Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
41 New Mexico 90.9%   9   24 - 6 17 - 3 24 - 6 17 - 3 +12.6      +4.4 70 +8.2 17 81.5 4 +14.5 33 +16.2 1
52 Boise St. 31.1%   21 - 9 14 - 6 22 - 9 14 - 6 +10.9      +6.3 47 +4.5 63 65.3 260 +10.1 58 +10.8 5
53 Colorado St. 33.1%   22 - 9 16 - 4 22 - 9 16 - 4 +10.8      +6.4 45 +4.3 70 65.6 248 +10.3 57 +14.3 2
54 San Diego St. 62.9%   11   20 - 8 14 - 6 20 - 9 14 - 6 +10.8      +2.3 109 +8.5 15 65.5 250 +12.7 45 +10.8 4
55 Utah St. 68.6%   11   24 - 6 15 - 5 24 - 6 15 - 5 +10.6      +9.9 16 +0.7 155 69.3 137 +13.7 38 +12.5 3
83 Nevada 3.9%   16 - 15 8 - 12 17 - 15 8 - 12 +6.7      +3.5 83 +3.1 89 61.7 338 +4.3 104 +2.0 7
92 UNLV 2.4%   17 - 14 11 - 9 18 - 14 11 - 9 +5.6      +0.7 155 +4.9 59 64.6 280 +6.0 86 +6.8 6
156 San Jose St. 0.1%   12 - 18 7 - 13 13 - 18 7 - 13 +0.3      +1.3 139 -1.0 204 65.8 241 -0.4 169 +1.2 8
176 Wyoming 0.1%   11 - 19 5 - 15 11 - 20 5 - 15 -0.9      -1.7 219 +0.8 149 62.6 322 -1.3 180 -2.3 9
258 Fresno St. 0.0%   6 - 25 2 - 18 6 - 26 2 - 18 -5.3      -4.3 286 -1.0 201 75.7 23 -8.0 299 -9.2 10
300 Air Force 0.0%   4 - 27 1 - 19 4 - 28 1 - 19 -8.0      -4.9 301 -3.0 269 62.0 331 -11.5 334 -12.9 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
New Mexico 1.0 100.0
Boise St. 4.0 100.0
Colorado St. 2.0 100.0
San Diego St. 4.0 100.0
Utah St. 3.0 100.0
Nevada 7.0 100.0
UNLV 6.0 100.0
San Jose St. 8.0 100.0
Wyoming 9.0 100.0
Fresno St. 10.0 100.0
Air Force 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
New Mexico 17 - 3 100.0
Boise St. 14 - 6 100.0
Colorado St. 16 - 4 100.0
San Diego St. 14 - 6 100.0
Utah St. 15 - 5 100.0
Nevada 8 - 12 100.0
UNLV 11 - 9 100.0
San Jose St. 7 - 13 100.0
Wyoming 5 - 15 100.0
Fresno St. 2 - 18 100.0
Air Force 1 - 19 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
New Mexico 100.0% 100.0
Boise St.
Colorado St.
San Diego St.
Utah St.
Nevada
UNLV
San Jose St.
Wyoming
Fresno St.
Air Force


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
New Mexico 90.9% 31.8% 59.1% 9   0.4 1.5 8.0 25.0 31.1 20.4 4.5 0.0 9.1 86.7%
Boise St. 31.1% 12.6% 18.5% 0.4 2.3 8.6 17.6 2.3 68.9 21.2%
Colorado St. 33.1% 18.5% 14.6% 0.2 1.7 7.8 20.8 2.7 66.9 17.9%
San Diego St. 62.9% 12.3% 50.6% 11   0.4 3.0 9.4 19.7 28.7 1.7 37.1 57.7%
Utah St. 68.6% 18.2% 50.4% 11   0.0 0.1 0.4 3.2 11.3 24.6 27.9 1.2 31.4 61.7%
Nevada 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.2 3.6 0.2 96.1 0.0%
UNLV 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 1.8 97.6 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Wyoming 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
New Mexico 90.9% 3.4% 89.4% 38.8% 7.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Boise St. 31.1% 15.0% 23.0% 7.3% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 33.1% 12.8% 26.3% 8.5% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego St. 62.9% 26.4% 48.4% 16.3% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah St. 68.6% 24.3% 55.0% 18.1% 3.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 3.9% 0.0% 3.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 2.4% 0.0% 2.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.9 3.1 26.2 47.3 21.3 2.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 2.5 8.8 43.3 39.2 8.4 0.4 0.0
2nd Round 66.7% 0.9 33.3 46.3 18.0 2.4 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 16.4% 0.2 83.7 15.4 0.9 0.0
Elite Eight 5.0% 0.1 95.0 5.0 0.1
Final Four 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0