Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
116 North Dakota St. 29.5%   13   8 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 9 11 - 5 +2.9      +5.4 51 -2.5 251 64.4 293 +4.1 110 0.0 1
121 South Dakota St. 28.7%   6 - 5 0 - 0 17 - 11 11 - 5 +2.7      +1.6 128 +1.1 130 70.4 140 +2.4 129 0.0 1
125 St. Thomas 25.7%   7 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 9 11 - 5 +2.3      +2.9 98 -0.6 189 70.1 149 +2.4 131 0.0 1
222 UMKC 5.7%   4 - 7 0 - 0 12 - 15 8 - 8 -3.4      -2.2 232 -1.2 208 64.8 290 -4.5 246 0.0 1
236 South Dakota 4.4%   5 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 15 7 - 9 -4.2      +3.4 85 -7.6 357 78.1 17 -3.4 223 0.0 1
275 North Dakota 1.9%   3 - 9 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 10 -6.3      -0.5 181 -5.8 340 68.9 181 -6.5 275 0.0 1
284 Oral Roberts 1.9%   1 - 8 0 - 0 7 - 18 6 - 10 -6.6      -1.3 211 -5.4 334 68.5 195 -10.8 328 0.0 1
294 Nebraska Omaha 1.4%   4 - 9 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 10 -7.2      -2.9 253 -4.3 308 67.9 211 -6.4 273 0.0 1
317 Denver 0.7%   3 - 9 0 - 0 8 - 20 5 - 11 -8.9      -2.8 251 -6.0 346 66.7 239 -8.9 311 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
North Dakota St. 2.2 40.1 27.3 17.6 8.2 3.9 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1
South Dakota St. 2.3 38.1 27.0 18.6 8.9 4.1 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1
St. Thomas 2.4 33.9 27.0 20.1 10.0 5.0 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.2
UMKC 4.7 4.8 9.2 14.5 20.4 17.7 13.6 9.9 6.5 3.4
South Dakota 5.1 3.3 7.1 12.1 18.4 18.3 15.3 12.0 8.3 5.0
North Dakota 6.0 1.2 3.1 6.7 12.4 16.0 17.4 17.0 14.9 11.3
Oral Roberts 6.2 1.2 3.0 6.1 11.1 14.7 16.6 17.1 16.4 13.9
Nebraska Omaha 6.5 0.7 1.9 4.5 9.3 13.8 16.9 18.4 18.7 15.8
Denver 7.2 0.2 0.8 2.4 5.6 9.2 13.5 17.4 22.3 28.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
North Dakota St. 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.6 5.0 8.5 12.8 16.9 18.5 16.2 11.3 5.3 1.3
South Dakota St. 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.8 5.3 9.3 13.4 17.0 18.0 15.6 10.4 5.0 1.2
St. Thomas 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.4 6.4 10.3 14.3 17.1 17.6 14.6 9.0 4.0 0.9
UMKC 8 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.7 8.5 12.3 15.0 16.0 14.8 11.4 7.3 4.3 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
South Dakota 7 - 9 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.3 6.4 10.5 13.8 16.0 15.3 13.2 9.6 5.8 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
North Dakota 6 - 10 0.2 1.1 3.6 7.2 11.6 15.4 16.3 15.5 12.3 8.4 4.8 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oral Roberts 6 - 10 0.3 1.5 4.5 8.5 12.7 15.6 16.1 14.3 11.0 7.4 4.5 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 6 - 10 0.3 1.7 5.2 9.8 14.4 17.2 16.5 13.9 9.8 5.9 3.2 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Denver 5 - 11 1.0 4.3 9.7 14.8 17.8 17.3 13.9 10.0 6.0 3.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
North Dakota St. 40.1% 27.1 10.6 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 38.1% 25.6 10.2 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
St. Thomas 33.9% 22.1 9.5 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
UMKC 4.8% 2.3 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
South Dakota 3.3% 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Dakota 1.2% 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oral Roberts 1.2% 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denver 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
North Dakota St. 29.5% 29.5% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1 9.3 12.5 5.3 1.0 0.1 70.5 0.0%
South Dakota St. 28.7% 28.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 5.5 11.4 8.3 2.7 0.3 71.3 0.0%
St. Thomas 25.7% 25.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.9 9.5 8.5 3.2 0.4 74.3 0.0%
UMKC 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.1 2.3 94.3 0.0%
South Dakota 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 1.9 95.6 0.0%
North Dakota 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 98.1 0.0%
Oral Roberts 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.6 98.1 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.2 98.6 0.0%
Denver 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
North Dakota St. 29.5% 0.0% 29.4% 3.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota St. 28.7% 0.1% 28.6% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Thomas 25.7% 0.1% 25.7% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 5.7% 1.4% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 4.4% 1.0% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 1.9% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 1.9% 1.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 1.4% 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 96.7% 1.0 3.3 96.7 0.0
2nd Round 9.6% 0.1 90.4 9.6
Sweet Sixteen 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0