Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
222 Central Connecticut St. 40.9%   16   5 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 9 12 - 4 -3.2      -4.6 309 +1.5 125 65.3 276 +2.0 139 0.0 1
290 Wagner 19.4%   4 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 10 10 - 6 -6.8      -9.3 360 +2.5 110 57.0 363 +0.8 158 0.0 1
323 Stonehill 10.3%   4 - 6 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 7 -9.1      -5.1 319 -4.1 301 65.7 267 -5.7 262 0.0 1
335 St. Francis (PA) 7.2%   2 - 7 0 - 0 10 - 16 8 - 8 -10.5      -5.6 330 -4.9 323 70.8 124 -7.3 291 0.0 1
337 LIU Brooklyn 6.4%   2 - 9 0 - 0 10 - 19 8 - 8 -10.8      -7.5 354 -3.3 279 69.8 159 -9.2 316 0.0 1
338 Le Moyne 5.9%   2 - 8 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 9 -11.1      -6.5 338 -4.6 316 70.3 141 -11.5 330 0.0 1
339 Fairleigh Dickinson 6.1%   1 - 8 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 9 -11.2      -3.3 262 -7.9 358 78.5 17 -13.3 342 0.0 1
359 Chicago St. 2.0%   0 - 12 0 - 0 6 - 25 6 - 10 -14.2      -9.3 361 -4.9 324 72.3 87 -15.7 354 0.0 1
360 Mercyhurst 1.8%   3 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 19 5 - 11 -14.7      -7.8 356 -6.9 353 62.6 333 -7.7 299 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Central Connecticut St. 1.8 60.3 20.2 9.5 4.8 2.7 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1
Wagner 3.0 24.6 25.8 17.1 11.8 8.3 5.6 3.7 2.2 1.1
Stonehill 4.1 11.0 17.3 17.6 15.0 12.7 10.4 7.6 5.4 3.1
St. Francis (PA) 4.8 7.0 12.2 14.4 14.5 14.0 12.6 10.8 8.6 5.8
LIU Brooklyn 4.9 5.8 11.0 13.7 14.3 14.4 13.9 11.6 9.1 6.1
Le Moyne 5.0 5.3 10.6 13.0 14.2 14.1 13.4 12.3 10.0 7.0
Fairleigh Dickinson 5.1 5.4 10.1 12.4 13.7 14.0 13.7 12.6 10.4 7.7
Chicago St. 6.6 1.0 3.2 5.5 7.9 10.6 13.3 16.7 20.1 21.6
Mercyhurst 6.8 0.9 2.7 4.7 7.1 9.4 12.4 16.2 20.7 25.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Central Connecticut St. 12 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.5 6.6 10.5 14.2 17.5 17.7 14.8 9.0 3.0
Wagner 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.5 7.4 10.7 13.7 15.4 15.1 12.8 9.2 5.0 2.0 0.4
Stonehill 9 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.1 5.9 9.2 12.6 14.5 15.3 13.9 10.7 7.0 3.8 1.6 0.4 0.1
St. Francis (PA) 8 - 8 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.8 5.4 9.1 11.9 14.2 15.1 13.9 11.0 7.4 4.5 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
LIU Brooklyn 8 - 8 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.0 5.9 9.5 13.0 15.4 15.1 13.5 10.2 6.9 3.7 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Le Moyne 7 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.6 6.4 10.1 13.2 15.3 14.9 12.8 9.7 6.3 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Fairleigh Dickinson 7 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.9 6.9 10.4 13.6 15.0 14.5 12.5 9.3 6.1 3.4 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Chicago St. 6 - 10 0.5 2.2 5.6 10.3 14.7 16.5 15.9 13.1 9.5 6.1 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Mercyhurst 5 - 11 0.8 3.1 7.3 11.8 15.0 16.4 15.3 12.1 8.2 5.2 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Central Connecticut St. 60.3% 47.3 10.6 2.0 0.3 0.0
Wagner 24.6% 16.1 6.7 1.5 0.3 0.0
Stonehill 11.0% 6.0 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0
St. Francis (PA) 7.0% 3.6 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
LIU Brooklyn 5.8% 2.8 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
Le Moyne 5.3% 2.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Fairleigh Dickinson 5.4% 2.7 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
Chicago St. 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mercyhurst 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Central Connecticut St. 40.9% 40.9% 0.0% 16   0.1 0.7 2.2 5.8 13.0 19.1 59.1 0.0%
Wagner 19.4% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 3.4 14.9 80.6 0.0%
Stonehill 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.9 89.7 0.0%
St. Francis (PA) 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 7.1 92.8 0.0%
LIU Brooklyn 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 6.3 93.6 0.0%
Le Moyne 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 5.9 94.1 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 6.0 93.9 0.0%
Chicago St. 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0 98.0 0.0%
Mercyhurst 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 1.8 98.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Central Connecticut St. 40.9% 10.2% 35.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wagner 19.4% 10.7% 13.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stonehill 10.3% 9.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Francis (PA) 7.2% 6.7% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
LIU Brooklyn 6.4% 6.1% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Le Moyne 5.9% 5.7% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson 6.1% 6.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chicago St. 2.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercyhurst 1.8% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 65.7% 0.7 34.3 65.7
2nd Round 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0