Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
85 Grand Canyon 51.3%   13   12 - 5 3 - 1 21 - 8 12 - 4 +6.7      +2.0 120 +4.7 57 76.9 22 +4.1 108 +2.1 2
140 Utah Valley 19.7%   11 - 6 5 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 4 +1.5      -1.8 225 +3.3 86 69.9 145 +3.4 114 +14.1 1
150 Seattle 13.4%   6 - 10 3 - 1 13 - 15 10 - 6 +1.0      -0.3 188 +1.3 132 66.9 227 -3.6 229 +1.0 4
172 California Baptist 8.4%   9 - 9 2 - 2 16 - 14 9 - 7 -0.5      +0.2 172 -0.7 196 64.5 287 -1.2 191 -0.5 5
201 Texas Arlington 3.2%   5 - 11 0 - 4 11 - 17 6 - 10 -1.9      +0.7 159 -2.6 255 73.5 63 -6.4 269 -17.7 9
240 Southern Utah 1.6%   6 - 9 1 - 3 11 - 16 6 - 10 -4.4      -2.9 248 -1.5 224 72.6 80 -3.8 234 -8.0 7
242 Abilene Christian 1.2%   5 - 11 0 - 4 10 - 18 5 - 11 -4.4      -6.0 327 +1.6 126 70.5 127 -4.9 247 -13.5 8
260 Tarleton St. 1.0%   5 - 12 3 - 2 9 - 19 7 - 9 -5.6      -6.2 330 +0.5 149 65.1 262 -4.2 238 +1.2 3
286 Utah Tech 0.3%   4 - 13 2 - 2 8 - 21 6 - 10 -7.1      -3.5 263 -3.6 281 69.0 170 -7.7 296 -1.2 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Grand Canyon 1.5 63.3 25.4 8.0 2.6 0.5 0.2 0.1
Utah Valley 1.9 39.9 37.5 14.6 5.5 1.9 0.5 0.2 0.0
Seattle 3.1 13.3 21.4 32.0 18.3 8.3 4.0 1.9 0.8 0.2
California Baptist 3.9 5.3 12.0 26.2 28.1 13.9 7.1 4.4 2.2 0.8
Texas Arlington 6.4 0.2 1.2 4.9 9.7 15.9 18.3 18.7 17.4 13.5
Southern Utah 6.3 0.4 1.4 5.2 10.6 16.2 16.9 17.5 17.3 14.4
Abilene Christian 6.8 0.1 0.8 3.3 7.8 14.1 16.0 16.9 18.0 23.1
Tarleton St. 5.5 0.7 3.0 8.6 16.3 24.4 19.7 14.5 9.4 3.5
Utah Tech 6.7 0.1 0.8 3.2 7.3 13.2 16.9 19.5 20.7 18.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Grand Canyon 12 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 3.6 7.7 14.8 22.3 24.7 18.6 7.0
Utah Valley 12 - 4 0.1 0.2 0.9 3.3 7.4 13.8 20.7 21.5 17.9 10.2 3.3 0.7
Seattle 10 - 6 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.6 7.6 13.6 18.3 20.2 17.2 11.1 5.1 1.6 0.3
California Baptist 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.2 7.5 13.0 19.6 20.6 17.8 10.5 5.0 1.4 0.3
Texas Arlington 6 - 10 0.1 0.6 2.4 7.7 13.7 18.8 20.8 17.4 11.0 5.1 2.1 0.4 0.1
Southern Utah 6 - 10 0.4 2.5 7.2 13.5 19.1 19.8 16.8 11.0 6.4 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
Abilene Christian 5 - 11 0.3 1.7 5.2 10.1 16.0 19.2 18.5 15.2 8.2 3.9 1.4 0.3 0.0
Tarleton St. 7 - 9 1.3 5.7 14.3 21.2 22.2 18.1 10.2 4.9 1.7 0.5 0.1
Utah Tech 6 - 10 2.7 9.4 17.4 22.3 20.2 14.9 7.6 3.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Grand Canyon 63.3% 46.1 14.9 2.1 0.3 0.0
Utah Valley 39.9% 24.5 13.2 1.9 0.3 0.0
Seattle 13.3% 6.6 5.0 1.4 0.2 0.0
California Baptist 5.3% 2.1 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
Texas Arlington 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Utah 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
Abilene Christian 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tarleton St. 0.7% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Utah Tech 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Grand Canyon 51.3% 51.3% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.1 3.0 20.9 21.1 6.0 0.3 48.7 0.0%
Utah Valley 19.7% 19.7% 0.0% 0.2 1.7 7.2 8.1 2.5 0.1 80.3 0.0%
Seattle 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 3.5 4.6 2.0 86.7 0.0%
California Baptist 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.1 1.0 3.3 3.5 0.4 91.7 0.0%
Texas Arlington 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 1.4 96.8 0.0%
Southern Utah 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.2 0.8 0.6 98.4 0.0%
Abilene Christian 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 98.8 0.0%
Tarleton St. 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 99.0 0.0%
Utah Tech 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Grand Canyon 51.3% 0.0% 51.3% 9.4% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 19.7% 0.0% 19.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 13.4% 0.8% 13.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 8.4% 0.1% 8.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 3.2% 1.0% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 1.6% 0.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 1.2% 0.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.7% 1.0 1.3 98.7
2nd Round 11.8% 0.1 88.2 11.8
Sweet Sixteen 2.5% 0.0 97.5 2.5
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0