Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -9.2 311
Results Rating -9.8 318
Consistency 0.17 267
Pace 72.1 85
Improvement +1.6 131

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 296 D+ C+ D D+ C+
Defense D 306 D+ D F+ B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 44 D 53% 304 +0.9 145
2 Pt. Jumpers 47% 79 B- 42% 65 +1.3 108
Three Pointers 34% 317 D 31% 298 -5.0 333
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.2 170 D+ -2.9 277
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 268
Second Chance C+ 31.2% 155 C+ 1.05 147 C+ 0.33 133
Opponents' Steals F 12.4% 358
Other Turnovers B- 6.7% 106
Turnovers D 19.1% 321
Freethrows C 0.31 182 F 64% 362 D+ 0.20 275
Total Offense D+ -4.7 296

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 190 D- 14.5% 341
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 220 C+ 4.1% 121
Three Pointers D 78% 301 C 0.9% 200
Total D+ 50% 307 F+ 7.6% 342


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 9 C- 59% 204 +5.4 343
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 215 D+ 41% 288 +0.0 190
Three Pointers 34% 351 D+ 36% 271 -2.8 60
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 319 D+ +1.8 252
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 267
Second Chance C- 31.3% 232 D- 1.16 343 D 0.36 308
Turnovers from Steals F+ 6.5% 351
Other Turnovers D+ 6.5% 288
Turnovers F+ 13.0% 352
Freethrows B- 0.27 80 C 72% 171 B- 0.19 77
Total Defense D -4.5 306

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 145 D 7.7% 310
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 22% 109 D+ 3.3% 268
Three Pointers B- 80% 66 D+ 0.4% 272
Total B- 51% 87 D+ 4.4% 273

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 195 16.0 16
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 210 0.19 266
Consistency 0.14 308 0.12 120
Improvement -0.3 201 +1.9 82

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 318 311 296
Results Rating Rank 335 320 270
Conference Record 9 - 7 9 - 7 9 - 7
Conference Finish 4 4 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 12% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four6% 12% 0%
First Round3% 5% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 60 - 10
Quad 412 - 812 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 7 @Connecticut L 47 - 110 1% -42  0% 0 - 1 F -39 F -20 F D+ F F -16 F F D
 Mon, Nov 10 326 New Haven L 67 - 73 67% +1  54% 0 - 2 F -20 F -10 F A+ D+ F+ -9 F F B
 Thu, Nov 13 190 @Columbia L 72 - 86 17% -1  57% 0 - 3 D- -13 C- -2 B- F+ F F -11 D- D- B+
 Sun, Nov 16 69 @Wake Forest L 75 - 109 4% -15  1% 0 - 4 F -22 C- -2 C+ D- C F -18 D- F F
 Wed, Nov 19 110 @Bradley L 77 - 87 8% +0  46% 0 - 5 C- -4 B +7 B- D+ C- F -11 F+ F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 230 @St. Peter's L 66 - 68 21% -2  22% 0 - 6 C- -3 F+ -9 A- D F B+ +6 A F D+
 Wed, Nov 26 330 @Stonehill W 75 - 64 46% +5  91% 1 - 6 C+ +3 C+ +3 C- C B- C+ +0 B+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 194 @Massachusetts L 60 - 80 17% -8  11% 1 - 7 F -19 F -21 F+ D F B +4 C A D+
 Sat, Dec 13 216 @Quinnipiac L 71 - 75 20% +1  58% 1 - 8 C- -4 D- -7 A F F B- +3 B- F+ D-
 Tue, Dec 16 289 Sacred Heart W 87 - 82 54% -0  46% 2 - 8 D+ -5 C +0 C C- B- D -6 F C+ C+
 Sun, Dec 21 255 @Boston University L 76 - 88 26% -9  0% 2 - 9 D- -14 C +1 B B- F F -16 F F D+
 Mon, Dec 29 29 @Iowa L 62 - 90 1% -19  0% 2 - 10 D -10 C- -1 B C D F -11 D- C F+
 Sat, Jan 3 320 Albany W 83 - 71 65% +10  88% 3 - 10 1 - 0 C -1 B- +4 D A+ C+ D+ -4 B- F F+
 Thu, Jan 8 353 @Bryant W 77 - 63 57% +6  86% 4 - 10 2 - 0 C+ +3 C+ +3 C+ A F+ C+ +1 C- C+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 357 @Binghamton W 73 - 68 65% +6  92% 5 - 10 3 - 0 D+ -8 F+ -8 D D F C+ +0 C- C+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 333 NJIT L 64 - 73 70% -10  2% 5 - 11 3 - 1 F -24 F -17 F D- D D- -7 C- A F
 Thu, Jan 22 235 Vermont L 68 - 77 42% -5  13% 5 - 12 3 - 2 F+ -16 F+ -8 F A- F D- -8 D- A F
 Sat, Jan 24 193 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 56 - 79 17% -12  0% 5 - 13 3 - 3 F -22 F -15 F F+ C- D- -8 D+ D+ D
 Thu, Jan 29 352 @New Hampshire L 61 - 66 56% -3  12% 5 - 14 3 - 4 F+ -16 F -16 F C- D+ C+ +1 B- C F
 Sat, Jan 31 346 Maine W 91 - 77 74% +11  88% 6 - 14 4 - 4 C- -2 A- +11 A A+ F F -13 F A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 333 @NJIT L 56 - 81 48% -19  3% 6 - 15 4 - 5 F -34 F -20 F D- F F -14 F F F
 Sat, Feb 7 320 @Albany W 89 - 79 42% +5  74% 7 - 15 5 - 5 C+ +3 A- +10 B+ A+ D- D- -7 C F F
 Thu, Feb 12 353 Bryant W 88 - 69 77% +12  99% 8 - 15 6 - 5 C+ +2 A- +11 A- A+ C- D- -8 C F D+
 Thu, Feb 19 352 New Hampshire W 78 - 56 77% +13  94% 9 - 15 7 - 5 B- +5 D+ -4 C C- B- A +9 A+ C- F
 Sat, Feb 21 357 Binghamton W 92 - 79 82% +6  83% 10 - 15 8 - 5 D+ -6 A +14 A A+ A- F -19 F B- F
 Thu, Feb 26 235 @Vermont L 64 - 66 22% +1  47% 10 - 16 8 - 6 C- -3 D- -7 D- D C- B +4 A F D+
 Sat, Feb 28 193 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 60 - 84 35% -11  1% 10 - 17 8 - 7 F -29 F -13 F B- A F -17 F D F
 Tue, Mar 3 346 @Maine W 67 - 56 53% +8  89% 11 - 17 9 - 7 C +1 D+ -4 F B A B+ +6 B+ F+ D
 Sat, Mar 7 320 Albany W 77 - 73 65%
Totals 12 - 17 9 - 7 -9 D+ -5 F D+ C+ D -4 D F D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D B- D D+ 44% 47% 34% C+ D+ C+ C+ C+ D C F D+ D C- D+ D+ D+ 47% 19% 34% D D+ C- D- D F+ B- C B-
1.02 53% 42% 31% -3 0 0.97 31% 1.0 .33 19% .31 64% .20 1.15 59% 41% 36% +2 +1 1.07 31% 1.2 .36 13% .27 72% .22
Nov
7		 Connecticut F F F C- F 43% 26% 31% C F D C- D+ F A+ C A+ F F F D- F 61% 7% 32% F F F B- F D D+ F+ D-
0.63 22% 0% 31% -27 0 0.48 21% 0.9 .18 28% .59 72% .43 1.47 74% 75% 39% +15 +3 1.39 52% 1.1 .55 13% .34 77% .26
Nov
10		 New Haven F F B- F F 35% 15% 50% C F B+ A+ A+ D+ A+ C+ A+ F+ C D- F F 45% 24% 31% C- F F F+ F B C- B+ C
0.98 29% 43% 25% -16 +1 0.71 33% 1.5 .51 18% .48 78% .37 1.07 59% 42% 40% +4 0 1.10 30% 1.1 .33 20% .28 67% .18
Nov
13		 Columbia C- D+ F A+ B- 55% 22% 24% B- B- C F F+ F D- F F F B+ F F D 57% 14% 29% F+ D- F A+ D- B+ F B- F
1.04 53% 25% 54% +2 +1 1.07 29% 0.6 .17 20% .25 64% .16 1.24 50% 57% 50% +5 +2 1.16 61% 0.7 .42 24% .50 69% .34
Nov
16		 Wake Forest C- C+ A+ D- C+ 45% 15% 40% B C+ D+ D- D- C C C- C- F D+ F D- D- 41% 14% 45% D D- C F F F D F+ D-
0.99 58% 50% 29% -1 +1 1.02 25% 0.9 .22 20% .30 72% .21 1.43 63% 63% 38% +8 +1 1.21 32% 2.0 .65 9% .35 83% .29
Nov
19		 Bradley B A+ A- C- A- 21% 47% 32% F B- C+ F D+ C- A+ A+ A+ F F A+ F F 30% 36% 34% A+ F+ F F F C+ F C+ F
1.14 80% 45% 33% +8 -5 1.09 31% 0.8 .24 19% .48 85% .40 1.29 79% 18% 56% +10 -3 1.17 39% 1.3 .48 15% .45 73% .33
Nov
22		 St. Peter's F+ A+ B+ F A- 58% 18% 24% B A- B F D F A+ F B B+ A+ D A+ A+ 35% 13% 53% D- A A- F F D+ A+ C A+
0.93 73% 43% 22% +5 +2 1.16 41% 0.8 .31 34% .61 55% .34 0.95 37% 43% 24% -15 +1 0.75 29% 1.6 .45 17% .20 75% .15
Nov
26		 Stonehill C+ C+ F+ F+ D+ 42% 13% 45% B C- B- D+ C B- A+ F C C+ A+ A B- B+ 34% 20% 46% B- B+ D C+ C- F A F B
1.09 59% 29% 29% -4 +1 0.96 32% 1.0 .32 10% .41 48% .19 0.93 37% 27% 31% -12 0 0.79 31% 0.9 .27 13% .15 78% .12
Dec
6		 Massachusetts F F A+ F F 57% 20% 24% B F+ D C- D F A F F+ B C+ F+ B C 50% 28% 22% C C D+ A+ A D+ B+ D B
0.78 46% 67% 18% -7 +1 0.91 24% 1.0 .24 26% .48 48% .23 1.05 57% 47% 31% +1 0 1.03 34% 0.8 .26 17% .27 71% .19
Dec
13		 Quinnipiac D- D- C+ A+ A 50% 15% 35% B A F F F F D- F F B- D- A- A+ B 43% 29% 27% C+ B- D+ F F+ D- F B F
0.95 50% 38% 56% +7 +1 1.19 22% 0.5 .11 25% .23 54% .13 1.00 64% 27% 21% -6 -1 0.88 34% 1.2 .42 13% .45 66% .29
Dec
16		 Sacred Heart C F A+ A+ C 46% 11% 44% B C B- F C- B- C- F D- D C- F F F 22% 24% 55% A F B+ D- C+ C+ A B+ A
1.19 46% 67% 44% +4 +2 1.14 36% 0.9 .31 12% .25 56% .14 1.12 58% 54% 43% +11 -2 1.22 22% 1.1 .25 19% .19 73% .13
Dec
21		 Boston University C C+ A+ B- B- 47% 19% 34% B- B C- A B- F A+ F C F F F F F 47% 20% 33% C- F D F F D+ F B- F+
1.16 59% 67% 38% +8 +1 1.19 30% 1.3 .37 17% .39 52% .20 1.35 76% 67% 47% +20 +1 1.44 30% 1.8 .55 17% .37 70% .26
Dec
29		 Iowa C- B F A- B- 50% 20% 30% B B B F+ C D B F D- F F+ F B- D 60% 15% 25% F+ D- C C+ C F+ F F F
0.95 64% 22% 38% +1 +1 1.07 30% 0.8 .23 24% .36 50% .18 1.37 72% 57% 33% +11 +2 1.29 33% 1.0 .33 11% .41 92% .38
Jan
3		 Albany B- C- C- D- D 53% 22% 25% C+ D A+ B A+ C+ C- D D+ D+ B- A+ B+ B+ 54% 15% 31% F B- C F F F+ C A- C+
1.24 56% 36% 31% -3 +1 0.98 50% 1.3 .64 13% .29 71% .21 1.06 55% 25% 29% -6 +2 0.94 31% 1.3 .40 16% .23 62% .14
Jan
8		 Bryant C+ A- C D+ B- 50% 26% 24% D C+ C+ A+ A F+ C+ D+ C C+ B D C D+ 31% 20% 49% A- C- B- C- C+ F A+ A+ A+
1.19 68% 38% 33% +5 0 1.12 36% 1.3 .46 17% .32 71% .22 0.97 50% 40% 32% -4 0 0.94 24% 1.0 .24 14% .16 67% .11
Jan
10		 Binghamton F+ F B+ A+ D 40% 24% 36% D- D F A+ D F A+ D A+ C+ C A+ D+ C+ 57% 16% 27% F C- C A- C+ D+ C+ A- B
1.06 44% 45% 44% +2 0 1.04 19% 1.5 .28 16% .52 67% .34 0.98 55% 25% 36% -3 +2 1.00 19% 0.7 .13 19% .34 68% .23
Jan
15		 NJIT F F D+ F F 47% 24% 29% C- F D D- D- D A C+ A D- A- F B+ C+ 44% 17% 39% F C- B A+ A F F+ F F
0.91 46% 33% 27% -10 0 0.82 30% 0.9 .28 17% .43 72% .31 1.04 46% 56% 29% -6 +1 0.93 22% 0.6 .12 10% .38 79% .30
Jan
22		 Vermont F+ F+ F+ C+ D- 23% 35% 42% F F B- A A- F D A- C- D- C+ F D- D- 46% 18% 37% D D- C A+ A F A+ F A+
1.01 50% 28% 36% -4 -3 0.88 31% 1.3 .38 21% .28 80% .22 1.14 58% 60% 38% +6 +1 1.16 24% 0.5 .12 10% .13 88% .12
Jan
24		 Maryland Baltimore Co. F F A+ F F 40% 19% 42% C F D+ F F+ C- F D F+ D- D+ C+ C C- 50% 21% 29% F+ D+ C F+ D+ D F+ F F
0.84 43% 70% 18% -10 0 0.83 26% 0.7 .18 14% .16 67% .10 1.19 62% 36% 33% +1 +1 1.06 22% 1.2 .26 14% .35 95% .33
Jan
29		 New Hampshire F F A- F F 47% 31% 22% D F D B- C- D+ F F F C+ C A+ A B 51% 13% 36% D- B- A- F C F D+ D D+
0.88 46% 47% 17% -9 -1 0.84 26% 1.1 .29 16% .22 62% .14 0.95 56% 0% 26% -10 +2 0.85 20% 1.1 .22 14% .29 71% .20
Jan
31		 Maine A- C A+ A- B+ 66% 8% 26% A+ A A+ B+ A+ F D+ A+ B+ F F A+ B F 61% 9% 30% F F A+ A+ A+ F B- F C-
1.28 61% 75% 38% +6 +4 1.22 63% 1.2 .74 25% .28 93% .26 1.08 68% 20% 29% +2 +3 1.13 3% 0.0 .00 10% .30 74% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 NJIT F F C F F 42% 29% 29% D- F B- F D- F A+ F A F F A+ B F+ 41% 16% 43% F F D- F F F A+ A+ A+
0.82 30% 36% 14% -21 -1 0.58 37% 0.8 .28 21% .52 61% .31 1.19 78% 11% 29% +1 +1 1.05 31% 1.2 .36 7% .21 62% .13
Feb
7		 Albany A- A- D- A+ A- 46% 28% 26% D B+ B- A+ A+ D- A+ D A+ D- B F B- C+ 49% 20% 31% D C A- F F F F A- F
1.28 67% 31% 50% +8 0 1.17 38% 1.6 .62 17% .54 71% .38 1.14 52% 50% 31% -2 +1 1.00 25% 1.6 .41 10% .42 62% .26
Feb
12		 Bryant A- D+ A+ A+ A- 50% 17% 33% C A- A A+ A+ C- B+ F C+ D- B+ A+ D+ C 37% 12% 51% C- C F F F D+ D+ A+ C+
1.35 54% 75% 44% +9 +1 1.23 45% 1.3 .58 14% .36 65% .23 1.06 47% 17% 35% -6 +1 0.92 36% 1.4 .52 20% .29 67% .19
Feb
19		 New Hampshire D+ C C F+ D+ 59% 9% 31% A+ C F+ A C- B- D+ F F A A+ C+ A+ A+ 48% 10% 42% F+ A+ C C- C- F A+ F A+
1.11 59% 40% 29% -1 +3 1.06 23% 1.3 .29 13% .29 61% .18 0.79 31% 33% 24% -20 +2 0.67 25% 0.9 .23 14% .08 100% .08
Feb
21		 Binghamton A B- A A+ A 51% 17% 32% C+ A C+ A+ A+ A- A+ D A+ F F+ F F F 55% 25% 21% D- F A- F B- F A+ A+ A+
1.42 63% 50% 53% +14 +1 1.32 34% 1.5 .52 8% .50 67% .33 1.22 66% 62% 55% +16 +1 1.36 13% 1.0 .13 15% .20 45% .09
Feb
26		 Vermont D- C B- F F+ 45% 27% 29% C+ D- A F D C- B F D B A- A+ B+ A+ 44% 8% 48% F A F F F D+ C D+ C-
0.98 59% 38% 21% -5 0 0.92 36% 0.6 .21 14% .36 55% .20 1.01 50% 0% 29% -10 +2 0.86 32% 1.3 .39 14% .29 75% .21
Feb
28		 Maryland Baltimore Co. F F F F F 48% 14% 38% B F C- A B- A D- F+ D- F F F A+ F 49% 34% 17% B- F B- F D F C+ A- B
0.92 44% 13% 24% -16 +2 0.73 27% 1.3 .34 9% .19 64% .12 1.28 69% 67% 22% +12 -1 1.25 20% 1.4 .28 6% .26 69% .18
Mar
3		 Maine D+ C- A+ F F 45% 18% 37% C+ F C A B A B- F D+ B+ A+ D A- A- 49% 16% 35% F+ B+ C F F+ D F A+ C-
1.02 59% 56% 6% -12 +1 0.80 36% 1.3 .45 14% .34 58% .19 0.85 43% 43% 27% -11 +1 0.84 18% 1.5 .27 18% .45 50% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 100.0 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 100.0% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 6.2 93.8
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 16.0 93.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.2% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 37.6%
Lose Out 47.3%