IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.8	#213
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	72.9	#64
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.3	#116

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.1	#299

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	12.8%	33.3%	12.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	1.4%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.2	12.4	14.2

.500 or above	54.4%	92.7%	53.9%
.500 or above in Conference	73.2%	96.3%	72.9%
Conference Champion	15.6%	42.7%	15.2%
Last Place in Conference	2.8%	0.2%	2.9%

First Four	1.8%	0.0%	1.8%
First Round	11.9%	33.3%	11.6%
Second Round	1.1%	7.1%	1.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.3%	1.5%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Houston (Away) - 1.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 5
Quad 3	2 - 4	3 - 10
Quad 4	12 - 5	15 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2022	5	@ Houston	L	60-83	1%
Nov 11, 2022	343	Texas A&M - Commerce	W	83-69	89%
Nov 14, 2022	4	@ Baylor	L	67-90	2%
Nov 19, 2022	210	San Jose St.	W	76-73	59%
Nov 25, 2022	216	North Dakota St.	W	76-75	50%
Nov 26, 2022	209	Jacksonville St.	L	74-75	49%
Nov 27, 2022	110	@ New Mexico	L	80-89	24%
Dec 03, 2022	78	@ Colorado St.	L	69-82	15%
Dec 10, 2022	311	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	77-73	63%
Dec 18, 2022	59	@ Colorado	L	69-83	12%
Dec 20, 2022	231	Air Force	W	72-68	63%
Dec 29, 2022	208	@ Weber St.	L	79-82	40%
Dec 31, 2022	324	@ Idaho St.	W	75-70	66%
Jan 05, 2023	140	Montana St.	L	77-78	48%
Jan 07, 2023	170	Montana	W	74-73	54%
Jan 12, 2023	275	@ Sacramento St.	W	74-73	54%
Jan 14, 2023	278	@ Portland St.	W	80-79	55%
Jan 19, 2023	185	Eastern Washington	W	82-80	55%
Jan 21, 2023	342	Idaho	W	87-73	86%
Jan 28, 2023	320	@ Northern Arizona	W	77-72	65%
Feb 02, 2023	170	@ Montana	L	71-76	35%
Feb 04, 2023	140	@ Montana St.	L	75-81	31%
Feb 06, 2023	208	Weber St.	W	82-79	59%
Feb 09, 2023	278	Portland St.	W	83-76	72%
Feb 11, 2023	275	Sacramento St.	W	77-70	72%
Feb 16, 2023	342	@ Idaho	W	84-76	73%
Feb 18, 2023	185	@ Eastern Washington	L	79-83	36%
Feb 25, 2023	320	Northern Arizona	W	80-69	81%
Feb 27, 2023	324	Idaho St.	W	78-67	81%
Projected Record						15 - 14	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	1.2	3.1	4.4	3.9	2.0	0.7		15.6	1st
2nd										0.0	0.0	0.7	2.8	5.1	4.3	1.8	0.4				15.2	2nd
3rd										0.1	1.2	3.9	5.4	3.4	0.8	0.0					14.9	3rd
4th									0.2	1.6	4.5	5.1	2.2	0.3	0.0						13.9	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	2.0	4.4	4.0	1.4	0.1								12.2	5th
6th						0.0	0.4	2.2	4.0	2.9	0.6	0.0									10.1	6th
7th					0.0	0.5	2.2	3.1	1.7	0.3	0.0										8.0	7th
8th				0.0	0.6	1.7	2.0	0.9	0.1	0.0											5.4	8th
9th		0.0	0.1	0.6	1.1	1.0	0.4	0.0													3.2	9th
10th	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0														1.5	10th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.5	1.1	2.1	3.3	4.9	6.6	8.0	9.3	10.4	11.2	10.9	10.0	8.1	6.3	4.3	2.0	0.7			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.7		0.7
17-1	100.0%	2.0		2.0	0.1
16-2	91.6%	3.9		3.2	0.7	0.0
15-3	70.2%	4.4		2.8	1.5	0.1
14-4	37.8%	3.1		1.2	1.4	0.4	0.0
13-5	12.0%	1.2		0.3	0.5	0.3	0.1
12-6	2.6%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	15.6%	15.6		10.2	4.2	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.7%		70.3%	66.5%	3.8%	11.7				0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.2		11.3%
17-1	2.0%		53.1%	52.0%	1.1%	12.5							0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0		1.0		2.2%
16-2	4.3%		41.4%	41.3%	0.1%	13.2											0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0	2.5		0.2%
15-3	6.3%		32.4%	32.4%		13.7												0.0	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.3	0.1	4.2
14-4	8.1%		23.4%	23.4%		14.2													0.1	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.2	6.2
13-5	10.0%		17.1%	17.1%		14.6													0.0	0.2	0.5	0.7	0.3	8.3
12-6	10.9%		12.4%	12.4%		15.0													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.5	9.5
11-7	11.2%		9.2%	9.2%		15.4													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	10.2
10-8	10.4%		6.3%	6.3%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	9.8
9-9	9.3%		4.0%	4.0%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.4	9.0
8-10	8.0%		2.9%	2.9%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.2	7.8
7-11	6.6%		2.4%	2.4%		16.0																	0.2	6.4
6-12	4.9%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.0	4.9
5-13	3.3%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	3.3
4-14	2.1%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	2.1
3-15	1.1%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	1.1
2-16	0.5%																							0.5
1-17	0.2%																							0.2
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		12.8%	12.8%	0.1%	14.2				0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	1.2	2.5	3.0	2.8	2.9	87.2		0.1%