Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
217 Southeast Missouri St. 34.0%   16   15 - 10 13 - 4 17 - 11 15 - 5 -3.1      -2.9 255 -0.2 180 70.8 111 -3.3 220 -2.1 1
233 Arkansas Little Rock 20.0%   15 - 11 11 - 6 17 - 12 13 - 7 -3.9      -5.9 326 +2.0 113 67.3 202 -4.1 235 -5.1 3
234 SIU Edwardsville 27.7%   16 - 9 12 - 5 18 - 10 14 - 6 -4.0      -4.0 284 0.0 176 65.7 248 -3.6 225 -3.7 2
269 Tennessee St. 10.7%   11 - 14 10 - 7 13 - 15 12 - 8 -5.7      -3.2 261 -2.5 242 75.9 24 -7.7 294 -6.0 4
306 Tennessee Martin 2.2%   9 - 17 8 - 10 10 - 18 9 - 11 -8.4      -4.4 295 -4.0 296 67.7 193 -9.8 321 -9.0 8
308 Tennessee Tech 3.5%   12 - 14 9 - 8 14 - 15 11 - 9 -8.4      -4.3 294 -4.1 299 68.1 185 -7.1 287 -6.8 5
329 Morehead St. 1.2%   11 - 14 9 - 8 12 - 16 10 - 10 -10.3      -5.9 325 -4.4 305 62.4 329 -7.3 290 -7.6 6
335 Lindenwood 0.8%   11 - 14 9 - 8 12 - 16 10 - 10 -11.0      -8.3 352 -2.7 248 71.5 85 -8.3 301 -7.9 7
338 Eastern Illinois 0.0%   6 - 19 5 - 12 7 - 21 6 - 14 -11.5      -10.2 360 -1.3 210 66.3 231 -13.4 344 -13.8 9
343 Southern Indiana 0.0%   7 - 18 4 - 13 8 - 20 5 - 15 -12.3      -6.4 333 -5.8 334 67.9 189 -12.5 337 -15.6 11
351 Western Illinois 0.0%   7 - 18 4 - 13 8 - 20 5 - 15 -12.9      -6.2 330 -6.8 348 62.2 331 -12.8 338 -15.0 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Southeast Missouri St. 1.1 87.6 11.9 0.6
Arkansas Little Rock 2.7 6.5 32.0 51.0 9.8 0.6
SIU Edwardsville 1.8 37.8 45.7 14.7 1.8
Tennessee St. 3.7 0.1 6.1 38.4 41.8 10.1 3.1 0.4
Tennessee Martin 6.8 0.0 7.8 35.3 25.9 31.0
Tennessee Tech 4.8 0.1 9.3 26.4 45.4 12.5 4.8 1.6
Morehead St. 5.8 1.8 9.0 27.1 40.0 13.1 9.0
Lindenwood 6.2 0.6 4.3 23.3 29.8 29.5 12.5
Eastern Illinois 9.1 0.3 88.1 10.8 0.8
Southern Indiana 10.1 22.3 41.9 35.7
Western Illinois 10.0 28.0 49.0 23.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Southeast Missouri St. 15 - 5 3.4 23.8 47.5 25.3
Arkansas Little Rock 13 - 7 2.9 24.3 48.7 24.1
SIU Edwardsville 14 - 6 5.9 25.8 43.1 25.3
Tennessee St. 12 - 8 2.6 19.1 46.6 31.7
Tennessee Martin 9 - 11 8.6 39.4 52.0
Tennessee Tech 11 - 9 3.9 23.0 45.3 27.9
Morehead St. 10 - 10 19.2 46.9 28.5 5.5
Lindenwood 10 - 10 33.5 44.7 19.2 2.5
Eastern Illinois 6 - 14 31.0 42.8 22.2 4.1
Southern Indiana 5 - 15 43.3 40.9 14.0 1.8
Western Illinois 5 - 15 31.0 48.8 18.1 2.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Southeast Missouri St. 87.6% 60.0 23.8 3.7 0.1
Arkansas Little Rock 6.5% 0.3 2.5 3.7 0.1
SIU Edwardsville 37.8% 11.5 22.5 3.7 0.1
Tennessee St. 0.1% 0.1
Tennessee Martin
Tennessee Tech
Morehead St.
Lindenwood
Eastern Illinois
Southern Indiana
Western Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Southeast Missouri St. 34.0% 34.0% 0.0% 16   0.0 1.0 10.9 22.2 66.0 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.1 4.0 15.9 80.1 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 27.7% 27.7% 0.0% 0.3 6.3 21.1 72.3 0.0%
Tennessee St. 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 0.8 9.9 89.3 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 2.2 97.8 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.1 3.3 96.5 0.0%
Morehead St. 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 1.2 98.8 0.0%
Lindenwood 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Southeast Missouri St. 34.0% 9.8% 29.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 20.0% 8.0% 16.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 27.7% 10.8% 22.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 10.7% 7.0% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 2.2% 2.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 3.5% 2.6% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 78.7% 0.8 21.3 78.7
2nd Round 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0