Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
39 San Diego St. 62.3%   11   7 - 2 1 - 0 21 - 7 15 - 5 +11.8      +3.8 75 +8.0 12 65.7 262 +16.5 20 +12.2 2
52 Utah St. 40.3%   9 - 1 1 - 0 22 - 8 14 - 6 +10.0      +5.3 51 +4.7 57 72.2 92 +14.0 36 +12.0 4
58 Boise St. 25.3%   8 - 3 1 - 0 20 - 10 13 - 7 +9.4      +4.5 63 +4.9 52 68.3 198 +8.0 76 +6.3 5
59 Nevada 22.1%   8 - 4 0 - 1 21 - 10 13 - 7 +9.3      +5.3 52 +4.0 74 62.4 338 +6.6 87 -13.1 11
64 New Mexico 20.9%   8 - 3 1 - 0 20 - 10 13 - 7 +8.3      +4.9 59 +3.4 88 81.3 4 +10.0 63 +12.1 3
98 Colorado St. 4.9%   7 - 5 1 - 0 17 - 14 11 - 9 +5.1      +1.2 140 +3.8 79 67.8 216 +4.4 109 +27.5 1
106 UNLV 3.7%   6 - 5 0 - 0 16 - 15 10 - 10 +4.4      +2.3 115 +2.1 112 64.0 309 +3.0 123 0.0 6
159 San Jose St. 0.5%   5 - 6 0 - 1 12 - 18 7 - 13 -0.1      +1.3 139 -1.5 214 65.0 278 -3.1 215 -3.9 9
161 Wyoming 0.5%   5 - 5 0 - 1 13 - 17 7 - 13 -0.2      -1.0 201 +0.8 139 66.6 239 -1.5 188 -2.2 7
270 Air Force 0.0%   3 - 9 0 - 1 7 - 24 4 - 16 -5.9      -3.2 265 -2.7 256 59.1 359 -11.7 333 -2.8 8
273 Fresno St. 0.0%   4 - 8 0 - 1 8 - 23 4 - 16 -6.0      -6.0 336 0.0 165 80.3 10 -5.7 262 -6.4 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
San Diego St. 2.3 43.2 22.2 14.0 8.8 5.9 3.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Utah St. 3.0 25.9 21.7 17.0 13.5 10.1 6.6 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.1
Boise St. 3.3 20.3 20.0 17.5 15.0 11.5 8.4 4.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Nevada 3.9 11.8 15.7 17.4 17.0 15.4 11.7 7.1 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
New Mexico 3.8 14.7 16.9 17.1 16.0 14.2 11.0 6.9 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 4.9 5.5 8.8 12.0 14.5 17.0 17.9 14.2 6.8 2.7 0.5 0.1
UNLV 5.8 2.7 4.9 7.7 10.1 13.9 17.6 21.9 13.0 5.9 1.8 0.4
San Jose St. 8.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 4.0 7.9 15.3 27.3 25.8 11.7 4.6
Wyoming 8.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 4.1 7.8 15.4 26.8 25.5 12.1 4.7
Air Force 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.3 8.1 18.5 35.1 34.8
Fresno St. 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.2 7.5 17.1 34.9 37.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
San Diego St. 15 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.3 4.3 7.3 10.4 14.6 16.2 16.3 13.2 8.6 4.1 0.9
Utah St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.9 7.9 11.2 14.3 15.6 15.0 12.1 8.3 4.1 1.6 0.3
Boise St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.8 6.2 9.3 12.8 15.0 15.6 13.5 10.4 6.1 3.0 1.0 0.2
Nevada 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.5 8.9 12.6 15.1 16.3 14.5 11.0 6.7 3.1 1.0 0.2
New Mexico 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.9 4.9 8.6 11.6 14.4 15.3 14.3 11.6 8.0 4.1 1.8 0.5 0.1
Colorado St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.1 6.9 10.4 13.4 15.5 14.5 12.4 9.1 5.7 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
UNLV 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.6 4.8 8.3 11.3 13.6 14.6 13.5 11.4 8.2 5.2 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
San Jose St. 7 - 13 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.9 8.8 13.2 15.6 15.8 13.5 10.6 7.1 4.2 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1
Wyoming 7 - 13 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.3 8.8 13.2 15.4 15.4 13.5 10.7 7.1 4.1 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Air Force 4 - 16 2.7 9.5 16.5 20.4 18.6 14.1 9.0 5.1 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 4 - 16 2.9 10.3 17.7 20.4 18.8 13.3 8.4 4.5 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St. 43.2% 31.2 9.4 2.3 0.3 0.0
Utah St. 25.9% 16.8 6.9 1.9 0.3 0.0
Boise St. 20.3% 12.6 5.8 1.6 0.3 0.0
Nevada 11.8% 6.5 3.8 1.3 0.3 0.0
New Mexico 14.7% 8.4 4.6 1.4 0.2 0.0
Colorado St. 5.5% 2.8 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
UNLV 2.7% 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
San Jose St. 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Air Force 0.0% 0.0
Fresno St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 62.3% 28.9% 33.4% 11   0.4 0.8 1.6 2.8 3.4 4.1 5.1 6.7 9.3 13.1 14.4 0.7 0.0 37.7 47.0%
Utah St. 40.3% 19.4% 20.9% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.6 2.2 3.4 5.9 9.5 14.1 1.4 0.0 59.7 25.9%
Boise St. 25.3% 15.9% 9.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.8 5.5 11.5 1.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 74.7 11.2%
Nevada 22.1% 14.8% 7.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.9 4.7 11.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.9 8.6%
New Mexico 20.9% 12.0% 8.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.2 4.6 9.9 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 79.1 10.1%
Colorado St. 4.9% 4.4% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.5 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 95.1 0.5%
UNLV 3.7% 3.5% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 96.3 0.2%
San Jose St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.5 0.0%
Wyoming 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
San Diego St. 62.3% 10.4% 57.1% 30.9% 10.8% 4.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Utah St. 40.3% 8.5% 35.9% 16.5% 4.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Boise St. 25.3% 4.7% 22.9% 9.3% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Nevada 22.1% 4.1% 20.2% 8.0% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
New Mexico 20.9% 4.6% 18.5% 6.9% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 4.9% 0.3% 4.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 3.7% 0.2% 3.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.8 35.3 49.9 13.8 1.0 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.6 0.0 45.1 46.2 8.4 0.3 0.0
2nd Round 60.8% 0.7 39.2 48.7 11.5 0.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 21.5% 0.2 78.5 20.6 1.0 0.0
Elite Eight 8.0% 0.1 92.0 7.8 0.1 0.0
Final Four 2.5% 0.0 97.5 2.5 0.0
Final Game 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8 0.0
Champion 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3