Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
241 Grambling St. 23.7%   16   0 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 13 12 - 6 -3.8      -4.4 301 +0.6 148 65.3 300 +0.3 190 0.0 1
257 Texas Southern 18.1%   0 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 15 12 - 6 -5.0      -4.4 303 -0.6 186 69.1 189 -2.7 239 0.0 1
273 Southern 14.4%   0 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 16 11 - 7 -5.9      -5.1 323 -0.8 197 71.5 117 -18.3 352 0.0 1
281 Alabama St. 14.1%   0 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 15 11 - 7 -6.2      -4.9 316 -1.3 212 68.0 220 -2.9 240 0.0 1
291 Bethune-Cookman 11.9%   0 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 18 11 - 7 -6.8      -4.5 305 -2.3 245 72.5 97 -4.8 267 0.0 1
324 Jackson St. 6.4%   0 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 19 10 - 8 -9.2      -5.5 330 -3.7 297 70.7 136 -2.7 238 0.0 1
340 Alabama A&M 4.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 9 - 9 -10.9      -7.4 352 -3.6 294 74.6 62 0.0 195 0.0 1
345 Prairie View 2.7%   0 - 2 0 - 0 9 - 21 8 - 10 -12.1      -6.4 339 -5.8 348 75.3 46 -16.1 349 0.0 1
352 Alcorn St. 1.9%   0 - 3 0 - 0 8 - 22 8 - 10 -13.0      -5.0 320 -8.0 363 63.4 331 -4.9 271 0.0 1
355 Florida A&M 1.2%   0 - 3 0 - 0 7 - 20 6 - 12 -14.1      -8.5 358 -5.6 346 69.7 172 -0.5 206 0.0 1
361 Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.0%   0 - 3 0 - 0 8 - 21 6 - 12 -14.8      -5.7 332 -9.1 364 77.4 28 -6.3 283 0.0 1
364 Mississippi Valley 0.2%   0 - 1 0 - 0 4 - 24 4 - 14 -19.9      -12.9 363 -7.1 358 65.0 307 +6.4 82 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Grambling St. 3.2 31.0 18.6 14.1 10.6 8.4 6.0 4.5 3.1 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.1
Texas Southern 3.4 26.0 19.5 15.3 11.6 8.9 6.6 4.9 3.4 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.2
Southern 4.3 17.4 15.0 14.0 12.3 11.0 8.9 7.3 5.8 3.9 2.4 1.5 0.5
Alabama St. 4.0 19.2 16.6 14.6 12.5 10.4 8.6 6.3 4.8 3.4 2.1 1.1 0.4
Bethune-Cookman 4.7 13.0 13.2 13.2 13.0 11.9 10.1 8.7 6.8 4.8 3.2 1.7 0.5
Jackson St. 5.2 8.3 10.7 12.1 12.7 12.0 11.6 10.1 8.3 6.1 4.5 2.6 1.1
Alabama A&M 6.6 5.3 6.4 7.3 8.3 9.7 10.5 11.0 10.9 10.3 9.1 7.0 4.1
Prairie View 7.2 2.6 4.3 5.6 7.2 8.9 10.5 11.4 12.6 13.0 10.9 8.3 4.8
Alcorn St. 7.4 1.8 3.5 5.0 6.7 8.5 10.4 11.5 13.0 13.2 11.8 9.5 5.0
Florida A&M 8.7 0.7 1.7 2.4 3.4 5.1 6.6 8.9 11.4 14.5 17.0 18.6 9.9
Arkansas Pine Bluff 8.5 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.0 5.7 7.5 9.1 11.6 14.1 16.6 15.9 10.4
Mississippi Valley 10.6 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.1 3.2 5.1 7.8 12.5 21.7 44.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Grambling St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.6 4.4 6.3 8.6 11.0 12.5 13.9 13.1 11.2 7.7 4.3 1.4
Texas Southern 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.9 4.7 7.0 9.5 11.8 14.1 13.6 13.0 10.2 6.5 3.1 0.8
Southern 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.9 3.2 5.3 7.6 9.4 11.5 12.8 12.9 11.5 9.7 6.5 3.8 1.7 0.4
Alabama St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.7 4.6 6.6 8.7 11.1 13.1 13.1 12.3 10.3 7.7 4.7 2.1 0.5
Bethune-Cookman 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.1 6.4 8.6 11.0 12.7 13.3 12.3 10.6 7.7 5.2 2.8 1.1 0.2
Jackson St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.4 5.4 8.2 10.3 12.3 13.2 12.5 11.0 8.7 6.1 3.4 1.7 0.6 0.1
Alabama A&M 9 - 9 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.3 5.2 7.4 9.6 10.9 11.6 11.6 10.6 8.9 6.8 5.0 3.4 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1
Prairie View 8 - 10 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.9 6.3 8.9 11.9 12.6 12.4 11.8 9.8 7.6 5.4 3.3 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Alcorn St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.2 6.7 9.9 12.3 13.2 13.0 11.8 9.3 6.6 4.8 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida A&M 6 - 12 0.5 2.3 5.6 9.2 11.7 13.7 13.6 12.5 10.4 7.8 5.4 3.4 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 6 - 12 0.5 2.3 4.9 8.2 11.2 13.2 13.5 12.6 10.4 8.6 6.1 3.9 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Mississippi Valley 4 - 14 6.6 13.3 16.6 16.5 14.1 11.0 8.1 5.6 3.6 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Grambling St. 31.0% 21.2 7.5 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Texas Southern 26.0% 16.9 6.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Southern 17.4% 10.7 4.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Alabama St. 19.2% 11.9 5.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 13.0% 7.6 3.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Jackson St. 8.3% 4.5 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Alabama A&M 5.3% 2.9 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Prairie View 2.6% 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Alcorn St. 1.8% 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida A&M 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Grambling St. 23.7% 23.7% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 5.6 14.0 76.3 0.0%
Texas Southern 18.1% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.4 13.2 81.9 0.0%
Southern 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 12.7 85.6 0.0%
Alabama St. 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 10.7 85.9 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 10.1 88.1 0.0%
Jackson St. 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 5.9 93.6 0.0%
Alabama A&M 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.8 95.6 0.0%
Prairie View 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 2.7 97.3 0.0%
Alcorn St. 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 1.9 98.1 0.0%
Florida A&M 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 1.2 98.8 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 99.0 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Grambling St. 23.7% 9.0% 19.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Southern 18.1% 9.6% 13.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern 14.4% 10.6% 9.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 14.1% 7.9% 10.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 11.9% 8.2% 7.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 6.4% 5.2% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 4.4% 3.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 2.7% 2.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 1.9% 1.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 1.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 69.9% 0.7 30.1 69.9
2nd Round 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0