UMKC
Summit League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#223
Expected Predictive Rating-5.5#255
Pace64.1#294
Improvement+2.8#58

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#250
First Shot-5.3#319
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#52
Layup/Dunks-10.2#364
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#246
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#45
Freethrows+1.1#107
Improvement+1.3#101

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#191
First Shot+0.5#161
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#279
Layups/Dunks-1.5#230
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#104
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#120
Freethrows-0.5#221
Improvement+1.5#98
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 5.7% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 15.2% 27.3% 8.4%
.500 or above in Conference 48.0% 68.7% 36.3%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 0.4% 3.2%
First Four2.1% 1.7% 2.3%
First Round3.7% 5.2% 2.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Home) - 36.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 33 - 54 - 10
Quad 48 - 712 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 4   @ Iowa St. L 56-82 2%     0 - 1 -2.8 -1.4 -3.0
  Nov 16, 2024 33   @ Creighton L 56-79 5%     0 - 2 -7.3 -9.3 +2.1
  Nov 22, 2024 236   American L 60-64 53%     0 - 3 -8.3 -12.3 +3.9
  Nov 23, 2024 258   Albany L 65-67 58%     0 - 4 -7.6 -5.6 -2.1
  Nov 30, 2024 271   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 59-80 50%     0 - 5 -24.4 -19.3 -3.1
  Dec 04, 2024 248   Idaho L 77-82 65%     0 - 6 -12.6 -0.3 -12.5
  Dec 07, 2024 176   @ Montana St. L 62-74 30%     0 - 7 -10.0 -1.8 -9.6
  Dec 10, 2024 307   @ Portland W 69-64 58%     1 - 7 -0.5 -3.5 +3.4
  Dec 14, 2024 288   Bowling Green W 85-77 73%     2 - 7 -1.9 +11.8 -13.3
  Dec 17, 2024 138   @ Wichita St. W 74-64 23%     3 - 7 +14.4 +7.5 +7.5
  Dec 21, 2024 147   East Tennessee St. W 73-66 43%     4 - 7 +5.4 +12.1 -5.4
  Jan 02, 2025 269   South Dakota W 68-54 69%     5 - 7 1 - 0 +5.2 -8.4 +14.9
  Jan 04, 2025 312   Oral Roberts W 90-67 77%     6 - 7 2 - 0 +11.7 +13.3 -0.2
  Jan 08, 2025 221   @ Nebraska Omaha L 58-77 39%     6 - 8 2 - 1 -19.6 -13.5 -7.2
  Jan 16, 2025 112   @ North Dakota St. L 64-71 19%     6 - 9 2 - 2 -1.2 -8.1 +6.6
  Jan 18, 2025 278   @ North Dakota L 72-76 51%     6 - 10 2 - 3 -7.8 +0.9 -9.1
  Jan 23, 2025 114   South Dakota St. L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 25, 2025 124   St. Thomas L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 30, 2025 340   @ Denver W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 01, 2025 312   @ Oral Roberts W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 06, 2025 112   North Dakota St. L 69-73 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 278   North Dakota W 76-70 72%    
  Feb 13, 2025 269   @ South Dakota L 78-79 48%    
  Feb 19, 2025 221   Nebraska Omaha W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 23, 2025 114   @ South Dakota St. L 67-76 19%    
  Feb 27, 2025 340   Denver W 75-64 84%    
  Mar 01, 2025 124   @ St. Thomas L 68-77 21%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.4 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 3.6 1.2 0.0 6.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.6 7.8 3.2 0.1 15.1 4th
5th 0.3 3.8 12.5 15.0 6.1 0.6 38.2 5th
6th 0.2 3.2 9.4 7.8 1.9 0.1 22.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.5 2.9 0.6 0.0 9.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 9th
Total 0.1 1.0 4.2 9.1 16.3 21.3 20.6 15.5 8.1 2.9 0.8 0.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-4 54.8% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2
11-5 6.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0
12-4 0.8% 21.4% 21.4% 13.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
11-5 2.9% 17.1% 17.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 2.4
10-6 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 15.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 7.5
9-7 15.5% 5.3% 5.3% 15.4 0.0 0.5 0.3 14.7
8-8 20.6% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.9 19.7
7-9 21.3% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.8 20.6
6-10 16.3% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.4 15.9
5-11 9.1% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 8.9
4-12 4.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 4.2
3-13 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 15.5 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.9 95.5 0.0%