Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
89 Grand Canyon 50.7%   13   18 - 6 9 - 2 22 - 7 13 - 3 +5.8      +0.7 159 +5.2 54 77.1 18 +5.0 96 +6.1 2
125 Utah Valley 27.4%   17 - 7 11 - 1 20 - 8 14 - 2 +2.1      -1.0 201 +3.0 89 69.3 143 +4.8 99 +12.8 1
158 California Baptist 8.8%   13 - 12 6 - 5 16 - 14 9 - 7 +0.2      +0.1 172 +0.1 174 65.9 240 -1.2 181 -1.4 3
165 Seattle 6.4%   8 - 15 5 - 6 11 - 17 8 - 8 -0.2      -1.3 212 +1.1 140 66.6 221 -4.4 239 -4.2 6
205 Texas Arlington 2.6%   10 - 14 5 - 7 12 - 16 7 - 9 -2.4      +0.8 156 -3.1 263 69.2 147 -3.6 223 -4.2 7
211 Abilene Christian 3.2%   10 - 13 5 - 6 12 - 16 7 - 9 -2.6      -5.2 310 +2.5 100 70.5 117 -2.9 214 -3.0 5
273 Tarleton St. 0.6%   8 - 16 6 - 6 9 - 19 7 - 9 -6.3      -7.7 346 +1.4 133 64.9 267 -4.1 234 -1.7 4
282 Southern Utah 0.2%   8 - 16 3 - 10 9 - 18 4 - 12 -6.7      -4.6 304 -2.0 227 70.9 107 -6.0 269 -8.9 8
290 Utah Tech 0.2%   4 - 20 2 - 9 6 - 23 4 - 12 -7.0      -2.1 230 -4.9 318 67.6 195 -10.3 325 -10.1 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Grand Canyon 1.6 37.2 62.8 0.1
Utah Valley 1.1 87.2 12.8
California Baptist 3.4 0.0 1.3 72.2 15.3 7.2 2.9 1.2
Seattle 4.5 0.1 27.4 27.9 22.7 14.2 7.3 0.4
Texas Arlington 5.3 0.0 9.7 18.3 24.0 23.6 24.0 0.3
Abilene Christian 4.8 0.1 19.3 30.2 20.5 15.4 14.1 0.5
Tarleton St. 4.9 0.0 15.6 23.8 25.5 20.9 14.2 0.0
Southern Utah 8.3 0.1 0.9 3.9 63.9 31.1
Utah Tech 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 4.4 50.8 43.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Grand Canyon 13 - 3 0.1 0.8 6.8 23.3 40.9 28.2
Utah Valley 14 - 2 0.8 7.7 25.9 40.9 24.7
California Baptist 9 - 7 1.4 9.5 27.9 36.5 21.3 3.5
Seattle 8 - 8 3.1 15.0 29.2 31.8 17.4 3.6
Texas Arlington 7 - 9 6.7 30.1 41.6 19.1 2.5
Abilene Christian 7 - 9 3.7 17.8 32.0 29.8 14.0 2.7
Tarleton St. 7 - 9 23.5 40.7 26.7 8.2 1.0
Southern Utah 4 - 12 33.0 44.8 19.6 2.6
Utah Tech 4 - 12 13.2 35.0 33.0 15.5 3.2 0.2




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Grand Canyon 37.2% 12.8 24.4 0.0
Utah Valley 87.2% 62.8 24.4 0.0
California Baptist 0.0% 0.0
Seattle
Texas Arlington
Abilene Christian
Tarleton St.
Southern Utah
Utah Tech


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Grand Canyon 50.7% 50.7% 0.0% 13   0.5 16.5 25.1 8.4 0.3 49.3 0.0%
Utah Valley 27.4% 27.4% 0.0% 0.0 2.9 12.3 10.4 1.7 0.0 72.6 0.0%
California Baptist 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.4 0.4 91.2 0.0%
Seattle 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.4 93.6 0.0%
Texas Arlington 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.5 97.4 0.0%
Abilene Christian 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.9 96.8 0.0%
Tarleton St. 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Utah Tech 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Grand Canyon 50.7% 0.0% 50.7% 6.9% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 27.4% 0.0% 27.4% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 8.8% 0.0% 8.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 6.4% 2.8% 5.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 2.6% 0.9% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 3.2% 1.1% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.9% 1.0 2.1 97.9
2nd Round 9.4% 0.1 90.6 9.4
Sweet Sixteen 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0