Lindenwood
Ohio Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.9#355
Expected Predictive Rating-14.4#339
Pace68.0#222
Improvement+0.4#135

Offense
Total Offense-6.8#345
First Shot-5.0#309
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#265
Layup/Dunks-0.5#190
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#142
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#300
Freethrows-0.9#230
Improvement+0.6#93

Defense
Total Defense-7.1#355
First Shot-6.2#342
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#251
Layups/Dunks+1.6#129
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#62
3 Pt Jumpshots-11.5#362
Freethrows+1.7#96
Improvement-0.2#229
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.2% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 3.4% 9.8% 2.3%
.500 or above in Conference 12.2% 20.0% 10.9%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.0% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 44.5% 33.4% 46.4%
First Four0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
First Round0.2% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Away) - 14.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 30 - 6
Quad 48 - 158 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 51   @ Oklahoma L 60-93 2%     0 - 1 -20.7 -8.8 -10.3
  Nov 14, 2024 357   New Orleans L 74-82 51%     0 - 2 -22.2 -7.9 -14.1
  Nov 15, 2024 288   @ Robert Morris L 53-67 16%     0 - 3 -17.4 -13.9 -5.0
  Nov 17, 2024 343   Stonehill W 75-74 43%     1 - 3 -11.3 +1.8 -13.0
  Nov 21, 2024 276   @ Valparaiso L 67-78 15%    
  Nov 27, 2024 62   @ Missouri L 59-85 1%    
  Dec 07, 2024 47   @ Mississippi L 58-85 1%    
  Dec 14, 2024 361   IU Indianapolis W 73-69 64%    
  Dec 19, 2024 334   Tennessee Tech L 69-70 48%    
  Dec 21, 2024 326   Western Illinois L 66-68 44%    
  Jan 02, 2025 315   @ Eastern Illinois L 66-74 22%    
  Jan 04, 2025 272   @ SIU Edwardsville L 63-74 16%    
  Jan 09, 2025 296   Tennessee St. L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 11, 2025 301   Tennessee Martin L 74-77 38%    
  Jan 16, 2025 322   @ Southern Indiana L 67-75 24%    
  Jan 18, 2025 268   @ Morehead St. L 61-72 16%    
  Jan 23, 2025 320   Southeast Missouri St. L 73-75 43%    
  Jan 25, 2025 205   Arkansas Little Rock L 67-76 22%    
  Jan 30, 2025 272   SIU Edwardsville L 66-71 32%    
  Feb 01, 2025 315   Eastern Illinois L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 06, 2025 301   @ Tennessee Martin L 71-80 21%    
  Feb 08, 2025 296   @ Tennessee St. L 68-78 20%    
  Feb 13, 2025 268   Morehead St. L 64-69 32%    
  Feb 15, 2025 322   Southern Indiana L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 20, 2025 205   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 64-79 10%    
  Feb 22, 2025 320   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 70-78 25%    
  Feb 25, 2025 326   @ Western Illinois L 63-71 25%    
  Mar 01, 2025 334   @ Tennessee Tech L 66-73 29%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 1.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 3.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.8 3.7 0.8 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.0 4.7 1.4 0.1 0.0 13.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.2 6.5 4.8 1.6 0.1 0.0 19.0 10th
11th 1.2 3.9 7.1 8.5 8.1 4.2 1.2 0.1 34.3 11th
Total 1.2 4.0 7.4 10.0 12.7 13.1 12.3 11.3 9.2 6.7 4.9 3.4 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 86.7% 0.0    0.0
16-4 81.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 53.3% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 22.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 6.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 24.3% 24.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.3% 25.7% 25.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.2
14-6 0.5% 9.8% 9.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-7 1.1% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.1 1.0
12-8 1.9% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.1 1.8
11-9 3.4% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 3.3
10-10 4.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 4.8
9-11 6.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.7
8-12 9.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.2
7-13 11.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.3
6-14 12.3% 12.3
5-15 13.1% 13.1
4-16 12.7% 12.7
3-17 10.0% 10.0
2-18 7.4% 7.4
1-19 4.0% 4.0
0-20 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%