Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
155 Montana St. 23.8%   15   4 - 8 0 - 0 16 - 14 12 - 6 +0.1      +0.9 149 -0.8 194 67.8 214 -3.9 233 0.0 1
180 Northern Colorado 18.5%   5 - 5 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 7 -1.0      +1.6 129 -2.6 254 73.1 77 +2.3 133 0.0 1
191 Montana 16.1%   4 - 6 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 7 -1.6      +0.9 146 -2.5 250 69.5 165 +1.8 140 0.0 1
210 Weber St. 13.0%   3 - 7 0 - 0 13 - 16 10 - 8 -2.5      +0.3 162 -2.8 264 64.4 295 -4.6 247 0.0 1
250 Portland St. 5.8%   5 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -4.9      -2.7 241 -2.3 240 72.7 84 -1.3 185 0.0 1
251 Idaho St. 6.3%   2 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 16 8 - 10 -4.9      -4.8 310 -0.1 172 63.3 321 -7.0 285 0.0 1
254 Eastern Washington 5.5%   2 - 9 0 - 0 10 - 19 8 - 10 -5.1      +0.2 166 -5.3 333 70.3 145 -6.9 282 0.0 1
258 Idaho 5.2%   3 - 8 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -5.2      +0.7 152 -5.9 343 64.1 303 -5.9 271 0.0 1
264 Northern Arizona 5.2%   5 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 14 8 - 10 -5.6      -1.0 203 -4.5 316 68.4 196 -2.7 209 0.0 1
335 Sacramento St. 0.6%   1 - 9 0 - 0 6 - 22 5 - 13 -10.8      -7.8 353 -3.0 268 62.4 339 -18.0 360 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Montana St. 2.8 34.7 21.2 14.6 10.4 7.2 5.2 3.4 2.0 1.1 0.3
Northern Colorado 3.4 25.6 19.3 15.3 11.8 9.2 7.1 5.2 3.6 2.2 0.9
Montana 3.7 21.3 18.1 15.2 12.5 10.3 8.2 6.2 4.5 2.8 1.0
Weber St. 4.2 15.8 15.5 14.7 12.8 11.5 9.7 8.0 6.2 4.1 1.8
Portland St. 5.6 6.0 8.3 9.8 11.1 12.1 12.4 12.4 12.0 10.2 5.8
Idaho St. 5.6 6.8 8.3 9.8 10.6 11.2 12.3 12.1 11.8 10.7 6.3
Eastern Washington 5.7 5.6 7.7 9.3 11.1 11.8 12.7 12.6 12.5 10.9 5.9
Idaho 5.8 5.1 7.1 8.9 11.0 11.9 12.5 13.0 12.7 11.5 6.3
Northern Arizona 6.0 4.8 6.9 8.4 9.8 11.1 12.3 12.9 13.6 12.6 7.5
Sacramento St. 8.6 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.0 3.4 5.0 7.9 12.5 21.2 45.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Montana St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.9 5.1 8.1 11.1 14.0 15.2 14.2 12.1 8.4 4.5 1.8 0.3
Northern Colorado 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.8 7.4 10.2 12.7 14.3 14.1 12.5 9.2 5.8 2.8 1.0 0.2
Montana 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.9 8.6 11.4 13.6 14.1 13.4 11.0 8.0 4.7 2.1 0.8 0.1
Weber St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.8 7.9 10.4 12.8 13.8 13.7 11.9 9.1 5.8 3.3 1.3 0.4 0.1
Portland St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.3 7.1 10.0 12.6 13.9 13.8 12.0 9.4 6.6 3.8 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Idaho St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.5 7.3 10.0 12.5 13.4 12.9 11.8 9.3 6.5 4.1 2.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Eastern Washington 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.5 7.3 10.5 13.0 14.1 13.6 11.8 9.0 6.1 3.7 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Idaho 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.4 4.8 7.7 11.0 13.0 14.1 13.7 11.7 8.8 5.6 3.4 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.0 5.6 8.4 11.5 13.4 13.9 12.8 10.7 8.2 5.4 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Sacramento St. 5 - 13 1.7 5.7 10.8 14.9 16.6 15.3 12.8 9.1 6.0 3.6 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Montana St. 34.7% 24.0 8.2 2.0 0.4 0.1
Northern Colorado 25.6% 16.7 6.6 1.8 0.4 0.1
Montana 21.3% 13.6 5.8 1.6 0.3 0.1
Weber St. 15.8% 9.6 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.1
Portland St. 6.0% 3.2 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Idaho St. 6.8% 3.8 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
Eastern Washington 5.6% 2.9 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
Idaho 5.1% 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Northern Arizona 4.8% 2.5 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Sacramento St. 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Montana St. 23.8% 23.8% 0.0% 15   0.1 0.6 2.9 6.8 8.4 5.1 76.2 0.0%
Northern Colorado 18.5% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.2 6.3 6.4 1.9 81.5 0.0%
Montana 16.1% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 2.2 5.0 5.9 2.5 83.9 0.0%
Weber St. 13.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 4.9 4.9 87.0 0.0%
Portland St. 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 2.5 94.2 0.0%
Idaho St. 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.7 93.7 0.0%
Eastern Washington 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 4.1 94.5 0.0%
Idaho 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 3.5 94.8 0.0%
Northern Arizona 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.6 94.8 0.0%
Sacramento St. 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Montana St. 23.8% 2.3% 22.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 18.5% 0.6% 18.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 16.1% 1.1% 15.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 13.0% 2.9% 11.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 5.8% 1.1% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 6.3% 2.4% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 5.5% 3.3% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 5.2% 2.6% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 5.2% 1.3% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 92.3% 0.9 7.7 92.3
2nd Round 3.8% 0.0 96.2 3.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0