Preseason Rankings
Nicholls St.
Southland
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#284
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.1#31
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#264
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#295
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.5% 24.8% 13.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 31.2% 61.2% 28.3%
.500 or above in Conference 71.2% 86.2% 69.8%
Conference Champion 17.5% 30.4% 16.2%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 1.4% 4.4%
First Four6.1% 6.0% 6.1%
First Round11.1% 21.7% 10.1%
Second Round0.3% 1.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulane (Away) - 8.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 31 - 9
Quad 411 - 712 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 99   @ Tulane L 76-90 9%    
  Nov 10, 2023 56   @ LSU L 64-83 4%    
  Nov 16, 2023 177   @ South Alabama L 68-77 19%    
  Nov 17, 2023 259   SIU Edwardsville L 76-77 45%    
  Nov 24, 2023 37   @ Mississippi St. L 58-79 3%    
  Nov 28, 2023 14   @ Baylor L 65-89 2%    
  Dec 02, 2023 120   @ Louisiana Tech L 68-80 14%    
  Dec 19, 2023 29   @ Maryland L 60-82 3%    
  Dec 22, 2023 158   @ Towson L 67-77 19%    
  Jan 06, 2024 360   @ Houston Christian W 84-79 67%    
  Jan 08, 2024 268   SE Louisiana W 80-78 58%    
  Jan 13, 2024 341   Lamar W 77-69 74%    
  Jan 15, 2024 299   New Orleans W 84-80 63%    
  Jan 20, 2024 283   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 76-79 40%    
  Jan 22, 2024 348   @ Incarnate Word W 76-73 59%    
  Jan 27, 2024 291   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 72-75 41%    
  Feb 03, 2024 360   Houston Christian W 87-76 82%    
  Feb 05, 2024 337   Northwestern St. W 78-71 72%    
  Feb 10, 2024 341   @ Lamar W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 12, 2024 283   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 79-76 60%    
  Feb 17, 2024 271   McNeese St. W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 19, 2024 299   @ New Orleans L 81-83 43%    
  Feb 24, 2024 291   Texas A&M - Commerce W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 26, 2024 348   Incarnate Word W 79-70 76%    
  Mar 02, 2024 271   @ McNeese St. L 74-78 38%    
  Mar 04, 2024 337   @ Northwestern St. W 75-74 54%    
  Mar 06, 2024 268   @ SE Louisiana L 77-81 37%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 4.3 4.4 3.3 1.5 0.4 17.5 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 4.6 5.0 3.2 0.9 0.1 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 5.1 4.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 13.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.0 3.9 1.0 0.1 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.6 3.3 0.7 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.1 2.8 0.6 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.6 5.2 7.2 8.8 10.0 11.0 11.6 10.9 9.4 7.7 5.3 3.4 1.5 0.4 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
16-2 97.1% 3.3    2.9 0.3 0.0
15-3 82.8% 4.4    3.3 1.1 0.1
14-4 55.9% 4.3    2.4 1.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 28.4% 2.7    0.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.3% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.5% 17.5 11.5 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 83.6% 82.7% 0.9% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 5.2%
17-1 1.5% 69.9% 69.9% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.5
16-2 3.4% 57.7% 57.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.4 1.4
15-3 5.3% 44.9% 44.9% 15.3 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.1 2.9
14-4 7.7% 34.2% 34.2% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 5.1
13-5 9.4% 21.4% 21.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 7.4
12-6 10.9% 16.5% 16.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.7 9.1
11-7 11.6% 9.2% 9.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1 10.5
10-8 11.0% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.6 10.4
9-9 10.0% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.3 9.6
8-10 8.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 8.6
7-11 7.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.2
6-12 5.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.2
5-13 3.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.6
4-14 2.1% 2.1
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.6 8.9 85.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%