Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
92 Louisiana Tech 26.7%   12   1 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 9 12 - 6 +5.7      +3.6 83 +2.1 107 64.6 315 +16.5 15 0.0 1
104 Liberty 21.3%   2 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 8 11 - 7 +4.8      +2.1 118 +2.7 95 62.6 345 +13.9 25 0.0 1
118 Western Kentucky 13.7%   0 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 +3.1      +0.9 151 +2.2 105 85.6 2 -7.2 293 0.0 1
123 Sam Houston St. 12.7%   1 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 +2.9      +2.1 120 +0.9 144 74.2 66 +3.4 126 0.0 1
129 Middle Tennessee 11.1%   2 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 10 - 8 +2.1      -1.0 195 +3.2 85 66.9 258 +10.2 44 0.0 1
147 New Mexico St. 8.4%   1 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 9 +1.0      -0.1 171 +1.1 133 65.5 297 +8.9 51 0.0 1
176 Kennesaw St. 4.8%   0 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -0.8      +2.1 116 -2.9 262 82.7 6 -10.9 319 0.0 1
194 UTEP 3.7%   0 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 16 7 - 11 -1.9      -3.2 273 +1.3 126 73.0 85 -7.1 292 0.0 1
210 Jacksonville St. 2.7%   1 - 1 0 - 0 10 - 16 7 - 11 -2.7      -2.6 253 -0.1 170 66.0 278 -4.9 268 0.0 1
267 Florida International 1.0%   0 - 2 0 - 0 9 - 20 5 - 13 -5.4      -3.8 288 -1.6 227 80.8 9 -12.5 330 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Louisiana Tech 3.0 33.0 19.7 14.0 10.2 7.8 5.9 4.3 2.7 1.7 0.7
Liberty 3.4 26.2 19.2 14.9 11.8 9.2 7.0 5.1 3.5 2.1 0.9
Western Kentucky 4.1 16.1 15.3 14.8 13.4 11.7 9.7 7.8 5.6 3.8 1.9
Sam Houston St. 4.2 14.8 15.4 14.7 13.5 11.7 10.2 8.0 5.9 3.8 1.9
Middle Tennessee 4.6 12.3 13.2 13.6 12.9 12.1 11.0 9.3 7.5 5.3 2.8
New Mexico St. 5.1 9.1 10.7 11.6 12.0 11.8 11.8 10.9 9.7 7.6 4.9
Kennesaw St. 6.1 4.6 6.6 8.5 9.8 11.0 12.2 12.9 13.1 12.2 9.1
UTEP 6.5 3.6 5.0 7.0 8.4 9.9 11.6 13.3 14.2 14.4 12.7
Jacksonville St. 6.9 2.2 3.8 5.3 7.0 9.0 11.1 13.2 15.5 17.7 15.2
Florida International 8.1 0.6 1.4 2.3 3.5 5.2 7.6 10.7 15.3 21.9 31.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Louisiana Tech 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.6 5.6 7.3 9.2 11.0 12.1 12.7 11.8 10.2 6.9 3.7 1.3
Liberty 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.9 4.6 6.6 8.6 10.5 12.0 12.5 12.1 10.6 8.1 4.9 2.8 0.7
Western Kentucky 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.2 4.7 7.0 8.9 11.0 12.5 12.3 11.3 9.5 7.5 4.8 2.6 1.3 0.3
Sam Houston St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.8 3.1 5.0 7.3 9.4 11.3 12.3 12.3 11.5 9.5 7.1 4.5 2.4 1.0 0.2
Middle Tennessee 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.5 4.3 6.5 8.6 9.9 11.8 12.1 11.4 10.4 8.0 5.8 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.1
New Mexico St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.0 5.9 8.4 9.6 11.2 11.5 11.4 10.0 8.6 6.5 4.2 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.1
Kennesaw St. 8 - 10 0.3 1.0 2.6 4.5 6.8 9.2 10.8 11.4 11.6 10.9 9.6 7.5 5.8 3.7 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
UTEP 7 - 11 0.4 1.7 3.7 6.1 8.6 10.3 11.6 11.4 11.5 9.9 8.5 6.2 4.4 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville St. 7 - 11 0.7 2.1 4.9 7.3 10.2 11.8 12.5 12.0 10.8 9.1 6.8 4.9 3.2 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida International 5 - 13 2.0 6.0 9.7 12.6 13.7 13.9 12.1 10.0 7.6 5.0 3.5 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Louisiana Tech 33.0% 23.8 7.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Liberty 26.2% 18.1 6.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Western Kentucky 16.1% 10.4 4.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Sam Houston St. 14.8% 9.4 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Middle Tennessee 12.3% 7.6 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
New Mexico St. 9.1% 5.5 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Kennesaw St. 4.6% 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
UTEP 3.6% 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville St. 2.2% 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Florida International 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Louisiana Tech 26.7% 23.7% 3.1% 12   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.6 6.0 9.7 3.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 73.3 4.0%
Liberty 21.3% 19.7% 1.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 4.1 8.7 3.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 78.7 2.1%
Western Kentucky 13.7% 13.4% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.2 4.6 3.9 1.9 1.0 0.5 86.3 0.3%
Sam Houston St. 12.7% 12.3% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.5 4.6 3.3 1.4 0.9 0.5 87.3 0.4%
Middle Tennessee 11.1% 10.7% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 3.7 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.3 88.9 0.4%
New Mexico St. 8.4% 8.1% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.8 2.2 1.0 0.6 0.3 91.6 0.4%
Kennesaw St. 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.6 95.2 0.0%
UTEP 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 96.3 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 97.3 0.0%
Florida International 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 99.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Louisiana Tech 26.7% 1.7% 25.9% 8.2% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Liberty 21.3% 1.0% 20.9% 5.6% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 13.7% 0.4% 13.5% 2.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 12.7% 0.5% 12.4% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 11.1% 0.5% 10.9% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 8.4% 0.4% 8.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 4.8% 0.4% 4.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 3.7% 0.3% 3.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 2.7% 0.3% 2.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 1.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 94.0 6.0 0.0
1st Round 99.2% 1.0 0.8 94.9 4.3 0.0
2nd Round 23.4% 0.2 76.6 23.0 0.4
Sweet Sixteen 6.7% 0.1 93.3 6.7 0.0
Elite Eight 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Final Four 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1