Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
81 Liberty 31.2%   12   8 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 7 13 - 5 +7.0      +2.2 118 +4.8 56 62.5 336 +13.6 39 0.0 1
101 Louisiana Tech 19.6%   8 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 9 11 - 7 +5.1      +2.4 110 +2.7 103 64.1 309 +8.3 75 0.0 1
105 Western Kentucky 17.0%   7 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 +4.4      +0.1 171 +4.4 69 81.2 4 +5.0 101 0.0 1
127 Sam Houston St. 9.3%   4 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 +2.2      +2.9 100 -0.7 192 70.1 149 +1.4 146 0.0 1
131 Middle Tennessee 8.0%   7 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +1.7      +0.3 163 +1.5 125 68.8 183 +5.5 96 0.0 1
140 UTEP 6.1%   6 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 9 +1.0      -1.5 212 +2.5 107 70.7 126 +3.5 114 0.0 1
162 Kennesaw St. 4.1%   5 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -0.3      +0.4 156 -0.6 188 79.0 11 +2.9 122 0.0 1
167 Jacksonville St. 3.9%   4 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -0.6      +1.4 134 -2.0 235 62.8 330 -2.0 199 0.0 1
201 New Mexico St. 2.4%   4 - 6 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 11 -1.8      -1.9 227 +0.1 164 66.5 248 -2.3 203 0.0 1
248 Florida International 0.6%   2 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 20 5 - 13 -4.8      -4.8 303 0.0 167 74.4 57 -8.6 309 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Liberty 2.4 43.6 22.0 13.1 8.5 5.6 3.3 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.2
Louisiana Tech 3.2 25.9 21.6 16.6 12.1 8.8 6.2 4.3 2.4 1.4 0.6
Western Kentucky 3.5 21.6 20.0 16.9 12.7 10.3 7.4 5.2 3.4 1.9 0.7
Sam Houston St. 4.7 10.0 12.9 13.8 13.6 12.9 11.6 9.5 7.7 5.3 2.7
Middle Tennessee 5.0 8.0 11.0 12.7 13.8 13.4 12.4 10.6 8.7 6.2 3.2
UTEP 5.4 5.9 9.3 11.2 12.7 12.9 12.9 12.1 10.3 8.0 4.6
Kennesaw St. 6.1 3.5 6.0 8.4 10.3 11.9 12.5 14.0 13.4 11.8 8.3
Jacksonville St. 6.3 3.2 5.5 7.6 9.3 11.3 12.9 13.9 14.0 13.4 8.8
New Mexico St. 7.0 1.7 3.3 5.0 7.1 9.1 11.5 14.5 16.2 17.7 14.0
Florida International 8.3 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.7 6.6 9.7 14.4 21.8 37.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Liberty 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.6 8.6 11.5 14.0 15.6 14.6 12.0 7.6 3.6 0.9
Louisiana Tech 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.7 6.4 9.4 12.2 14.3 14.5 13.5 10.5 6.9 3.5 1.3 0.3
Western Kentucky 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.8 4.8 7.5 10.8 13.0 14.3 14.1 12.2 9.3 5.5 2.6 0.9 0.2
Sam Houston St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.1 6.6 9.5 12.2 13.5 13.5 12.4 9.9 7.2 4.3 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
Middle Tennessee 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 4.8 7.6 10.5 12.8 14.4 13.5 11.7 9.0 5.7 3.3 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
UTEP 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.7 6.2 9.0 11.8 13.6 13.9 12.8 10.4 7.1 4.7 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Kennesaw St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.2 5.9 9.3 11.8 13.7 13.5 12.8 10.6 7.5 4.9 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.6 6.6 9.9 12.2 13.8 14.2 12.2 9.5 7.0 4.4 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
New Mexico St. 7 - 11 0.2 1.0 3.0 5.8 9.2 12.4 14.4 15.0 12.7 9.9 7.2 4.4 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Florida International 5 - 13 1.2 4.6 9.1 13.4 15.5 15.7 13.6 10.4 7.3 4.6 2.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 43.6% 32.1 9.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Tech 25.9% 17.2 6.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Western Kentucky 21.6% 13.8 5.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Sam Houston St. 10.0% 5.6 3.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Middle Tennessee 8.0% 4.3 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
UTEP 5.9% 3.2 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Kennesaw St. 3.5% 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville St. 3.2% 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
New Mexico St. 1.7% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Florida International 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 31.2% 29.4% 1.8% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.5 9.5 16.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 68.9 2.5%
Louisiana Tech 19.6% 19.3% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.9 11.3 4.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 80.5 0.3%
Western Kentucky 17.0% 16.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.7 9.1 4.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 83.0 0.1%
Sam Houston St. 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.4 2.6 1.2 1.1 0.6 90.7 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.6 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 92.0 0.0%
UTEP 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 93.9 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 95.9 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.6 96.1 0.0%
New Mexico St. 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 97.6 0.0%
Florida International 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 99.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 31.2% 1.3% 30.5% 8.5% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 19.6% 0.2% 19.5% 3.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 17.0% 0.1% 16.9% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 9.3% 0.3% 9.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 8.0% 0.0% 8.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 6.1% 0.0% 6.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 4.1% 0.1% 4.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 3.9% 0.4% 3.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 2.4% 0.4% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.9 2.1
1st Round 99.5% 1.0 0.5 98.2 1.3
2nd Round 19.2% 0.2 80.8 19.1 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 4.5% 0.0 95.5 4.5 0.0
Elite Eight 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0