Princeton
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#127
Expected Predictive Rating+6.1#92
Pace68.1#195
Improvement-0.1#184

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#123
First Shot+3.3#89
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#268
Layup/Dunks+1.4#135
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#26
Freethrows-1.7#287
Improvement-2.3#302

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#160
First Shot-0.6#197
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#108
Layups/Dunks-0.5#189
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#240
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#188
Freethrows+0.3#169
Improvement+2.2#65
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.3% 24.7% 18.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.2
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 95.8% 98.2% 91.6%
Conference Champion 27.5% 34.8% 14.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round22.3% 24.7% 18.0%
Second Round2.0% 2.6% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cornell (Home) - 64.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 23 - 2
Quad 37 - 59 - 7
Quad 410 - 219 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 253   Iona W 81-80 83%     1 - 0 -7.0 +7.5 -14.5
  Nov 08, 2024 116   Duquesne W 75-68 48%     2 - 0 +9.9 +2.6 +7.1
  Nov 10, 2024 202   @ Northeastern W 79-76 55%     3 - 0 +3.8 +6.0 -2.2
  Nov 15, 2024 136   Loyola Chicago L 68-73 63%     3 - 1 -6.0 -6.3 +0.4
  Nov 17, 2024 206   @ Merrimack W 68-57 57%     4 - 1 +11.6 +11.1 +2.5
  Nov 21, 2024 177   Wright St. L 62-80 62%     4 - 2 -18.8 -10.7 -9.1
  Nov 22, 2024 167   Texas St. L 80-83 60%     4 - 3 -3.2 +9.9 -13.3
  Nov 24, 2024 307   Portland W 94-67 84%     5 - 3 +18.8 +10.5 +6.7
  Dec 03, 2024 90   @ Saint Joseph's W 77-69 26%     6 - 3 +17.0 +8.4 +8.5
  Dec 07, 2024 152   @ Furman L 63-69 45%     6 - 4 -2.5 -3.8 +0.9
  Dec 10, 2024 268   Monmouth W 71-67 85%     7 - 4 -4.8 -0.9 -3.6
  Dec 21, 2024 67   Rutgers W 83-82 28%     8 - 4 +9.2 +9.6 -0.4
  Dec 30, 2024 123   Akron W 76-75 60%     9 - 4 +0.8 -1.8 +2.5
  Jan 11, 2025 235   @ Harvard W 68-64 64%     10 - 4 1 - 0 +2.5 +2.9 +0.1
  Jan 18, 2025 274   @ Dartmouth W 81-80 71%     11 - 4 2 - 0 -2.6 +5.6 -8.2
  Jan 20, 2025 203   Columbia W 71-67 75%     12 - 4 3 - 0 -0.8 -5.0 +4.4
  Jan 25, 2025 143   Cornell W 83-79 64%    
  Jan 31, 2025 87   Yale L 74-75 44%    
  Feb 01, 2025 207   Brown W 74-67 75%    
  Feb 07, 2025 267   @ Penn W 74-69 70%    
  Feb 14, 2025 207   @ Brown W 72-70 54%    
  Feb 15, 2025 87   @ Yale L 71-78 26%    
  Feb 21, 2025 235   Harvard W 76-67 81%    
  Feb 22, 2025 274   @ Dartmouth W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 28, 2025 203   @ Columbia W 78-76 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 143   @ Cornell L 80-82 42%    
  Mar 08, 2025 267   Penn W 77-66 85%    
Projected Record 19 - 8 10 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.6 4.3 9.3 8.6 4.0 0.7 27.5 1st
2nd 0.2 3.3 12.0 15.5 8.6 1.4 40.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.9 8.4 7.1 1.7 0.0 20.2 3rd
4th 1.1 3.8 2.4 0.4 7.6 4th
5th 0.3 1.6 0.8 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.2 7.7 14.0 20.1 21.4 17.9 10.0 4.0 0.7 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
13-1 100.0% 4.0    3.8 0.3
12-2 86.1% 8.6    6.2 2.3
11-3 51.8% 9.3    4.5 4.4 0.4
10-4 19.8% 4.3    1.1 2.3 0.8 0.0
9-5 3.2% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 27.5% 27.5 16.4 9.4 1.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.7% 44.3% 44.3% 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4
13-1 4.0% 43.4% 43.4% 12.1 0.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.3
12-2 10.0% 33.2% 33.2% 12.5 0.0 1.8 1.3 0.1 6.7
11-3 17.9% 28.6% 28.6% 12.8 0.0 1.7 2.7 0.7 0.0 12.8
10-4 21.4% 23.3% 23.3% 13.1 1.0 2.7 1.3 0.0 16.4
9-5 20.1% 20.9% 20.9% 13.5 0.3 1.9 1.9 0.1 0.0 15.9
8-6 14.0% 14.6% 14.6% 13.8 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.3 12.0
7-7 7.7% 7.0% 7.0% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 7.2
6-8 3.2% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 3.2
5-9 0.9% 0.9
4-10 0.1% 0.1
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 22.3% 22.3% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.4 6.1 9.7 5.5 0.6 0.0 77.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.4 6.5 48.4 45.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%