 142   @ UC Riverside L 52-69 11%     0 - 6 -13.2 -18.1 +4.2
  Nov 29, 2024 131   @ South Alabama L 65-74 OT 10%     0 - 7 -4.4 +0.1 -5.1
  Dec 01, 2024 11   @ Maryland L 58-96 1%     0 - 8 -17.0 -4.9 -10.7
  Dec 04, 2024 126   @ Wichita St. L 54-78 9%     0 - 9 -19.2 -15.4 -3.8
  Dec 07, 2024 40   @ Oklahoma L 78-94 2%     0 - 10 -0.6 +8.6 -8.8
  Dec 16, 2024 191   @ Rice L 75-77 15%     0 - 11 -0.8 -0.1 -0.7
  Dec 22, 2024 108   @ UAB L 74-91 7%     0 - 12 -10.5 +4.7 -16.4
  Jan 04, 2025 269   Jackson St. L 69-72 45%     0 - 13 0 - 1 -11.7 -1.2 -10.7
  Jan 11, 2025 359   Alabama A&M W 62-52 80%     1 - 13 1 - 1 -8.8 -14.8 +6.5
  Jan 13, 2025 288   Alabama St. W 67-65 51%     2 - 13 2 - 1 -8.1 -3.4 -4.5
  Jan 18, 2025 279   @ Texas Southern L 57-66 28%     2 - 14 2 - 2 -12.9 -9.7 -3.8
  Jan 20, 2025 358   @ Prairie View W 78-70 63%     3 - 14 3 - 2 -5.2 -4.6 -0.9
  Jan 25, 2025 322   Florida A&M L 64-65 60%     3 - 15 3 - 3 -13.4 -8.0 -5.5
  Jan 27, 2025 289   Bethune-Cookman W 70-61 51%     4 - 15 4 - 3 -1.2 -0.8 +0.2
  Feb 01, 2025 231   @ Southern L 69-74 20%     4 - 16 4 - 4 -6.1 -2.8 -3.2
  Feb 03, 2025 330   @ Grambling St. W 60-53 42%     5 - 16 5 - 4 -0.9 -6.0 +6.1
  Feb 08, 2025 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 79-60 86%     6 - 16 6 - 4 -2.2 -6.9 +4.2
  Feb 10, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 86-39 96%     7 - 16 7 - 4 +16.0 +10.0 +11.5
  Feb 15, 2025 289   @ Bethune-Cookman W 78-74 31%     8 - 16 8 - 4 -0.7 +6.5 -7.1
  Feb 17, 2025 322   @ Florida A&M L 76-85 38%     8 - 17 8 - 5 -15.8 +4.8 -21.3
  Feb 22, 2025 269   @ Jackson St. L 63-71 26%     8 - 18 8 - 6 -11.2 -3.8 -8.1
  Mar 01, 2025 358   Prairie View W 71-55 80%     9 - 18 9 - 6 -2.7 -1.1 +0.6
  Mar 03, 2025 279   Texas Southern L 59-75 48%     9 - 19 9 - 7 -25.4 -8.0 -19.0
  Mar 06, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 72-64 92%     10 - 19 10 - 7 -17.5 -4.9 -11.9
  Mar 08, 2025 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 65-63 71%     11 - 19 11 - 7 -13.7 -8.1 -5.4
  Mar 13, 2025 289   Bethune-Cookman L 67-69 41%    
Projected Record 11 - 20 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 100.0 100.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 5.6 94.4
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 16.0 5.6 94.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.6% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 10.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 23.9%
Lose Out 59.6%