Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -3.8 227
Results Rating -1.8 192
Consistency 0.16 234
Pace 65.4 263
Improvement +0.6 167

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 252 C D C- D- C+
Defense C 205 C- C+ C- C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 301 D- 51% 332 -4.9 339
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 299 B 42% 55 -1.1 239
Three Pointers 50% 27 C+ 35% 122 +5.4 30
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 151 C- -0.9 208
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 188
Second Chance C- 27.9% 250 D- 0.90 336 D 0.25 310
Opponents' Steals D+ 10.7% 297
Other Turnovers C+ 7.0% 140
Turnovers C- 17.6% 242
Freethrows D- 0.25 339 C 72% 205 D- 0.18 330
Total Offense C- -2.9 252

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 44% 254 F+ 15.1% 349
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 279 B 2.6% 30
Three Pointers C 84% 188 D- 1.6% 330
Total C+ 57% 152 D+ 6.4% 277


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 250 C- 59% 209 -0.8 146
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 219 B 35% 63 -1.2 92
Three Pointers 44% 81 D 37% 305 +3.6 328
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 172 C- +1.6 243
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 232
Second Chance C- 31.5% 242 B+ 0.91 31 C+ 0.29 102
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.8% 225
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 181
Turnovers C- 16.0% 221
Freethrows C+ 0.29 158 C 73% 198 C+ 0.21 159
Total Defense C -0.8 205

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 62 C 10.8% 182
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 34% 318 C+ 6.1% 99
Three Pointers C 84% 189 C- 0.8% 182
Total C 56% 201 C 5.5% 181

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 283 17.1 150
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 330 0.17 192
Consistency 0.16 353 0.12 132
Improvement -0.7 227 +1.3 112

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 238 227 211
Results Rating Rank 214 193 171
Conference Record 9 - 9 9 - 9 9 - 9
Conference Finish 7 7 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.8 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 3% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 35 - 75 - 11
Quad 411 - 416 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 346 Maine W 71 - 60 87% +6  99% 1 - 0 D+ -5 D- -7 D F A+ B- +2 B C+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 87 @Yale L 79 - 86 11% -7  3% 1 - 1 C+ +2 A +12 A+ B- F+ F -11 F+ C+ C+
 Thu, Nov 20 283 Brown W 80 - 70 72% +9  89% 2 - 1 C +0 B +7 B- A- A D- -7 F D D+
 Mon, Nov 24 126 Pacific L 58 - 86 27% -17  4% 2 - 2 F -25 F -12 F D D- F -14 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 237 Bethune-Cookman W 61 - 54 52% -2  33% 3 - 2 C+ +3 D- -8 D- D- F A+ +11 A A C-
 Fri, Nov 28 158 @Loyola Marymount W 71 - 68 25% +6  69% 4 - 2 B- +6 C +1 C+ D+ B- B +5 B D- A-
 Sat, Dec 6 127 @Duquesne L 75 - 84 19% -8  4% 4 - 3 C- -4 B- +4 D+ C A+ D- -8 F A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 9 190 Columbia W 77 - 73 OT 55% +8  91% 5 - 3 C -1 F+ -10 F+ B+ F A- +8 B+ A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 259 Central Michigan W 78 - 55 68% +16  97% 6 - 3 B+ +14 B- +5 A+ A+ F A+ +12 A+ A- F
 Wed, Dec 17 320 Albany L 55 - 71 81% -8  10% 6 - 4 F -29 F -24 F F A- D -6 F A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 21 202 @Marist L 51 - 70 33% -13  8% 6 - 5 F -18 F -16 F F C- D+ -4 C D F
 Mon, Dec 29 263 @Hampton L 59 - 62 46% +2  72% 6 - 6 0 - 1 D+ -6 F -11 B F F B +5 C D C-
 Wed, Dec 31 139 @William & Mary L 57 - 76 23% -6  5% 6 - 7 0 - 2 F+ -15 F -13 F F D+ D+ -3 F A- B-
 Sat, Jan 3 281 N.C. A&T W 81 - 80 71% +4  71% 7 - 7 1 - 2 D -9 B- +5 B+ D+ C+ F -14 C F D
 Thu, Jan 8 214 @Drexel L 37 - 56 36% -7  17% 7 - 8 1 - 3 F -19 F -27 F C B- B- +3 A F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 106 UNC Wilmington L 71 - 75 32% +8  72% 7 - 9 1 - 4 C- -3 C +1 C A+ C- D+ -4 F+ D+ C
 Thu, Jan 15 104 Hofstra W 76 - 71 31% +6  89% 8 - 9 2 - 4 B- +6 A+ +15 A+ C+ B+ D- -8 D+ B F
 Sat, Jan 17 144 College of Charleston W 112 - 106 2OT 43% +3  68% 9 - 9 3 - 4 C+ +4 A+ +15 A+ D A F -12 D+ F F
 Thu, Jan 22 296 @Northeastern W 95 - 80 55% +9  94% 10 - 9 4 - 4 B +10 A +13 A+ C- F D+ -3 B F F
 Thu, Jan 29 185 @Campbell W 81 - 69 31% +3  75% 11 - 9 5 - 4 B+ +13 B+ +9 A+ F B B +5 C A- C-
 Sat, Jan 31 241 @Elon W 72 - 68 41% +6  90% 12 - 9 6 - 4 C+ +2 D -6 D C D- A- +8 C- A+ C+
 Thu, Feb 5 180 Monmouth L 75 - 76 52% -8  0% 12 - 10 6 - 5 D+ -5 D+ -3 B- C- F C- -2 C- A+ F+
 Sat, Feb 7 296 Northeastern W 69 - 55 76% +10  73% 13 - 10 7 - 5 C+ +3 F -11 D+ F D- A+ +15 A+ D- C+
 Thu, Feb 12 167 @Towson L 57 - 69 28% -10  0% 13 - 11 7 - 6 D -10 F+ -8 F C+ A- C- -2 C C- D
 Mon, Feb 16 214 Drexel W 72 - 69 59% -1  34% 14 - 11 8 - 6 C- -3 C+ +2 C+ F+ A+ D+ -5 D- D- A+
 Sat, Feb 21 263 Hampton W 79 - 72 69% +5  73% 15 - 11 9 - 6 C- -2 C+ +2 A+ D F D+ -4 F+ A- B
 Thu, Feb 26 180 @Monmouth L 69 - 82 30% -12  0% 15 - 12 9 - 7 D -11 C- -2 C- C C- F -10 F F C
 Sat, Feb 28 104 @Hofstra L 58 - 67 15% -5  4% 15 - 13 9 - 8 C- -2 F -13 F D- C A +11 C+ A+ B+
 Tue, Mar 3 167 Towson L 57 - 69 49% +4  75% 15 - 14 9 - 9 F+ -16 F+ -9 C F D+ F+ -8 D- C D+
 Sat, Mar 7 185 Campbell L 74 - 76 42%
Totals 15 - 15 9 - 9 -4 C- -3 C C- C+ C -1 C+ C D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D- B C+ C- 34% 27% 50% C+ C C- D- D C- D- C D- C C- B D C- 37% 19% 44% C C- C- B+ C+ C- C+ C C+
1.04 51% 42% 35% -1 0 1.01 28% 0.9 .25 18% .25 72% .18 1.10 59% 35% 37% +2 0 1.05 31% 0.9 .29 16% .29 73% .18
Nov
8		 Maine D- C C- F D- 47% 21% 32% C+ D F F F A+ A- D B B- F A+ A+ B+ 46% 23% 31% C- B B+ F C+ F F B D-
1.02 60% 36% 24% -5 +1 0.94 24% 0.7 .17 11% .37 65% .24 0.86 68% 9% 20% -9 0 0.85 14% 1.2 .16 16% .42 60% .25
Nov
15		 Yale A A+ B A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% C+ A+ D- A+ B- F+ A- C- B+ F C+ A- F F 40% 23% 38% B- F+ F A+ C+ C+ F F F
1.24 73% 43% 43% +13 0 1.29 23% 1.5 .35 19% .33 71% .23 1.35 56% 33% 60% +13 0 1.28 40% 0.9 .36 16% .61 85% .52
Nov
20		 Brown B C- F A+ C+ 53% 16% 31% A- B- C+ A+ A- A C+ D C- D- B+ F F F 42% 22% 36% B F F B- D D+ B+ A+ A
1.20 56% 25% 44% +1 +2 1.08 32% 1.3 .41 13% .35 70% .24 1.05 48% 55% 44% +5 0 1.12 35% 1.0 .35 19% .20 55% .11
Nov
24		 Pacific F F A+ F F 23% 19% 58% B- F D- C D D- F A+ D+ F F D- F F 40% 33% 28% A F A+ C A+ C+ F F F
0.87 33% 50% 27% -10 -1 0.81 18% 1.0 .18 18% .24 85% .20 1.29 94% 46% 64% +29 -1 1.58 18% 1.0 .18 21% .45 83% .38
Nov
25		 Bethune-Cookman D- D D D D 26% 19% 55% F+ D- B+ F D- F C+ F D+ A+ A- C+ A+ A 42% 35% 23% A A F A+ A C- F A- F
0.97 50% 33% 31% -6 -1 0.89 38% 0.7 .28 22% .33 63% .20 0.86 50% 33% 20% -10 -2 0.79 45% 0.4 .17 17% .50 62% .31
Nov
28		 Loyola Marymount C F A+ D+ C+ 38% 21% 40% B- C+ D- B D+ B- A A A+ B D- A+ A- A- 38% 13% 50% F B F B+ D- A- F F F
1.04 33% 80% 32% -2 0 0.98 24% 1.1 .27 15% .38 82% .31 1.00 67% 17% 29% -3 +1 0.98 39% 0.9 .35 22% .38 80% .30
Dec
6		 Duquesne B- F A+ D D 36% 13% 52% B+ D+ B- D+ C A+ F A- F D- B- F F F 38% 11% 51% C+ F F A+ A+ D+ F C- F
1.09 35% 86% 31% -5 +1 0.95 32% 0.9 .29 12% .23 79% .18 1.22 56% 60% 46% +10 +1 1.26 38% 0.5 .18 16% .45 73% .33
Dec
9		 Columbia F+ F B+ B- F 46% 19% 35% C+ F+ C A+ B+ F B- F+ C A- C A+ B A- 43% 11% 46% D+ B+ D A+ A+ B- D F F+
0.97 35% 45% 35% -9 +1 0.86 30% 1.2 .36 20% .33 67% .22 0.92 57% 17% 32% -4 +2 0.96 40% 0.4 .16 23% .31 79% .25
Dec
13		 Central Michigan B- F+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 23% 35% D+ A+ A+ C A+ F C B C+ A+ C+ C+ A+ A+ 34% 25% 42% C A+ A+ F A- F C+ F D+
1.22 50% 50% 67% +16 0 1.35 54% 1.2 .63 31% .34 73% .25 0.86 56% 38% 9% -16 -1 0.68 18% 1.3 .23 12% .27 80% .21
Dec
17		 Albany F F F+ F F 42% 18% 40% C F F F F A- F D- F D F A+ F F 43% 9% 48% F F C+ A+ A+ D+ F A+ C
0.84 42% 30% 26% -13 +1 0.77 17% 0.4 .07 11% .22 69% .15 1.09 75% 25% 41% +11 +2 1.28 30% 0.4 .12 18% .34 44% .15
Dec
21		 Marist F F F F F 22% 31% 47% F+ F F+ F F C- C- F D D+ C+ B+ C C 35% 23% 42% D+ C C- F+ D F C C C
0.77 45% 27% 26% -12 -2 0.73 22% 0.7 .15 20% .34 61% .21 1.06 56% 33% 32% -3 -1 0.94 27% 1.2 .32 12% .24 79% .19
Dec
29		 Hampton F F+ D+ A+ C+ 50% 7% 43% A B D- F F F B- F F B F F A+ C 31% 27% 42% C+ C A- F D C- C- A+ B+
0.92 52% 33% 44% +4 +3 1.14 23% 0.3 .06 25% .41 45% .19 0.96 71% 50% 16% -4 -1 0.91 26% 1.4 .35 17% .36 58% .21
Dec
31		 William & Mary F B F F+ F 24% 14% 63% D+ F B F F D+ F A+ D- D+ D+ F F F 39% 9% 52% C F C- A+ A- B- D+ D- D-
0.88 67% 14% 28% -7 0 0.88 35% 0.3 .09 20% .17 89% .15 1.17 65% 50% 43% +11 +2 1.27 28% 0.8 .21 18% .38 80% .30
Jan
3		 N.C. A&T B- C- D- A+ B+ 40% 17% 42% C+ B+ D- B D+ C+ F+ A+ D+ F A+ B- F C 40% 33% 27% C C F A+ F D C F F+
1.24 57% 33% 50% +9 +1 1.21 22% 1.1 .25 12% .24 79% .19 1.22 43% 35% 50% -1 -1 0.98 56% 0.8 .46 17% .35 89% .31
Jan
8		 Drexel F F F F F 26% 17% 57% C F B- D C B- F D+ F B- A+ A+ D+ A+ 36% 12% 52% D- A C- F F B+ B F C
0.65 25% 13% 15% -29 0 0.43 34% 0.9 .32 14% .22 73% .16 0.98 33% 20% 36% -9 +1 0.86 30% 1.3 .40 23% .23 80% .18
Jan
10		 UNC Wilmington C F A+ F+ C 30% 21% 49% B- C D A+ A+ C- F A F D+ B- A+ F F+ 35% 17% 48% D- F+ B+ F D+ C A A+ A+
1.08 44% 73% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 2.1 .47 15% .11 83% .09 1.15 53% 13% 48% +4 0 1.10 30% 1.4 .41 15% .27 47% .13
Jan
15		 Hofstra A+ C+ B- A+ A+ 33% 20% 47% C+ A+ B+ D- C+ B+ C- D- D+ D- B- A+ F D+ 27% 21% 52% C D+ D A+ B F A F+ A-
1.28 56% 40% 43% +6 0 1.14 36% 0.9 .33 12% .29 67% .19 1.20 54% 20% 44% +3 -1 1.06 37% 0.8 .29 12% .21 82% .17
Jan
17		 College of Charleston A+ C+ A+ A A+ 35% 12% 53% A- A+ F A+ D A A+ F+ A+ F B A F C- 46% 19% 35% D- D+ B F F F F F F
1.30 61% 75% 40% +10 +1 1.24 20% 1.2 .24 9% .40 65% .26 1.23 55% 25% 41% 0 +1 1.03 26% 1.6 .43 12% .47 83% .39
Jan
22		 Northeastern A C+ D+ A+ A+ 33% 10% 57% C+ A+ B+ F C- F C+ B- B- D+ F A+ A+ B 39% 18% 44% C B C+ F F F D+ A+ A-
1.33 63% 40% 57% +21 +1 1.47 37% 0.8 .30 21% .36 75% .27 1.12 73% 20% 24% -4 0 0.95 26% 1.8 .46 11% .30 42% .13
Jan
29		 Campbell B+ B B+ A+ A+ 45% 15% 40% B A+ B F F B C+ B+ B- B F A+ D D+ 31% 25% 43% A+ C A+ D- A- C- A F B
1.22 67% 43% 47% +13 +1 1.30 36% 0.5 .18 15% .32 78% .25 1.04 69% 15% 36% -1 -1 0.98 23% 1.1 .26 17% .29 81% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Elon D F B+ B+ D 24% 18% 57% D+ D B- C- C D- A- B- A A- C+ C+ D C 57% 6% 37% F C- C- A+ A+ C+ C- C C-
1.04 33% 44% 39% 0 -1 1.00 36% 1.1 .39 19% .36 75% .27 0.99 55% 33% 37% 0 +3 1.08 33% 0.3 .10 17% .32 72% .23
Feb
5		 Monmouth D+ B F A- B- 34% 10% 56% B- B- C D C- F C+ A+ A- C- D A+ D+ C 35% 23% 42% C- C- C+ A+ A+ F+ F D F
1.05 65% 0% 39% +3 +1 1.10 31% 0.9 .29 24% .29 88% .26 1.06 61% 25% 36% 0 -1 1.00 30% 0.6 .19 14% .37 78% .29
Feb
7		 Northeastern F A+ C F D+ 38% 15% 47% C D+ F A F D- C+ C C+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ 30% 26% 44% A A+ C F D- C+ D B C-
1.03 78% 43% 27% +4 +1 1.11 14% 1.3 .17 19% .35 74% .26 0.82 47% 23% 18% -18 -1 0.64 26% 1.4 .36 18% .31 65% .20
Feb
12		 Towson F+ C F F F 27% 20% 53% D+ F C C+ C+ A- D F D- C- A F B- C 33% 30% 37% C C D C+ C- D B- D+ C+
0.90 57% 20% 22% -13 -1 0.75 28% 1.0 .28 11% .23 62% .14 1.09 44% 50% 30% -3 -2 0.93 38% 0.8 .31 14% .26 71% .18
Feb
16		 Drexel C+ F+ B+ B- C 36% 21% 43% C C+ D+ F F+ A+ C+ A B+ D+ B F+ F F+ 36% 24% 40% B D- F B+ D- A+ A- F C+
1.10 47% 45% 35% -2 0 0.98 27% 0.8 .22 9% .32 84% .27 1.06 50% 45% 44% +5 -1 1.11 42% 0.8 .33 26% .21 80% .17
Feb
21		 Hampton C+ B A+ A+ A+ 39% 10% 51% B A+ D C- D F A+ A- A+ D+ C- B- F F+ 41% 24% 35% D F+ D+ A+ A- B C C C
1.15 69% 75% 43% +15 +1 1.34 24% 1.0 .24 23% .51 74% .38 1.04 57% 33% 39% +1 0 1.04 34% 0.6 .21 20% .35 74% .25
Feb
26		 Monmouth C- D A+ F D+ 31% 15% 54% C C- D A C C- F F+ F F C F D- F 27% 23% 50% C+ F C- F F C A C+ A
1.02 53% 75% 28% -1 0 1.00 26% 1.2 .32 19% .11 67% .07 1.21 57% 67% 38% +10 -1 1.19 32% 1.5 .48 18% .20 73% .14
Feb
28		 Hofstra F F D+ F F 35% 11% 55% A- F D+ F D- C D D- D- A B+ A+ D C+ 18% 18% 64% C+ C+ A+ C+ A+ B+ F C- F
0.84 37% 33% 23% -17 +1 0.71 27% 0.8 .23 14% .25 67% .17 0.97 50% 25% 38% 0 -1 1.00 16% 1.0 .16 20% .47 77% .36
Mar
3		 Towson F+ F A+ B- C+ 25% 18% 57% C- C D+ F F D+ F B+ F F+ B D+ F F+ 26% 26% 49% C D- D B- C D+ F+ A D+
0.93 38% 56% 34% -2 -1 0.98 24% 0.4 .11 16% .08 75% .06 1.13 50% 42% 39% +3 -2 1.04 39% 0.8 .31 15% .34 61% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 100.0% 1.6% 1.6% 14.8 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.1 98.5
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 14.8 98.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 14.8 1.9 25.8 63.2 9.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 13.2%
Lose Out 42.0%