Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
224 Southern 33.6%   16   14 - 9 12 - 1 18 - 10 16 - 2 -3.3      -5.3 314 +2.0 115 71.3 93 -0.9 177 +2.3 1
271 Jackson St. 18.1%   9 - 17 9 - 4 13 - 18 13 - 5 -5.7      -4.2 288 -1.6 219 70.9 105 -6.5 277 -4.8 3
293 Bethune-Cookman 10.7%   11 - 15 8 - 5 14 - 17 11 - 7 -7.3      -5.8 321 -1.5 217 71.5 86 -5.2 258 -6.6 4
296 Texas Southern 11.1%   8 - 15 8 - 5 11 - 17 11 - 7 -7.5      -7.8 347 +0.2 167 72.9 62 -9.4 314 -8.0 6
307 Alcorn St. 8.2%   8 - 17 8 - 5 11 - 19 11 - 7 -8.4      -5.3 313 -3.2 268 64.5 284 -8.5 304 -7.3 5
311 Alabama St. 7.8%   11 - 14 8 - 5 14 - 16 11 - 7 -8.7      -4.2 289 -4.6 311 69.1 151 -7.6 292 -9.0 7
321 Florida A&M 6.4%   10 - 12 9 - 4 12 - 15 11 - 7 -9.4      -4.5 297 -5.0 319 68.9 161 -5.2 257 -4.7 2
327 Grambling St. 3.9%   6 - 17 6 - 7 8 - 20 8 - 10 -10.1      -7.9 350 -2.3 236 63.0 313 -13.4 347 -12.0 8
356 Prairie View 0.0%   3 - 22 3 - 10 5 - 25 5 - 13 -13.8      -6.9 339 -6.9 350 75.6 26 -18.4 359 -17.8 10
359 Alabama A&M 0.2%   6 - 17 5 - 8 7 - 21 6 - 12 -14.6      -9.1 355 -5.5 326 76.6 20 -16.2 356 -16.4 9
363 Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0%   2 - 22 1 - 12 3 - 26 2 - 16 -19.8      -9.5 358 -10.2 363 79.7 7 -24.0 362 -29.0 12
364 Mississippi Valley 0.0%   1 - 23 1 - 12 1 - 28 1 - 17 -28.3      -15.6 364 -12.7 364 62.9 321 -24.8 363 -24.7 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Southern 1.0 98.9 0.9 0.1 0.0
Jackson St. 2.2 6.8 76.1 10.9 3.8 1.7 0.6 0.1
Bethune-Cookman 4.6 0.2 8.1 23.7 17.9 17.3 15.3 14.4 3.0 0.0
Texas Southern 4.1 0.3 14.2 25.4 21.6 19.7 13.6 5.1 0.2
Alcorn St. 3.9 0.4 16.7 28.2 21.0 16.3 12.3 4.8 0.3 0.0
Alabama St. 5.0 0.2 4.5 17.9 16.4 18.7 18.6 20.5 3.2 0.0
Florida A&M 4.2 1.2 13.2 28.5 18.3 15.8 12.0 9.5 1.4
Grambling St. 7.6 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.7 6.4 14.7 67.2 6.3 0.5
Prairie View 9.5 0.0 3.5 40.6 55.3 0.6
Alabama A&M 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 15.3 67.3 16.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 11.1 0.2 3.5 78.0 18.2
Mississippi Valley 11.7 0.0 0.3 32.1 67.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Southern 16 - 2 0.2 2.5 14.0 30.6 35.6 17.1
Jackson St. 13 - 5 0.4 4.6 20.3 39.9 34.9
Bethune-Cookman 11 - 7 1.4 8.8 23.8 33.9 24.5 7.5
Texas Southern 11 - 7 0.0 1.7 17.4 40.1 32.3 8.5
Alcorn St. 11 - 7 0.2 2.7 15.0 34.8 36.2 11.1
Alabama St. 11 - 7 1.8 12.3 29.9 34.7 18.2 3.3
Florida A&M 11 - 7 5.2 19.5 32.4 28.2 12.5 2.4
Grambling St. 8 - 10 3.9 19.7 32.9 28.6 12.4 2.4
Prairie View 5 - 13 0.6 10.5 41.6 35.1 11.0 1.2
Alabama A&M 6 - 12 23.4 38.7 26.9 9.3 1.7 0.1
Arkansas Pine Bluff 2 - 16 16.1 44.9 29.3 8.6 1.1 0.1
Mississippi Valley 1 - 17 59.2 35.2 5.2 0.4 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Southern 98.9% 92.1 5.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Jackson St. 6.8% 0.8 5.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1
Texas Southern 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alcorn St. 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Alabama St. 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida A&M 1.2% 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Grambling St.
Prairie View
Alabama A&M
Arkansas Pine Bluff
Mississippi Valley


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Southern 33.6% 33.6% 0.0% 16   0.3 2.7 12.2 18.4 66.4 0.0%
Jackson St. 18.1% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0 18.1 81.9 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 0.3 10.4 89.3 0.0%
Texas Southern 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0 11.1 88.9 0.0%
Alcorn St. 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 8.2 91.8 0.0%
Alabama St. 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.1 7.8 92.2 0.0%
Florida A&M 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 6.4 93.6 0.0%
Grambling St. 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 3.9 96.1 0.0%
Prairie View 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Alabama A&M 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Southern 33.6% 7.7% 29.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 18.1% 17.4% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 10.7% 9.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Southern 11.1% 10.9% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 8.2% 8.1% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 7.8% 7.4% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 6.4% 5.8% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 3.9% 3.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 62.8% 0.6 37.2 62.8
2nd Round 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0