Big East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
13 St. John's 98.7%   5   18 - 3 9 - 1 25 - 6 16 - 4 +17.5      +5.2 59 +12.2 2 72.9 67 +17.0 17 +21.4 1
19 Marquette 100.0%   4   18 - 3 9 - 1 25 - 6 16 - 4 +16.3      +8.0 26 +8.4 15 71.2 102 +20.2 7 +20.5 2
27 Creighton 94.4%   8   15 - 6 8 - 2 21 - 10 14 - 6 +14.3      +7.3 31 +7.0 30 69.1 160 +14.6 32 +18.6 3
29 Connecticut 91.5%   8   15 - 6 7 - 3 21 - 10 13 - 7 +14.3      +11.1 6 +3.1 94 62.7 324 +12.8 45 +13.5 4
41 Xavier 37.5%   13 - 9 5 - 6 19 - 12 11 - 9 +11.5      +5.5 55 +6.0 42 70.8 116 +10.5 55 +11.4 5
45 Villanova 22.9%   12 - 9 5 - 5 17 - 14 10 - 10 +11.1      +9.4 16 +1.7 129 60.8 349 +6.8 83 +10.2 6
74 Butler 1.7%   9 - 12 2 - 8 13 - 18 6 - 14 +7.6      +5.6 52 +2.0 115 67.7 199 +4.5 105 +1.3 9
75 Providence 2.5%   11 - 10 5 - 5 15 - 16 9 - 11 +7.6      +4.6 63 +3.0 96 65.4 258 +5.7 89 +9.5 7
88 Georgetown 2.8%   13 - 8 4 - 6 17 - 14 8 - 12 +6.9      +0.6 163 +6.3 37 68.1 190 +8.1 68 +8.9 8
117 DePaul 0.1%   10 - 12 1 - 10 12 - 19 3 - 17 +2.6      +2.4 110 +0.2 163 68.3 184 +2.5 129 -2.0 10
138 Seton Hall 0.1%   6 - 15 1 - 9 8 - 23 3 - 17 +1.6      -1.1 204 +2.6 104 62.8 322 -2.9 212 -3.4 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
St. John's 1.6 59.0 26.5 10.6 3.5 0.4 0.1
Marquette 1.9 44.0 33.0 17.0 5.3 0.7 0.1
Creighton 2.6 17.4 30.2 35.6 12.6 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
Connecticut 3.6 5.4 12.7 23.3 39.8 13.5 4.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
Xavier 5.3 0.0 0.6 4.5 19.8 37.7 24.1 9.2 3.5 0.8
Villanova 5.5 0.1 0.9 4.7 15.0 28.5 29.7 14.1 5.9 1.3 0.0
Butler 8.5 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.7 12.4 22.4 49.4 8.4 1.6
Providence 6.8 0.0 0.7 3.8 10.9 21.4 32.5 24.4 6.1 0.2
Georgetown 7.3 0.0 0.2 1.8 6.3 16.3 29.4 31.0 14.0 0.9 0.1
DePaul 10.1 0.0 0.2 1.7 13.9 54.7 29.4
Seton Hall 10.4 0.0 0.1 1.2 9.4 40.2 49.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
St. John's 16 - 4 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.7 9.8 18.6 25.2 23.9 13.7 4.0
Marquette 16 - 4 0.1 0.3 1.8 6.2 14.5 23.3 25.5 17.9 8.8 1.7
Creighton 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 7.6 16.1 23.1 24.8 17.2 7.1 1.4
Connecticut 13 - 7 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.7 12.1 20.4 23.8 21.0 11.7 4.2 0.7
Xavier 11 - 9 0.3 1.4 5.2 11.4 21.0 25.5 21.5 11.1 2.6
Villanova 10 - 10 0.1 1.0 3.4 8.9 17.1 21.1 21.2 16.1 8.3 2.5 0.3
Butler 6 - 14 0.7 3.4 10.1 18.0 23.5 21.0 13.6 7.3 2.1 0.4 0.1
Providence 9 - 11 1.2 5.9 15.3 23.5 23.9 16.7 9.0 3.5 0.9 0.1
Georgetown 8 - 12 0.5 3.9 11.1 20.2 24.3 20.7 12.3 5.4 1.3 0.3 0.0
DePaul 3 - 17 5.3 18.5 28.8 25.7 15.3 5.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
Seton Hall 3 - 17 12.3 25.8 29.1 19.1 9.5 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
St. John's 59.0% 41.0 15.0 2.8 0.2 0.0
Marquette 44.0% 27.3 13.6 2.9 0.2 0.0
Creighton 17.4% 7.5 7.3 2.4 0.2 0.0
Connecticut 5.4% 1.8 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.0
Xavier 0.0% 0.0
Villanova 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Butler
Providence
Georgetown
DePaul
Seton Hall


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
St. John's 98.7% 31.7% 67.0% 5   4.1 9.9 14.4 17.6 15.2 13.1 11.3 6.6 4.2 1.8 0.5 0.0 1.3 98.1%
Marquette 100.0% 26.7% 73.3% 4   4.3 13.5 23.3 21.8 17.8 11.2 5.6 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Creighton 94.4% 15.3% 79.1% 8   0.3 0.8 2.4 4.7 8.3 12.6 18.5 21.2 15.2 7.8 2.6 0.1 5.6 93.4%
Connecticut 91.5% 13.7% 77.8% 8   0.1 0.5 1.6 2.9 6.2 10.4 17.0 20.7 16.9 11.0 4.1 0.1 8.5 90.2%
Xavier 37.5% 5.0% 32.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.8 5.6 10.9 15.3 0.9 62.5 34.2%
Villanova 22.9% 4.8% 18.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.7 3.8 6.9 8.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 77.1 19.0%
Butler 1.7% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 98.3 0.8%
Providence 2.5% 1.0% 1.4% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.6 1.4%
Georgetown 2.8% 0.7% 2.2% 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 97.2 2.2%
DePaul 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Seton Hall 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
St. John's 98.7% 0.5% 98.6% 82.3% 46.1% 22.0% 10.2% 4.3% 1.7%
Marquette 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 85.4% 47.5% 20.5% 8.6% 3.3% 1.3%
Creighton 94.4% 2.6% 93.1% 56.8% 20.8% 8.2% 3.1% 1.0% 0.4%
Connecticut 91.5% 4.0% 89.8% 53.0% 18.5% 7.4% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3%
Xavier 37.5% 15.3% 30.3% 13.1% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Villanova 22.9% 8.3% 18.9% 8.2% 2.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Butler 1.7% 0.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Providence 2.5% 1.0% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 2.8% 1.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seton Hall 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.5 0.0 0.1 5.0 45.5 41.9 7.4 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 4.4 0.0 0.2 7.5 52.9 35.2 4.1 0.1
2nd Round 99.7% 3.0 0.3 4.1 23.5 42.8 26.0 3.2 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 84.8% 1.4 15.2 41.4 33.6 9.0 0.8 0.0
Elite Eight 49.4% 0.6 50.6 39.7 8.9 0.8 0.0
Final Four 23.6% 0.3 76.4 22.1 1.5 0.0
Final Game 9.6% 0.1 90.4 9.4 0.2
Champion 3.7% 0.0 96.3 3.7