Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
230 Central Connecticut St. 42.3%   16   10 - 6 3 - 2 18 - 9 11 - 5 -3.9      -5.5 320 +1.6 126 63.8 306 -0.8 188 -8.6 2
312 Stonehill 14.4%   8 - 9 2 - 2 15 - 14 9 - 7 -8.7      -4.4 293 -4.2 296 64.9 271 -5.9 266 -10.8 5
314 LIU Brooklyn 15.5%   7 - 11 5 - 0 13 - 16 11 - 5 -8.7      -7.8 349 -0.9 207 65.8 246 -7.8 295 +7.9 1
328 Fairleigh Dickinson 8.5%   3 - 13 2 - 2 9 - 19 8 - 8 -10.4      -4.0 285 -6.4 341 74.8 43 -12.3 330 -9.9 3
335 Wagner 6.0%   5 - 8 1 - 3 10 - 15 6 - 10 -11.4      -9.9 360 -1.5 226 57.0 362 -10.8 324 -19.9 9
345 St. Francis (PA) 5.4%   4 - 12 2 - 3 9 - 18 7 - 9 -11.9      -6.1 326 -5.8 335 68.3 194 -10.2 320 -12.1 7
350 Le Moyne 3.5%   4 - 13 1 - 3 9 - 20 6 - 10 -12.7      -6.2 328 -6.5 344 71.0 112 -12.4 335 -18.5 8
357 Chicago St. 2.5%   2 - 17 2 - 2 6 - 25 6 - 10 -14.1      -10.7 361 -3.4 274 71.4 104 -14.7 349 -10.3 4
359 Mercyhurst 2.0%   5 - 12 2 - 3 9 - 19 6 - 10 -14.6      -7.7 348 -6.9 348 62.2 335 -10.3 321 -11.3 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Central Connecticut St. 1.8 50.0 32.1 11.2 4.3 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Stonehill 3.6 11.3 19.1 25.2 17.8 11.6 7.5 4.0 2.7 0.9
LIU Brooklyn 1.8 52.5 27.4 11.7 4.8 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.0
Fairleigh Dickinson 4.2 7.1 12.6 20.6 19.2 15.1 10.4 7.6 4.9 2.4
Wagner 6.0 1.5 4.2 8.5 12.0 14.3 15.7 14.6 14.3 15.0
St. Francis (PA) 5.4 1.7 5.0 12.6 16.6 17.7 15.7 13.4 10.3 7.2
Le Moyne 6.6 0.6 2.2 5.6 8.9 12.2 15.0 16.7 18.5 20.3
Chicago St. 6.0 1.0 3.5 7.3 12.8 15.5 16.9 16.1 14.8 12.2
Mercyhurst 6.4 0.6 1.8 6.0 9.9 13.7 16.6 17.6 18.6 15.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Central Connecticut St. 11 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 3.6 8.4 15.4 23.1 24.4 17.8 6.1
Stonehill 9 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 6.4 12.0 17.3 20.4 18.5 13.0 6.4 2.0 0.3
LIU Brooklyn 11 - 5 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.3 9.6 15.5 20.1 20.4 15.5 9.0 3.3 0.6
Fairleigh Dickinson 8 - 8 0.1 0.5 2.0 5.4 10.9 15.4 19.6 18.7 14.1 8.6 3.5 1.0 0.2
Wagner 6 - 10 0.4 1.8 5.4 10.0 15.2 18.7 18.0 14.3 9.0 4.5 2.1 0.5 0.1
St. Francis (PA) 7 - 9 0.3 1.7 5.7 11.8 18.2 20.7 18.3 13.2 6.9 2.6 0.6 0.1
Le Moyne 6 - 10 0.4 2.6 7.6 13.2 19.0 20.3 17.1 10.9 5.8 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
Chicago St. 6 - 10 0.7 4.0 9.8 16.1 20.6 20.1 14.6 8.3 3.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Mercyhurst 6 - 10 1.1 5.3 12.7 18.7 22.3 18.7 12.0 6.3 2.4 0.6 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Central Connecticut St. 50.0% 32.4 14.7 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Stonehill 11.3% 4.9 4.3 1.6 0.4 0.0
LIU Brooklyn 52.5% 36.1 13.5 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Fairleigh Dickinson 7.1% 2.9 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Wagner 1.5% 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
St. Francis (PA) 1.7% 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0
Le Moyne 0.6% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Chicago St. 1.0% 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Mercyhurst 0.6% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Central Connecticut St. 42.3% 42.3% 0.0% 16   0.1 1.1 4.1 14.5 22.5 57.8 0.0%
Stonehill 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 13.9 85.7 0.0%
LIU Brooklyn 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 15.2 84.5 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 8.4 91.5 0.0%
Wagner 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0 6.0 94.0 0.0%
St. Francis (PA) 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 5.4 94.6 0.0%
Le Moyne 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 3.5 96.5 0.0%
Chicago St. 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 2.5 97.5 0.0%
Mercyhurst 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0 98.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Central Connecticut St. 42.3% 11.0% 36.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stonehill 14.4% 12.6% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
LIU Brooklyn 15.5% 13.9% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson 8.5% 8.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wagner 6.0% 5.9% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Francis (PA) 5.4% 5.3% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Le Moyne 3.5% 3.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chicago St. 2.5% 2.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercyhurst 2.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 60.0% 0.6 40.0 60.0
2nd Round 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0