Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
111 South Dakota St. 35.1%   13   12 - 8 6 - 2 18 - 10 12 - 4 +3.5      +2.1 117 +1.5 132 71.0 109 +2.6 128 +3.6 3
127 North Dakota St. 23.2%   13 - 7 5 - 3 18 - 10 10 - 6 +2.0      +5.5 53 -3.6 281 64.6 281 +1.5 147 -2.1 4
133 St. Thomas 24.5%   14 - 6 7 - 1 20 - 8 13 - 3 +1.7      +4.3 68 -2.6 252 69.4 153 +3.4 119 +8.3 1
206 Nebraska Omaha 8.6%   11 - 10 7 - 1 15 - 14 11 - 5 -2.6      +0.8 160 -3.3 275 68.0 192 -1.2 187 +8.3 2
229 UMKC 4.2%   6 - 13 2 - 6 10 - 17 6 - 10 -3.8      -3.7 275 -0.1 173 63.7 302 -7.4 284 -10.5 8
259 South Dakota 2.3%   9 - 10 4 - 4 13 - 15 7 - 9 -5.7      +2.7 103 -8.4 359 80.3 6 -3.4 219 -3.1 5
280 North Dakota 1.6%   5 - 15 2 - 6 8 - 20 5 - 11 -6.7      +0.6 162 -7.4 350 71.3 100 -8.3 303 -10.2 7
322 Oral Roberts 0.4%   2 - 15 1 - 7 4 - 21 3 - 13 -9.5      -1.1 207 -8.4 358 68.9 165 -13.7 345 -15.6 9
331 Denver 0.2%   5 - 15 2 - 6 7 - 21 4 - 12 -10.8      -4.8 304 -6.0 335 66.9 223 -9.4 313 -9.6 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
South Dakota St. 1.9 44.3 31.8 16.5 7.0 0.5 0.1
North Dakota St. 3.3 7.2 15.7 26.8 44.8 5.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
St. Thomas 1.6 59.2 24.9 11.5 4.3 0.2
Nebraska Omaha 2.4 23.2 29.1 32.5 14.4 0.9 0.0
UMKC 6.0 0.0 0.3 2.9 28.1 41.1 18.9 6.8 1.8
South Dakota 5.1 0.1 0.8 2.7 11.5 60.6 17.8 5.2 1.2 0.1
North Dakota 6.7 0.0 0.1 1.0 12.6 28.8 34.9 16.8 5.9
Oral Roberts 8.1 0.0 1.7 7.9 16.2 28.5 45.6
Denver 7.6 0.0 0.2 3.6 12.0 25.4 36.9 21.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
South Dakota St. 12 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.7 7.8 18.0 28.6 28.5 13.7
North Dakota St. 10 - 6 0.0 0.2 1.8 6.8 18.4 28.4 26.8 14.5 3.1
St. Thomas 13 - 3 0.0 0.3 1.2 5.2 13.2 25.1 29.2 20.0 5.8
Nebraska Omaha 11 - 5 0.1 0.9 5.8 16.2 27.3 28.0 16.1 4.9 0.7
UMKC 6 - 10 0.4 3.2 11.3 22.7 27.5 21.7 10.4 2.5 0.4
South Dakota 7 - 9 1.7 8.0 18.6 26.3 24.1 14.5 5.3 1.5 0.1
North Dakota 5 - 11 2.0 10.1 23.7 29.2 21.0 10.3 3.2 0.6 0.0
Oral Roberts 3 - 13 8.5 21.3 29.6 22.8 12.1 4.7 0.7 0.2
Denver 4 - 12 10.5 27.8 30.9 20.0 8.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Dakota St. 44.3% 23.3 16.2 4.4 0.4
North Dakota St. 7.2% 1.9 2.9 2.0 0.4
St. Thomas 59.2% 36.7 17.5 4.6 0.4
Nebraska Omaha 23.2% 10.0 9.0 3.9 0.4
UMKC
South Dakota 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Dakota
Oral Roberts
Denver


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Dakota St. 35.1% 35.1% 0.0% 13   0.7 10.7 16.7 6.4 0.5 64.9 0.0%
North Dakota St. 23.2% 23.2% 0.0% 0.2 5.2 11.8 5.2 0.7 0.0 76.8 0.0%
St. Thomas 24.5% 24.5% 0.0% 0.1 3.3 10.5 8.8 1.8 0.0 75.5 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.3 3.0 91.4 0.0%
UMKC 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 4.0 95.8 0.0%
South Dakota 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 1.6 97.7 0.0%
North Dakota 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 1.6 98.4 0.0%
Oral Roberts 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Denver 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
South Dakota St. 35.1% 0.0% 35.1% 3.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 23.2% 0.0% 23.2% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Thomas 24.5% 0.0% 24.5% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 8.6% 0.8% 8.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 4.2% 3.5% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 2.3% 1.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 1.6% 1.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.0% 1.0 3.0 97.0
2nd Round 7.2% 0.1 92.8 7.2
Sweet Sixteen 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0