Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -0.4 163
Results Rating -0.5 165
Consistency 0.16 217
Pace 65.2 266
Improvement -2.6 278

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 159 C+ C- C+ D- D+
Defense C 193 C B- D+ D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 318 B- 61% 92 -1.9 251
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 199 B- 41% 86 +1.8 86
Three Pointers 43% 134 C+ 35% 152 +1.6 129
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 284 B- +2.1 101
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 130
Second Chance C 30.4% 181 D+ 0.95 297 C- 0.29 227
Opponents' Steals B- 8.7% 104
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 207
Turnovers C+ 16.1% 138
Freethrows D 0.26 321 D- 67% 333 D- 0.17 340
Total Offense C +0.1 159

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 46% 226 A- 7.1% 20
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 287 C+ 4.7% 167
Three Pointers C+ 85% 169 C+ 0.7% 128
Total C- 53% 233 B+ 3.8% 20


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 93 C 58% 167 +1.8 240
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 173 C+ 37% 116 -0.3 162
Three Pointers 37% 282 C 34% 168 -1.9 98
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 216 C+ -0.7 151
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 162
Second Chance B+ 25.8% 35 C- 1.07 255 B- 0.28 83
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.8% 229
Other Turnovers D+ 6.5% 283
Turnovers D+ 15.3% 266
Freethrows C- 0.32 228 F+ 76% 347 D+ 0.24 271
Total Defense C -0.5 193

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 41% 42 C+ 12.5% 108
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 72 C+ 6.1% 96
Three Pointers C- 85% 203 B+ 1.9% 41
Total B 50% 63 B 7.2% 61

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.0 249 17.8 263
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 211 0.13 47
Consistency 0.14 287 0.12 181
Improvement -0.5 214 -2.1 287

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 186 165 141
Results Rating Rank 211 167 136
Conference Record 9 - 11 10 - 10 11 - 9
Conference Finish 7 5 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 8% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.2 15.1
.500 or above 20% 36% 7%
.500 or above in Conference 70% 100% 46%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 1%
First Round6% 8% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Florida International (Away) - 44.9% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 36 - 57 - 12
Quad 47 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 12 295 @Evansville W 77 - 72 67% +8  90% 1 - 0 C +0 C- -2 C+ F C+ C+ +2 C- B D+
 Wed, Nov 19 2 @Michigan L 61 - 86 1% -13  7% 1 - 1 B- +5 D -6 C- C C- A+ +13 A+ A- B-
 Sun, Nov 23 124 Murray St. W 90 - 87 38% +3  76% 2 - 1 B- +6 B +6 C A B+ C -0 C B+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 78 George Washington L 79 - 92 22% -10  2% 2 - 2 D+ -5 C+ +3 B- A- D+ D- -8 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 82 McNeese St. L 62 - 72 24% +3  72% 2 - 3 C- -3 B- +5 B+ F A F -11 A+ F D
 Mon, Dec 1 116 UAB W 76 - 61 48% +4  47% 3 - 3 A- +15 B +6 C A B- A +10 A+ F A
 Sun, Dec 7 68 Belmont L 62 - 83 28% -8  13% 3 - 4 F+ -15 F -14 F C- A+ C -1 B- B F
 Wed, Dec 17 159 Kennesaw St. W 68 - 67 60% +7  95% 4 - 4 1 - 0 C- -2 F+ -9 F+ F F+ A- +7 A+ C+ B-
 Mon, Dec 29 6 @Houston L 60 - 69 2% -5  17% 4 - 5 A- +16 B+ +8 A+ C- F B+ +7 A- A D+
 Fri, Jan 2 221 Louisiana Tech W 88 - 51 73% +19  97% 5 - 5 2 - 0 A+ +30 A+ +31 A+ F A+ A- +7 B- B+ B+
 Sun, Jan 4 107 Sam Houston St. W 68 - 67 45% +5  72% 6 - 5 3 - 0 C+ +2 D- -7 B- F B- A +9 C+ B A+
 Thu, Jan 8 260 @UTEP L 80 - 83 OT 59% +5  79% 6 - 6 3 - 1 D+ -6 C+ +3 C+ F+ B- F+ -9 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 177 @New Mexico St. W 59 - 55 41% +0  51% 7 - 6 4 - 1 B- +6 F -12 D- F C+ A+ +18 A- A+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 221 @Louisiana Tech L 58 - 59 51% +10  91% 7 - 7 4 - 2 C -2 F+ -9 D- B- D A- +7 A A F
 Sat, Jan 17 205 Missouri St. W 90 - 87 2OT 69% +0  41% 8 - 7 5 - 2 C- -2 B- +4 A+ A+ F D- -7 D+ C D-
 Fri, Jan 23 192 @Jacksonville St. L 58 - 75 45% -9  2% 8 - 8 5 - 3 F+ -16 D- -8 D- D+ B+ F -11 F A+ D
 Thu, Jan 29 115 Liberty L 65 - 81 47% -12  4% 8 - 9 5 - 4 F+ -16 D -4 F+ A C F -14 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 131 Western Kentucky L 60 - 65 53% -1  41% 8 - 10 5 - 5 D+ -6 F -11 C F C B +5 D+ A+ D
 Wed, Feb 4 200 Florida International L 84 - 88 OT 68% -1  16% 8 - 11 5 - 6 D -9 D -6 C F A+ C- -3 B- A F+
 Sat, Feb 7 275 @Delaware L 88 - 89 OT 61% -0  46% 8 - 12 5 - 7 C- -4 A +12 B- A+ C- F -16 F F+ C
 Thu, Feb 12 159 @Kennesaw St. W 90 - 87 37% -3  15% 9 - 12 6 - 7 B- +6 A+ +15 A+ D C- F+ -9 D F F
 Sat, Feb 14 131 @Western Kentucky L 80 - 82 30% -3  25% 9 - 13 6 - 8 C+ +3 B+ +8 C A+ C+ D+ -5 F C- A
 Wed, Feb 18 107 @Sam Houston St. L 70 - 78 24% -7  0% 9 - 14 6 - 9 C -1 D+ -3 D+ F A+ B- +2 B+ D+ F+
 Sat, Feb 21 275 Delaware W 78 - 66 80% +9  82% 10 - 14 7 - 9 C+ +3 B +7 F+ A+ A+ C- -3 C+ C+ C
 Thu, Feb 26 260 UTEP W 77 - 67 78% +11  96% 11 - 14 8 - 9 C +1 C +1 C+ C+ D C+ +1 F A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 28 177 New Mexico St. W 86 - 85 OT 64% -3  26% 12 - 14 9 - 9 C- -3 C +1 B A F D+ -4 C C- F+
 Thu, Mar 5 200 @Florida International L 76 - 77 45%
 Sat, Mar 7 205 @Missouri St. L 70 - 71 47%
Totals 13 - 15 10 - 10 +0 C +0 F B- D+ C +0 C+ D- D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B- B- C+ B- 33% 36% 43% D+ C+ C D+ C- C+ D D- D- C C C+ C C+ 42% 21% 37% C- C B+ C- B- D+ C- F+ D+
1.09 61% 41% 35% +2 -1 1.05 30% 1.0 .29 16% .26 67% .17 1.09 58% 37% 34% -1 0 1.01 26% 1.1 .28 15% .32 76% .20
Nov
12		 Evansville C- A+ A+ F B 27% 31% 42% F+ C+ D F F C+ C+ F D C+ C- F+ A+ C- 44% 31% 25% C- C- B- B B D+ F B- F
1.08 73% 65% 26% +7 -2 1.13 26% 0.6 .15 15% .28 59% .17 1.01 62% 47% 25% +1 -1 1.02 19% 1.0 .19 17% .41 71% .29
Nov
19		 Michigan D F+ F D C- 17% 31% 53% D+ C- C+ D+ C C- D+ B- C- A+ D- A+ A+ A+ 49% 13% 38% C+ A+ A+ D A- B- D+ C+ D+
0.78 40% 22% 29% -12 -3 0.73 27% 0.9 .24 19% .19 75% .14 1.10 70% 29% 14% -6 +2 0.93 31% 1.5 .46 17% .40 73% .29
Nov
23		 Murray St. B D+ B B- C 54% 27% 19% C+ C B+ B+ A B+ D+ F F C F B- C+ C- 36% 25% 38% A- C A+ F B+ F F A- D-
1.19 53% 44% 36% -1 0 1.02 40% 1.2 .47 13% .27 56% .15 1.15 70% 36% 33% +3 -1 1.07 22% 1.4 .30 11% .43 69% .30
Nov
24		 George Washington C+ A C- C- B 40% 24% 36% C- B- F A+ A- D+ A+ A A+ D- D A+ F F 51% 8% 42% D+ F A+ F+ A+ F F+ F+ F
1.10 70% 33% 33% +3 0 1.08 19% 2.2 .41 20% .40 78% .31 1.28 67% 25% 50% +13 +3 1.34 15% 1.3 .19 13% .38 79% .30
Nov
25		 McNeese St. B- F A+ A+ A+ 19% 33% 49% F B+ B+ F F A F F F F A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 25% 33% B A+ F F F D F F F
1.09 25% 50% 48% +8 -3 1.12 41% 0.5 .21 19% .31 57% .17 1.27 41% 20% 23% -17 0 0.68 51% 1.4 .71 11% .49 92% .45
Dec
1		 UAB B C F B C 42% 23% 36% C C B- A+ A B- D+ A+ C A A+ B- A+ A+ 36% 18% 46% C- A+ D- F F A B+ F B-
1.15 59% 25% 37% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.3 .38 15% .21 83% .18 0.92 33% 33% 22% -18 0 0.66 37% 1.3 .46 17% .25 79% .20
Dec
7		 Belmont F F B F F 14% 27% 59% F F D B+ C- A+ C- C C- C D- D- C+ C+ 46% 19% 35% B B- B C B F A A+ A+
0.88 38% 40% 18% -16 -3 0.64 26% 1.2 .30 11% .26 75% .19 1.18 69% 45% 35% +7 +1 1.18 24% 1.2 .30 11% .21 38% .08
Dec
17		 Kennesaw St. F+ C- F D+ D 29% 31% 40% F F+ B+ F F F+ A+ C- A+ A- B A A+ A+ 56% 8% 35% F A+ F A+ C+ B- D F F
0.98 54% 29% 33% -5 -2 0.89 37% 0.4 .15 20% .58 75% .43 0.97 52% 25% 18% -13 +3 0.81 43% 0.7 .31 19% .39 82% .32
Dec
29		 Houston B+ A+ A A+ A+ 29% 17% 54% B- A+ A+ F C- F F F F B+ F A+ A+ A 35% 33% 33% C A- C- A+ A D+ D F F
1.01 75% 43% 41% +11 0 1.24 39% 0.5 .21 32% .15 50% .07 1.16 88% 13% 27% -1 -2 0.96 39% 0.8 .31 10% .32 88% .28
Jan
2		 Louisiana Tech A+ A+ F A+ A+ 13% 8% 79% D+ A+ C F F A+ F F F A- C- D- A+ B- 37% 24% 39% C+ B- A B- B+ B+ F D- F
1.51 100% 25% 58% +33 0 1.67 32% 0.6 .19 12% .16 25% .04 0.87 57% 44% 20% -7 -1 0.87 26% 0.8 .19 22% .42 68% .29
Jan
4		 Sam Houston St. D- F C A+ B+ 26% 30% 44% F+ B- D- F F B- F A+ F A A F F C+ 51% 27% 22% C C+ B+ C B A+ B B+ B+
1.00 43% 38% 46% +4 -2 1.06 23% 0.2 .05 15% .17 90% .15 0.98 48% 46% 45% +1 0 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 25% .23 67% .16
Jan
8		 UTEP C+ A+ F B B- 26% 30% 44% F+ C+ F B F+ B- F A+ C- F+ D A D- C 28% 40% 32% A C+ F F F F F C- F
1.12 79% 25% 38% +4 -2 1.06 22% 1.1 .25 17% .29 88% .25 1.16 64% 25% 38% -2 -3 0.92 34% 1.3 .45 13% .58 69% .40
Jan
10		 New Mexico St. F B+ F F F+ 38% 23% 38% C D- F F+ F C+ B+ F C- A+ B- C+ A+ A 27% 23% 50% C- A- A+ A A+ B F A+ D-
0.91 67% 18% 22% -8 0 0.85 17% 1.0 .17 14% .43 63% .27 0.85 54% 36% 25% -8 -1 0.83 20% 0.8 .15 17% .41 59% .24
Jan
14		 Louisiana Tech F+ F F C+ F+ 47% 16% 38% B D- C+ B+ B- D B- F F+ A- A C A+ A+ 65% 15% 19% F A A+ B+ A F F F F
0.90 43% 14% 35% -10 +1 0.84 34% 1.2 .40 20% .35 50% .17 0.91 44% 38% 10% -16 +3 0.75 23% 0.7 .15 11% .36 76% .28
Jan
17		 Missouri St. B- D- B A+ A 36% 14% 50% A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F B- B+ B+ D- B+ A+ F C 49% 18% 33% F D+ D B C D- D- B+ C-
1.18 56% 43% 52% +13 +1 1.30 33% 1.6 .52 24% .40 78% .31 1.14 54% 10% 47% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.0 .36 14% .40 62% .25
Jan
23		 Jacksonville St. D- F A+ D- F+ 40% 17% 43% C D- C D- D+ B+ F+ F F F B A F F 60% 9% 32% F F B- A+ A+ D D+ F F
0.95 42% 50% 30% -7 +1 0.89 28% 0.9 .25 13% .26 57% .15 1.23 50% 25% 60% +7 +3 1.21 26% 0.6 .15 15% .37 84% .31
Jan
29		 Liberty D F+ F D+ F+ 26% 24% 50% D- F+ B- A+ A C A F B- F F+ F F F 52% 8% 40% C F A+ A+ A+ F A C- A-
1.06 45% 30% 33% -6 -1 0.88 34% 1.5 .51 18% .32 63% .20 1.32 70% 75% 48% +17 +3 1.42 0% 0.0 .00 8% .18 70% .12
Jan
31		 Western Kentucky F B A F C- 40% 20% 40% B- C C- F F C A+ F C+ B B D+ D+ D+ 35% 19% 46% C+ D+ A A+ A+ D A+ D- A+
0.91 63% 50% 25% -1 0 1.00 27% 0.5 .14 18% .53 55% .29 0.98 47% 40% 36% -2 0 0.98 24% 0.4 .10 12% .17 80% .14
Feb
4		 Florida International D A- A D+ C 21% 7% 71% C C F F F A+ A+ D+ A+ C- B C F+ C+ 48% 34% 18% A- B- A A- A F+ F C- F
1.02 67% 50% 33% +1 +1 1.05 22% 0.3 .07 15% .47 70% .33 1.07 52% 37% 40% -2 -1 0.96 25% 0.9 .23 13% .52 70% .37
Feb
7		 Delaware A A+ A+ D B+ 11% 30% 59% F B- A A A+ C- B F C F D+ B+ F F 35% 7% 59% F F D+ F F+ C F F F
1.28 83% 63% 31% +8 -3 1.11 42% 1.3 .53 15% .32 68% .22 1.30 63% 33% 52% +17 +2 1.39 22% 1.2 .26 18% .37 90% .34
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
12		 Kennesaw St. A+ A A+ A+ A+ 44% 15% 42% B- A+ C+ F D C- A A- A+ F+ C F D D 43% 7% 50% D D B+ F F F C+ A- B
1.28 67% 57% 45% +13 +1 1.31 31% 0.8 .23 17% .48 82% .40 1.24 57% 50% 37% +2 +2 1.11 29% 1.7 .50 11% .34 62% .21
Feb
14		 Western Kentucky B+ A+ B- F C+ 34% 25% 41% C- C A- A+ A+ C+ F C F D+ F D+ C- F 40% 12% 48% D F A+ F C- A F F F
1.13 79% 43% 22% +1 -1 1.02 36% 1.2 .44 17% .22 69% .15 1.16 65% 40% 35% +4 +1 1.12 21% 1.5 .32 20% .56 88% .49
Feb
18		 Sam Houston St. D+ C+ B+ F C- 31% 28% 41% D- D+ F+ F F A+ F F F B- C+ A+ B- A 56% 17% 28% F B+ D C D+ F+ B- F D
1.01 61% 44% 25% -3 -1 0.93 21% 0.8 .16 9% .24 53% .13 1.12 57% 11% 33% -6 +2 0.94 39% 1.0 .39 13% .25 93% .23
Feb
21		 Delaware B A+ C- F F+ 31% 29% 41% D+ F+ A A+ A+ A+ B+ A A C- F F A- C- 24% 29% 48% A+ C+ A+ F C+ C F F F
1.26 73% 36% 20% -5 -2 0.90 41% 1.3 .54 8% .33 89% .30 1.06 70% 50% 30% +3 -2 1.05 8% 2.0 .16 18% .41 86% .35
Feb
26		 UTEP C C A+ C- B 24% 35% 41% F C+ B- C- C+ D B B B+ C+ B- F F F 39% 20% 41% F F A+ A+ A+ B+ D D+ D
1.13 58% 56% 33% +6 -3 1.08 36% 1.0 .36 21% .41 77% .31 0.98 56% 44% 47% +9 0 1.20 12% 0.7 .08 21% .31 71% .22
Feb
28		 New Mexico St. C B- A+ C A- 25% 33% 41% F B B- A+ A F A C+ A D+ C- F+ B D+ 27% 35% 37% A- C C C- C- F+ B D+ B-
1.14 62% 53% 33% +5 -3 1.08 33% 1.5 .50 20% .45 78% .35 1.13 59% 45% 30% +1 -3 0.98 33% 1.0 .33 11% .24 75% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3.1 3.1 3rd
4th 8.3 14.3 22.6 4th
5th 4.1 30.0 4.4 38.4 5th
6th 14.3 9.6 23.8 6th
7th 11.5 0.6 12.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 29.9 48.5 21.7 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 21.7% 10.6% 10.6% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.4 19.4
10-10 48.5% 5.3% 5.3% 14.6 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.1 45.9
9-11 29.9% 3.3% 3.3% 15.7 0.3 0.7 28.9
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 14.5 94.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3% 100.0% 13.9 0.9 22.6 57.4 19.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.0%
Lose Out 13.2%