Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
77 Liberty 36.5%   12   18 - 5 9 - 4 22 - 6 13 - 5 +7.4      +1.5 124 +5.9 42 64.3 288 +8.1 75 +5.6 2
122 Middle Tennessee 10.8%   15 - 9 8 - 5 18 - 11 11 - 7 +2.2      +1.0 146 +1.2 136 69.5 137 +4.7 100 +4.3 3
123 Louisiana Tech 9.6%   15 - 9 7 - 7 17 - 11 9 - 9 +2.1      +1.5 125 +0.7 157 63.0 318 +3.5 115 +1.4 7
124 Jacksonville St. 11.2%   15 - 9 10 - 4 17 - 11 12 - 6 +2.1      +1.5 122 +0.6 159 63.3 308 +3.9 111 +6.7 1
131 Kennesaw St. 9.1%   13 - 11 8 - 6 15 - 13 10 - 8 +1.6      -0.3 182 +2.0 114 75.0 35 +2.3 129 +2.7 4
135 Western Kentucky 5.5%   12 - 12 5 - 8 15 - 14 8 - 10 +1.3      -1.1 206 +2.5 101 80.0 5 +1.1 148 -1.2 8
139 UTEP 7.9%   14 - 9 7 - 6 16 - 12 9 - 9 +1.2      -0.4 185 +1.6 130 69.8 131 +3.5 116 +2.0 6
146 New Mexico St. 6.6%   11 - 12 7 - 6 13 - 15 9 - 9 +0.8      -2.6 243 +3.4 81 64.5 281 +0.2 164 +2.1 5
160 Sam Houston St. 2.9%   8 - 16 4 - 10 10 - 18 6 - 12 +0.1      +0.8 153 -0.7 189 68.5 171 -1.8 191 -3.6 9
268 Florida International 0.0%   6 - 18 2 - 11 7 - 22 3 - 15 -5.6      -5.9 324 +0.3 164 72.9 61 -7.9 295 -7.9 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Liberty 1.3 74.3 18.6 5.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Middle Tennessee 3.0 11.8 22.4 38.1 15.2 7.3 4.0 1.3 0.1
Louisiana Tech 5.2 0.1 2.1 12.1 21.2 21.8 19.8 17.1 5.5 0.3
Jacksonville St. 1.7 43.8 44.3 9.2 2.1 0.6 0.1
Kennesaw St. 4.1 2.5 8.9 21.8 29.2 20.2 12.0 5.1 0.3
Western Kentucky 7.2 0.1 1.0 4.2 7.3 13.3 21.6 45.5 7.1 0.0
UTEP 5.0 0.8 6.3 14.3 19.4 19.8 18.7 14.7 5.6 0.4
New Mexico St. 5.0 0.5 4.4 16.1 19.1 17.9 19.4 15.8 6.2 0.5
Sam Houston St. 8.6 0.1 1.8 4.9 21.4 71.2 0.7
Florida International 10.0 0.5 3.7 95.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Liberty 13 - 5 0.1 1.5 9.5 27.0 39.5 22.4
Middle Tennessee 11 - 7 1.4 9.9 27.4 34.1 21.5 5.6
Louisiana Tech 9 - 9 4.5 21.4 35.9 29.0 9.3
Jacksonville St. 12 - 6 4.2 19.9 38.3 30.9 6.7
Kennesaw St. 10 - 8 7.2 27.4 40.1 21.6 3.8
Western Kentucky 8 - 10 1.8 13.9 30.5 33.3 16.8 3.6
UTEP 9 - 9 4.7 19.9 31.6 28.5 12.8 2.5
New Mexico St. 9 - 9 5.5 19.8 32.2 27.6 12.4 2.4
Sam Houston St. 6 - 12 7.1 24.8 36.9 24.6 6.6
Florida International 3 - 15 30.5 40.4 22.2 5.9 1.0 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 74.3% 49.6 19.8 4.5 0.4 0.1
Middle Tennessee 11.8% 2.3 5.2 3.8 0.3 0.1
Louisiana Tech 0.1% 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville St. 43.8% 19.9 19.0 4.4 0.4 0.1
Kennesaw St. 2.5% 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.1
Western Kentucky
UTEP 0.8% 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
New Mexico St. 0.5% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Sam Houston St.
Florida International


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 36.5% 36.5% 0.0% 12   0.0 0.1 5.7 27.0 3.5 0.2 63.5 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0 1.4 4.6 4.2 0.5 89.2 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 1.6 4.2 3.2 0.5 90.5 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.1 2.8 5.6 2.6 0.2 88.8 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.7 2.8 3.9 1.6 0.2 90.9 0.0%
Western Kentucky 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.5 1.4 1.9 1.5 0.2 94.6 0.0%
UTEP 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 3.0 3.2 0.7 0.0 92.1 0.0%
New Mexico St. 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.7 2.8 0.6 93.4 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.7 2.3 97.1 0.0%
Florida International 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 36.5% 0.0% 36.5% 7.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 10.8% 0.0% 10.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 9.6% 0.0% 9.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 11.2% 0.0% 11.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 9.1% 0.0% 9.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 5.5% 0.0% 5.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 7.9% 0.0% 7.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 6.6% 0.2% 6.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 2.9% 1.7% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 99.6% 1.0 0.5 99.5 0.0
2nd Round 11.2% 0.1 88.8 11.2
Sweet Sixteen 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0