Preseason Rankings
Ohio St.
Big Ten
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.1#38
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.6#246
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#27
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#62
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.6% 2.7% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 6.3% 6.5% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 16.2% 16.6% 4.0%
Top 6 Seed 27.1% 27.7% 9.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 54.5% 55.4% 26.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 51.7% 52.7% 24.4%
Average Seed 6.4 6.4 7.7
.500 or above 80.6% 81.6% 50.2%
.500 or above in Conference 61.5% 62.3% 38.6%
Conference Champion 6.9% 7.1% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 4.6% 4.4% 13.1%
First Four4.5% 4.5% 2.9%
First Round52.3% 53.2% 25.2%
Second Round33.6% 34.2% 14.4%
Sweet Sixteen16.0% 16.3% 5.9%
Elite Eight7.2% 7.4% 2.3%
Final Four3.2% 3.2% 0.7%
Championship Game1.3% 1.3% 0.3%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.3%

Next Game: Oakland (Home) - 96.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 8
Quad 25 - 39 - 11
Quad 33 - 112 - 12
Quad 46 - 018 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 256   Oakland W 83-64 97%    
  Nov 10, 2023 22   Texas A&M W 70-69 54%    
  Nov 15, 2023 330   Merrimack W 76-52 99%    
  Nov 19, 2023 319   Western Michigan W 81-58 98%    
  Nov 24, 2023 12   Alabama L 75-79 36%    
  Nov 29, 2023 323   Central Michigan W 82-59 98%    
  Dec 03, 2023 113   Minnesota W 74-64 82%    
  Dec 06, 2023 260   Miami (OH) W 81-62 95%    
  Dec 09, 2023 76   @ Penn St. W 69-68 54%    
  Dec 16, 2023 19   UCLA L 67-69 43%    
  Dec 21, 2023 299   New Orleans W 88-66 97%    
  Dec 30, 2023 63   West Virginia W 74-71 59%    
  Jan 03, 2024 51   Rutgers W 69-64 65%    
  Jan 06, 2024 39   @ Indiana L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 10, 2024 28   Wisconsin W 66-64 56%    
  Jan 15, 2024 48   @ Michigan L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 20, 2024 76   Penn St. W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 23, 2024 67   @ Nebraska W 71-70 50%    
  Jan 27, 2024 47   @ Northwestern L 66-68 44%    
  Jan 30, 2024 21   Illinois W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 02, 2024 42   @ Iowa L 76-79 41%    
  Feb 06, 2024 39   Indiana W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 10, 2024 29   Maryland W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 13, 2024 28   @ Wisconsin L 63-67 36%    
  Feb 18, 2024 2   Purdue L 66-70 36%    
  Feb 22, 2024 113   @ Minnesota W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 25, 2024 5   @ Michigan St. L 64-73 24%    
  Feb 29, 2024 67   Nebraska W 73-67 69%    
  Mar 03, 2024 48   Michigan W 73-69 64%    
  Mar 10, 2024 51   @ Rutgers L 66-67 45%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.8 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 6.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 3.0 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 8.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.1 3.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 9.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.5 3.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.2 1.5 0.2 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.2 1.5 3.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.6 0.7 0.0 6.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 2.0 2.4 0.9 0.0 5.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.9 0.9 0.1 4.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.5 0.7 0.1 4.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 2.7 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.5 3.6 5.2 7.1 8.4 9.6 10.2 10.4 10.0 8.9 7.4 6.0 4.2 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 98.4% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 89.3% 1.2    1.0 0.2 0.0
17-3 70.4% 1.7    1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 43.4% 1.8    0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 19.6% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.9% 6.9 4.0 2.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 36.3% 63.7% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 28.9% 71.1% 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.4% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 1.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.5% 100.0% 17.7% 82.3% 2.1 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.2% 99.9% 14.0% 85.9% 3.0 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 6.0% 99.8% 11.9% 87.8% 3.9 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 7.4% 98.5% 9.1% 89.4% 5.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.4%
13-7 8.9% 96.0% 7.7% 88.3% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.4 95.7%
12-8 10.0% 88.4% 5.6% 82.7% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.7 2.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.2 87.7%
11-9 10.4% 71.6% 5.1% 66.5% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 1.8 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.0 70.1%
10-10 10.2% 49.3% 4.0% 45.3% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.2 47.2%
9-11 9.6% 20.2% 2.4% 17.8% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 18.2%
8-12 8.4% 6.1% 2.1% 4.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9 4.1%
7-13 7.1% 1.7% 1.2% 0.5% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.9 0.5%
6-14 5.2% 1.3% 1.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2
5-15 3.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
4-16 2.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.5
3-17 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-18 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 54.5% 5.7% 48.8% 6.4 2.6 3.7 4.8 5.1 5.5 5.4 5.8 6.1 5.8 5.0 3.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 45.5 51.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 90.9 9.1