Big East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Connecticut 97.8%   1   3 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 5 17 - 3 +20.4      +10.7 4 +9.7 3 62.8 342 +0.2 193 0.0 1
16 Creighton 75.2%   7   3 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 13 - 7 +14.0      +8.5 16 +5.4 38 68.6 201 +0.7 184 0.0 1
18 St. John's 79.2%   5   3 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 13 - 7 +13.9      +7.6 20 +6.4 23 72.6 94 +7.8 65 0.0 1
29 Marquette 70.5%   8   3 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 12 - 8 +12.5      +5.9 38 +6.7 17 71.5 114 +11.2 35 0.0 1
41 Xavier 46.2%   11   3 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 9 +10.7      +6.9 27 +3.8 74 76.3 35 +1.9 154 0.0 1
77 Villanova 14.0%   2 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 15 9 - 11 +7.4      +4.8 58 +2.6 96 64.5 317 -4.9 272 0.0 1
84 Providence 18.5%   3 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 8 - 12 +7.0      +0.7 156 +6.3 26 65.7 287 +2.9 133 0.0 1
93 Butler 9.0%   2 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 17 7 - 13 +5.5      +3.1 91 +2.4 100 70.4 145 -3.5 250 0.0 1
97 Seton Hall 6.6%   1 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 13 +5.3      -1.9 231 +7.2 15 62.9 339 -5.5 274 0.0 1
105 Georgetown 7.6%   2 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 7 - 13 +4.7      +4.2 69 +0.4 152 66.9 257 +5.0 99 0.0 1
114 DePaul 4.5%   3 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 17 6 - 14 +3.6      +2.5 103 +1.1 135 70.9 132 +2.8 137 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Connecticut 1.6 68.6 17.8 7.5 3.3 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Creighton 3.5 14.9 24.4 19.3 14.8 9.9 6.9 4.3 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.4
St. John's 3.6 14.2 23.2 20.0 14.8 10.4 7.1 4.4 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.4
Marquette 4.1 9.6 18.0 18.5 16.3 12.8 9.1 6.5 4.3 2.7 1.6 0.6
Xavier 5.0 5.1 11.9 14.4 15.8 14.9 11.8 9.4 7.0 4.9 3.3 1.8
Villanova 6.7 1.2 3.9 7.0 9.5 12.2 13.7 13.7 12.8 11.2 9.0 5.9
Providence 6.9 1.1 3.8 6.0 9.0 11.4 13.1 13.0 12.8 12.1 10.0 7.7
Butler 7.6 0.5 2.1 4.2 6.2 8.7 10.7 13.1 14.0 14.3 14.1 12.1
Seton Hall 7.8 0.5 1.8 3.5 5.4 8.1 10.3 12.6 14.2 14.7 15.2 13.8
Georgetown 8.0 0.4 1.5 2.9 4.9 7.2 9.5 11.5 13.7 15.2 16.5 16.8
DePaul 8.4 0.2 1.0 2.2 3.6 5.9 8.4 10.7 13.2 15.5 18.4 21.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Connecticut 17 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.7 7.4 10.4 15.0 17.2 17.7 15.0 7.4
Creighton 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.4 5.5 7.3 9.4 11.3 12.6 12.7 11.5 9.8 6.4 3.6 1.4 0.3
St. John's 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.6 5.5 7.8 9.6 11.4 12.8 12.8 11.5 8.8 6.1 3.4 1.4 0.3
Marquette 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.7 5.3 7.6 9.7 11.1 12.2 12.5 11.1 9.1 6.4 4.2 1.8 0.7 0.1
Xavier 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.2 6.0 8.1 10.1 11.8 12.0 11.8 10.0 8.2 6.1 4.0 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.0
Villanova 9 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.6 4.8 7.3 9.3 11.5 12.1 12.3 11.0 9.0 7.2 4.9 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Providence 8 - 12 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.3 5.6 8.3 10.1 11.2 12.1 11.7 10.4 8.6 6.4 4.4 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Butler 7 - 13 0.3 1.2 3.1 5.3 8.0 10.7 12.0 12.4 11.9 10.4 8.1 6.2 4.4 2.9 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0
Seton Hall 7 - 13 0.3 1.3 3.6 6.3 8.9 11.1 12.4 12.6 11.6 9.8 7.7 5.7 3.8 2.4 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgetown 7 - 13 0.5 2.1 4.3 7.1 9.9 11.9 12.7 12.1 10.8 9.0 7.0 5.0 3.4 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
DePaul 6 - 14 0.8 2.8 5.6 8.6 11.6 12.7 13.4 11.8 10.0 8.0 5.9 3.9 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Connecticut 68.6% 57.3 9.8 1.4 0.1 0.0
Creighton 14.9% 9.2 4.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
St. John's 14.2% 8.7 4.5 0.9 0.1 0.0
Marquette 9.6% 5.6 3.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
Xavier 5.1% 2.8 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Villanova 1.2% 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Providence 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Butler 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Seton Hall 0.5% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Georgetown 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
DePaul 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Connecticut 97.8% 49.6% 48.3% 1   31.0 22.1 13.7 9.8 6.5 4.9 3.8 2.8 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 95.7%
Creighton 75.2% 13.9% 61.3% 7   3.8 5.5 7.2 8.3 8.2 8.3 8.2 7.5 6.9 6.0 4.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.8 71.2%
St. John's 79.2% 13.8% 65.3% 5   4.5 6.7 7.8 8.9 8.8 8.5 7.8 7.4 6.8 6.3 4.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 20.8 75.8%
Marquette 70.5% 9.6% 60.9% 8   2.4 4.2 6.2 7.3 7.6 8.3 7.8 7.3 7.1 5.7 5.6 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.5 67.4%
Xavier 46.2% 6.1% 40.1% 11   0.6 1.1 2.1 3.0 3.6 4.2 5.4 6.1 6.6 6.8 6.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 53.8 42.7%
Villanova 14.0% 2.1% 11.9% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.0 12.2%
Providence 18.5% 1.9% 16.7% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.2 3.0 3.6 4.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.5 17.0%
Butler 9.0% 1.0% 8.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.0 8.0%
Seton Hall 6.6% 0.9% 5.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 2.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.4 5.8%
Georgetown 7.6% 0.8% 6.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.4 6.9%
DePaul 4.5% 0.5% 4.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.5 4.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Connecticut 97.8% 0.4% 97.6% 89.5% 66.2% 44.7% 28.4% 17.5% 10.6%
Creighton 75.2% 4.0% 73.2% 51.7% 26.4% 13.0% 6.0% 2.7% 1.2%
St. John's 79.2% 4.4% 77.0% 54.3% 27.5% 13.1% 6.2% 2.7% 1.3%
Marquette 70.5% 5.3% 67.9% 44.6% 20.7% 9.1% 3.9% 1.6% 0.7%
Xavier 46.2% 5.1% 43.7% 25.7% 10.0% 4.1% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
Villanova 14.0% 2.5% 12.7% 6.4% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Providence 18.5% 3.8% 16.5% 8.1% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Butler 9.0% 2.0% 8.0% 3.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Seton Hall 6.6% 2.5% 5.4% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 7.6% 1.8% 6.7% 3.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 4.5% 1.2% 3.8% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.3 0.1 2.6 17.2 39.3 31.0 8.8 1.0 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.1 0.2 3.8 21.2 40.9 27.0 6.4 0.6 0.0
2nd Round 99.7% 2.9 0.3 6.5 27.6 38.8 21.5 4.9 0.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 90.5% 1.6 9.5 38.7 37.5 12.7 1.5 0.1
Elite Eight 67.0% 0.9 33.0 49.2 16.0 1.8 0.1 0.0
Final Four 42.3% 0.5 57.7 37.7 4.4 0.2 0.0
Final Game 24.6% 0.3 75.4 23.7 0.8
Champion 14.0% 0.1 86.0 14.0