Preseason Rankings
Washington
Big Ten
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.7#62
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.1#29
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#52
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#77
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 2.3% 2.5% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 7.2% 7.9% 1.9%
Top 6 Seed 14.6% 15.9% 4.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.1% 38.5% 16.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 34.5% 36.9% 16.2%
Average Seed 7.1 7.1 8.0
.500 or above 59.2% 62.6% 32.4%
.500 or above in Conference 38.8% 40.9% 21.9%
Conference Champion 3.0% 3.2% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 13.1% 11.9% 22.9%
First Four3.9% 4.0% 2.9%
First Round33.9% 36.3% 15.4%
Second Round20.1% 21.6% 7.7%
Sweet Sixteen8.1% 8.8% 2.6%
Elite Eight3.4% 3.7% 0.9%
Final Four1.3% 1.4% 0.3%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Home) - 88.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 9
Quad 24 - 48 - 13
Quad 34 - 112 - 14
Quad 44 - 016 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 191   UC Davis W 80-67 89%    
  Nov 09, 2024 75   @ Nevada L 73-75 43%    
  Nov 17, 2024 143   Umass Lowell W 84-73 83%    
  Nov 22, 2024 324   Alcorn St. W 86-65 97%    
  Nov 28, 2024 84   Colorado St. W 74-72 56%    
  Dec 03, 2024 23   @ UCLA L 67-74 28%    
  Dec 07, 2024 46   USC W 78-76 56%    
  Dec 10, 2024 262   Eastern Washington W 89-72 92%    
  Dec 18, 2024 91   Washington St. W 74-69 68%    
  Dec 23, 2024 127   Seattle W 77-68 79%    
  Dec 29, 2024 343   NJIT W 85-62 98%    
  Jan 02, 2025 38   Maryland W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 05, 2025 22   Illinois L 80-81 47%    
  Jan 09, 2025 24   @ Michigan St. L 68-75 29%    
  Jan 12, 2025 30   @ Michigan L 74-80 30%    
  Jan 15, 2025 12   Purdue L 74-78 38%    
  Jan 21, 2025 34   @ Oregon L 73-78 32%    
  Jan 24, 2025 23   UCLA L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 01, 2025 76   @ Minnesota L 74-76 44%    
  Feb 05, 2025 51   Nebraska W 79-77 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 60   Northwestern W 73-70 59%    
  Feb 12, 2025 31   @ Ohio St. L 72-78 31%    
  Feb 15, 2025 67   @ Penn St. L 77-80 42%    
  Feb 19, 2025 29   Rutgers L 72-73 50%    
  Feb 22, 2025 45   @ Iowa L 82-87 36%    
  Feb 25, 2025 44   @ Wisconsin L 71-76 36%    
  Mar 01, 2025 20   Indiana L 77-78 47%    
  Mar 05, 2025 46   @ USC L 75-79 36%    
  Mar 09, 2025 34   Oregon W 76-75 52%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 3.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.4 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 2.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 5.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.5 1.9 0.2 5.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 2.9 0.6 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.2 1.8 0.1 0.0 5.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 2.1 2.9 0.4 0.0 5.7 11th
12th 0.1 1.2 3.5 1.4 0.1 6.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 2.8 2.8 0.3 6.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.5 0.9 0.0 6.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.2 1.9 0.2 7.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 7.6 16th
17th 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.9 2.3 0.6 0.0 8.0 17th
18th 0.3 1.0 2.1 2.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 8.3 18th
Total 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.4 6.2 7.7 8.9 10.1 10.1 9.9 9.1 8.1 6.8 5.3 4.0 2.6 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 96.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
17-3 81.6% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 52.4% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 25.1% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 1.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 39.2% 60.8% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.4% 100.0% 30.2% 69.8% 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.8% 100.0% 28.3% 71.7% 2.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.6% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 2.9 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.6% 99.9% 14.2% 85.7% 3.9 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 4.0% 99.4% 9.6% 89.8% 5.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
13-7 5.3% 98.0% 6.5% 91.6% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.9%
12-8 6.8% 92.0% 3.1% 88.9% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.5 91.7%
11-9 8.1% 78.5% 2.4% 76.2% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.1 1.7 78.0%
10-10 9.1% 58.2% 1.2% 57.1% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.8 57.7%
9-11 9.9% 26.8% 0.5% 26.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 7.2 26.4%
8-12 10.1% 7.6% 0.3% 7.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.3 7.3%
7-13 10.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.0 0.8%
6-14 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 8.9 0.0%
5-15 7.7% 7.7
4-16 6.2% 6.2
3-17 4.4% 4.4
2-18 2.5% 2.5
1-19 1.1% 1.1
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 36.1% 2.4% 33.6% 7.1 0.8 1.5 2.3 2.7 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.5 4.3 3.8 3.8 0.8 0.0 63.9 34.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0