Preseason Rankings
Sam Houston St.
Conference USA
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#117
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.5#319
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#195
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#80
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.4% 19.4% 10.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.5% 2.6% 0.5%
Average Seed 12.2 11.8 13.0
.500 or above 59.9% 72.2% 46.2%
.500 or above in Conference 68.2% 75.1% 60.5%
Conference Champion 18.2% 23.1% 12.8%
Last Place in Conference 6.8% 4.6% 9.3%
First Four1.5% 1.7% 1.4%
First Round14.7% 18.6% 10.4%
Second Round3.4% 4.7% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.4% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pacific (Away) - 52.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 3
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 36 - 58 - 12
Quad 48 - 216 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 188   @ Pacific W 70-69 53%    
  Nov 09, 2023 164   Utah Valley W 70-65 69%    
  Nov 12, 2023 59   @ Oklahoma St. L 60-69 20%    
  Nov 17, 2023 60   @ Mississippi L 60-69 20%    
  Nov 20, 2023 218   @ Troy W 67-64 59%    
  Nov 22, 2023 253   Grambling St. W 67-59 76%    
  Nov 29, 2023 65   @ Arizona St. L 62-70 24%    
  Dec 03, 2023 341   Lamar W 73-56 94%    
  Dec 09, 2023 143   @ Missouri St. L 59-61 44%    
  Dec 12, 2023 287   Louisiana Monroe W 70-57 87%    
  Dec 15, 2023 193   Texas St. W 65-58 73%    
  Dec 20, 2023 93   @ Grand Canyon L 62-67 32%    
  Dec 28, 2023 41   @ Texas Tech L 60-71 18%    
  Jan 06, 2024 120   Louisiana Tech W 66-63 60%    
  Jan 10, 2024 172   Western Kentucky W 69-63 69%    
  Jan 13, 2024 137   @ Middle Tennessee L 64-66 43%    
  Jan 20, 2024 84   @ Liberty L 60-66 29%    
  Jan 25, 2024 167   New Mexico St. W 71-66 68%    
  Jan 27, 2024 155   UTEP W 66-61 66%    
  Feb 01, 2024 172   @ Western Kentucky L 65-66 50%    
  Feb 03, 2024 196   @ Florida International W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 08, 2024 221   @ Jacksonville St. W 65-62 59%    
  Feb 15, 2024 196   Florida International W 72-65 73%    
  Feb 17, 2024 84   Liberty L 62-63 49%    
  Feb 22, 2024 167   @ New Mexico St. L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 24, 2024 155   @ UTEP L 63-64 47%    
  Mar 02, 2024 137   Middle Tennessee W 67-63 63%    
  Mar 07, 2024 120   @ Louisiana Tech L 63-66 41%    
  Mar 09, 2024 221   Jacksonville St. W 68-59 77%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.5 4.9 3.9 1.8 0.5 18.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.0 6.0 4.0 1.5 0.2 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.5 5.7 2.6 0.4 0.0 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.4 5.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.1 5.1 1.3 0.1 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.2 1.2 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.9 3.4 1.0 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.2 0.6 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.9 9th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.1 3.9 6.0 8.0 10.2 11.6 11.9 12.1 10.9 9.0 6.4 4.2 1.8 0.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
15-1 100.0% 1.8    1.7 0.0
14-2 94.6% 3.9    3.5 0.5 0.0
13-3 76.4% 4.9    3.4 1.4 0.1
12-4 50.7% 4.5    2.2 1.9 0.4 0.0
11-5 19.6% 2.1    0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 18.2% 18.2 11.8 4.9 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.5% 90.0% 64.7% 25.3% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 71.8%
15-1 1.8% 67.1% 48.3% 18.8% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 36.4%
14-2 4.2% 51.0% 42.1% 8.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.0 15.4%
13-3 6.4% 37.1% 32.8% 4.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.0 6.4%
12-4 9.0% 28.7% 26.8% 1.9% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.4 2.6%
11-5 10.9% 19.5% 19.3% 0.3% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.8 0.3%
10-6 12.1% 13.9% 13.8% 0.1% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 10.4 0.1%
9-7 11.9% 9.6% 9.6% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 10.8
8-8 11.6% 6.6% 6.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 10.8
7-9 10.2% 4.7% 4.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.7
6-10 8.0% 3.2% 3.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.7
5-11 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 5.8
4-12 3.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 3.8
3-13 2.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.1
2-14 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
1-15 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 15.4% 14.1% 1.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 2.6 4.1 2.7 1.5 1.1 1.3 84.6 1.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.2 38.5 30.8 30.8