Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
205 Arkansas Little Rock 32.0%   16   2 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 11 14 - 6 -2.1      -1.5 209 -0.7 194 69.9 162 +1.9 163 0.0 1
268 Morehead St. 14.1%   1 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 13 12 - 8 -5.5      -5.2 322 -0.4 182 63.5 327 -3.0 226 0.0 1
272 SIU Edwardsville 13.1%   3 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 12 12 - 8 -5.7      -4.4 300 -1.3 212 66.8 259 +1.5 171 0.0 1
296 Tennessee St. 9.1%   1 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 15 11 - 9 -7.2      -4.0 289 -3.2 275 72.0 100 -10.9 311 0.0 1
301 Tennessee Martin 8.6%   1 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 10 -7.5      -5.1 321 -2.3 248 79.8 11 -1.6 209 0.0 1
315 Eastern Illinois 5.9%   0 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 17 10 - 10 -8.6      -5.8 333 -2.7 261 68.7 195 -2.3 217 0.0 1
320 Southeast Missouri St. 5.3%   0 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 18 9 - 11 -8.9      -5.0 314 -3.9 302 75.2 53 -11.5 314 0.0 1
322 Southern Indiana 4.6%   1 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 17 9 - 11 -9.0      -5.0 312 -4.0 304 67.9 227 -9.4 304 0.0 1
326 Western Illinois 4.1%   2 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 11 -9.2      -5.7 330 -3.5 293 62.7 337 -6.6 280 0.0 1
334 Tennessee Tech 2.7%   2 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 12 -10.4      -5.8 332 -4.6 321 65.7 281 -6.1 271 0.0 1
355 Lindenwood 0.6%   1 - 3 0 - 0 8 - 20 6 - 14 -13.9      -6.8 345 -7.1 355 68.0 222 -14.4 339 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Arkansas Little Rock 2.6 43.5 20.4 12.0 8.2 5.6 3.9 2.8 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.3
Morehead St. 4.0 18.7 17.7 14.5 11.9 9.7 8.0 6.5 5.1 3.9 2.7 1.3
SIU Edwardsville 4.3 15.8 16.5 14.5 12.5 10.6 8.8 7.1 5.8 4.2 3.0 1.3
Tennessee St. 5.2 10.3 11.6 12.0 11.3 11.5 10.4 9.2 8.0 6.7 5.6 3.3
Tennessee Martin 5.3 9.6 11.2 11.4 11.2 10.8 10.1 9.3 8.5 7.6 6.4 3.9
Eastern Illinois 6.0 6.3 8.3 9.4 10.1 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.2 9.7 8.2 5.7
Southeast Missouri St. 6.2 5.8 7.7 8.8 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.5 10.3 9.3 7.0
Southern Indiana 6.2 4.9 7.1 8.7 9.8 10.9 10.6 11.2 10.7 10.3 9.3 6.6
Western Illinois 6.5 3.9 6.2 7.5 9.3 10.3 10.9 11.4 11.3 11.5 10.3 7.4
Tennessee Tech 7.1 2.7 4.3 6.2 7.4 8.7 10.0 11.3 12.1 13.3 13.4 10.7
Lindenwood 8.9 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.0 3.9 5.5 7.3 9.7 13.8 19.0 34.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Arkansas Little Rock 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.2 4.8 7.0 9.0 11.3 12.9 13.2 12.6 10.4 7.1 3.5 1.1
Morehead St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.6 3.9 5.6 7.7 9.4 11.0 12.1 11.7 10.7 9.0 6.5 4.1 2.1 0.9 0.2
SIU Edwardsville 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.7 4.4 6.4 8.3 10.3 11.9 12.2 11.8 10.2 8.0 5.5 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.1
Tennessee St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.3 4.9 6.7 8.6 10.6 11.5 11.5 10.7 9.2 7.7 5.4 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
Tennessee Martin 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.7 5.4 7.4 9.0 10.4 11.2 11.4 10.3 8.9 6.9 5.1 3.3 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.0
Eastern Illinois 10 - 10 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.1 5.0 7.0 9.1 10.8 11.4 11.5 10.6 9.1 7.3 5.2 3.5 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 3.7 5.9 7.6 9.5 10.4 11.5 11.1 10.1 8.5 6.7 5.0 3.2 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Southern Indiana 9 - 11 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.8 5.6 7.7 9.9 11.0 12.1 11.7 10.3 8.6 6.5 4.4 2.8 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Western Illinois 9 - 11 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.4 4.0 6.6 8.5 10.3 11.7 12.1 11.6 9.9 7.8 5.6 3.8 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Tech 8 - 12 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.5 5.7 8.3 10.2 11.7 12.4 11.6 10.3 8.0 6.2 4.4 2.8 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Lindenwood 6 - 14 1.2 4.0 7.4 10.0 12.7 13.1 12.3 11.3 9.2 6.7 4.9 3.4 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arkansas Little Rock 43.5% 33.0 8.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Morehead St. 18.7% 12.4 4.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 15.8% 10.1 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.0
Tennessee St. 10.3% 6.4 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Martin 9.6% 5.9 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
Eastern Illinois 6.3% 3.8 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 5.8% 3.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Indiana 4.9% 2.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Illinois 3.9% 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Tech 2.7% 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lindenwood 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas Little Rock 32.0% 32.0% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.7 5.9 10.2 12.7 68.0 0.0%
Morehead St. 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.9 9.8 85.9 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.5 8.0 86.9 0.0%
Tennessee St. 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 7.8 90.9 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 6.2 91.4 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 4.8 94.1 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 4.7 94.7 0.0%
Southern Indiana 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 4.2 95.4 0.0%
Western Illinois 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.7 95.9 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.5 97.3 0.0%
Lindenwood 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 99.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas Little Rock 32.0% 6.3% 29.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 14.1% 6.5% 11.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 13.1% 4.7% 10.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 9.1% 6.0% 6.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 8.6% 4.2% 6.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 5.9% 3.7% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 5.3% 3.9% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 4.6% 3.4% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 4.1% 2.9% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 2.7% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 77.8% 0.8 22.2 77.8
2nd Round 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0