UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +1.1 142
Results Rating -0.1 157
Consistency 0.15 153
Pace 62.9 327
Improvement +1.4 135

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 102 B C+ D+ B- C
Defense C- 220 C- C C- D C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 217 C+ 60% 116 +0.0 185
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 223 C 38% 163 -0.6 214
Three Pointers 44% 119 B+ 38% 19 +4.5 41
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 176 B +3.6 70
1st FG Attempt B 1.10 76
Second Chance C+ 31.2% 157 C 1.05 154 C+ 0.33 137
Opponents' Steals D+ 10.4% 271
Other Turnovers D+ 8.0% 275
Turnovers D+ 18.4% 287
Freethrows C+ 0.31 160 B 77% 35 B- 0.24 114
Total Offense C+ +2.7 102

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D+ 41% 290 C- 11.6% 220
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 30% 108 B- 3.9% 101
Three Pointers C+ 86% 143 D+ 1.2% 271
Total C 56% 170 C 5.6% 186


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 162 D+ 61% 277 +1.8 239
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 155 D+ 41% 278 +0.8 248
Three Pointers 40% 225 C 34% 186 -0.7 150
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 160 D+ +1.8 254
1st FG Attempt C- 1.06 241
Second Chance B- 27.2% 68 D 1.13 304 C 0.31 169
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.7% 234
Other Turnovers C+ 7.5% 138
Turnovers C- 16.3% 205
Freethrows D 0.35 314 C 72% 183 D 0.25 310
Total Defense C- -1.6 220

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 45% 123 D+ 8.0% 298
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 226 D- 1.6% 339
Three Pointers C+ 81% 106 C- 0.6% 227
Total C+ 52% 117 D 3.7% 320

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.8 322 17.6 237
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 273 0.18 208
Consistency 0.14 323 0.13 224
Improvement -2.2 295 +3.6 34

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 159 142 128
Results Rating Rank 189 158 118
Conference Record 11 - 9 12 - 8 12 - 8
Conference Finish 6 4 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9% 12% 6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 13.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round9% 12% 6%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: UC San Diego (Home) - 58.7% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 41 - 4
Quad 35 - 65 - 10
Quad 412 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 223 San Jose St. W 85 - 74 77% +9  95% 1 - 0 C+ +4 A +14 A+ B C D- -8 D+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 272 @Sacramento St. W 92 - 87 66% +6  83% 2 - 0 C+ +2 B+ +9 B D+ A+ D- -8 F D+ B-
 Mon, Nov 17 158 Loyola Marymount L 74 - 78 OT 65% +3  56% 2 - 1 D+ -7 D -5 D C A+ C- -2 C- B+ C+
 Sat, Nov 22 81 @Nevada L 64 - 77 19% -8  1% 2 - 2 C- -3 D -5 D- B+ F B- +2 D A+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 292 Lehigh W 72 - 70 80% -1  45% 3 - 2 D+ -6 C- -1 F C- B- D -5 C F+ C+
 Sat, Nov 29 117 Seattle W 74 - 71 43% +1  52% 4 - 2 B- +6 A+ +15 A+ A+ F F+ -8 F+ C- D-
 Thu, Dec 4 268 Long Beach St. W 84 - 77 OT 83% +1  53% 5 - 2 1 - 0 C- -2 C +0 C+ F D C- -2 A F C
 Sat, Dec 6 329 Cal St. Bakersfield W 109 - 84 92% +14  93% 6 - 2 2 - 0 B +11 A+ +22 A+ A+ B F -12 F A+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 97 Utah Valley L 53 - 68 33% -12  0% 6 - 3 D -9 F -16 F C F B+ +6 A- A- B
 Wed, Dec 17 210 @Green Bay L 64 - 67 53% -8  0% 6 - 4 C- -3 C +1 A C+ F D+ -4 F A+ D-
 Mon, Dec 22 215 Portland W 79 - 61 75% +11  78% 7 - 4 B+ +12 B+ +9 A+ C+ D- B +5 A F B
 Thu, Jan 1 203 @Cal St. Fullerton L 84 - 95 52% -13  0% 7 - 5 2 - 1 D -10 C +1 A+ C F F -11 F+ D D
 Sat, Jan 3 168 @Cal St. Northridge L 65 - 74 45% -6  0% 7 - 6 2 - 2 D+ -7 F -11 F F+ F+ B +5 C C- A
 Thu, Jan 8 175 UC Davis L 86 - 93 69% +3  51% 7 - 7 2 - 3 D -11 B +7 A+ F A+ F -18 F F+ D
 Thu, Jan 15 329 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 75 - 69 81% +9  97% 8 - 7 3 - 3 C- -2 B- +5 B- F+ C- D- -7 C F F
 Sat, Jan 17 118 Hawaii W 77 - 62 55% +12  98% 9 - 7 4 - 3 A- +15 A+ +15 A+ A- D- B- +2 B- C+ B
 Thu, Jan 22 226 Cal Poly W 107 - 67 77% +24  99% 10 - 7 5 - 3 A+ +33 A+ +32 A+ A+ B B- +3 C- A- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 268 @Long Beach St. W 74 - 71 65% +8  96% 11 - 7 6 - 3 C +0 B +6 C+ C A D -6 F A F
 Thu, Jan 29 133 @UC San Diego W 62 - 48 36% +9  92% 12 - 7 7 - 3 A +19 D -5 D+ D D A+ +24 B A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 203 Cal St. Fullerton W 83 - 69 73% +13  99% 13 - 7 8 - 3 B +9 C +0 B D+ F+ A- +8 B- C+ A
 Thu, Feb 5 175 @UC Davis L 75 - 85 47% -5  14% 13 - 8 8 - 4 D+ -8 B +7 C+ C+ D+ F -16 F A+ D
 Sat, Feb 7 123 UC Irvine W 84 - 79 55% +6  58% 14 - 8 9 - 4 C+ +5 A +13 A+ B D+ F+ -8 F+ A D
 Thu, Feb 12 276 @UC Riverside W 76 - 68 67% -3  25% 15 - 8 10 - 4 C+ +5 B +7 C- A+ D C- -2 F B A+
 Sat, Feb 14 226 @Cal Poly L 79 - 89 57% +0  35% 15 - 9 10 - 5 D -11 B +6 C- B+ A- F -17 F D F
 Thu, Feb 19 168 Cal St. Northridge L 83 - 85 OT 68% +2  55% 15 - 10 10 - 6 D+ -6 D- -7 D- D F+ C+ +2 A+ D+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 118 @Hawaii L 75 - 78 OT 32% +0  52% 15 - 11 10 - 7 C+ +3 C+ +2 B+ D- C C+ +1 A F F
 Thu, Feb 26 276 UC Riverside W 70 - 59 84% +4  78% 16 - 11 11 - 7 C +2 D- -6 D+ C+ F+ A- +8 A A D
 Sat, Feb 28 123 @UC Irvine L 60 - 64 33% -5  8% 16 - 12 11 - 8 C+ +2 D+ -3 B- B+ F B +5 A+ F F
 Sat, Mar 7 133 UC San Diego W 72 - 70 59%
Totals 17 - 12 12 - 8 +1 C+ +3 B+ B C C- -2 B+ B B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C+ C B+ B 37% 34% 44% C B C+ C C+ D+ C+ B B- C- D+ D+ C D+ 39% 21% 40% C C- B- D C C- D C D
1.13 60% 38% 38% +4 0 1.10 31% 1.0 .33 18% .31 77% .24 1.11 61% 41% 34% +2 0 1.06 27% 1.1 .31 16% .35 72% .23
Nov
8		 San Jose St. A B- A+ A+ A+ 37% 22% 41% D+ A+ A- C- B C A D+ B+ D- C F A+ D+ 32% 32% 36% C+ D+ F F F A+ F F+ F
1.36 65% 60% 53% +19 0 1.39 42% 1.1 .46 18% .37 74% .27 1.18 57% 64% 25% +3 -2 1.05 44% 1.5 .64 22% .43 81% .35
Nov
11		 Sacramento St. B+ D F+ A+ B 44% 17% 39% C- B D B- D+ A+ B+ B A- D- C- F F F 40% 27% 33% C- F B- F D+ B- D+ A+ B-
1.25 54% 33% 48% +5 +1 1.15 29% 1.2 .34 11% .38 76% .29 1.19 57% 57% 41% +8 -1 1.17 24% 1.4 .32 16% .37 65% .24
Nov
17		 Loyola Marymount D C F F D- 39% 24% 37% C+ D D A C A+ D D+ D C- A B- F C- 37% 21% 42% D C- D- A+ B+ C+ F A+ F
1.00 54% 27% 26% -9 0 0.84 27% 1.3 .33 8% .25 71% .18 1.06 47% 36% 45% +3 0 1.08 31% 0.7 .21 19% .48 52% .25
Nov
22		 Nevada D C- F F F+ 38% 11% 51% B D- C A+ B+ F A+ D- A- B- F+ F+ A- D 45% 25% 30% D D A A A+ A F F F
0.94 53% 20% 26% -10 +1 0.84 26% 1.5 .39 22% .43 65% .28 1.13 65% 45% 31% +4 0 1.09 26% 0.9 .22 19% .54 87% .47
Nov
28		 Lehigh C- F+ C- F F 54% 22% 24% B- F B+ F C- B- A+ A+ A+ D D A+ F+ C 20% 20% 61% B- C C F F+ C+ F F F
1.12 48% 40% 18% -11 +1 0.83 41% 0.8 .32 14% .58 88% .51 1.09 63% 13% 40% +1 -1 1.02 21% 1.3 .29 19% .44 91% .40
Nov
29		 Seattle A+ C A+ A A+ 31% 14% 56% C+ A+ A+ B+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ F+ D- F B+ F 49% 28% 23% B F+ B+ F C- D- F B+ F+
1.18 55% 60% 40% +7 0 1.17 50% 1.1 .54 27% .55 88% .48 1.13 67% 58% 30% +8 0 1.19 20% 1.2 .24 14% .41 64% .26
Dec
4		 Long Beach St. C C- A A A- 15% 43% 43% F C+ C F F D A+ A+ A+ C- B- A+ C A 16% 40% 44% A+ A F F F C F D- F
1.14 57% 50% 40% +9 -5 1.11 28% 0.4 .13 19% .64 84% .54 1.04 56% 23% 33% -7 -4 0.80 39% 1.3 .50 18% .40 79% .31
Dec
6		 Cal St. Bakersfield A+ A A+ A+ A+ 38% 13% 48% B- A+ A B+ A+ B A+ A A+ F C- D+ F F 37% 22% 41% F F A+ A+ A+ D F B F
1.50 70% 57% 44% +14 +1 1.33 47% 1.2 .56 15% .55 79% .44 1.15 59% 40% 53% +12 0 1.26 17% 0.4 .07 16% .61 70% .43
Dec
13		 Utah Valley F F F+ F F 57% 22% 22% B F C C C F D A+ C B+ A+ F C+ A- 45% 11% 45% C A- C+ A A- B D- F F
0.78 35% 30% 20% -20 +1 0.65 31% 1.0 .31 28% .29 86% .25 1.01 43% 60% 33% -5 +2 0.96 35% 0.8 .30 22% .34 78% .27
Dec
17		 Green Bay C A+ B- C+ A- 48% 12% 40% A A F+ A+ C+ F F D+ F D+ B- A+ F F 49% 2% 49% F F A+ A+ A+ D- F A+ B-
1.13 75% 40% 35% +9 +2 1.24 23% 1.6 .36 19% .15 71% .11 1.18 52% 0% 52% +10 +3 1.28 11% 0.3 .04 12% .46 52% .24
Dec
22		 Portland B+ A+ F A+ A+ 34% 11% 55% B- A+ C+ C+ C+ D- F F F B C+ B A+ A+ 50% 19% 31% D A D+ F F B A A+ A+
1.24 81% 20% 46% +16 +1 1.36 33% 1.1 .37 20% .18 56% .10 0.96 58% 33% 13% -10 +1 0.83 31% 1.6 .50 22% .22 64% .14
Jan
1		 Cal St. Fullerton C A+ B- A+ A+ 27% 14% 59% C- A+ A- F C F F A+ D F F F A+ F 43% 25% 31% C F+ A F D D F F F
1.10 85% 43% 45% +17 0 1.37 37% 0.8 .30 32% .19 100% .19 1.25 77% 54% 25% +8 0 1.18 17% 1.8 .31 13% .56 81% .45
Jan
3		 Cal St. Northridge F D+ F F F 46% 5% 48% A+ F D+ F F+ F+ B A+ A- B D- F A+ C+ 52% 14% 33% D+ C C+ D C- A F B- F
0.89 54% 0% 19% -15 +3 0.77 24% 0.9 .21 19% .34 85% .29 1.01 64% 67% 14% -3 +2 1.00 31% 1.1 .34 22% .65 62% .40
Jan
8		 UC Davis B A D A+ A+ 37% 18% 45% C- A+ F C+ F A+ A F B- F F C F F 22% 22% 57% B+ F C F F+ D D- F F
1.21 68% 33% 52% +15 0 1.33 14% 1.0 .14 13% .40 64% .26 1.31 91% 36% 41% +13 -1 1.25 27% 1.4 .37 15% .40 83% .33
Jan
15		 Cal St. Bakersfield B- C+ A B B- 24% 14% 62% D+ B- C- F F+ C- A+ A A+ D- C F A+ C- 39% 39% 22% C+ C D+ F F F D+ B C-
1.21 60% 50% 38% +6 0 1.14 34% 0.8 .28 18% .57 79% .45 1.12 56% 50% 10% -4 -2 0.89 33% 1.4 .45 13% .39 71% .28
Jan
17		 Hawaii A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 36% 27% 38% D A+ A- B A- D- C- A+ B- B- A+ F D+ B- 39% 16% 45% B- B- D+ B+ C+ B A D A-
1.24 75% 42% 41% +11 -1 1.22 35% 1.1 .38 19% .30 80% .24 1.00 41% 57% 35% -3 +1 0.98 32% 0.9 .29 21% .26 77% .20
Jan
22		 Cal Poly A+ A+ F A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% B- A+ A+ C+ A+ B F C F B- F A+ A C- 39% 7% 54% C- C- A+ F A- C- F+ A D+
1.60 95% 29% 56% +29 +1 1.63 45% 1.1 .50 13% .19 73% .14 1.00 78% 0% 28% 0 +2 1.07 17% 1.2 .21 19% .37 70% .26
Jan
24		 Long Beach St. B D- D- A+ C+ 52% 19% 29% B C+ C+ C- C A F+ F+ F D D- F+ D F 38% 23% 40% F+ F A+ B- A F D+ F F+
1.18 52% 33% 50% +3 +1 1.10 30% 1.2 .37 13% .29 69% .20 1.13 67% 45% 37% +7 0 1.15 15% 1.0 .15 13% .29 88% .26
Jan
29		 UC San Diego D F F A C- 24% 24% 51% D- D+ F+ B D D A+ C A A+ B A+ D- A- 57% 12% 31% F+ B C A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ B
0.95 36% 27% 39% -4 -1 0.91 21% 1.1 .24 18% .37 70% .26 0.73 54% 0% 38% -5 +2 0.98 26% 0.0 .00 29% .26 58% .15
Jan
31		 Cal St. Fullerton C A+ A+ D+ B- 38% 9% 53% B B B F D+ F+ C- A+ B- A- F+ A+ D+ B- 31% 25% 43% B+ B- A+ F C+ A C+ B+ B-
1.13 75% 60% 32% +7 +1 1.19 34% 0.7 .25 22% .30 82% .24 0.94 69% 15% 36% -1 -1 0.98 15% 1.6 .24 20% .31 67% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 UC Davis B D A+ B+ C- 68% 2% 30% A+ C+ A F C+ D+ A B- A F F+ A+ F F 50% 14% 36% F F C- A+ A+ D F F F
1.16 53% 100% 38% 0 +4 1.11 42% 0.8 .33 20% .41 76% .31 1.31 68% 17% 56% +14 +2 1.34 28% 0.4 .12 15% .48 88% .42
Feb
7		 UC Irvine A A+ A+ D- A+ 36% 28% 36% D+ A+ B+ C B D+ A+ B+ A+ F+ F B- F+ F 36% 41% 23% A+ F+ A A A D A F C
1.18 65% 69% 29% +9 -1 1.17 39% 0.9 .36 20% .44 76% .33 1.11 75% 35% 38% +6 -3 1.09 23% 0.9 .19 15% .22 92% .20
Feb
12		 UC Riverside B D- F A+ D+ 45% 17% 38% B- C- B A+ A+ D C+ B B- C- F F D F 38% 20% 42% C+ F B+ B- B A+ C A+ B
1.18 52% 13% 44% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.4 .48 17% .36 74% .26 1.06 76% 56% 37% +12 0 1.27 23% 0.8 .18 26% .30 64% .19
Feb
14		 Cal Poly B F A+ C C- 28% 15% 57% C- C- D A+ B+ A- B C B F F F D- F 43% 8% 49% C- F B- F D F F D+ F
1.18 47% 63% 33% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.6 .43 12% .32 74% .24 1.33 71% 50% 38% +9 +2 1.24 28% 1.3 .34 12% .44 81% .36
Feb
19		 Cal St. Northridge D- F F C+ D- 20% 18% 63% D D- C F D F+ A+ A- A+ C+ B- A+ A+ A+ 48% 27% 24% A- A+ C D- D+ F F C- F
1.00 45% 20% 34% -5 -1 0.89 27% 0.9 .25 19% .48 81% .39 1.02 53% 22% 19% -12 0 0.77 32% 1.1 .36 7% .39 67% .26
Feb
21		 Hawaii C+ D+ A+ B- B 47% 15% 38% B+ B+ D- F+ D- C B+ A+ A C+ A- A+ A- A+ 47% 18% 35% C A A- F F F F B+ F
1.01 52% 50% 35% -1 +1 1.04 21% 0.9 .18 16% .37 78% .29 1.05 50% 22% 28% -10 +1 0.84 24% 1.9 .46 12% .52 68% .35
Feb
26		 UC Riverside D- B+ D+ D+ C 32% 34% 34% F D+ C- B+ C+ F+ A+ D+ A+ A- D+ B+ A+ A+ 42% 27% 31% B A A+ B- A D F+ F F
1.03 67% 38% 31% +1 -2 1.00 29% 1.1 .32 19% .51 68% .34 0.87 60% 31% 13% -11 -1 0.79 15% 0.8 .12 16% .37 81% .30
Feb
28		 UC Irvine D+ F A+ A- B- 31% 18% 51% C+ B- F A+ B+ F F+ A- D B B+ B+ A+ A+ 41% 41% 17% A A+ C+ F F F F B+ F
0.91 29% 50% 39% -3 0 0.96 20% 2.0 .40 27% .19 78% .15 0.97 47% 32% 0% -16 -2 0.65 30% 1.7 .51 11% .46 63% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 28.0 28.0 3rd
4th 1.7 30.8 32.4 4th
5th 29.5 29.5 5th
6th 9.4 9.4 6th
7th 0.8 0.8 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 41.3 58.7 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 58.7% 11.6% 11.6% 13.4 0.5 3.4 2.7 0.2 51.9
11-9 41.3% 6.4% 6.4% 13.7 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 38.6
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 13.5 90.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.8% 100.0% 13.4 7.3 50.3 39.7 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 18.5%
Lose Out 16.3%