Big East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
15 St. John's 99.9%   3   26 - 4 17 - 2 26 - 5 17 - 3 +17.6      +4.9 65 +12.7 2 73.1 58 +18.9 8 +21.7 1
22 Marquette 99.8%   5   22 - 7 13 - 5 23 - 8 14 - 6 +15.6      +7.4 30 +8.2 17 68.9 153 +16.5 19 +14.9 3
30 Connecticut 97.4%   8   20 - 9 12 - 6 21 - 10 13 - 7 +14.1      +10.6 13 +3.4 82 62.4 328 +13.7 35 +14.6 4
34 Creighton 94.1%   8   20 - 9 13 - 5 22 - 9 15 - 5 +13.5      +6.7 44 +6.8 32 69.0 150 +14.4 33 +16.7 2
38 Xavier 48.0%   11   19 - 10 11 - 7 20 - 11 12 - 8 +12.6      +5.8 53 +6.8 33 71.6 81 +12.2 47 +13.2 5
46 Villanova 34.3%   18 - 12 11 - 8 19 - 12 12 - 8 +11.7      +8.3 21 +3.4 83 60.1 355 +9.7 59 +12.1 6
65 Butler 1.1%   13 - 16 6 - 12 14 - 17 7 - 13 +8.4      +6.8 39 +1.6 126 68.8 159 +6.1 87 +5.2 9
78 Georgetown 0.8%   16 - 13 7 - 11 17 - 14 8 - 12 +7.1      +1.4 130 +5.7 48 69.6 133 +7.4 78 +7.8 7
86 Providence 0.3%   12 - 17 6 - 12 13 - 18 7 - 13 +6.3      +4.5 70 +1.9 117 66.1 232 +4.7 102 +6.3 8
123 DePaul 0.1%   11 - 18 2 - 16 12 - 19 3 - 17 +2.5      +1.3 135 +1.2 141 68.1 184 +1.5 145 -2.1 10
156 Seton Hall 0.0%   7 - 22 2 - 16 7 - 24 2 - 18 +0.3      -3.8 271 +4.1 74 62.5 326 -2.8 215 -2.2 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
St. John's 1.0 100.0
Marquette 2.8 41.8 34.8 23.3
Connecticut 3.3 18.7 36.0 44.3 1.1
Creighton 2.1 88.3 10.7 1.0
Xavier 4.7 0.0 1.8 32.2 60.9 5.1
Villanova 5.6 1.0 35.4 63.6
Butler 8.2 18.8 42.6 38.6
Georgetown 7.1 93.7 5.8 0.5
Providence 7.9 25.4 57.2 17.4
DePaul 10.1 90.3 9.7
Seton Hall 10.5 52.4 47.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
St. John's 17 - 3 53.0 47.0
Marquette 14 - 6 26.0 49.6 24.5
Connecticut 13 - 7 2.7 45.9 51.4
Creighton 15 - 5 4.3 31.6 64.1
Xavier 12 - 8 9.5 46.4 44.1
Villanova 12 - 8 43.7 56.4
Butler 7 - 13 41.9 46.9 11.2
Georgetown 8 - 12 26.0 48.4 25.6
Providence 7 - 13 21.1 64.3 14.7
DePaul 3 - 17 42.4 45.8 11.9
Seton Hall 2 - 18 78.2 20.6 1.2




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
St. John's 100.0% 100.0
Marquette
Connecticut
Creighton
Xavier
Villanova
Butler
Georgetown
Providence
DePaul
Seton Hall


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
St. John's 99.9% 35.6% 64.4% 3   3.2 17.4 33.1 26.6 11.4 5.2 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 99.9%
Marquette 99.8% 20.2% 79.6% 5   0.1 1.3 8.5 15.2 21.0 21.0 17.6 10.8 3.7 0.6 0.0 0.2 99.7%
Connecticut 97.4% 14.0% 83.4% 8   0.3 1.9 3.9 6.2 16.3 33.8 26.1 8.2 0.6 0.0 2.6 97.0%
Creighton 94.1% 15.7% 78.4% 8   0.3 1.3 3.6 5.6 12.2 29.7 30.2 10.3 1.0 5.9 93.0%
Xavier 48.0% 6.7% 41.4% 11   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.1 5.2 13.4 24.7 1.7 52.0 44.3%
Villanova 34.3% 5.7% 28.7% 0.1 1.0 3.5 10.1 18.5 1.2 65.7 30.4%
Butler 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.3 98.9 0.0%
Georgetown 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 99.2 0.1%
Providence 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%
DePaul 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Seton Hall 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
St. John's 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 91.6% 56.6% 24.6% 10.3% 3.9% 1.4%
Marquette 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 73.1% 32.8% 11.9% 4.5% 1.2% 0.4%
Connecticut 97.4% 0.3% 97.2% 53.0% 12.8% 4.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
Creighton 94.1% 0.5% 93.9% 47.5% 10.9% 3.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Xavier 48.0% 22.7% 38.1% 15.7% 4.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Villanova 34.3% 16.2% 26.0% 9.5% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Butler 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Providence 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seton Hall 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.8 0.0 2.0 34.5 49.1 14.2 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 4.6 0.1 2.9 45.0 44.0 8.0 0.1
2nd Round 99.7% 2.9 0.3 5.9 26.4 41.5 22.4 3.5 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 80.5% 1.2 19.5 47.4 27.3 5.3 0.5 0.0
Elite Eight 41.1% 0.5 58.9 35.5 5.3 0.3 0.0
Final Four 17.0% 0.2 83.0 16.2 0.8
Final Game 5.7% 0.1 94.3 5.7 0.0
Champion 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9