Navy
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#203
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#223
Pace67.4#242
Improvement-1.4#273

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#246
First Shot-2.7#246
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#193
Layup/Dunks-1.6#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#86
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.2#334
Freethrows+3.6#17
Improvement-1.3#280

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#154
First Shot-0.5#178
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#142
Layups/Dunks+4.8#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#360
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#247
Freethrows+1.1#106
Improvement-0.1#187
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.3% 26.8% 20.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 92.7% 95.4% 84.8%
.500 or above in Conference 91.4% 94.5% 82.3%
Conference Champion 35.3% 40.7% 19.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.4% 2.2%
First Four5.7% 5.3% 6.9%
First Round22.6% 24.4% 17.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston University (Home) - 74.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 419 - 620 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 286 @Presbyterian W 76-55 54%     1 - 0 +17.4 +9.5 +9.6
  Fri, Nov 7 76 Yale L 68-97 25%     1 - 1 -24.7 -12.5 -10.0
  Tue, Nov 11 126 @Penn St. L 71-80 22%     1 - 2 -3.7 +0.2 -4.1
  Tue, Nov 18 21 @North Carolina L 61-73 3%     1 - 3 +7.0 -2.2 +9.3
  Sat, Nov 22 353 NJIT W 86-70 89%     2 - 3 -0.3 +10.1 -10.2
  Wed, Nov 26 362 Gardner-Webb W 84-51 88%     3 - 3 +17.5 +8.3 +10.9
  Fri, Nov 28 120 @UNC Wilmington L 57-87 21%     3 - 4 -24.2 -10.0 -16.4
  Sat, Nov 29 266 SE Louisiana L 65-69 61%     3 - 5 -9.7 -3.1 -7.0
  Wed, Dec 3 346 @Delaware St. W 66-59 73%     4 - 5 -2.1 -8.8 +6.6
  Sun, Dec 7 322 Air Force W 61-56 83%     5 - 5 -7.8 -9.6 +2.3
  Fri, Dec 19 364 Coppin St. W 88-55 95%     6 - 5 +10.8 +9.3 +3.0
  Wed, Dec 31 288 Boston University W 74-67 75%    
  Sat, Jan 3 326 @Holy Cross W 72-68 65%    
  Wed, Jan 7 308 Bucknell W 74-65 80%    
  Sat, Jan 10 321 Lafayette W 75-65 82%    
  Mon, Jan 12 268 @American W 73-72 50%    
  Sat, Jan 17 315 @Lehigh W 71-68 62%    
  Wed, Jan 21 326 Holy Cross W 75-65 83%    
  Sat, Jan 24 331 Army W 76-65 83%    
  Wed, Jan 28 288 @Boston University W 71-70 54%    
  Sat, Jan 31 329 Loyola Maryland W 78-68 82%    
  Wed, Feb 4 321 @Lafayette W 72-68 63%    
  Sat, Feb 7 268 American W 75-69 71%    
  Mon, Feb 9 308 @Bucknell W 71-68 60%    
  Sat, Feb 14 181 @Colgate L 69-73 35%    
  Wed, Feb 18 315 Lehigh W 74-65 80%    
  Sat, Feb 21 331 @Army W 73-68 66%    
  Wed, Feb 25 329 @Loyola Maryland W 75-71 65%    
  Sat, Feb 28 181 Colgate W 72-70 57%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.4 9.5 8.7 5.2 2.1 0.5 35.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.0 8.6 7.5 4.1 1.1 0.1 26.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.5 6.1 4.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 14.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 4.3 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.1 1.5 0.2 5.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.2 0.2 3.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.2 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.3 4.3 6.9 10.0 12.8 15.4 14.8 13.7 9.8 5.4 2.1 0.5 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.1    2.1 0.0
16-2 97.3% 5.2    4.9 0.3
15-3 89.0% 8.7    7.2 1.5 0.0
14-4 69.7% 9.5    6.4 3.0 0.2
13-5 43.1% 6.4    2.9 2.8 0.7 0.0
12-6 16.1% 2.5    0.5 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 35.3% 35.3 24.6 8.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 54.4% 54.4% 12.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2
17-1 2.1% 45.7% 45.7% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2
16-2 5.4% 42.9% 42.9% 14.5 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.1 3.1
15-3 9.8% 36.7% 36.7% 14.9 0.0 0.8 2.2 0.6 6.2
14-4 13.7% 34.9% 34.9% 15.3 0.0 0.4 2.6 1.7 8.9
13-5 14.8% 28.6% 28.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 1.6 2.5 10.6
12-6 15.4% 23.5% 23.5% 15.7 0.0 0.9 2.7 11.8
11-7 12.8% 19.4% 19.4% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.1 10.3
10-8 10.0% 16.2% 16.2% 15.9 0.1 1.5 8.4
9-9 6.9% 11.8% 11.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8 6.1
8-10 4.3% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.4 4.0
7-11 2.3% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.1 2.2
6-12 1.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 1.2
5-13 0.4% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.0 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.3% 25.3% 0.0% 15.3 0.1 0.6 2.9 9.0 12.5 74.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.8 30.2 61.6 8.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%