Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
108 Grand Canyon 31.4%   13   2 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 10 11 - 5 +4.1      +2.6 106 +1.5 128 70.9 130 -0.9 199 0.0 1
135 Seattle 18.2%   1 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 6 +1.8      +1.2 139 +0.6 150 67.0 252 -5.1 255 0.0 1
136 Utah Valley 19.4%   1 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 6 +1.7      -1.3 208 +3.0 90 69.0 186 -2.8 223 0.0 1
166 Texas Arlington 11.1%   0 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 7 -0.4      +2.6 104 -3.0 270 75.2 56 -8.8 294 0.0 1
208 Southern Utah 6.8%   2 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 14 8 - 8 -2.2      0.0 174 -2.3 247 72.6 89 +1.7 166 0.0 1
209 California Baptist 6.0%   3 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 8 -2.3      +0.3 168 -2.6 256 64.6 309 -4.5 246 0.0 1
214 Abilene Christian 6.0%   1 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 8 -2.5      -2.3 242 -0.2 174 70.5 143 -5.2 256 0.0 1
304 Utah Tech 0.8%   0 - 3 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 11 -7.9      -4.3 296 -3.6 294 74.0 70 -12.8 325 0.0 1
318 Tarleton St. 0.5%   0 - 4 0 - 0 6 - 22 4 - 12 -8.8      -5.9 335 -2.9 263 71.0 123 -6.7 281 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Grand Canyon 2.4 41.4 22.7 14.1 9.3 5.9 3.6 1.9 0.8 0.2
Seattle 3.2 23.7 20.9 17.2 13.8 9.6 7.1 4.5 2.4 0.8
Utah Valley 3.3 24.3 19.7 16.6 12.8 10.4 7.3 5.1 2.8 1.1
Texas Arlington 4.1 12.9 14.8 15.5 15.0 13.7 11.4 8.9 5.3 2.4
Southern Utah 4.9 7.4 10.1 12.1 13.9 14.5 15.0 13.3 9.0 4.7
California Baptist 4.9 6.6 9.7 12.4 14.5 15.5 15.1 13.4 8.6 4.1
Abilene Christian 5.0 6.3 9.5 11.8 13.7 14.7 15.1 13.9 9.8 5.1
Utah Tech 7.2 0.7 1.6 3.0 4.9 7.6 11.5 16.6 26.0 28.0
Tarleton St. 7.5 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.6 6.0 9.9 16.0 25.9 35.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Grand Canyon 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.8 6.3 9.4 12.4 15.0 16.0 14.3 11.2 6.0 1.9
Seattle 10 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.7 5.0 7.1 10.3 13.2 14.4 14.3 12.7 9.2 5.6 2.5 0.6
Utah Valley 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.3 5.2 7.9 10.2 12.5 13.8 13.7 12.2 9.3 5.7 2.8 0.7
Texas Arlington 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.6 6.1 8.7 11.3 13.2 13.6 13.0 10.8 8.2 5.0 2.5 0.9 0.2
Southern Utah 8 - 8 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.8 6.2 9.4 11.7 13.5 13.7 12.4 10.3 7.5 5.1 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.1
California Baptist 8 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.3 6.1 9.3 11.9 13.9 14.3 13.0 10.5 7.5 4.6 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.0
Abilene Christian 8 - 8 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.0 6.7 9.6 12.3 13.8 13.6 12.3 9.9 6.9 4.5 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1
Utah Tech 5 - 11 2.1 6.6 11.5 14.6 15.9 14.5 12.1 9.1 6.0 3.8 2.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tarleton St. 4 - 12 2.9 8.6 13.8 16.6 16.5 14.1 10.8 7.4 4.5 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Grand Canyon 41.4% 29.8 9.2 2.0 0.3 0.0
Seattle 23.7% 15.2 6.5 1.6 0.3 0.0
Utah Valley 24.3% 15.9 6.5 1.6 0.3 0.0
Texas Arlington 12.9% 7.7 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
Southern Utah 7.4% 4.1 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
California Baptist 6.6% 3.5 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
Abilene Christian 6.3% 3.4 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
Utah Tech 0.7% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tarleton St. 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Grand Canyon 31.4% 31.4% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.7 8.8 10.7 6.8 2.5 0.4 68.6 0.1%
Seattle 18.2% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.7 4.8 3.1 1.1 81.8 0.0%
Utah Valley 19.4% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 4.0 6.4 5.0 2.5 0.8 80.6 0.0%
Texas Arlington 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 3.2 2.8 1.6 88.9 0.0%
Southern Utah 6.8% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.2 1.7 0.5 93.3 0.0%
California Baptist 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.8 1.9 0.9 94.1 0.0%
Abilene Christian 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.8 1.7 1.0 94.0 0.0%
Utah Tech 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 99.2 0.0%
Tarleton St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Grand Canyon 31.4% 0.2% 31.4% 5.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 18.2% 0.6% 18.0% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 19.4% 0.4% 19.2% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 11.1% 0.8% 10.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 6.8% 0.2% 6.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 6.0% 0.4% 5.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 6.0% 0.5% 5.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 98.5% 1.0 1.5 98.4 0.1
2nd Round 12.1% 0.1 87.9 12.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.8% 0.0 97.2 2.8
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0