Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
165 Montana St. 22.4%   15   0 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 14 11 - 7 0.0      +1.1 149 -1.1 206 70.5 139 -1.7 224 0.0 1
192 Northern Colorado 15.6%   0 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 -1.8      +0.5 161 -2.2 243 73.1 81 -2.4 236 0.0 1
209 Portland St. 12.0%   1 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 -2.7      -1.9 233 -0.8 196 85.1 4 +3.7 121 0.0 1
218 Montana 11.2%   0 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 8 -3.0      -0.2 175 -2.8 257 65.5 295 +2.9 134 0.0 1
228 Eastern Washington 10.0%   1 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 9 -3.2      +1.6 132 -4.9 327 74.6 60 +2.0 153 0.0 1
233 Weber St. 10.2%   0 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 9 -3.4      -1.3 202 -2.1 239 64.4 319 -3.2 248 0.0 1
265 Idaho St. 6.1%   0 - 2 0 - 0 10 - 16 8 - 10 -5.3      -5.0 318 -0.3 179 61.5 353 -2.0 229 0.0 1
282 Idaho 4.6%   0 - 2 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -6.3      -2.7 260 -3.6 293 66.4 265 -12.9 334 0.0 1
288 Northern Arizona 4.3%   0 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 16 7 - 11 -6.6      -1.5 213 -5.0 333 69.9 165 -2.0 228 0.0 1
296 Sacramento St. 3.6%   0 - 2 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -6.9      -6.5 342 -0.4 183 62.0 349 -11.5 323 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Montana St. 3.3 30.7 18.8 13.6 10.5 8.1 6.3 4.7 3.6 2.3 1.4
Northern Colorado 4.1 20.3 15.9 13.1 11.3 10.2 8.5 7.2 5.7 4.5 3.2
Portland St. 4.5 14.8 14.0 12.9 12.1 11.2 9.5 8.2 7.3 5.8 4.2
Montana 4.7 13.7 13.5 12.5 12.1 11.0 9.8 8.8 7.6 6.3 4.7
Eastern Washington 4.8 12.4 12.7 12.8 12.1 11.1 10.3 9.4 8.3 6.6 4.4
Weber St. 4.9 12.3 12.3 11.6 11.7 11.0 10.5 9.8 8.4 7.1 5.3
Idaho St. 5.9 6.9 8.0 9.1 9.8 10.3 10.9 11.5 12.0 11.2 10.3
Idaho 6.4 4.6 6.1 7.2 8.6 9.4 11.3 11.9 12.8 14.2 13.9
Northern Arizona 6.5 4.5 5.8 7.1 8.1 9.1 10.5 11.7 12.7 14.3 16.3
Sacramento St. 6.7 3.3 4.9 6.4 7.9 9.0 10.5 11.8 13.9 15.3 17.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Montana St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.9 4.6 6.5 8.6 10.3 11.7 12.7 12.2 10.5 8.1 5.3 2.7 0.8
Northern Colorado 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.3 3.3 5.2 7.0 8.5 10.6 11.5 11.4 10.7 9.6 7.6 5.6 3.1 1.4 0.4
Portland St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.9 4.5 6.4 8.0 10.1 11.4 12.2 11.0 10.3 8.3 5.8 3.7 2.0 0.9 0.2
Montana 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.2 4.7 6.8 8.4 10.3 11.7 11.8 11.2 9.6 7.8 5.5 3.4 2.0 0.7 0.2
Eastern Washington 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.1 5.1 7.2 9.2 10.7 11.8 11.7 11.2 9.7 7.5 5.1 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.1
Weber St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.0 3.5 5.5 7.3 9.5 10.8 11.9 11.2 10.9 9.0 6.8 5.1 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.1
Idaho St. 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.3 6.1 8.4 10.4 11.5 11.5 10.9 9.8 8.3 6.2 4.2 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
Idaho 7 - 11 0.3 1.4 3.2 5.4 7.8 10.2 11.6 12.0 11.7 10.2 8.6 6.5 4.8 3.1 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northern Arizona 7 - 11 0.5 1.9 3.8 6.1 8.6 10.2 11.4 11.6 11.0 9.6 8.3 6.3 4.4 2.9 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Sacramento St. 7 - 11 0.5 2.0 4.0 6.5 9.0 11.1 11.9 12.3 11.2 9.6 7.7 5.8 3.9 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Montana St. 30.7% 21.6 7.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Northern Colorado 20.3% 14.0 4.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Portland St. 14.8% 9.7 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.0
Montana 13.7% 8.8 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Washington 12.4% 7.7 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Weber St. 12.3% 7.7 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Idaho St. 6.9% 4.1 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Idaho 4.6% 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Northern Arizona 4.5% 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Sacramento St. 3.3% 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Montana St. 22.4% 22.4% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.6 6.1 5.8 3.6 77.6 0.0%
Northern Colorado 15.6% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 4.0 4.4 3.6 84.4 0.0%
Portland St. 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.1 3.9 2.8 88.0 0.0%
Montana 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.8 3.5 2.9 88.8 0.0%
Eastern Washington 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.3 3.3 2.9 90.0 0.0%
Weber St. 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.0 3.3 3.5 89.8 0.0%
Idaho St. 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 2.7 93.9 0.0%
Idaho 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 3.0 95.4 0.0%
Northern Arizona 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.1 95.7 0.0%
Sacramento St. 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.3 96.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Montana St. 22.4% 2.0% 21.6% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 15.6% 1.8% 14.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 12.0% 1.3% 11.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 11.2% 1.7% 10.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 10.0% 1.8% 9.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 10.2% 2.1% 9.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 6.1% 1.8% 5.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 4.6% 2.1% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 4.3% 1.2% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 3.6% 1.6% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 92.3% 0.9 7.7 92.3 0.0
2nd Round 5.9% 0.1 94.1 5.9
Sweet Sixteen 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0