Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
171 Northern Colorado 26.4%   15   12 - 6 7 - 1 19 - 9 14 - 4 -0.4      +2.0 119 -2.4 243 72.7 71 +3.6 117 +6.6 1
189 Montana St. 17.6%   8 - 13 4 - 5 14 - 16 10 - 8 -1.3      -0.9 197 -0.4 186 67.0 219 -4.8 245 -5.9 7
213 Montana 14.7%   11 - 8 7 - 2 16 - 12 12 - 6 -2.8      +0.3 173 -3.2 270 68.4 177 +2.1 136 +2.5 2
221 Portland St. 11.5%   10 - 8 5 - 3 15 - 13 10 - 8 -3.2      -3.0 251 -0.2 177 71.7 89 -1.7 197 -2.0 3
234 Idaho St. 7.6%   6 - 10 4 - 4 11 - 15 9 - 9 -4.2      -2.4 239 -1.8 227 63.8 297 -5.8 261 -4.5 5
236 Northern Arizona 7.5%   9 - 8 4 - 4 14 - 13 9 - 9 -4.5      -1.8 225 -2.7 257 68.2 188 -3.7 226 -4.8 6
239 Idaho 7.4%   8 - 12 5 - 4 12 - 17 9 - 9 -4.6      +0.9 150 -5.6 329 64.7 279 -4.5 239 -3.3 4
256 Weber St. 4.2%   5 - 14 2 - 6 10 - 19 7 - 11 -5.5      -0.2 185 -5.4 326 64.4 285 -7.1 280 -9.5 8
274 Eastern Washington 2.7%   4 - 16 2 - 7 8 - 21 6 - 12 -6.5      -2.7 243 -3.8 284 69.2 158 -9.1 308 -10.3 9
333 Sacramento St. 0.4%   3 - 15 2 - 6 5 - 23 4 - 14 -10.9      -7.9 347 -3.0 262 62.7 325 -13.7 344 -11.2 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Northern Colorado 1.4 73.6 17.1 5.6 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Montana St. 4.4 3.2 11.7 20.0 19.4 17.7 14.2 8.8 3.9 1.0 0.1
Montana 2.1 31.0 42.2 16.3 6.4 2.8 1.0 0.4 0.1
Portland St. 3.7 8.4 19.4 23.8 17.9 12.7 9.3 5.7 2.4 0.5 0.1
Idaho St. 5.0 2.5 8.4 13.7 16.7 17.0 16.3 13.4 8.8 2.8 0.5
Northern Arizona 5.2 2.4 6.5 12.5 15.1 17.2 17.8 14.5 10.0 3.5 0.6
Idaho 4.7 2.4 8.3 17.4 20.1 18.0 15.6 11.2 5.5 1.4 0.1
Weber St. 7.3 0.1 0.6 2.1 4.6 8.0 12.7 18.3 26.2 20.9 6.6
Eastern Washington 8.1 0.1 0.5 2.0 3.7 8.4 13.2 24.4 34.7 13.1
Sacramento St. 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.2 9.6 25.4 59.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Northern Colorado 14 - 4 0.2 0.9 3.2 7.5 14.7 21.3 23.2 18.4 8.4 2.4
Montana St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.4 2.3 6.8 14.7 22.8 24.0 18.4 8.4 2.2
Montana 12 - 6 0.1 0.7 3.4 10.4 19.2 24.8 23.0 13.1 4.6 0.8
Portland St. 10 - 8 0.1 1.0 4.0 10.0 17.1 21.6 20.9 15.3 7.4 2.3 0.4
Idaho St. 9 - 9 0.2 1.6 5.8 11.9 18.8 21.9 19.1 12.7 6.0 1.8 0.3
Northern Arizona 9 - 9 0.4 2.3 6.3 14.0 19.9 22.1 18.0 11.0 4.7 1.3 0.2
Idaho 9 - 9 0.4 2.6 9.1 17.5 23.7 22.8 15.3 6.5 1.8 0.3
Weber St. 7 - 11 0.2 1.8 6.0 13.6 20.6 22.8 18.7 10.7 4.5 1.0 0.1
Eastern Washington 6 - 12 0.6 4.3 11.8 20.5 24.7 19.5 12.6 4.7 1.2 0.1
Sacramento St. 4 - 14 8.9 22.2 26.0 22.1 12.9 5.3 2.0 0.6 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northern Colorado 73.6% 57.6 13.0 2.4 0.5 0.1
Montana St. 3.2% 0.7 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.1
Montana 31.0% 17.0 11.2 2.3 0.5 0.1
Portland St. 8.4% 3.2 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.1
Idaho St. 2.5% 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
Northern Arizona 2.4% 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1
Idaho 2.4% 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1
Weber St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Washington
Sacramento St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northern Colorado 26.4% 26.4% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.7 4.3 11.0 9.0 1.4 73.6 0.0%
Montana St. 17.6% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.2 6.3 9.8 82.4 0.0%
Montana 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.1 7.5 4.8 85.3 0.0%
Portland St. 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 4.9 5.8 88.5 0.0%
Idaho St. 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.5 4.6 92.4 0.0%
Northern Arizona 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.2 92.5 0.0%
Idaho 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.1 6.3 92.6 0.0%
Weber St. 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 4.1 95.8 0.0%
Eastern Washington 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 2.7 97.3 0.0%
Sacramento St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Northern Colorado 26.4% 0.1% 26.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 17.6% 5.8% 15.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 14.7% 1.1% 14.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 11.5% 1.9% 10.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 7.6% 2.7% 6.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 7.5% 2.4% 6.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 7.4% 4.7% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 4.2% 3.8% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 2.7% 2.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 89.7% 0.9 10.3 89.7
2nd Round 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0