Maryland
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.1#19
Expected Predictive Rating+12.5#43
Pace72.8#78
Improvement+0.6#143

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#34
First Shot+4.5#60
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#45
Layup/Dunks+4.3#46
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#204
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#135
Freethrows-0.5#208
Improvement+1.0#98

Defense
Total Defense+8.1#9
First Shot+5.9#27
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#45
Layups/Dunks+1.3#118
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#318
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#42
Freethrows+2.7#34
Improvement-0.4#215
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
#1 Seed 3.2% 3.7% 1.1%
Top 2 Seed 9.4% 10.7% 3.9%
Top 4 Seed 29.6% 32.4% 17.5%
Top 6 Seed 53.3% 56.7% 38.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89.2% 90.9% 81.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 87.7% 89.6% 79.7%
Average Seed 5.8 5.6 6.6
.500 or above 99.3% 99.6% 97.8%
.500 or above in Conference 87.0% 88.3% 81.2%
Conference Champion 14.2% 15.2% 9.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four2.7% 2.4% 3.7%
First Round88.0% 89.9% 79.7%
Second Round64.5% 67.0% 53.7%
Sweet Sixteen32.9% 34.9% 24.3%
Elite Eight15.4% 16.5% 10.7%
Final Four6.7% 7.2% 4.5%
Championship Game2.8% 3.1% 1.8%
National Champion1.2% 1.3% 0.8%

Next Game: Syracuse (Neutral) - 81.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 8
Quad 26 - 213 - 9
Quad 33 - 015 - 10
Quad 48 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 293   Manhattan W 79-49 98%     1 - 0 +19.9 -3.0 +22.3
  Nov 08, 2024 253   Mount St. Mary's W 86-52 97%     2 - 0 +25.9 +9.6 +16.1
  Nov 11, 2024 357   Florida A&M W 84-53 99%     3 - 0 +14.3 +3.6 +10.0
  Nov 15, 2024 18   Marquette L 74-78 61%     3 - 1 +8.1 +9.0 -1.0
  Nov 19, 2024 350   Canisius W 108-37 99%     4 - 1 +55.7 +16.8 +32.9
  Nov 24, 2024 44   Villanova W 76-75 66%     5 - 1 +11.7 +14.5 -2.7
  Nov 27, 2024 264   Bucknell W 91-67 98%     6 - 1 +15.4 +11.3 +2.6
  Dec 01, 2024 342   Alcorn St. W 96-58 99%     7 - 1 +23.6 +12.3 +9.9
  Dec 04, 2024 38   Ohio St. W 83-59 73%     8 - 1 1 - 0 +32.7 +8.7 +22.6
  Dec 08, 2024 20   @ Purdue L 78-83 42%     8 - 2 1 - 1 +12.3 +11.4 +0.9
  Dec 17, 2024 336   St. Francis (PA) W 111-57 99%     9 - 2 +39.9 +29.5 +9.5
  Dec 21, 2024 95   Syracuse W 83-74 81%    
  Dec 28, 2024 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 90-58 99.9%   
  Jan 02, 2025 82   @ Washington W 77-72 69%    
  Jan 05, 2025 23   @ Oregon L 74-76 43%    
  Jan 10, 2025 14   UCLA W 70-67 60%    
  Jan 13, 2025 114   Minnesota W 75-60 91%    
  Jan 16, 2025 61   @ Northwestern W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 19, 2025 53   Nebraska W 78-70 77%    
  Jan 23, 2025 16   @ Illinois L 76-79 39%    
  Jan 26, 2025 45   @ Indiana W 78-77 56%    
  Jan 29, 2025 36   Wisconsin W 79-73 70%    
  Feb 06, 2025 38   @ Ohio St. W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 09, 2025 64   Rutgers W 80-71 80%    
  Feb 13, 2025 53   @ Nebraska W 75-73 58%    
  Feb 16, 2025 42   Iowa W 85-78 75%    
  Feb 20, 2025 76   USC W 80-69 83%    
  Feb 26, 2025 15   Michigan St. W 75-72 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 30   @ Penn St. L 77-78 48%    
  Mar 05, 2025 21   @ Michigan L 75-77 43%    
  Mar 08, 2025 61   Northwestern W 73-64 79%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.4 3.7 4.6 2.9 1.2 0.2 14.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 4.7 5.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.4 5.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.7 5.3 2.1 0.2 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.8 3.2 0.3 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.8 4.3 0.7 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.3 1.7 0.1 7.0 7th
8th 0.1 2.5 2.9 0.3 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.2 0.9 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.8 2.1 0.2 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.1 2.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.3 2.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.8 6.2 9.5 12.2 14.5 15.3 13.6 10.5 6.7 3.2 1.2 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 98.0% 1.2    1.1 0.1
17-3 90.4% 2.9    2.3 0.6 0.0
16-4 68.8% 4.6    2.6 1.7 0.3 0.0
15-5 35.6% 3.7    1.1 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 10.1% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.2% 14.2 7.4 4.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 43.2% 56.8% 1.2 0.2 0.1 100.0%
18-2 1.2% 100.0% 38.2% 61.8% 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.2% 100.0% 30.0% 70.0% 2.0 1.0 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.7% 100.0% 26.6% 73.4% 2.7 0.9 2.2 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.5% 100.0% 22.2% 77.8% 3.6 0.4 1.6 3.3 3.0 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 13.6% 99.9% 17.4% 82.5% 4.6 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.5 3.8 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 15.3% 99.6% 11.9% 87.7% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 3.6 4.2 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.6%
12-8 14.5% 98.2% 6.7% 91.4% 6.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 2.9 4.1 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.3 98.0%
11-9 12.2% 94.3% 5.0% 89.4% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.6 3.2 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.7 94.0%
10-10 9.5% 84.9% 3.2% 81.7% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 2.2 1.9 0.7 0.0 1.4 84.4%
9-11 6.2% 57.7% 1.6% 56.0% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.1 2.6 57.0%
8-12 3.8% 27.5% 1.1% 26.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 2.7 26.7%
7-13 1.9% 4.3% 0.1% 4.2% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8 4.2%
6-14 0.8% 0.8
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 89.2% 11.9% 77.3% 5.8 3.2 6.2 9.4 10.8 12.0 11.6 11.7 9.6 6.9 4.9 2.6 0.2 10.8 87.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 88.6 11.4