Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +0.5 150
Expected Predictive Rating +0.2 158
Pace 67.1 228
Improvement -0.9 224

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #126 C B- C+ C+ C
Defense C- #207 C- C C+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 70 59% 162 +2.7 90
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 154 39% 139 +0.7 135
Three Pointers 35% 299 33% 224 -3.4 298
1st FG Attempt 1.02 171 +0.0 173
Second Chance 31.6% 150 1.12 60 0.36 90
Turnovers 16.6% 157
Freethrows 0.32 145 73% 166 0.23 135
Total Offense +1.5 126

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 41 58% 186 -3.4 294
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 112 43% 323 -1.7 312
Three Pointers 34% 348 33% 123 +4.3 29
1st FG Attempt 1.03 208 -0.8 207
Second Chance 31.2% 210 1.03 186 0.32 209
Turnovers 17.4% 150
Freethrows 0.31 193 71% 126 0.22 182
Total Defense -1.0 207

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.2 175 +0.2 200
Shot Type Accuracy -0.1 176 +0.5 206
Possession Length 18.4 293 16.9 124
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 299 0.18 201
Improvement +2.3 #68 -3.2 #326

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27% 28% 22%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 77% 82% 55%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round27% 28% 22%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Home) - 81.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 54 - 8
Quad 415 - 320 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 73 @California L 67 - 77 17% -6  7% 0 - 1 C +1 D+ -3 F+ B+ A B- +4 B- A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 165 Toledo L 71 - 81 65% -4  36% 0 - 2 D- -13 D -5 B B- F D- -9 D F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 233 Radford W 92 - 59 67% +13  92% 1 - 2 A+ +29 A- +10 A- B B- A+ +17 B+ A+ B+
 Sun, Nov 16 147 Kent St. L 72 - 76 OT 49% +2  65% 1 - 3 C- -3 D- -8 D+ C+ C+ B +5 A- D- A
 Tue, Nov 25 333 @Stetson W 79 - 62 79% +15  87% 2 - 3 B +9 B +6 A- B F B +5 C+ F+ B-
 Fri, Nov 28 75 @Butler L 69 - 94 17% -5  43% 2 - 4 F+ -14 D- -8 D+ C- C D+ -5 F+ F+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 205 @Youngstown St. L 68 - 69 51% -0  47% 2 - 5 0 - 1 C -1 D- -6 C D+ C B +5 B F A
 Sun, Dec 7 244 Green Bay W 86 - 58 78% +12  95% 3 - 5 1 - 1 A +20 B +6 D+ A+ B- A+ +15 A D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 164 @Marshall L 74 - 76 42% +1  45% 3 - 6 C +1 B +7 B F+ A+ D -6 C F+ C-
 Tue, Dec 16 87 Miami (OH) L 76 - 83 39% -8  2% 3 - 7 C- -4 D+ -3 D- C- A- C -1 F A+ C-
 Mon, Dec 22 231 Eastern Michigan W 70 - 64 76% +1  47% 4 - 7 C -1 D -5 C F+ D- B +4 B- A- D+
 Mon, Dec 29 143 Oakland W 88 - 73 59% +14  97% 5 - 7 2 - 1 B+ +13 B +7 A+ C D- B +6 A- A- A
 Thu, Jan 1 268 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 70 82% +7  86% 6 - 7 3 - 1 C- -3 C +1 F B+ A- D+ -4 C B- F
 Sun, Jan 4 332 @IU Indianapolis W 81 - 77 79% +5  82% 7 - 7 4 - 1 C- -4 B- +4 C- A+ F D- -7 D- C- C
 Fri, Jan 9 271 @Detroit Mercy W 84 - 82 64% +6  73% 8 - 7 5 - 1 C -1 B- +5 B D D- D -6 C- F D+
 Sun, Jan 11 143 @Oakland W 94 - 84 36% +17  99% 9 - 7 6 - 1 B+ +14 A +13 A+ D F C+ +1 C A- F
 Thu, Jan 15 205 Youngstown St. W 93 - 83 73% +5  90% 10 - 7 7 - 1 C+ +4 A+ +21 C A+ A+ F -16 C F F+
 Wed, Jan 21 299 Cleveland St. L 79 - 85 86% +0  55% 10 - 8 7 - 2 F+ -17 D -5 F B A F -12 D C+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 201 Northern Kentucky W 88 - 80 72% +9  88% 11 - 8 8 - 2 C+ +2 A- +9 B- C- A+ D -7 F C B
 Fri, Jan 30 268 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 69 64% +5  79% 12 - 8 9 - 2 C+ +4 D -5 D- B+ D- A- +8 C+ B D+
 Sun, Feb 1 244 @Green Bay W 83 - 75 58% +9  100% 13 - 8 10 - 2 B- +6 A +12 C C+ A+ D+ -5 C F C
 Wed, Feb 4 204 @Robert Morris L 66 - 72 51% -5  21% 13 - 9 10 - 3 D+ -6 F+ -9 F C- B- B- +3 D A D
 Sat, Feb 7 242 Purdue Fort Wayne W 73 - 68 78% +8  91% 14 - 9 11 - 3 C- -3 C+ +3 C- A- C- D+ -4 D- B B
 Thu, Feb 12 271 Detroit Mercy W 82 - 72 82%
 Sun, Feb 15 299 @Cleveland St. W 83 - 78 69%
 Thu, Feb 19 332 IU Indianapolis W 90 - 76 91%
 Sun, Feb 22 204 Robert Morris W 76 - 70 72%
 Wed, Feb 25 242 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 76 - 74 58%
 Sat, Feb 28 201 @Northern Kentucky W 77 - 76 50%
Totals 18 - 11 15 - 5 +1 C+ +2 C B- C+ C- -1 C- C C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C C+ C- C 43% 22% 35% C C C+ B B- C+ C+ C C+ C- C D- C+ C 44% 22% 34% C- C- C- C C C+ C C+ C
1.11 59% 39% 33% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.1 .36 17% .32 73% .23 1.10 58% 43% 33% +1 0 1.03 31% 1.0 .32 17% .31 71% .23
Nov
6		 California D+ F A+ F F+ 31% 17% 52% C- F+ D+ A+ B+ A C F D+ B- F+ F A+ B- 36% 23% 41% C- B- C- A+ A+ C F F+ F
0.96 35% 67% 21% -12 0 0.78 25% 1.4 .34 11% .29 56% .16 1.11 69% 60% 22% +2 0 1.05 29% 0.5 .15 14% .52 84% .44
Nov
11		 Toledo D A+ D+ B A- 36% 26% 38% F+ B D- A+ B- F A- A+ A+ D- F B F D- 44% 36% 20% B D F F+ F A+ F B- F+
1.07 80% 36% 38% +9 -1 1.19 29% 1.3 .38 29% .32 87% .27 1.22 70% 38% 44% +8 -1 1.16 46% 1.2 .54 23% .37 74% .27
Nov
15		 Radford A- F A+ A+ A 40% 24% 36% D A- C A- B B- A C- A A+ B A A- A 49% 14% 37% D- B+ A- A+ A+ B+ C- A- C+
1.27 40% 50% 61% +10 0 1.22 33% 1.3 .42 17% .45 70% .31 0.81 50% 29% 28% -9 +2 0.88 23% 0.2 .05 21% .37 67% .24
Nov
16		 Kent St. D- A B- F C- 37% 28% 35% D- D+ D- A+ C+ C+ C- F D B C+ C- A+ A 46% 15% 38% D- A- F C+ D- A F F+ F
0.98 70% 40% 21% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.3 .32 15% .30 63% .19 1.03 54% 38% 20% -10 +1 0.85 43% 1.1 .45 24% .47 81% .38
Nov
25		 Stetson B F A A+ A 39% 16% 45% C+ A- C+ B+ B F F F F B B+ F+ B+ B- 40% 18% 42% D- C+ D F F+ B- A+ A+ A+
1.22 42% 50% 59% +13 +1 1.29 34% 1.3 .45 20% .12 50% .06 0.96 50% 44% 29% -5 0 0.92 29% 1.2 .35 20% .17 56% .10
Nov
28		 Butler D- D C D- D 54% 18% 28% A- D+ D+ B- C- C F D F D+ F+ F A- F+ 52% 17% 31% C- F+ C+ F F+ C D A+ B-
0.92 52% 36% 29% -6 +1 0.93 25% 1.0 .25 17% .05 67% .03 1.25 68% 67% 29% +8 +1 1.20 35% 1.5 .52 15% .40 58% .23
Dec
3		 Youngstown St. D- C+ A+ F C- 56% 19% 26% A- C F A+ D+ C A+ F C B C+ B A A- 52% 14% 34% D- B F F F A F A+ D-
0.99 63% 63% 18% +1 +2 1.07 17% 1.6 .27 19% .50 54% .27 1.00 57% 33% 27% -5 +2 0.95 44% 1.2 .53 25% .39 60% .23
Dec
7		 Green Bay B A+ F F D- 39% 8% 53% A- D+ C+ A+ A+ B- A A A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 58% 16% 27% F+ A C+ F D+ A+ C- B- C
1.27 80% 25% 22% -2 +2 1.02 31% 1.9 .59 12% .42 80% .33 0.86 54% 14% 25% -10 +2 0.87 23% 1.3 .30 27% .36 72% .26
Dec
13		 Marshall B B F+ A+ B+ 24% 29% 47% D- B A- F F+ A+ F D F D F F B+ C- 25% 27% 48% B- C F+ D+ F+ C- D- F F+
1.17 64% 29% 43% +5 -2 1.08 41% 0.5 .20 8% .10 67% .07 1.20 75% 46% 30% +4 -2 1.06 39% 1.2 .45 17% .31 81% .25
Dec
16		 Miami (OH) D+ A- D- F F+ 46% 21% 32% B- D- C+ D C- A- A B A+ C F+ A+ F F 48% 15% 38% D- F A+ A+ A+ C- F A+ D+
1.05 69% 33% 17% -4 0 0.95 31% 0.8 .23 14% .38 79% .30 1.15 74% 14% 56% +16 +1 1.38 10% 0.0 .00 15% .46 61% .28
Dec
22		 Eastern Michigan D B+ C- F C 49% 18% 33% B C B- F F+ D- A+ F A+ B B+ A+ D- A- 57% 19% 25% F B- B+ A A- D+ D+ B C
1.03 64% 38% 27% -1 +1 1.02 32% 0.5 .18 19% .58 63% .36 0.94 50% 20% 38% -6 +2 0.92 23% 0.8 .17 16% .28 69% .19
Dec
29		 Oakland B C C- A+ A+ 48% 21% 31% B A+ C- B- C D- A+ B+ A+ B A F+ A- A- 41% 22% 37% B A- F A+ A- A F C+ F
1.24 61% 40% 60% +14 +1 1.31 32% 1.0 .32 18% .38 77% .29 1.03 45% 45% 28% -7 0 0.88 38% 0.7 .25 18% .52 73% .38
Jan
1		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee C F C C- F 47% 28% 26% D F B+ C B+ A- A+ A+ A+ D+ B+ C- F+ D+ 35% 41% 24% A+ C B C- B- F A B A-
1.17 45% 38% 33% -6 0 0.89 37% 1.2 .43 12% .44 84% .37 1.08 47% 41% 38% -1 -3 0.94 28% 1.1 .31 9% .19 64% .12
Jan
4		 IU Indianapolis B- F+ A+ A D 62% 5% 32% A C- C+ A+ A+ F A+ B A+ D- A+ F F F+ 35% 33% 33% B+ D- F A- C- C C- A- C
1.21 52% 50% 42% +1 +4 1.11 38% 2.2 .83 25% .50 80% .40 1.15 42% 56% 44% +5 -2 1.09 35% 0.9 .32 16% .20 64% .12
Jan
9		 Detroit Mercy B- C+ D- A+ B 47% 20% 33% C B F+ B- D D- A+ A+ A+ D F+ D+ A+ C- 34% 42% 25% B- C- F F F D+ F C+ F
1.19 61% 30% 44% +5 +1 1.12 25% 1.1 .29 17% .48 82% .39 1.16 67% 41% 23% 0 -3 0.96 40% 1.2 .49 14% .51 74% .38
Jan
11		 Oakland A B+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 32% 32% D- A+ A- F D F B- A+ A+ C+ C D- C D+ 40% 31% 29% A C A+ F+ A- F F B- F
1.28 68% 59% 53% +20 -2 1.38 42% 0.6 .25 25% .27 100% .27 1.15 57% 44% 33% +1 -1 1.02 19% 1.3 .24 8% .48 72% .34
Jan
15		 Youngstown St. A+ A F A+ B- 46% 42% 12% F C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A F D+ C+ 39% 10% 51% D+ C F+ F F F+ C+ F C-
1.42 74% 24% 50% +4 -2 1.06 52% 1.3 .69 11% .48 86% .41 1.27 47% 60% 36% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.6 .58 15% .25 79% .20
Jan
21		 Cleveland St. D F+ A+ F F 45% 20% 36% C+ F D- A+ B A C F D F C+ B- F D 44% 12% 44% F+ D A+ F C+ F D+ F F
1.14 52% 82% 15% -4 +1 0.95 30% 1.5 .45 10% .29 67% .19 1.23 55% 33% 45% +6 +2 1.16 15% 1.8 .26 13% .37 91% .33
Jan
24		 Northern Kentucky A- B+ D- B B- 51% 20% 29% B- B- B+ F C- A+ A+ A+ A+ D F F A+ F 44% 20% 36% C+ F B- D+ C B C B C+
1.25 65% 33% 38% +5 +1 1.13 40% 0.9 .37 14% .60 81% .48 1.14 77% 70% 22% +9 0 1.20 28% 1.1 .31 20% .28 69% .20
Jan
30		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee D A F F F+ 47% 8% 45% B+ D- C A+ B+ D- B+ F D+ A- C- F A+ B 43% 14% 43% F C+ C A B D+ A- A+ A+
1.04 72% 0% 21% -5 +2 0.96 30% 1.5 .43 19% .39 57% .22 0.95 58% 50% 21% -7 +1 0.91 32% 0.9 .27 14% .19 50% .10
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Green Bay A A+ F C- C 33% 20% 47% C C B- C- C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A- C- F C 48% 23% 30% C+ C D- F+ F C F F F
1.31 80% 22% 33% +4 0 1.09 33% 1.1 .37 8% .48 89% .43 1.18 48% 40% 46% +1 0 1.05 30% 1.3 .37 16% .49 85% .41
Feb
4		 Robert Morris F+ F F F+ F 55% 12% 33% A- F B F C- B- C- F D B- D+ A+ F D- 41% 22% 37% C- D A+ F A D B- A+ B+
0.96 46% 17% 29% -11 +2 0.84 35% 0.8 .27 15% .38 68% .26 1.05 59% 25% 45% +4 0 1.09 18% 1.5 .27 16% .21 58% .12
Feb
7		 Purdue Fort Wayne C+ A C+ F D+ 44% 19% 37% C C- A+ D+ A- C- A+ F A+ D+ C- F C+ F+ 32% 23% 45% A- D- D+ A+ B B C- D- D+
1.17 74% 38% 25% +2 +1 1.07 48% 1.0 .48 21% .49 58% .28 1.09 60% 64% 33% +6 -1 1.13 23% 0.7 .17 18% .25 77% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 8.1 25.4 30.5 12.4 77.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.6 10.5 6.2 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 1.0 5.8 18.6 31.6 30.5 12.4 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 12.4    12.4
16-4 100.0% 30.5    24.5 6.0
15-5 80.5% 25.4    13.7 11.7
14-6 43.7% 8.1    3.0 5.0 0.2
13-7 16.4% 1.0    0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1
12-8 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 77.4% 77.4 53.7 23.1 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 12.4% 33.8% 33.8% 13.0 0.0 0.8 2.5 1.0 0.0 8.2
16-4 30.5% 29.5% 29.5% 13.8 0.1 2.8 5.1 1.0 21.5
15-5 31.6% 25.4% 25.4% 14.2 0.0 1.0 4.5 2.5 0.1 23.5
14-6 18.6% 21.9% 21.9% 14.5 0.3 1.7 1.9 0.2 14.5
13-7 5.8% 18.6% 18.6% 14.6 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.0 4.7
12-8 1.0% 17.6% 17.6% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.8
11-9 0.1% 0.0 0.1
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 26.6% 26.6% 0.0% 13.9 73.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.2% 100.0% 13.0 0.2 18.5 58.2 22.6 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.7%