Patriot League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
172 Colgate 27.2%   16   0 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 13 12 - 6 -0.6      -1.4 207 +0.8 146 65.7 288 -7.0 290 0.0 1
216 Lafayette 16.5%   1 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 13 11 - 7 -3.0      -3.8 289 +0.8 145 64.3 321 -1.4 219 0.0 1
242 Bucknell 13.1%   2 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 15 10 - 8 -3.9      -2.6 254 -1.3 211 68.6 199 -0.6 208 0.0 1
255 American 10.9%   1 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 16 10 - 8 -4.7      -1.5 209 -3.2 273 58.7 360 -6.4 284 0.0 1
259 Navy 9.3%   1 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 15 9 - 9 -5.1      -2.1 238 -3.0 265 67.6 233 -6.9 288 0.0 1
260 Lehigh 9.9%   0 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 15 10 - 8 -5.1      -2.0 237 -3.1 269 73.8 72 -7.5 297 0.0 1
305 Boston University 5.1%   0 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 18 8 - 10 -7.4      -4.1 295 -3.4 281 65.1 305 -14.5 343 0.0 1
313 Army 4.2%   1 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -8.2      -6.8 347 -1.3 213 59.9 358 +6.9 76 0.0 1
331 Loyola Maryland 2.6%   1 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 11 -9.8      -7.2 351 -2.5 249 65.9 284 -7.4 295 0.0 1
343 Holy Cross 1.4%   0 - 2 0 - 0 8 - 21 5 - 13 -11.6      -4.4 304 -7.2 359 65.3 304 -4.2 259 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Colgate 2.7 39.1 19.7 13.2 9.2 6.6 5.1 3.3 2.1 1.3 0.5
Lafayette 3.7 21.5 18.1 15.0 12.1 10.4 8.3 6.1 4.5 2.8 1.3
Bucknell 4.1 16.0 15.7 14.9 13.1 11.8 9.3 7.9 5.9 3.8 1.7
American 4.5 12.8 14.0 13.7 12.7 12.0 10.7 8.9 7.3 5.1 2.9
Navy 4.8 11.1 12.3 13.1 12.6 11.7 11.2 10.1 8.4 6.2 3.3
Lehigh 4.8 11.2 12.5 12.7 12.5 12.5 11.1 9.8 8.1 6.1 3.5
Boston University 6.0 4.7 7.2 8.6 10.4 11.3 12.3 12.9 12.7 11.9 8.0
Army 6.3 4.1 5.9 7.3 8.9 10.4 12.1 12.7 13.9 13.6 11.1
Loyola Maryland 7.1 2.2 3.6 4.8 6.7 8.5 10.6 12.5 15.3 17.7 18.0
Holy Cross 7.9 0.9 1.9 2.8 4.1 5.8 7.5 10.6 14.6 20.9 30.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Colgate 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.8 4.6 6.5 8.6 10.8 12.7 13.4 12.8 11.0 7.7 4.3 1.5
Lafayette 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.6 5.7 8.1 10.0 11.7 12.8 12.5 11.0 9.1 6.3 3.5 1.4 0.3
Bucknell 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.9 5.0 7.4 9.2 11.3 12.6 12.9 11.7 9.6 7.0 4.6 2.3 0.7 0.2
American 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.4 4.0 6.3 8.3 10.3 11.9 12.6 11.7 10.4 8.3 6.0 3.4 1.7 0.5 0.2
Navy 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.1 4.6 7.3 9.3 10.9 11.9 12.1 11.5 9.8 7.5 4.9 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.1
Lehigh 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.9 6.9 9.1 11.2 12.2 12.0 11.3 9.7 7.5 5.1 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.1
Boston University 8 - 10 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.7 6.3 8.7 11.0 12.1 12.0 11.8 10.0 8.3 5.8 3.8 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Army 8 - 10 0.3 1.1 2.8 5.0 7.8 9.8 11.3 12.4 12.0 10.8 8.6 6.9 4.7 3.1 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Loyola Maryland 7 - 11 0.7 2.2 5.1 7.9 10.6 11.8 12.6 12.2 11.0 8.8 6.4 4.8 2.8 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Holy Cross 5 - 13 1.7 5.1 8.6 12.0 13.6 13.5 12.3 10.3 8.0 5.7 4.0 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colgate 39.1% 28.8 8.2 1.8 0.4 0.0
Lafayette 21.5% 14.1 5.7 1.4 0.2 0.0
Bucknell 16.0% 9.9 4.6 1.2 0.3 0.0
American 12.8% 7.8 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0
Navy 11.1% 6.6 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
Lehigh 11.2% 6.7 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0
Boston University 4.7% 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Army 4.1% 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Loyola Maryland 2.2% 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Holy Cross 0.9% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colgate 27.2% 27.2% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.4 6.2 7.8 8.7 72.8 0.0%
Lafayette 16.5% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.7 4.9 7.4 83.5 0.0%
Bucknell 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.4 6.1 86.9 0.0%
American 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 6.4 89.2 0.0%
Navy 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 6.1 90.7 0.0%
Lehigh 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.4 6.1 90.1 0.0%
Boston University 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 4.4 94.9 0.0%
Army 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 95.8 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.1 97.5 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 98.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Colgate 27.2% 4.8% 25.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 16.5% 3.9% 14.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 13.1% 3.3% 11.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 10.9% 4.0% 9.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 9.3% 3.9% 7.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 9.9% 3.9% 8.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 5.1% 3.4% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 4.2% 1.7% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.6% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.4% 1.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 85.1% 0.9 14.9 85.1
2nd Round 3.6% 0.0 96.4 3.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0