Preseason Rankings
Akron
Mid-American
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#114
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.2#281
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#124
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#118
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.4% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.4% 28.6% 18.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.3% 2.3% 0.4%
Average Seed 12.4 11.9 13.0
.500 or above 84.8% 92.5% 77.8%
.500 or above in Conference 89.5% 93.3% 86.0%
Conference Champion 28.9% 34.9% 23.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 0.8%
First Four1.0% 1.1% 0.8%
First Round22.9% 28.1% 18.3%
Second Round5.4% 7.5% 3.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 2.3% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Away) - 47.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 46 - 7
Quad 410 - 217 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 151   @ South Dakota St. L 68-69 47%    
  Nov 10, 2023 152   Southern Miss W 72-67 70%    
  Nov 19, 2023 196   Florida International W 74-69 67%    
  Nov 28, 2023 91   @ UNLV L 69-74 33%    
  Dec 05, 2023 100   Bradley W 66-64 57%    
  Dec 09, 2023 183   @ Northern Kentucky W 63-62 54%    
  Dec 21, 2023 195   Gardner-Webb W 70-62 75%    
  Dec 30, 2023 78   St. Bonaventure L 65-68 39%    
  Jan 02, 2024 240   @ Northern Illinois W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 06, 2024 235   Bowling Green W 78-68 82%    
  Jan 09, 2024 234   @ Ball St. W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 13, 2024 216   Buffalo W 79-70 78%    
  Jan 16, 2024 319   Western Michigan W 76-61 90%    
  Jan 20, 2024 107   @ Kent St. L 67-70 38%    
  Jan 23, 2024 127   Ohio W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 27, 2024 260   @ Miami (OH) W 73-67 69%    
  Jan 30, 2024 315   @ Eastern Michigan W 77-68 78%    
  Feb 03, 2024 132   Toledo W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 06, 2024 323   Central Michigan W 76-60 90%    
  Feb 17, 2024 216   @ Buffalo W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 20, 2024 132   @ Toledo L 74-76 44%    
  Feb 24, 2024 107   Kent St. W 70-67 58%    
  Feb 27, 2024 127   @ Ohio L 70-72 44%    
  Mar 02, 2024 240   Northern Illinois W 76-65 81%    
  Mar 05, 2024 315   Eastern Michigan W 80-65 89%    
  Mar 08, 2024 319   @ Western Michigan W 73-64 78%    
Projected Record 17 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.2 8.0 7.5 4.5 1.7 28.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.3 6.8 3.1 0.6 0.0 20.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.9 4.3 1.1 0.1 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.4 4.7 3.0 0.6 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 3.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 2.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.8 4.5 6.3 8.6 10.5 12.4 13.1 13.2 11.2 8.0 4.5 1.7 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
17-1 100.0% 4.5    4.3 0.2
16-2 92.9% 7.5    6.2 1.2 0.0
15-3 71.4% 8.0    4.9 2.8 0.3
14-4 39.6% 5.2    2.1 2.4 0.7 0.0
13-5 13.9% 1.8    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.9% 28.9 19.6 7.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.7% 84.0% 67.9% 16.0% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 50.0%
17-1 4.5% 69.3% 60.4% 8.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 22.5%
16-2 8.0% 50.7% 47.6% 3.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.0 5.9%
15-3 11.2% 36.5% 36.0% 0.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 7.1 0.8%
14-4 13.2% 28.3% 28.2% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.5 0.2%
13-5 13.1% 21.3% 21.3% 13.4 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 10.3
12-6 12.4% 16.1% 16.1% 14.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 10.4
11-7 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 9.4
10-8 8.6% 6.9% 6.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 8.0
9-9 6.3% 5.3% 5.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.0
8-10 4.5% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.4
7-11 2.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 2.8
6-12 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-13 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 23.4% 22.4% 1.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 3.2 6.1 5.6 3.6 1.9 0.8 76.6 1.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 99.8% 4.2 7.4 8.4 14.5 29.4 20.8 14.1 1.9 1.7 1.7