Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
235 Central Connecticut St. 38.8%   16   1 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 10 12 - 4 -3.4      -3.4 279 -0.1 167 66.9 255 +8.8 53 0.0 1
275 Wagner 24.0%   0 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 11 11 - 5 -6.0      -6.8 346 +0.8 147 57.2 363 +2.2 149 0.0 1
337 Le Moyne 7.7%   0 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 8 -10.9      -4.8 315 -6.1 350 68.3 211 -12.7 332 0.0 1
339 LIU Brooklyn 7.9%   1 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 8 -10.9      -6.8 345 -4.1 317 74.3 65 +4.1 115 0.0 1
342 Chicago St. 7.1%   0 - 3 0 - 0 9 - 21 8 - 8 -11.1      -7.0 349 -4.1 314 74.1 67 -12.0 325 0.0 1
348 Fairleigh Dickinson 4.7%   0 - 3 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 9 -12.5      -5.2 325 -7.3 360 78.5 23 +0.4 189 0.0 1
350 St. Francis (PA) 4.2%   1 - 3 0 - 0 9 - 17 7 - 9 -12.7      -7.5 353 -5.1 336 73.1 80 +1.0 172 0.0 1
356 Mercyhurst 2.7%   2 - 1 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 10 -14.1      -9.2 361 -4.9 328 64.2 324 -0.6 212 0.0 1
359 Stonehill 2.8%   0 - 2 0 - 0 9 - 20 6 - 10 -14.4      -9.2 362 -5.2 338 69.6 176 -3.0 242 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Central Connecticut St. 2.0 54.1 21.8 10.4 5.9 3.6 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.2
Wagner 2.8 31.5 25.9 15.6 9.9 6.5 4.8 3.1 2.0 0.8
Le Moyne 4.7 7.6 12.6 15.1 15.2 13.6 11.8 10.1 8.3 5.8
LIU Brooklyn 4.7 7.6 12.7 14.9 13.9 13.2 12.0 10.3 8.9 6.6
Chicago St. 4.8 6.8 11.8 14.3 14.5 14.0 12.2 10.8 9.1 6.7
Fairleigh Dickinson 5.4 4.4 8.3 11.3 12.5 13.5 13.5 13.4 12.3 10.7
St. Francis (PA) 5.5 3.9 7.6 10.9 12.3 13.7 14.0 13.9 12.9 10.9
Mercyhurst 6.2 2.1 5.0 7.5 9.9 11.8 13.7 15.2 17.0 17.9
Stonehill 6.3 2.2 4.8 7.4 9.2 11.1 13.3 15.0 17.2 19.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Central Connecticut St. 12 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.7 4.4 6.6 9.6 12.8 15.3 16.3 14.9 10.5 4.3
Wagner 11 - 5 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.7 5.7 8.0 10.4 13.1 14.5 14.3 11.9 8.6 4.7 1.4
Le Moyne 8 - 8 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.3 5.8 8.3 10.9 13.3 13.9 12.7 11.0 8.1 5.4 3.2 1.5 0.4 0.1
LIU Brooklyn 8 - 8 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.6 6.0 8.8 11.2 12.7 13.2 12.5 10.7 8.1 5.6 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.1
Chicago St. 8 - 8 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.9 6.5 8.9 11.3 13.2 13.6 12.9 10.1 7.7 4.9 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.1
Fairleigh Dickinson 7 - 9 0.3 1.2 3.3 5.9 8.8 11.7 13.0 13.8 12.6 10.5 7.8 5.6 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
St. Francis (PA) 7 - 9 0.2 1.3 3.2 6.1 9.5 11.7 13.7 14.0 12.4 10.5 7.7 5.0 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Mercyhurst 6 - 10 0.7 2.8 5.8 9.3 12.2 13.6 14.2 12.7 10.4 7.6 5.0 3.1 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Stonehill 6 - 10 0.9 3.2 6.3 9.8 12.2 14.1 13.5 12.3 9.8 7.3 5.0 2.8 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Central Connecticut St. 54.1% 42.2 9.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wagner 31.5% 21.8 7.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Le Moyne 7.6% 4.4 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
LIU Brooklyn 7.6% 4.3 2.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Chicago St. 6.8% 3.7 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fairleigh Dickinson 4.4% 2.3 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
St. Francis (PA) 3.9% 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Mercyhurst 2.1% 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Stonehill 2.2% 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Central Connecticut St. 38.8% 38.8% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 5.3 10.0 20.4 61.2 0.0%
Wagner 24.0% 24.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 4.1 17.9 76.0 0.0%
Le Moyne 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.6 92.3 0.0%
LIU Brooklyn 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 7.6 92.1 0.0%
Chicago St. 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 7.0 92.9 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 4.6 95.3 0.0%
St. Francis (PA) 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 4.1 95.8 0.0%
Mercyhurst 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 2.7 97.3 0.0%
Stonehill 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 2.8 97.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Central Connecticut St. 38.8% 13.0% 32.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wagner 24.0% 13.5% 16.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Le Moyne 7.7% 7.2% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
LIU Brooklyn 7.9% 6.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chicago St. 7.1% 6.7% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson 4.7% 4.3% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Francis (PA) 4.2% 3.9% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercyhurst 2.7% 2.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stonehill 2.8% 2.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 64.7% 0.6 35.3 64.7
2nd Round 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0