Preseason Rankings
UT Rio Grande Valley
Western Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#263
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace79.9#5
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#245
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#285
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.2% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 18.3% 27.8% 10.0%
.500 or above in Conference 18.4% 24.8% 12.9%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.8% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 33.4% 25.8% 40.0%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
First Round1.3% 2.0% 0.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Away) - 46.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 73 - 13
Quad 47 - 510 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 304   @ South Dakota L 76-77 47%    
  Nov 14, 2023 24   @ TCU L 69-90 2%    
  Nov 17, 2023 53   @ Oklahoma L 65-83 6%    
  Nov 24, 2023 142   Hawaii L 68-75 25%    
  Nov 29, 2023 93   Grand Canyon L 71-79 24%    
  Dec 02, 2023 214   @ Tarleton St. L 72-78 30%    
  Dec 06, 2023 283   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 79-81 43%    
  Dec 15, 2023 283   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 82-78 63%    
  Dec 18, 2023 324   @ Chicago St. W 76-75 53%    
  Dec 30, 2023 348   Incarnate Word W 82-72 80%    
  Jan 04, 2024 115   Stephen F. Austin L 77-83 31%    
  Jan 06, 2024 168   @ Abilene Christian L 75-84 23%    
  Jan 11, 2024 126   Seattle L 76-81 33%    
  Jan 13, 2024 164   Utah Valley L 78-81 40%    
  Jan 18, 2024 200   @ Texas Arlington L 71-78 28%    
  Jan 20, 2024 214   Tarleton St. L 75-76 49%    
  Jan 25, 2024 186   California Baptist L 72-74 45%    
  Feb 01, 2024 210   @ Utah Tech L 56-62 30%    
  Feb 03, 2024 226   @ Southern Utah L 82-87 33%    
  Feb 08, 2024 115   @ Stephen F. Austin L 74-86 16%    
  Feb 15, 2024 168   Abilene Christian L 78-81 41%    
  Feb 17, 2024 200   Texas Arlington L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 22, 2024 164   @ Utah Valley L 75-84 23%    
  Feb 24, 2024 126   @ Seattle L 73-84 18%    
  Feb 29, 2024 93   @ Grand Canyon L 68-82 13%    
  Mar 02, 2024 186   @ California Baptist L 69-77 26%    
  Mar 07, 2024 210   Utah Tech L 59-60 49%    
  Mar 09, 2024 226   Southern Utah W 85-84 52%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.0 4.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.8 0.5 0.0 5.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.1 2.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.7 3.0 0.7 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.4 3.5 0.9 0.1 11.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.0 5.3 3.8 1.0 0.1 14.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.7 5.7 3.5 0.9 0.1 17.6 10th
11th 1.2 3.5 5.9 6.6 4.6 2.4 0.6 0.1 24.8 11th
Total 1.2 3.5 6.4 8.9 10.2 11.4 11.6 10.6 9.5 8.1 6.1 4.4 3.2 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 86.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 72.9% 0.2    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 45.2% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 18.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 45.0% 43.3% 1.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9%
18-2 0.0% 29.9% 29.9% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 31.3% 31.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.3% 19.2% 18.0% 1.2% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5%
15-5 0.8% 17.0% 17.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7
14-6 1.4% 8.2% 8.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
13-7 2.1% 6.6% 6.6% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.0
12-8 3.2% 7.1% 7.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.9
11-9 4.4% 3.6% 3.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.2
10-10 6.1% 2.8% 2.8% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.9
9-11 8.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 8.0
8-12 9.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.4
7-13 10.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.5
6-14 11.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.6
5-15 11.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.4
4-16 10.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.2
3-17 8.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.9
2-18 6.4% 6.4
1-19 3.5% 3.5
0-20 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%