Lindenwood
Ohio Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.4#351
Expected Predictive Rating-13.4#343
Pace69.1#176
Improvement+2.0#63

Offense
Total Offense-7.2#350
First Shot-5.0#319
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#299
Layup/Dunks+2.8#89
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#183
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.7#349
Freethrows-0.7#222
Improvement+0.2#158

Defense
Total Defense-5.2#329
First Shot-4.3#314
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#261
Layups/Dunks-1.6#231
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#69
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#342
Freethrows+0.9#121
Improvement+1.8#57
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.4% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 3.2% 5.1% 1.3%
.500 or above in Conference 13.2% 19.5% 6.4%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.0% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 43.7% 31.6% 56.7%
First Four0.9% 1.4% 0.4%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Home) - 51.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 30 - 30 - 6
Quad 48 - 149 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 34   @ Oklahoma L 60-93 1%     0 - 1 -17.7 -9.7 -6.5
  Nov 14, 2024 345   New Orleans L 74-82 48%     0 - 2 -19.9 -7.0 -12.7
  Nov 15, 2024 259   @ Robert Morris L 53-67 17%     0 - 3 -16.3 -12.5 -5.4
  Nov 17, 2024 322   Stonehill W 75-74 37%     1 - 3 -8.1 +1.2 -9.2
  Nov 21, 2024 226   @ Valparaiso L 64-77 13%     1 - 4 -13.5 -12.5 -0.6
  Nov 27, 2024 55   @ Missouri L 61-81 2%     1 - 5 -7.2 -9.8 +3.3
  Dec 07, 2024 27   @ Mississippi L 53-86 1%     1 - 6 -16.7 -10.0 -8.6
  Dec 14, 2024 354   IU Indianapolis W 81-63 63%     2 - 6 +2.2 +1.9 +0.9
  Dec 19, 2024 328   Tennessee Tech L 73-79 50%     2 - 7 0 - 1 -18.5 -8.7 -9.6
  Dec 21, 2024 331   Western Illinois W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 02, 2025 327   @ Eastern Illinois L 66-72 29%    
  Jan 04, 2025 269   @ SIU Edwardsville L 63-73 19%    
  Jan 09, 2025 316   Tennessee St. L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 324   Tennessee Martin L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 16, 2025 282   @ Southern Indiana L 67-76 21%    
  Jan 18, 2025 281   @ Morehead St. L 64-73 21%    
  Jan 23, 2025 289   Southeast Missouri St. L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 25, 2025 243   Arkansas Little Rock L 66-71 33%    
  Jan 30, 2025 269   SIU Edwardsville L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 01, 2025 327   Eastern Illinois W 69-68 50%    
  Feb 06, 2025 324   @ Tennessee Martin L 68-74 29%    
  Feb 08, 2025 316   @ Tennessee St. L 71-78 27%    
  Feb 13, 2025 281   Morehead St. L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 15, 2025 282   Southern Indiana L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 20, 2025 243   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 63-74 17%    
  Feb 22, 2025 289   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 67-76 22%    
  Feb 25, 2025 331   @ Western Illinois L 65-70 31%    
  Mar 01, 2025 328   @ Tennessee Tech L 69-75 30%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 3.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.4 1.0 0.1 4.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.0 3.3 0.5 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.3 4.6 1.4 0.0 10.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.1 5.6 2.3 0.2 13.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 5.8 6.9 3.2 0.3 0.0 19.5 10th
11th 0.5 1.9 4.7 7.7 8.5 6.6 2.7 0.3 0.0 32.8 11th
Total 0.5 1.9 4.7 8.4 11.1 13.4 14.5 12.9 10.9 8.6 5.8 3.6 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 90.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 75.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 41.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 20.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.0% 28.6% 28.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 19.4% 19.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.5% 16.8% 16.8% 16.0 0.1 0.4
13-7 1.1% 14.3% 14.3% 16.0 0.2 1.0
12-8 2.0% 9.2% 9.2% 16.0 0.2 1.8
11-9 3.6% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.2 3.4
10-10 5.8% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 5.7
9-11 8.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 8.4
8-12 10.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.9
7-13 12.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.9
6-14 14.5% 14.5
5-15 13.4% 13.4
4-16 11.1% 11.1
3-17 8.4% 8.4
2-18 4.7% 4.7
1-19 1.9% 1.9
0-20 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.9 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%