Denver
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.6 #280
Expected Predictive Rating -4.9 #235
Pace 69.6 #165
Improvement +0.4 #167

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #102 C+ C+ B+ C+ D-
Defense #363 F F F C+ F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #317 1.11 #237 -4.0 #312
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #59 0.81 #99 +3.2 #44
Three Pointers 40% #204 1.14 #30 +1.9 #115
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #140 +1.2 #138
Freethrows 17.6 #189 77% #44 13.5 #135
Second Chance 29.4% #224 1.18 #40 0.35 #113
Turnovers 14.4% #60
Total Offense +2.9 #102

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #43 1.25 #294 -5.3 #341
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #317 0.78 #209 +1.6 #68
Three Pointers 40% #213 1.14 #327 -1.9 #271
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #335 -5.6 #333
Freethrows 17.3 #166 68% #37 11.8 #118
Second Chance 36.5% #348 1.18 #326 0.43 #356
Turnovers 12.8% #350
Total Defense -9.5 #363

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.4% #322 2.0% #342
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.9% #100 8.8% #328
Possession Length 17.4 #182 16.8 #87
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #329 0.20 #267
Improvement -0.2 #190 +0.6 #143

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 3.4% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 16.0
.500 or above 3.7% 5.4% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 30.8% 39.8% 14.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 2.3% 9.8%
First Four2.0% 1.9% 2.1%
First Round2.1% 2.6% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Home) - 65.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 32 - 54 - 11
Quad 48 - 711 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 121 @Seattle L 73 - 84 13% -6  0 - 1 -5 +2 C B- F -6 B- D D+
 Thu, Nov 6 47 @Washington L 70 - 84 4% -8  0 - 2 -0 +3 A D- D- -3 C- D+ D+
 Sun, Nov 9 152 @Montana St. W 75 - 73 17% -2  1 - 2 +6 +11 A+ A+ F -6 C+ F F
 Sat, Nov 15 345 Texas San Antonio L 79 - 84 78% -4  1 - 3 -20 +6 B- F A+ -26 F F D
 Fri, Nov 21 96 @Colorado St. W 83 - 81 9% +2  2 - 3 +10 +24 A+ C A+ -13 C F C
 Mon, Nov 24 2 @Arizona L 73 - 103 1% -23  2 - 4 -4 +8 B- A+ D -10 F D A+
 Wed, Nov 26 108 @Wyoming L 59 - 101 10% -16  2 - 5 -35 -12 F B C -23 D- F F
 Wed, Dec 3 243 Eastern Washington W 93 - 89 53% +0  3 - 5 -4 +16 A+ F A+ -19 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 6 219 @Idaho St. L 79 - 93 28% -6  3 - 6 -14 +7 C A+ C -22 F F F
 Sat, Dec 13 229 Cal St. Fullerton L 86 - 105 51% -19  3 - 7 -26 +3 F A+ A -28 F F C-
 Sat, Dec 20 185 @Northern Colorado W 86 - 79 23% -2  4 - 7 +8 +11 A+ F C -2 B- D+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 70 @Tulsa L 85 - 90 6% -4  4 - 8 +6 +6 D+ A+ F +0 A+ D- D-
 Wed, Dec 31 353 UMKC W 87 - 74 81% +12  5 - 8 1 - 0 -3 +7 C- D+ A+ -10 C+ F F
 Sun, Jan 4 131 @St. Thomas L 88 - 92 14% -3  5 - 9 1 - 1 +1 +15 C+ A+ A+ -14 C F F
 Thu, Jan 8 170 @South Dakota St. L 79 - 87 21% -1  5 - 10 1 - 2 -6 +7 D+ C+ A+ -13 C F F
 Sat, Jan 10 283 @South Dakota L 72 - 82 39% -2  5 - 11 1 - 3 -14 -5 F D C -9 F A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 321 Oral Roberts W 98 - 87 73% +6  6 - 11 2 - 3 -2 +19 A+ B- A- -21 F D- F
 Thu, Jan 22 147 North Dakota St. L 77 - 82 33% -5  6 - 12 2 - 4 -7 +9 C+ B- A+ -16 F D+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 297 North Dakota W 85 - 81 65%
 Wed, Jan 28 353 @UMKC W 82 - 79 63%
 Sat, Jan 31 261 Nebraska Omaha W 82 - 80 57%
 Thu, Feb 5 147 @North Dakota St. L 74 - 84 16%
 Sat, Feb 7 297 @North Dakota L 82 - 84 43%
 Thu, Feb 12 170 South Dakota St. L 80 - 83 41%
 Sat, Feb 14 261 @Nebraska Omaha L 79 - 83 35%
 Thu, Feb 19 283 South Dakota W 89 - 86 62%
 Sat, Feb 21 131 St. Thomas L 80 - 85 31%
 Thu, Feb 26 321 @Oral Roberts W 80 - 79 51%
Totals 11 - 17 7 - 9 -7 +3 C+ C+ B+ -10 F F F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 3.3 2.5 0.6 0.0 7.6 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 8.0 5.2 0.9 0.0 16.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.3 10.3 6.3 0.8 0.0 19.9 5th
6th 0.1 2.9 11.2 8.5 1.0 0.0 23.6 6th
7th 0.3 3.8 10.4 7.4 1.1 0.0 23.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 3.4 1.9 0.2 7.1 8th
9th 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 1.7 9th
Total 0.5 2.6 7.7 15.3 21.1 22.1 16.5 9.5 3.8 0.9 0.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 33.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 0.5% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.1% 28.6% 28.6% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-5 0.9% 9.9% 9.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.8
10-6 3.8% 8.9% 8.9% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.4
9-7 9.5% 5.1% 5.1% 15.7 0.1 0.3 9.0
8-8 16.5% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8 15.7
7-9 22.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.6 21.5
6-10 21.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.4 20.7
5-11 15.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 15.1
4-12 7.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 7.6
3-13 2.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 2.6
2-14 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 15.8 97.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%