Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
223 Southern 29.5%   16   2 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 12 13 - 5 -3.2      -4.2 292 +1.0 139 69.0 175 -1.7 192 0.0 1
275 Alabama St. 15.8%   3 - 6 0 - 0 16 - 14 12 - 6 -6.0      -1.9 225 -4.1 302 71.3 110 -2.8 212 0.0 1
287 Grambling St. 13.5%   0 - 7 0 - 0 12 - 16 11 - 7 -6.7      -4.6 306 -2.1 238 66.0 262 -13.3 343 0.0 1
289 Bethune-Cookman 12.3%   2 - 8 0 - 0 13 - 18 11 - 7 -6.8      -6.5 339 -0.3 180 72.5 82 -6.6 279 0.0 1
300 Texas Southern 11.1%   0 - 8 0 - 0 11 - 17 11 - 7 -7.5      -4.1 290 -3.4 284 70.8 126 -8.3 306 0.0 1
311 Jackson St. 8.6%   0 - 10 0 - 0 11 - 19 11 - 7 -8.2      -6.4 337 -1.8 229 71.3 113 -6.3 271 0.0 1
340 Prairie View 3.2%   0 - 9 0 - 0 9 - 21 9 - 9 -11.2      -2.1 232 -9.0 363 77.5 21 -13.1 339 0.0 1
343 Alcorn St. 3.1%   0 - 11 0 - 0 9 - 21 9 - 9 -11.3      -5.4 327 -5.9 344 66.6 245 -10.2 323 0.0 1
355 Florida A&M 1.9%   1 - 5 0 - 0 8 - 19 7 - 11 -13.0      -9.1 358 -3.9 295 69.7 162 -1.7 190 0.0 1
361 Alabama A&M 0.9%   1 - 6 0 - 0 8 - 20 7 - 11 -14.7      -8.0 357 -6.7 351 74.6 55 -16.6 355 0.0 1
362 Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.2%   1 - 10 0 - 0 6 - 23 5 - 13 -17.2      -5.6 328 -11.6 364 78.8 14 -14.6 349 0.0 1
364 Mississippi Valley 0.0%   0 - 8 0 - 0 3 - 26 3 - 15 -21.2      -13.1 364 -8.1 360 62.9 326 -3.4 227 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Southern 2.6 42.8 19.6 12.3 8.6 6.1 4.3 2.9 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0
Alabama St. 3.5 22.4 19.7 16.3 12.8 9.9 7.5 5.1 3.2 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1
Grambling St. 4.3 15.9 15.5 13.8 12.6 11.2 9.8 7.8 5.8 4.0 2.3 1.0 0.2
Bethune-Cookman 4.4 12.7 14.5 14.4 13.6 12.3 10.6 8.6 6.3 4.0 2.2 0.8 0.1
Texas Southern 4.3 14.2 15.0 14.5 13.4 11.8 10.4 8.3 5.8 3.8 1.9 0.8 0.2
Jackson St. 4.5 11.0 14.6 15.0 13.9 12.5 10.7 8.5 6.3 4.2 2.2 0.9 0.2
Prairie View 6.5 3.1 5.2 7.1 8.9 10.8 12.3 13.7 13.5 11.4 8.3 4.4 1.4
Alcorn St. 6.3 2.8 5.6 7.8 10.1 11.7 12.8 13.8 13.0 10.7 7.1 3.6 1.1
Florida A&M 8.1 1.1 2.2 3.4 4.5 6.1 8.0 10.6 13.6 15.8 17.1 12.8 4.8
Alabama A&M 8.5 0.6 1.3 2.1 3.4 4.9 7.0 10.0 13.7 16.8 17.8 15.2 7.3
Arkansas Pine Bluff 9.6 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 2.1 3.5 6.2 9.7 14.3 20.7 25.8 15.3
Mississippi Valley 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 3.1 6.1 12.1 24.0 51.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Southern 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.5 4.4 6.6 9.6 12.6 14.9 15.4 14.0 10.4 5.8 1.7
Alabama St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.8 7.7 11.2 14.0 15.8 14.9 12.2 8.4 4.6 1.7 0.4
Grambling St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.1 4.9 7.7 10.4 12.8 13.9 13.9 11.8 9.2 5.9 2.8 1.0 0.2
Bethune-Cookman 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.3 8.2 11.5 14.1 14.9 14.1 11.5 8.0 4.6 1.9 0.6 0.1
Texas Southern 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.4 2.7 4.9 7.9 11.0 13.3 14.9 14.3 11.7 8.4 5.1 2.6 0.9 0.2
Jackson St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.0 5.4 8.3 11.5 14.0 15.3 14.2 11.5 7.7 4.4 1.9 0.6 0.1
Prairie View 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.3 6.4 9.6 12.6 14.1 14.5 12.9 10.4 6.9 4.0 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Alcorn St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.7 5.3 8.7 12.2 14.4 14.9 13.9 11.2 7.5 4.5 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1
Florida A&M 7 - 11 0.1 0.8 2.8 5.9 9.3 12.3 14.0 14.3 12.6 10.1 7.6 4.8 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Alabama A&M 7 - 11 0.2 1.2 3.4 6.9 10.9 13.7 15.3 14.6 12.0 9.1 6.0 3.5 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 5 - 13 0.7 3.3 7.8 12.7 16.2 16.5 14.9 11.5 7.8 4.5 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Mississippi Valley 3 - 15 6.1 14.7 20.1 19.5 15.5 10.9 6.5 3.7 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Southern 42.8% 30.8 9.3 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Alabama St. 22.4% 13.8 6.3 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Grambling St. 15.9% 9.4 4.7 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 12.7% 7.1 3.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Texas Southern 14.2% 8.0 4.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Jackson St. 11.0% 5.9 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Prairie View 3.1% 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alcorn St. 2.8% 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Florida A&M 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Alabama A&M 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Southern 29.5% 29.5% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.1 8.6 15.2 70.5 0.0%
Alabama St. 15.8% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.3 12.9 84.2 0.0%
Grambling St. 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 12.5 86.5 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 11.5 87.7 0.0%
Texas Southern 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 10.3 88.9 0.0%
Jackson St. 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 8.3 91.4 0.0%
Prairie View 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 3.2 96.8 0.0%
Alcorn St. 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 3.0 96.9 0.0%
Florida A&M 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.9 98.1 0.0%
Alabama A&M 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 99.1 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Southern 29.5% 8.8% 25.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 15.8% 9.6% 10.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 13.5% 10.8% 8.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 12.3% 9.7% 7.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Southern 11.1% 9.1% 6.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 8.6% 7.5% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 3.2% 3.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 3.1% 3.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 1.9% 1.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 67.0% 0.7 33.0 67.0
2nd Round 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0