Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#191
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.7#250
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#202
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#174
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.9% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.3% 25.9% 10.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 3.6% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.6 11.9 13.8
.500 or above 59.4% 91.7% 57.7%
.500 or above in Conference 66.9% 91.6% 65.7%
Conference Champion 12.4% 32.9% 11.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 0.4% 4.5%
First Four1.3% 1.5% 1.3%
First Round10.7% 25.0% 9.9%
Second Round1.2% 6.1% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 1.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Away) - 4.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 64 - 10
Quad 411 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 23   @ San Diego St. L 56-74 5%    
  Nov 11, 2022 194   Pepperdine W 75-72 62%    
  Nov 13, 2022 104   Vermont L 66-69 41%    
  Nov 18, 2022 228   @ Pacific L 69-70 47%    
  Nov 26, 2022 253   Utah Tech W 62-58 62%    
  Nov 27, 2022 322   @ North Dakota W 74-68 70%    
  Nov 30, 2022 173   @ Seattle L 69-73 38%    
  Dec 07, 2022 37   @ USC L 60-76 10%    
  Dec 10, 2022 177   Southern Utah L 72-73 48%    
  Dec 21, 2022 275   Sacramento St. W 70-62 75%    
  Dec 29, 2022 129   UC Santa Barbara L 68-69 48%    
  Dec 31, 2022 311   Cal St. Northridge W 73-62 82%    
  Jan 05, 2023 207   @ UC Riverside L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 07, 2023 157   Hawaii W 67-65 55%    
  Jan 11, 2023 143   @ UC Irvine L 63-68 34%    
  Jan 14, 2023 232   @ UC Davis L 67-68 47%    
  Jan 16, 2023 284   Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-60 77%    
  Jan 19, 2023 188   @ Long Beach St. L 73-76 40%    
  Jan 21, 2023 311   @ Cal St. Northridge W 70-65 66%    
  Jan 26, 2023 143   UC Irvine W 66-65 52%    
  Jan 28, 2023 273   @ Cal Poly W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 02, 2023 188   Long Beach St. W 76-73 59%    
  Feb 04, 2023 207   UC Riverside W 69-65 62%    
  Feb 12, 2023 157   @ Hawaii L 64-68 37%    
  Feb 15, 2023 264   @ UC San Diego W 72-70 55%    
  Feb 18, 2023 273   Cal Poly W 69-61 74%    
  Feb 20, 2023 129   @ UC Santa Barbara L 65-72 30%    
  Feb 23, 2023 232   UC Davis W 70-65 66%    
  Feb 25, 2023 284   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 66-63 61%    
  Mar 04, 2023 264   UC San Diego W 75-67 72%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.9 3.1 2.2 1.2 0.3 12.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.4 3.9 2.4 0.8 0.1 12.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.5 4.2 3.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.5 2.7 0.7 0.1 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.3 4.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.2 4.0 1.7 0.2 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.2 3.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.7 2.4 0.8 0.1 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.1 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.2 4.4 5.8 7.2 8.1 9.5 9.8 9.9 9.1 8.2 7.3 5.5 3.9 2.3 1.2 0.3 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
18-2 94.7% 2.2    1.9 0.3
17-3 80.2% 3.1    2.3 0.8 0.0
16-4 51.9% 2.9    1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 25.9% 1.9    0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0
14-6 8.0% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
13-7 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.4% 12.4 8.2 3.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 78.6% 59.0% 19.6% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 47.9%
19-1 1.2% 61.6% 52.1% 9.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 19.8%
18-2 2.3% 43.8% 41.3% 2.5% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 4.3%
17-3 3.9% 35.2% 34.3% 0.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.5 1.4%
16-4 5.5% 26.3% 26.2% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.1 0.1%
15-5 7.3% 19.9% 19.9% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.9
14-6 8.2% 16.6% 16.6% 14.1 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 6.8
13-7 9.1% 12.5% 12.5% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 7.9
12-8 9.9% 8.8% 8.8% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 9.0
11-9 9.8% 5.7% 5.7% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 9.2
10-10 9.5% 4.5% 4.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.0
9-11 8.1% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.0 0.3 7.8
8-12 7.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.0
7-13 5.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 5.7
6-14 4.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.3
5-15 3.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 3.2
4-16 2.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-17 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.3% 11.0% 0.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.5 2.4 1.9 1.8 88.7 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.7 28.9 15.8 42.1 13.2
Lose Out 0.0%