Maryland
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.8#25
Expected Predictive Rating+11.8#44
Pace72.2#87
Improvement-3.2#324

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#30
First Shot+5.3#51
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#73
Layup/Dunks+5.1#25
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#185
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#130
Freethrows-0.8#240
Improvement-1.6#276

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#21
First Shot+6.4#26
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#91
Layups/Dunks+1.3#119
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#329
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#30
Freethrows+3.3#13
Improvement-1.5#268
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.4% 3.9% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 12.8% 24.7% 8.6%
Top 6 Seed 42.6% 62.2% 35.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.2% 96.2% 85.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 87.5% 95.8% 84.7%
Average Seed 6.7 5.9 7.0
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 77.9% 90.0% 73.6%
Conference Champion 0.9% 2.6% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four3.7% 1.8% 4.4%
First Round86.7% 95.4% 83.6%
Second Round58.0% 68.7% 54.2%
Sweet Sixteen24.5% 33.3% 21.3%
Elite Eight9.6% 13.1% 8.3%
Final Four3.5% 4.7% 3.1%
Championship Game1.3% 2.0% 1.1%
National Champion0.5% 0.6% 0.4%

Next Game: Illinois (Away) - 26.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 35 - 9
Quad 25 - 211 - 11
Quad 33 - 014 - 11
Quad 48 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 297   Manhattan W 79-49 98%     1 - 0 +19.6 -4.2 +23.1
  Nov 08, 2024 266   Mount St. Mary's W 86-52 97%     2 - 0 +25.3 +11.4 +13.8
  Nov 11, 2024 357   Florida A&M W 84-53 99%     3 - 0 +14.4 +2.3 +11.4
  Nov 15, 2024 20   Marquette L 74-78 57%     3 - 1 +8.9 +10.5 -1.8
  Nov 19, 2024 346   Canisius W 108-37 99%     4 - 1 +56.3 +16.2 +34.2
  Nov 24, 2024 44   Villanova W 76-75 63%     5 - 1 +12.3 +14.5 -2.1
  Nov 27, 2024 265   Bucknell W 91-67 97%     6 - 1 +15.4 +11.1 +2.8
  Dec 01, 2024 328   Alcorn St. W 96-58 99%     7 - 1 +25.0 +14.1 +9.4
  Dec 04, 2024 36   Ohio St. W 83-59 68%     8 - 1 1 - 0 +33.8 +10.1 +22.3
  Dec 08, 2024 10   @ Purdue L 78-83 29%     8 - 2 1 - 1 +15.4 +14.2 +1.2
  Dec 17, 2024 344   St. Francis (PA) W 111-57 99%     9 - 2 +39.4 +29.2 +9.3
  Dec 21, 2024 103   Syracuse W 87-60 84%     10 - 2 +31.0 +11.2 +18.2
  Dec 28, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 81-66 99%     11 - 2 -3.1 -0.3 -2.7
  Jan 02, 2025 94   @ Washington L 69-75 72%     11 - 3 1 - 2 +2.7 +1.0 +1.8
  Jan 05, 2025 28   @ Oregon L 79-83 45%     11 - 4 1 - 3 +12.1 +18.8 -6.9
  Jan 10, 2025 31   UCLA W 79-61 67%     12 - 4 2 - 3 +28.3 +17.3 +11.8
  Jan 13, 2025 98   Minnesota W 77-71 88%     13 - 4 3 - 3 +8.3 +4.3 +3.9
  Jan 16, 2025 55   @ Northwestern L 74-76 OT 58%     13 - 5 3 - 4 +10.8 +4.5 +6.4
  Jan 19, 2025 53   Nebraska W 69-66 75%     14 - 5 4 - 4 +10.7 +3.2 +7.7
  Jan 23, 2025 9   @ Illinois L 76-83 26%    
  Jan 26, 2025 56   @ Indiana W 76-74 57%    
  Jan 29, 2025 18   Wisconsin W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 06, 2025 36   @ Ohio St. L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 09, 2025 67   Rutgers W 80-71 81%    
  Feb 13, 2025 53   @ Nebraska W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 16, 2025 52   Iowa W 88-81 75%    
  Feb 20, 2025 61   USC W 79-71 79%    
  Feb 26, 2025 12   Michigan St. W 75-74 52%    
  Mar 01, 2025 48   @ Penn St. W 80-79 54%    
  Mar 05, 2025 11   @ Michigan L 76-81 31%    
  Mar 08, 2025 55   Northwestern W 73-66 76%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.8 0.1 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.1 2.8 0.4 5.6 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 5.0 1.4 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 6.7 3.9 0.2 12.2 5th
6th 0.7 6.4 6.9 1.2 0.0 15.1 6th
7th 0.1 3.3 8.2 2.4 0.1 14.1 7th
8th 0.8 7.1 4.0 0.2 12.1 8th
9th 0.1 3.0 5.3 0.6 9.0 9th
10th 0.5 4.2 1.8 0.0 6.6 10th
11th 0.0 1.6 2.9 0.2 4.7 11th
12th 0.2 2.5 1.0 0.0 3.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.1 2.2 13th
14th 0.2 0.8 0.5 1.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.0 1.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 16th
17th 0.1 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 6.5 12.1 18.5 20.7 18.5 12.4 5.8 1.8 0.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 70.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 27.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
14-6 2.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.3% 100.0% 22.2% 77.8% 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
15-5 1.8% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 3.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 100.0%
14-6 5.8% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 4.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.0 100.0%
13-7 12.4% 99.9% 11.6% 88.3% 5.0 0.1 1.1 3.0 3.9 3.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 18.5% 99.2% 6.4% 92.7% 5.9 0.0 0.5 1.6 4.2 6.1 4.1 1.6 0.2 0.2 99.1%
11-9 20.7% 98.0% 4.8% 93.1% 6.9 0.1 0.5 2.2 5.0 6.2 4.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.4 97.9%
10-10 18.5% 93.2% 3.1% 90.1% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.0 3.7 5.0 3.5 1.9 0.4 1.3 93.0%
9-11 12.1% 74.9% 1.7% 73.3% 9.2 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.3 2.7 1.5 0.0 3.0 74.5%
8-12 6.5% 41.9% 0.6% 41.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.4 0.1 3.8 41.5%
7-13 2.5% 11.9% 11.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.2 11.9%
6-14 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 12.0 0.0 0.7 1.3%
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 88.2% 5.8% 82.4% 6.7 0.3 1.1 3.8 7.6 12.5 17.3 15.7 12.8 7.9 5.6 3.5 0.2 11.8 87.5%