Preseason Rankings
Providence
Big East
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#46
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.3#199
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#35
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#64
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.4% 1.4% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 3.7% 3.8% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 10.2% 10.5% 1.4%
Top 6 Seed 18.9% 19.3% 3.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.9% 45.6% 18.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 41.1% 41.9% 15.6%
Average Seed 7.0 7.0 8.8
.500 or above 77.5% 78.4% 44.5%
.500 or above in Conference 53.2% 53.9% 28.7%
Conference Champion 5.2% 5.3% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 5.8% 16.6%
First Four4.8% 4.8% 3.8%
First Round42.5% 43.2% 16.5%
Second Round26.0% 26.5% 8.0%
Sweet Sixteen11.6% 11.9% 2.3%
Elite Eight5.2% 5.3% 0.8%
Final Four2.2% 2.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Columbia (Home) - 97.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 8
Quad 24 - 37 - 11
Quad 34 - 111 - 12
Quad 46 - 018 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 303   Columbia W 85-64 97%    
  Nov 11, 2023 217   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 85-69 93%    
  Nov 14, 2023 28   Wisconsin W 66-65 52%    
  Nov 17, 2023 32   Kansas St. L 73-75 44%    
  Nov 24, 2023 274   Lehigh W 82-63 96%    
  Nov 28, 2023 298   Wagner W 73-53 96%    
  Dec 02, 2023 190   Rhode Island W 76-62 89%    
  Dec 05, 2023 53   @ Oklahoma L 67-69 42%    
  Dec 10, 2023 185   Brown W 79-65 88%    
  Dec 16, 2023 301   Sacred Heart W 85-64 96%    
  Dec 19, 2023 9   Marquette L 73-76 41%    
  Dec 23, 2023 88   Butler W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 03, 2024 66   Seton Hall W 71-66 66%    
  Jan 06, 2024 8   @ Creighton L 68-77 23%    
  Jan 10, 2024 44   @ St. John's L 78-81 39%    
  Jan 13, 2024 43   Xavier W 77-75 58%    
  Jan 17, 2024 109   @ DePaul W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 24, 2024 66   @ Seton Hall L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 27, 2024 106   Georgetown W 79-70 78%    
  Jan 31, 2024 6   @ Connecticut L 66-76 21%    
  Feb 04, 2024 20   @ Villanova L 65-71 31%    
  Feb 07, 2024 8   Creighton L 71-74 41%    
  Feb 10, 2024 88   @ Butler W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 13, 2024 44   St. John's W 81-78 59%    
  Feb 17, 2024 109   DePaul W 78-69 78%    
  Feb 21, 2024 43   @ Xavier L 74-78 39%    
  Feb 28, 2024 9   @ Marquette L 70-79 24%    
  Mar 02, 2024 20   Villanova L 68-69 50%    
  Mar 05, 2024 106   @ Georgetown W 76-73 60%    
  Mar 09, 2024 6   Connecticut L 69-73 39%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 5.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.2 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 7.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.3 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 3.1 4.5 2.5 0.6 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.8 4.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 12.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.2 4.5 1.8 0.2 0.0 12.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.2 4.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.0 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.1 2.2 0.6 0.1 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.1 3.2 4.8 6.6 8.3 9.9 10.6 10.7 10.5 9.3 7.5 5.9 4.0 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 95.8% 0.6    0.5 0.1
17-3 80.2% 1.2    0.8 0.4 0.0
16-4 55.6% 1.6    0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 24.7% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.2% 5.2 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 44.4% 55.6% 1.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 35.6% 64.4% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.6% 100.0% 32.5% 67.5% 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.5% 100.0% 24.6% 75.4% 2.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.8% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 3.0 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.0% 100.0% 14.9% 85.1% 4.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 5.9% 99.0% 11.4% 87.6% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.8%
13-7 7.5% 94.1% 10.0% 84.2% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.4 93.5%
12-8 9.3% 85.1% 8.4% 76.7% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.4 83.8%
11-9 10.5% 66.8% 6.7% 60.1% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.5 64.4%
10-10 10.7% 43.3% 4.7% 38.6% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.1 40.5%
9-11 10.6% 19.3% 4.5% 14.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.6 15.5%
8-12 9.9% 5.6% 2.9% 2.7% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.3 2.8%
7-13 8.3% 3.6% 3.2% 0.4% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.0 0.4%
6-14 6.6% 2.0% 2.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.5
5-15 4.8% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 4.8
4-16 3.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.2
3-17 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.1
2-18 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.8
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 44.9% 6.4% 38.5% 7.0 1.4 2.3 3.0 3.6 4.3 4.4 4.9 5.2 5.1 5.2 4.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 55.1 41.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 52.2 47.8