Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
166 South Dakota St. 22.4%   14   2 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 11 10 - 6 0.0      +0.8 155 -0.8 198 69.3 183 +14.8 19 0.0 1
169 St. Thomas 20.9%   1 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 6 -0.4      +0.6 159 -1.1 204 69.1 188 +2.9 135 0.0 1
205 UMKC 13.9%   0 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 7 -2.5      -1.9 229 -0.6 189 66.5 264 +6.4 81 0.0 1
222 North Dakota St. 11.3%   1 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 14 8 - 8 -3.1      +1.9 122 -5.0 330 64.7 312 -4.0 256 0.0 1
245 Oral Roberts 8.6%   0 - 2 0 - 0 10 - 15 8 - 8 -4.1      0.0 169 -4.1 319 68.4 204 -7.0 289 0.0 1
252 South Dakota 7.8%   1 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 14 8 - 8 -4.4      +0.7 157 -5.1 335 71.0 128 +2.1 151 0.0 1
266 Nebraska Omaha 6.0%   1 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 9 -5.3      -2.1 239 -3.2 275 67.9 221 +1.5 161 0.0 1
271 North Dakota 5.9%   0 - 1 0 - 0 9 - 17 7 - 9 -5.9      -2.8 264 -3.1 270 67.7 228 -4.3 261 0.0 1
309 Denver 3.2%   0 - 2 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 10 -7.8      -2.7 259 -5.1 334 74.7 58 -3.4 249 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
South Dakota St. 3.1 30.9 19.7 15.0 10.7 8.1 6.3 4.6 3.1 1.7
St. Thomas 3.2 28.2 19.3 14.6 11.6 8.9 6.8 5.2 3.5 2.0
UMKC 4.1 17.5 15.7 13.8 11.9 11.1 10.1 8.3 6.9 4.8
North Dakota St. 4.3 13.2 14.2 14.0 13.2 12.7 10.9 9.4 7.5 4.9
Oral Roberts 4.9 9.9 11.7 12.0 12.6 12.4 12.1 11.5 10.1 7.8
South Dakota 5.0 9.1 10.8 11.8 12.3 12.7 12.2 11.9 10.6 8.7
Nebraska Omaha 5.4 6.6 8.5 10.0 11.2 12.2 13.1 13.3 13.6 11.7
North Dakota 5.6 6.1 7.7 9.7 10.2 11.3 12.5 13.8 14.6 14.3
Denver 6.5 2.4 4.5 6.2 8.1 10.0 12.1 14.8 18.2 23.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
South Dakota St. 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.1 5.0 7.2 9.5 11.9 13.4 13.7 12.1 10.1 6.7 3.4 1.0
St. Thomas 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.4 5.8 7.9 10.2 12.4 13.2 13.2 11.8 9.0 6.1 2.8 1.0
UMKC 9 - 7 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.1 6.3 8.9 10.7 12.2 12.3 11.8 10.3 8.1 5.7 3.5 1.5 0.4
North Dakota St. 8 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 4.7 7.2 9.7 12.0 13.4 13.0 12.0 9.4 6.9 4.3 2.2 0.9 0.2
Oral Roberts 8 - 8 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.0 6.7 9.2 11.3 12.3 12.9 12.2 10.2 7.6 5.2 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.1
South Dakota 8 - 8 0.2 0.9 2.3 4.5 7.1 9.5 11.7 12.9 13.2 11.2 9.9 7.2 4.9 2.7 1.2 0.5 0.1
Nebraska Omaha 7 - 9 0.4 1.4 3.4 5.9 8.8 11.4 12.7 13.1 12.4 10.3 8.1 5.7 3.5 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1
North Dakota 7 - 9 0.5 2.0 4.1 7.1 9.8 11.8 12.8 12.6 11.0 9.8 7.3 5.1 3.2 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
Denver 6 - 10 1.0 3.8 7.5 10.5 13.0 13.8 13.2 11.4 9.5 6.8 4.4 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Dakota St. 30.9% 21.6 7.3 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
St. Thomas 28.2% 19.5 6.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
UMKC 17.5% 11.2 4.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Dakota St. 13.2% 8.1 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Oral Roberts 9.9% 6.0 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
South Dakota 9.1% 5.2 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 6.6% 3.8 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Dakota 6.1% 3.5 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Denver 2.4% 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Dakota St. 22.4% 22.4% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.4 6.3 6.2 4.3 1.6 77.6 0.1%
St. Thomas 20.9% 20.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.6 6.0 5.0 3.2 79.1 0.0%
UMKC 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 3.7 4.1 2.6 86.1 0.0%
North Dakota St. 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.3 3.5 4.0 88.7 0.0%
Oral Roberts 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 2.5 3.9 91.4 0.0%
South Dakota 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.6 2.8 92.2 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.6 94.0 0.0%
North Dakota 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 3.0 94.1 0.0%
Denver 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.1 96.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
South Dakota St. 22.4% 0.9% 22.0% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Thomas 20.9% 1.5% 20.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 13.9% 1.5% 13.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 11.3% 2.3% 10.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 8.6% 2.7% 7.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 7.8% 1.5% 7.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 6.0% 1.6% 5.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 5.9% 2.1% 4.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 3.2% 1.5% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 92.7% 0.9 7.3 92.6 0.0
2nd Round 6.1% 0.1 93.9 6.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0