Lindenwood
Ohio Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.2#346
Expected Predictive Rating-9.9#318
Pace70.9#112
Improvement+0.9#142

Offense
Total Offense-8.7#357
First Shot-7.2#345
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#276
Layup/Dunks+1.6#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#231
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.6#358
Freethrows-0.3#194
Improvement-0.9#232

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#279
First Shot-4.0#300
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#135
Layups/Dunks-2.3#272
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#332
Freethrows+0.1#180
Improvement+1.8#99
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.0% 1.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 15.5% 23.1% 5.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.3% 1.4% 10.4%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Home) - 57.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 410 - 1210 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 40   @ Oklahoma L 60-93 2%     0 - 1 -18.8 -10.2 -7.1
  Nov 14, 2024 353   New Orleans L 74-82 54%     0 - 2 -21.2 -7.9 -13.1
  Nov 15, 2024 197   @ Robert Morris L 53-67 11%     0 - 3 -13.1 -13.1 -1.6
  Nov 17, 2024 324   Stonehill W 75-74 41%     1 - 3 -8.8 +0.2 -8.9
  Nov 21, 2024 226   @ Valparaiso L 64-77 15%     1 - 4 -14.0 -12.2 -1.4
  Nov 27, 2024 33   @ Missouri L 61-81 1%     1 - 5 -4.2 -7.6 +4.1
  Dec 07, 2024 24   @ Mississippi L 53-86 1%     1 - 6 -15.7 -7.0 -10.6
  Dec 14, 2024 339   IU Indianapolis W 81-63 57%     2 - 6 +4.0 +1.0 +3.8
  Dec 19, 2024 307   Tennessee Tech L 73-79 45%     2 - 7 0 - 1 -16.8 -7.5 -9.1
  Dec 21, 2024 354   Western Illinois W 71-65 64%     3 - 7 1 - 1 -9.9 -7.4 -2.3
  Jan 02, 2025 335   @ Eastern Illinois L 74-78 OT 36%     3 - 8 1 - 2 -12.6 -13.6 +1.7
  Jan 04, 2025 267   @ SIU Edwardsville L 47-58 20%     3 - 9 1 - 3 -14.5 -24.0 +9.2
  Jan 09, 2025 286   Tennessee St. W 72-62 40%     4 - 9 2 - 3 +0.3 -8.4 +8.2
  Jan 11, 2025 304   Tennessee Martin W 82-81 44%     5 - 9 3 - 3 -9.6 +3.9 -13.5
  Jan 16, 2025 321   @ Southern Indiana L 73-80 31%     5 - 10 3 - 4 -13.9 -2.9 -11.1
  Jan 18, 2025 275   @ Morehead St. L 65-82 22%     5 - 11 3 - 5 -21.1 -3.1 -19.5
  Jan 23, 2025 258   Southeast Missouri St. W 72-68 35%     6 - 11 4 - 5 -4.1 -5.1 +0.9
  Jan 25, 2025 230   Arkansas Little Rock L 46-78 29%     6 - 12 4 - 6 -38.5 -23.9 -15.8
  Jan 30, 2025 267   SIU Edwardsville W 65-63 36%     7 - 12 5 - 6 -6.5 -10.2 +3.6
  Feb 01, 2025 335   Eastern Illinois W 68-67 57%    
  Feb 06, 2025 304   @ Tennessee Martin L 68-75 24%    
  Feb 08, 2025 286   @ Tennessee St. L 70-78 23%    
  Feb 13, 2025 275   Morehead St. L 65-68 41%    
  Feb 15, 2025 321   Southern Indiana L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 20, 2025 230   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 61-72 15%    
  Feb 22, 2025 258   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 67-76 19%    
  Feb 25, 2025 354   @ Western Illinois L 66-67 43%    
  Mar 01, 2025 307   @ Tennessee Tech L 68-74 25%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.9 3rd
4th 0.2 1.1 0.4 1.7 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 1.8 0.1 4.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 4.6 0.5 7.7 6th
7th 0.2 3.6 9.3 2.9 0.1 16.2 7th
8th 0.3 5.7 14.3 6.5 0.4 27.2 8th
9th 0.5 5.8 14.5 7.5 0.6 29.0 9th
10th 2.1 5.9 3.3 0.4 11.6 10th
11th 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.3 11th
Total 3.3 12.6 23.7 25.9 19.0 10.4 3.9 1.1 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 22.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.9% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.2% 0.2
12-8 1.1% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.1 1.1
11-9 3.9% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.1 3.7
10-10 10.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 10.2
9-11 19.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 18.9
8-12 25.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 25.8
7-13 23.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 23.7
6-14 12.6% 12.6
5-15 3.3% 3.3
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.3%