Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -5.7 261
Results Rating -5.9 254
Consistency 0.17 284
Pace 74.2 42
Improvement +8.4 4

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 245 C- C- D- D C
Defense D+ 261 D C+ D- B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 121 C 58% 180 +1.1 134
2 Pt. Jumpers 45% 97 D 33% 324 -0.6 212
Three Pointers 37% 253 C 34% 167 -1.7 240
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 195 C- -1.1 217
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 210
Second Chance C 29.8% 193 D+ 0.98 268 C- 0.29 223
Opponents' Steals F+ 11.8% 348
Other Turnovers C- 7.8% 251
Turnovers D- 19.5% 332
Freethrows D- 0.25 332 C- 72% 221 D 0.18 324
Total Offense C- -2.7 245

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D+ 43% 268 C- 11.5% 218
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 212 D 7.6% 322
Three Pointers C 83% 206 D 1.4% 306
Total D+ 51% 269 D 6.9% 314


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 68 C 58% 172 +2.5 266
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 109 D 42% 304 +1.5 305
Three Pointers 35% 343 F+ 39% 357 -0.5 158
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 180 D +3.2 306
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 288
Second Chance C- 30.9% 215 B- 0.97 92 C+ 0.30 155
Turnovers from Steals D- 6.7% 344
Other Turnovers C- 6.8% 248
Turnovers D- 13.5% 342
Freethrows B 0.26 62 B- 71% 97 B 0.19 55
Total Defense D+ -3.0 261

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 125 C 11.3% 158
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 143 C 4.6% 192
Three Pointers B+ 77% 30 B- 1.3% 81
Total B- 50% 71 C+ 6.3% 120

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 194 15.9 7
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 208 0.21 309
Consistency 0.13 234 0.15 333
Improvement +6.0 4 +2.4 69

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 286 265 238
Results Rating Rank 289 253 235
Conference Record 6 - 12 6 - 12 8 - 10
Conference Finish 6 5 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 17% 0% 21%
First Four1% 2% 1%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 22.0% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 33 - 114 - 18
Quad 44 - 48 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 57 @Arizona St. L 64 - 81 5% -11  0% 0 - 1 C- -4 D- -8 F B D+ B +4 F+ A+ A-
 Sat, Nov 8 143 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72 - 95 36% -11  4% 0 - 2 F -25 D- -7 D D+ B- F -17 F C C-
 Sat, Nov 15 251 @Nebraska Omaha L 85 - 90 37% -3  11% 0 - 3 D+ -7 C+ +2 B D- C+ F+ -9 F A+ D-
 Mon, Nov 17 11 @Gonzaga L 50 - 122 1% -34  0% 0 - 4 F -50 F -21 F D- F F -18 F F D-
 Wed, Nov 19 128 @Washington St. L 74 - 98 16% -12  14% 0 - 5 F -19 D+ -3 B+ F F F -15 D+ F F
 Fri, Nov 28 155 @Robert Morris L 54 - 61 20% -11  0% 0 - 6 C- -4 F -16 F C F A+ +11 A+ B- D
 Sat, Nov 29 309 Stetson W 70 - 68 63% -3  30% 1 - 6 D+ -7 F -11 D F+ F B +4 C- D+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 160 @Oregon St. L 70 - 81 21% -11  0% 1 - 7 D+ -8 D -4 D+ A- F+ D+ -4 F B C+
 Sat, Dec 13 49 @Washington L 69 - 105 4% -18  0% 1 - 8 F -22 C- -1 A- F C F -20 F C F
 Thu, Dec 18 317 @Northern Arizona L 57 - 65 53% -0  47% 1 - 9 D- -15 F -20 F F F B +5 B C- F
 Mon, Dec 29 195 @Utah Tech L 66 - 80 26% -2  42% 1 - 10 0 - 1 D- -13 F -12 D- D F C -1 D+ C- C
 Sat, Jan 3 179 Texas Arlington L 77 - 86 44% -1  46% 1 - 11 0 - 2 D- -13 C +0 B- D+ D F -13 F A- D
 Thu, Jan 8 97 @Utah Valley L 72 - 89 10% -10  0% 1 - 12 0 - 3 D -8 C- -0 C C B- D- -7 F+ D C+
 Sat, Jan 10 134 @California Baptist L 55 - 58 16% -6  0% 1 - 13 0 - 4 C+ +2 D- -7 F A+ F A- +8 A+ F+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 220 Tarleton St. W 106 - 105 OT 53% +5  93% 2 - 13 1 - 4 D+ -6 B +6 B- B+ B F -11 F+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 17 236 Abilene Christian W 74 - 52 56% +11  96% 3 - 13 2 - 4 A- +15 D+ -3 D+ C+ D+ A+ +18 A+ A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 21 97 Utah Valley W 84 - 70 22% +4  81% 4 - 13 3 - 4 A- +17 A- +10 A+ A F+ B+ +6 A+ B- F
 Sat, Jan 24 195 @Utah Tech L 91 - 102 26% -8  8% 4 - 14 3 - 5 D -10 A +12 B B- B+ F -22 F+ F F
 Thu, Jan 29 179 @Texas Arlington L 61 - 80 24% -14  0% 4 - 15 3 - 6 F+ -17 F+ -10 F F C D- -7 D- D+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 236 @Abilene Christian W 79 - 76 33% -4  7% 5 - 15 4 - 6 C+ +2 B+ +8 A+ B+ F D -6 F B- F
 Sat, Feb 7 220 Tarleton St. L 59 - 62 53% -1  30% 5 - 16 4 - 7 D -10 F -16 F D F B+ +7 C+ B+ A-
 Thu, Feb 12 134 California Baptist L 66 - 83 33% -8  4% 5 - 17 4 - 8 F -18 D -5 B- F+ B+ F -14 D- F F
 Sat, Feb 14 179 @Texas Arlington W 78 - 73 24% +3  87% 6 - 17 5 - 8 B- +7 B+ +8 A+ C F C -1 C- A- F
 Thu, Feb 19 220 @Tarleton St. L 74 - 78 31% -1  34% 6 - 18 5 - 9 C- -5 B- +4 D C- C- F+ -9 F B- F
 Sat, Feb 21 236 @Abilene Christian L 83 - 87 33% +4  73% 6 - 19 5 - 10 D+ -5 B- +4 A+ C F F+ -9 F A+ F
 Sat, Feb 28 195 Utah Tech W 81 - 67 48% +4  61% 7 - 19 6 - 10 B +9 B +6 C A B- B- +3 C- A+ C
 Thu, Mar 5 97 Utah Valley L 73 - 81 22%
 Sat, Mar 7 134 California Baptist L 70 - 74 34%
Totals 8 - 20 7 - 11 -6 C- -3 F+ C- C D+ -3 C C- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C D C C- 41% 45% 37% C C- C D+ C- D- D- C- D D+ C D F+ D 43% 22% 35% C D C- B- C+ D- B B- B
1.05 58% 33% 34% -1 0 1.00 30% 1.0 .29 20% .25 72% .18 1.13 58% 42% 39% +3 0 1.09 31% 1.0 .30 13% .26 71% .18
Nov
4		 Arizona St. D- C F F F 46% 17% 37% B+ F B C+ B D+ F A+ F B D- B F F+ 44% 17% 39% D F+ C+ A+ A+ A- C+ A- B
0.88 56% 20% 14% -16 +1 0.73 36% 1.0 .36 22% .14 100% .14 1.11 67% 33% 43% +8 +1 1.20 31% 0.8 .26 19% .34 70% .24
Nov
8		 UT Rio Grande Valley D- B F D D 31% 27% 42% D- D D+ D+ D+ B- D F F+ F C+ A+ F F 47% 12% 42% F+ F F A+ C C- A+ A+ A+
0.98 65% 27% 30% -3 -1 0.93 28% 0.8 .21 15% .31 63% .19 1.30 57% 14% 64% +16 +2 1.37 44% 0.6 .28 16% .08 60% .05
Nov
15		 Nebraska Omaha C+ A A D- B- 45% 14% 41% B B C- F D- C+ D+ D+ D F+ C- D+ F F 44% 22% 35% D+ F C A+ A+ D- F F F
1.14 73% 50% 29% +5 +1 1.16 28% 0.7 .21 13% .26 71% .19 1.21 58% 42% 53% +11 0 1.24 25% 0.3 .06 13% .39 80% .31
Nov
17		 Gonzaga F C+ F F F 29% 29% 43% C F D+ F D- F D+ D+ D+ F F+ F F F 36% 42% 22% A+ F C+ F F D- C+ F C-
0.61 56% 25% 17% -15 -2 0.68 20% 0.6 .11 28% .26 67% .17 1.49 74% 63% 57% +24 -3 1.44 35% 1.6 .54 11% .27 80% .22
Nov
19		 Washington St. D+ B B- A A- 31% 31% 38% D- B+ F F F F C- C C- F F+ F C+ D 36% 24% 40% B+ D+ D F F F B B+ B
1.03 63% 44% 40% +7 -2 1.12 17% 0.8 .13 19% .28 75% .21 1.36 71% 57% 35% +10 -1 1.21 34% 1.9 .66 10% .25 69% .17
Nov
28		 Robert Morris F C- F F F 47% 22% 31% C F D B+ C F D F F A+ A+ F A+ A 27% 31% 41% A A+ B- C+ B- D B- A+ A-
0.84 57% 10% 21% -13 0 0.78 25% 1.1 .28 23% .32 63% .20 0.94 43% 56% 19% -8 -2 0.82 33% 1.1 .36 15% .22 50% .11
Nov
29		 Stetson F A F F D- 52% 20% 28% B- D F A- F+ F C+ A+ A- B D+ F A C- 36% 28% 36% B C- D- C+ D+ B+ A+ F B+
1.01 73% 20% 21% -1 +1 1.02 21% 1.3 .28 19% .30 88% .27 0.98 61% 50% 28% +1 -1 1.02 30% 1.0 .30 22% .18 80% .15
Dec
6		 Oregon St. D D+ A+ F D- 57% 8% 35% A D+ D- A+ A- F+ F F F D+ F B F F 40% 24% 36% B- F B- B B C+ B D+ B-
1.00 52% 50% 22% -9 +3 0.90 26% 1.7 .43 18% .24 64% .16 1.15 70% 33% 44% +9 0 1.20 24% 1.1 .28 18% .33 79% .26
Dec
13		 Washington C- A+ A D- A 28% 35% 37% D A- D+ F F C F F F F D F F F 35% 27% 38% C F C- B- C F D D+ D-
0.97 75% 45% 29% +4 -3 1.05 23% 0.4 .10 15% .17 50% .08 1.47 67% 50% 48% +14 -1 1.28 37% 1.1 .40 3% .33 78% .26
Dec
18		 Northern Arizona F F F A F 54% 21% 25% C F F F F F D- F+ F+ B A- B F B 51% 31% 18% C B C D+ C- F D C+ D+
0.88 46% 30% 42% -5 +1 0.94 24% 0.8 .18 23% .24 67% .16 1.00 48% 33% 44% -4 0 0.94 24% 1.1 .27 12% .30 65% .19
Dec
29		 Utah Tech F F B+ D F+ 51% 14% 35% B D- D+ D- D F A F B- C B- A+ F C 53% 11% 36% F D+ F A C- C C+ A+ B
0.92 48% 43% 29% -7 +2 0.92 28% 0.9 .26 21% .37 62% .23 1.11 55% 17% 45% +2 +2 1.11 38% 0.7 .28 17% .22 62% .13
Jan
3		 Texas Arlington C A F F B- 47% 22% 31% B+ B- D C D+ D C B C+ F B- D- F F 41% 22% 37% B- F A+ D+ A- D F+ D- F
1.06 71% 27% 25% -1 0 1.02 24% 1.1 .26 19% .36 76% .27 1.18 50% 45% 56% +10 0 1.22 24% 1.0 .24 18% .42 76% .32
Jan
8		 Utah Valley C- F F A+ C 40% 19% 42% C C D A C B- C- F F+ D- D- B+ F F 52% 19% 30% B- F+ F B+ D C+ C+ B+ B-
0.99 43% 20% 45% -2 0 0.98 26% 1.2 .31 19% .32 58% .19 1.22 68% 30% 44% +8 +1 1.20 46% 0.9 .43 21% .28 63% .17
Jan
10		 California Baptist D- F F F F 42% 18% 40% B- F A A+ A+ F F+ B- D- A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 39% 27% 35% A- A+ F D+ F+ F D- A+ C+
0.90 42% 13% 22% -18 +1 0.67 36% 1.3 .46 20% .25 75% .18 0.95 37% 23% 18% -21 -1 0.59 44% 1.0 .42 10% .35 58% .20
Jan
15		 Tarleton St. B B+ D- B+ B- 40% 11% 49% B B- D+ A+ B+ B A+ C A+ F B B F D 61% 18% 21% F F+ B- F F D+ D- C D-
1.17 67% 33% 38% +6 +1 1.17 30% 1.5 .45 20% .58 74% .43 1.16 50% 33% 57% +2 +2 1.09 28% 1.5 .44 18% .38 75% .28
Jan
17		 Abilene Christian D+ B- F C D 45% 12% 43% B- D+ A- F+ C+ D+ F C F A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 55% 14% 31% F A+ D A+ A+ C+ F D- F
1.04 65% 17% 36% +2 +2 1.10 34% 0.9 .31 24% .26 71% .18 0.73 30% 29% 20% -23 +2 0.59 35% 0.4 .16 21% .44 76% .34
Jan
21		 Utah Valley A- B- F A+ A+ 36% 23% 40% D+ A+ A B A F+ C+ A+ A- B+ A A+ A+ A+ 48% 13% 39% C A+ C B B- F D A C
1.19 59% 27% 53% +9 -1 1.19 39% 1.1 .43 24% .35 84% .30 0.99 48% 14% 23% -14 +2 0.77 37% 0.9 .35 14% .33 60% .20
Jan
24		 Utah Tech A A+ F D+ B+ 50% 24% 26% C- B C- A- B- B+ A+ A A+ F D+ F+ F F+ 52% 18% 31% D- F+ F+ F F F D- D+ D-
1.26 76% 25% 31% +5 0 1.12 30% 1.2 .37 12% .47 80% .38 1.41 63% 45% 42% +7 +1 1.19 34% 1.3 .46 4% .29 75% .22
Jan
29		 Texas Arlington F+ F B F+ D- 27% 43% 31% F F F+ F F C A F+ B D- C- A+ F D 53% 18% 29% D D- F A+ D+ D- D+ C- D
0.87 31% 43% 27% -9 -4 0.78 20% 0.8 .15 17% .45 65% .29 1.14 56% 22% 40% -2 +1 1.02 51% 0.7 .37 17% .38 73% .27
Jan
31		 Abilene Christian B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 53% 32% 16% D- A+ A D+ B+ F C+ A+ A D F C+ F F 30% 32% 38% A F A+ F B- F A+ A+ A+
1.16 85% 50% 50% +22 0 1.45 38% 1.0 .38 32% .45 86% .39 1.11 81% 35% 40% +9 -2 1.17 22% 1.1 .25 13% .20 50% .10
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Tarleton St. F F F B F 33% 23% 44% D+ F B F D F F A+ F B+ A F C C+ 50% 32% 18% C C+ B B B+ A- A A A+
0.86 38% 27% 38% -7 -1 0.88 38% 0.8 .30 28% .16 88% .14 0.90 44% 50% 33% -3 -1 0.94 27% 0.9 .24 23% .23 67% .15
Feb
12		 California Baptist D C+ F A B- 46% 24% 30% C+ B- D F F+ B+ C+ F D- F A- F F+ F 40% 29% 31% A D- C F F F A+ D+ A+
0.98 57% 25% 40% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.6 .14 12% .34 55% .18 1.23 43% 59% 39% +3 -1 1.05 37% 1.4 .51 12% .13 75% .10
Feb
14		 Texas Arlington B+ B- A+ A- A+ 36% 29% 36% C- A+ A- F C F A- D+ B+ C A+ F D D+ 45% 26% 30% B C- A- B+ A- F F B- F
1.12 63% 69% 38% +12 -1 1.24 36% 0.9 .32 23% .43 70% .30 1.05 38% 58% 36% -3 0 0.96 29% 0.8 .24 13% .48 69% .33
Feb
19		 Tarleton St. B- F F A+ D 35% 21% 44% C- D A- F C- C- A+ B+ A+ F+ F C- A+ F 62% 27% 11% F F D A+ B- F B- A+ B+
1.11 33% 22% 53% 0 0 1.02 42% 0.8 .33 22% .52 78% .40 1.17 71% 40% 17% +5 +1 1.15 35% 0.8 .26 15% .30 65% .19
Feb
21		 Abilene Christian B- C+ D A+ A+ 52% 20% 28% C+ A+ A F C F C- C+ C F+ F F A+ F 62% 12% 26% F F A A+ A+ F F C- F
1.11 63% 33% 69% +16 +1 1.37 38% 0.8 .29 32% .43 73% .31 1.16 71% 50% 23% +5 +3 1.18 24% 0.6 .14 16% .52 73% .38
Feb
28		 Utah Tech B B- A+ D- C+ 34% 24% 42% D- C A B A B- A+ D+ A B- A B F D+ 37% 29% 33% A C- A+ A+ A+ C C+ F C-
1.22 65% 50% 29% +2 -1 1.04 43% 1.1 .49 14% .40 70% .28 1.01 47% 33% 53% +4 -1 1.08 13% 0.5 .07 17% .22 83% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 10.9 6.0 16.9 4th
5th 46.8 28.8 2.0 77.6 5th
6th 5.5 5.5 6th
7th 7th
Total 52.3 39.7 8.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 8.0% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.2 7.8
7-11 39.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.5 39.1
6-12 52.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.5 51.8
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 16.0 98.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.3%
Lose Out 34.2%