Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
40 Nevada 51.6%   11   4 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 6 15 - 5 +11.4      +5.7 43 +5.7 37 64.9 301 +14.7 23 0.0 1
42 Boise St. 43.6%   2 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 8 14 - 6 +11.0      +6.1 39 +4.9 53 66.0 274 +10.0 50 0.0 1
45 Utah St. 35.6%   3 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 14 - 6 +10.1      +7.6 23 +2.5 101 75.2 55 +8.1 73 0.0 1
63 San Diego St. 27.0%   1 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 10 13 - 7 +8.7      +1.2 138 +7.4 14 65.7 279 +8.1 72 0.0 1
64 New Mexico 30.6%   3 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 9 13 - 7 +8.6      +4.1 68 +4.4 61 82.7 7 +15.5 19 0.0 1
89 UNLV 10.1%   3 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 13 11 - 9 +5.9      +4.1 66 +1.8 117 65.1 298 +3.9 126 0.0 1
101 Colorado St. 6.5%   3 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 10 +4.8      +2.0 118 +2.8 93 65.3 292 +3.6 128 0.0 1
182 Wyoming 0.6%   2 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 13 -1.2      -0.3 181 -1.0 200 67.8 229 +5.7 96 0.0 1
250 San Jose St. 0.1%   0 - 5 0 - 0 7 - 23 5 - 15 -4.6      -1.5 211 -3.1 274 62.4 342 -19.4 360 0.0 1
255 Fresno St. 0.1%   2 - 2 0 - 0 9 - 21 5 - 15 -4.8      -4.4 299 -0.4 184 79.8 13 -5.7 262 0.0 1
292 Air Force 0.0%   1 - 3 0 - 0 7 - 24 4 - 16 -6.9      -2.3 237 -4.6 320 58.0 361 -12.7 321 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Nevada 2.8 31.4 22.0 16.3 12.3 8.6 5.6 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 3.0 29.0 21.0 16.2 12.6 9.5 6.4 3.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Utah St. 3.3 22.7 19.4 16.7 14.1 11.3 8.4 5.0 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
San Diego St. 3.8 16.3 15.6 15.7 14.8 13.6 11.5 7.7 3.3 1.1 0.4 0.1
New Mexico 3.9 14.3 15.9 16.3 15.7 14.5 11.3 7.8 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.1
UNLV 5.0 5.9 8.5 11.2 13.8 16.5 17.6 15.4 7.1 2.8 1.0 0.3
Colorado St. 5.5 3.8 6.2 8.9 11.6 15.2 18.6 19.7 10.1 4.0 1.6 0.4
Wyoming 8.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.8 8.7 15.8 27.9 19.4 12.4 6.7
San Jose St. 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.9 7.5 18.0 25.3 25.9 18.5
Fresno St. 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.8 7.1 17.8 24.9 25.4 19.9
Air Force 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.9 11.3 20.0 27.8 34.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Nevada 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.7 5.9 8.6 11.5 13.4 14.9 14.5 11.4 7.5 4.0 1.0
Boise St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.6 4.4 6.4 9.0 11.8 13.4 14.3 13.4 10.7 7.1 3.4 0.9
Utah St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.2 3.4 5.7 8.1 10.5 12.7 13.9 13.2 11.7 8.8 5.1 2.2 0.6
San Diego St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.5 5.6 7.7 10.1 11.8 13.0 12.7 11.3 8.9 6.0 3.6 1.4 0.3
New Mexico 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.5 5.3 7.8 10.6 12.8 13.5 13.3 11.6 8.7 5.5 2.7 1.0 0.2
UNLV 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.1 4.9 7.3 10.1 12.1 13.2 13.0 11.5 8.9 6.3 3.9 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.0
Colorado St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.6 4.6 6.7 9.6 11.7 13.2 13.0 11.9 9.4 6.9 4.5 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Wyoming 7 - 13 0.3 1.4 3.6 6.5 10.4 12.7 14.1 13.7 11.7 9.4 6.7 4.5 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 5 - 15 1.4 5.3 10.4 14.9 17.0 15.6 12.9 9.4 6.1 3.6 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 5 - 15 1.6 5.6 11.0 14.7 16.6 15.5 12.7 9.3 6.0 3.4 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Air Force 4 - 16 4.3 10.7 16.6 18.4 16.8 13.1 8.8 5.3 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Nevada 31.4% 21.7 7.6 1.8 0.3 0.0
Boise St. 29.0% 19.8 7.2 1.7 0.3 0.0
Utah St. 22.7% 14.7 6.1 1.6 0.3 0.0
San Diego St. 16.3% 10.1 4.7 1.3 0.2 0.0
New Mexico 14.3% 8.5 4.3 1.3 0.2 0.0
UNLV 5.9% 3.2 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 3.8% 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Wyoming 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Air Force 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Nevada 51.6% 23.4% 28.2% 11   0.7 1.2 2.0 3.1 3.3 3.9 3.9 4.6 6.1 8.4 12.3 2.0 0.0 48.4 36.8%
Boise St. 43.6% 21.8% 21.8% 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.4 2.5 3.1 3.4 4.0 5.3 7.3 10.5 2.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 56.4 27.9%
Utah St. 35.6% 18.0% 17.6% 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.6 3.3 4.4 6.0 9.7 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 64.4 21.4%
San Diego St. 27.0% 13.4% 13.6% 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.2 3.3 4.5 8.1 1.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.0 15.7%
New Mexico 30.6% 12.4% 18.2% 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.7 3.9 5.7 9.9 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.4 20.8%
UNLV 10.1% 6.1% 4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.7 3.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.9 4.3%
Colorado St. 6.5% 4.2% 2.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.6 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 93.5 2.4%
Wyoming 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4 0.1%
San Jose St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Nevada 51.6% 8.2% 47.7% 27.6% 10.9% 4.4% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2%
Boise St. 43.6% 5.9% 40.9% 23.3% 9.2% 3.9% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Utah St. 35.6% 5.2% 33.1% 17.7% 6.5% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
San Diego St. 27.0% 4.4% 24.9% 12.5% 4.4% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
New Mexico 30.6% 6.7% 27.2% 12.7% 4.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
UNLV 10.1% 1.7% 9.2% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 6.5% 1.0% 5.9% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.1 25.5 47.5 23.1 3.8 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 1.9 0.0 32.4 47.8 17.6 2.1 0.1
2nd Round 72.7% 1.0 27.4 49.0 20.8 2.7 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 33.0% 0.4 67.0 29.6 3.3 0.1
Elite Eight 14.0% 0.1 86.0 13.4 0.6 0.0
Final Four 5.5% 0.1 94.5 5.4 0.1
Final Game 2.2% 0.0 97.8 2.2 0.0
Champion 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8