Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
126 South Dakota St. 29.0%   14   17 - 11 11 - 5 18 - 11 11 - 5 +2.2      +2.3 108 -0.1 176 71.1 92 +1.7 141 +1.1 3
134 St. Thomas 26.0%   19 - 9 12 - 4 20 - 9 12 - 4 +1.5      +4.4 75 -2.9 255 68.7 162 +2.5 128 +3.1 2
139 North Dakota St. 22.2%   18 - 10 10 - 6 19 - 10 10 - 6 +1.1      +5.4 61 -4.3 296 63.7 299 +1.5 144 -0.4 4
175 Nebraska Omaha 13.7%   17 - 12 13 - 3 17 - 12 13 - 3 -0.8      +2.9 98 -3.7 284 68.2 175 +0.2 162 +5.7 1
232 South Dakota 3.9%   14 - 13 9 - 7 15 - 14 9 - 7 -3.8      +1.8 122 -5.6 331 82.6 3 -2.2 194 -1.3 5
235 UMKC 2.7%   8 - 19 4 - 12 9 - 19 4 - 12 -4.2      -4.3 290 +0.1 169 63.0 317 -7.7 293 -9.8 8
275 North Dakota 1.6%   8 - 20 5 - 11 8 - 21 5 - 11 -6.4      +0.6 156 -7.0 350 71.2 91 -7.2 281 -7.5 7
302 Denver 0.8%   8 - 20 5 - 11 8 - 21 5 - 11 -8.0      -5.2 311 -2.8 251 66.8 219 -7.8 297 -7.3 6
314 Oral Roberts 0.2%   4 - 21 3 - 13 4 - 22 3 - 13 -9.1      -2.5 239 -6.6 345 68.4 170 -11.1 330 -11.1 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
South Dakota St. 3.0 100.0
St. Thomas 2.0 100.0
North Dakota St. 4.0 100.0
Nebraska Omaha 1.0 100.0
South Dakota 5.0 100.0
UMKC 8.0 100.0
North Dakota 6.0 100.0
Denver 6.0 100.0
Oral Roberts 9.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
South Dakota St. 11 - 5 100.0
St. Thomas 12 - 4 100.0
North Dakota St. 10 - 6 100.0
Nebraska Omaha 13 - 3 100.0
South Dakota 9 - 7 100.0
UMKC 4 - 12 100.0
North Dakota 5 - 11 100.0
Denver 5 - 11 100.0
Oral Roberts 3 - 13 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Dakota St.
St. Thomas
North Dakota St.
Nebraska Omaha 100.0% 100.0
South Dakota
UMKC
North Dakota
Denver
Oral Roberts


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Dakota St. 29.0% 29.0% 0.0% 14   1.3 12.5 13.9 1.2 71.0 0.0%
St. Thomas 26.0% 26.0% 0.0% 1.3 11.8 11.8 1.1 74.0 0.0%
North Dakota St. 22.2% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0 3.3 13.4 5.3 0.1 77.8 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 0.3 4.8 7.9 0.7 86.3 0.0%
South Dakota 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.2 2.8 0.9 96.1 0.0%
UMKC 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 2.7 97.3 0.0%
North Dakota 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 1.6 98.4 0.0%
Denver 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8 99.2 0.0%
Oral Roberts 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
South Dakota St. 29.0% 0.0% 29.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Thomas 26.0% 0.0% 26.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 22.2% 0.0% 22.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 13.7% 0.0% 13.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 3.9% 0.1% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 2.7% 2.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 1.6% 1.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.8% 1.0 2.3 97.8
2nd Round 5.2% 0.1 94.8 5.2
Sweet Sixteen 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0