Florida A&M
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -9.6 319
Results Rating -8.7 303
Consistency 0.12 46
Pace 69.6 144
Improvement +3.4 59

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- 344 D D- F D D+
Defense C- 231 D C+ C+ D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 243 C- 56% 207 -1.8 246
2 Pt. Jumpers 50% 54 D+ 34% 298 +0.7 135
Three Pointers 39% 224 D 31% 307 -3.1 282
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 282 D -3.5 305
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 307
Second Chance D+ 27.5% 261 F 0.84 359 D- 0.23 339
Opponents' Steals D- 11.4% 329
Other Turnovers F 9.6% 353
Turnovers F 20.9% 354
Freethrows C- 0.29 240 D- 67% 336 D 0.19 289
Total Offense D- -7.6 344

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D 40% 306 B- 9.5% 97
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 129 B- 3.5% 68
Three Pointers C+ 85% 170 F 2.3% 359
Total D+ 51% 289 C+ 5.2% 134


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 86 C- 59% 215 +2.8 279
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 240 D+ 41% 277 -0.3 168
Three Pointers 39% 242 D- 38% 336 +1.3 255
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.5 265 D +3.2 303
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 309
Second Chance C- 31.2% 229 B- 0.96 76 C+ 0.30 153
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.3% 116
Other Turnovers C+ 7.5% 143
Turnovers C+ 17.8% 111
Freethrows D+ 0.33 275 F+ 76% 351 D 0.25 308
Total Defense C- -2.0 231

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 203 C 10.8% 184
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 239 D 2.0% 329
Three Pointers C+ 83% 146 C- 0.7% 214
Total C 56% 196 C- 5.2% 202

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.8 234 16.5 48
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 230 0.24 354
Consistency 0.12 197 0.10 25
Improvement +0.8 143 +2.6 63

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 326 316 297
Results Rating Rank 322 300 272
Conference Record 10 - 8 10 - 8 11 - 7
Conference Finish 4 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9% 11% 8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 4% 11% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four9% 11% 8%
First Round4% 4% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Bethune-Cookman (Home) - 41.8% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 00 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 412 - 1012 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 54 @South Florida L 67 - 102 3% -15  17% 0 - 1 F -22 F -10 F B F D- -7 D- C- B+
 Sat, Nov 8 159 Kennesaw St. L 72 - 92 26% -9  10% 0 - 2 F -23 F -15 F D B- D -5 F A C+
 Tue, Nov 11 51 @Central Florida L 60 - 97 2% -22  0% 0 - 3 F -23 F -15 D+ F F D -5 F F A+
 Mon, Nov 17 26 @Georgia L 57 - 87 1% -20  1% 0 - 4 D -11 F -17 C- F+ F A- +8 A+ D B+
 Tue, Dec 2 293 @Jacksonville L 82 - 85 OT 32% +0  42% 0 - 5 D+ -8 C +0 A+ F F D- -8 D- C- F
 Wed, Dec 17 293 Jacksonville W 72 - 65 55% +9  99% 1 - 5 C- -4 D+ -3 C- F B C -0 D- A+ C+
 Fri, Dec 19 220 @Tarleton St. L 54 - 78 20% -14  19% 1 - 6 F -25 F -25 F F F B- +2 C- F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 45 @TCU L 56 - 80 2% -5  43% 1 - 7 D -9 D -5 C+ F A+ D -5 C C B-
 Sun, Dec 28 148 @Georgia Tech L 65 - 89 11% -17  0% 1 - 8 F -20 F -11 D F B- F+ -9 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 237 @Bethune-Cookman L 83 - 87 21% -4  4% 1 - 9 0 - 1 D+ -5 B +7 C+ C+ C F -12 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 278 Southern W 67 - 59 49% +4  81% 2 - 9 1 - 1 C -1 F+ -10 F+ D F A +9 C+ A+ A
 Mon, Jan 12 308 Grambling St. W 91 - 84 59% +3  69% 3 - 9 2 - 1 D+ -5 A- +11 A A F F -16 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 332 @Arkansas Pine Bluff W 71 - 67 46% +1  65% 4 - 9 3 - 1 C- -5 D -5 C+ C- F C+ +1 C+ F B-
 Mon, Jan 19 365 @Mississippi Valley W 62 - 48 82% +13  99% 5 - 9 4 - 1 D+ -5 F -14 F D F A +10 A- A F+
 Sat, Jan 24 351 Alcorn St. W 66 - 58 75% -0  42% 6 - 9 5 - 1 D -9 F -14 C C+ F B+ +5 C B+ A+
 Mon, Jan 26 345 Jackson St. L 65 - 66 73% +3  85% 6 - 10 5 - 2 F+ -17 F -11 F+ F B- D -6 C F C-
 Sat, Jan 31 302 @Alabama A&M L 65 - 72 35% -8  0% 6 - 11 5 - 3 D- -13 D- -6 D- D- F D- -7 D B- C-
 Mon, Feb 2 316 @Alabama St. L 66 - 79 38% -3  32% 6 - 12 5 - 4 F -19 F -13 F+ F F D -6 F A A+
 Sat, Feb 7 299 Texas Southern L 57 - 62 57% -4  14% 6 - 13 5 - 5 F+ -16 F -18 F F F C+ +2 D- A- A+
 Mon, Feb 9 323 Prairie View W 100 - 96 65% +13  94% 7 - 13 6 - 5 D -10 C +0 A B F F -11 F C- A
 Sat, Feb 14 345 @Jackson St. L 60 - 80 51% -12  0% 7 - 14 6 - 6 F -30 F -20 F F D- F+ -10 F C D+
 Mon, Feb 16 351 @Alcorn St. W 86 - 78 54% +10  94% 8 - 14 7 - 6 C- -3 B- +4 F+ A B+ D- -7 C F D-
 Thu, Feb 19 302 Alabama A&M L 61 - 63 57% -1  17% 8 - 15 7 - 7 D- -14 F -14 D F F+ C+ +0 F+ C A-
 Sat, Feb 21 316 Alabama St. W 76 - 63 61% +5  77% 9 - 15 8 - 7 C +1 D+ -4 C+ F+ D B +4 C A- D-
 Thu, Feb 26 278 @Southern W 82 - 71 28% +4  48% 10 - 15 9 - 7 B- +8 B- +5 C A B+ B- +2 B- B- F
 Sat, Feb 28 308 @Grambling St. W 66 - 59 36% +7  96% 11 - 15 10 - 7 C +1 D -6 D C+ F A- +7 A- B D+
 Thu, Mar 5 237 Bethune-Cookman L 71 - 73 42%
Totals 11 - 16 10 - 8 -10 D- -8 D- D D+ C- -2 D D- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- C- D+ D D 36% 50% 39% D+ D D+ F D- F C- D- D C- C- D+ D- D 42% 19% 39% D+ D C- B- C+ C+ D+ F+ D
0.98 56% 34% 31% -3 -1 0.94 27% 0.8 .23 21% .29 67% .19 1.11 59% 41% 38% +3 +1 1.10 31% 1.0 .30 18% .33 76% .22
Nov
3		 South Florida F B- F F F 42% 17% 40% B+ F C- A+ B F A+ C A+ D- B- A+ F D- 55% 2% 43% F+ D- F A C- B+ F F F
0.84 59% 11% 14% -16 +1 0.71 28% 1.3 .35 26% .44 69% .30 1.27 54% 0% 41% +1 +4 1.12 49% 0.9 .46 19% .61 85% .52
Nov
8		 Kennesaw St. F F F F F 49% 20% 31% C+ F C F D B- A D B+ D F C- F F 47% 15% 38% C- F A+ F A C+ F+ D+ F
0.89 41% 25% 22% -16 +1 0.71 30% 0.8 .23 15% .48 73% .35 1.14 72% 38% 40% +10 +1 1.25 15% 1.5 .22 17% .42 71% .30
Nov
11		 Central Florida F D+ D+ F+ D 42% 16% 42% B+ D+ F+ F F F A F C- D B- A+ F F+ 56% 16% 28% F F F B- F A+ B- C+ B-
0.81 52% 38% 29% -6 +1 0.92 18% 0.3 .05 21% .38 55% .21 1.30 56% 22% 69% +11 +2 1.28 47% 1.1 .53 21% .27 75% .21
Nov
17		 Georgia F F+ A- D+ C- 39% 20% 41% C+ C- B- F F+ F C+ F D+ A- F F A+ A+ 46% 10% 44% D+ A+ F A D B+ F F F
0.75 44% 44% 32% -6 0 0.91 36% 0.5 .17 33% .27 57% .16 1.14 82% 60% 5% -6 +2 0.94 53% 0.9 .47 17% .55 83% .46
Dec
2		 Jacksonville C A+ F A+ A+ 33% 28% 39% F A+ F A+ F F F F F D- C- A+ F+ D 39% 12% 49% F+ D- D C+ C- F C- B C
1.11 83% 20% 62% +20 -1 1.39 8% 2.0 .16 23% .11 50% .05 1.15 57% 14% 38% -1 +1 1.03 33% 1.0 .33 12% .29 68% .20
Dec
17		 Jacksonville D+ B+ C+ D+ C 39% 31% 31% F C- D+ F F B A+ F B+ C B+ A+ F D 49% 11% 40% F D- A A+ A+ C+ C- D D+
1.10 68% 40% 33% +4 -1 1.08 27% 0.4 .10 12% .51 59% .30 1.00 48% 0% 47% -1 +2 1.04 23% 0.6 .13 18% .30 75% .23
Dec
19		 Tarleton St. F F+ F F F 43% 13% 45% B F F D+ F F B+ F C- B- A F F C+ 61% 20% 18% F C- D F F A+ F C+ F+
0.70 50% 17% 19% -16 +1 0.72 23% 1.0 .23 30% .44 63% .27 1.00 43% 50% 44% -4 +2 0.98 34% 1.3 .46 26% .40 74% .29
Dec
21		 TCU D F+ A+ D+ B 32% 34% 34% F C+ F F F A+ C+ F D- D D- A+ D C 36% 16% 48% C C F+ A- C B- D- F F
0.86 47% 56% 31% +1 -2 1.00 13% 0.5 .06 15% .27 47% .13 1.23 67% 13% 38% +2 0 1.06 42% 0.9 .39 17% .41 86% .35
Dec
28		 Georgia Tech F C- C+ F D+ 25% 27% 48% D D C F F B- D F F F+ F D- F F 67% 16% 18% F F F C+ F A+ F F+ F
0.88 53% 38% 28% -6 -2 0.87 30% 0.6 .18 15% .25 38% .10 1.20 70% 43% 63% +16 +3 1.40 44% 1.1 .48 27% .41 77% .31
Jan
3		 Bethune-Cookman B B D A- B 35% 29% 35% F C+ F+ A+ C+ C B A+ A F F D- B+ F 41% 24% 35% C+ F A- F+ B- F F F F
1.16 61% 33% 39% +2 -1 1.04 24% 1.6 .39 15% .36 82% .30 1.21 80% 42% 29% +7 0 1.16 22% 1.2 .26 14% .55 76% .42
Jan
10		 Southern F+ C+ F F+ F 38% 14% 48% B- F+ B F D F B A+ A A C+ F A+ C+ 32% 29% 39% B- C+ D+ A+ A+ A F C+ F
1.00 63% 17% 30% -4 +1 0.95 38% 0.8 .31 27% .41 85% .35 0.88 54% 58% 19% -4 -2 0.90 31% 0.5 .15 21% .51 67% .34
Jan
12		 Grambling St. A- A+ A+ C- A+ 28% 21% 51% F+ A B- A+ A F A+ A A+ F D+ C+ D- F 50% 18% 32% F+ F C F F F F F F
1.26 77% 70% 33% +11 -1 1.23 37% 1.3 .48 23% .47 81% .38 1.16 60% 33% 38% +2 +1 1.08 28% 1.4 .40 17% .43 85% .36
Jan
17		 Arkansas Pine Bluff D A+ F C- C+ 38% 19% 43% D+ C+ C- C- C- F A+ F B C+ D- B- B+ C 33% 28% 40% B- C+ A F F B- D- F F
1.08 81% 13% 33% +4 0 1.10 34% 1.1 .38 24% .48 67% .32 1.02 64% 33% 29% -2 -1 0.95 18% 2.0 .36 20% .36 84% .30
Jan
19		 Mississippi Valley F C- D- F F 33% 20% 47% D+ F C F+ D F F+ B+ D A A C A+ B+ 15% 45% 40% A A- B A+ A F+ C+ C- C
0.96 60% 33% 29% -4 0 0.93 37% 1.1 .40 30% .33 80% .26 0.75 43% 38% 21% -10 -5 0.72 20% 0.5 .10 17% .26 71% .19
Jan
24		 Alcorn St. F B- F C- C- 53% 10% 38% B C D A+ C+ F D F F+ B+ B+ F A+ C+ 52% 19% 29% F C C- A+ B+ A+ D- D D-
0.99 67% 25% 33% +3 +2 1.13 33% 1.4 .48 29% .30 64% .19 0.87 48% 67% 21% -5 +1 0.94 26% 0.6 .16 26% .30 73% .22
Jan
26		 Jackson St. F A+ F F D 25% 29% 46% F F+ D- F F B- D+ F F D F A+ D D+ 21% 40% 40% A+ C F D F C- F B+ F
1.05 92% 21% 27% -1 -2 0.96 31% 0.8 .26 15% .32 53% .17 1.06 67% 24% 35% -3 -4 0.88 38% 1.1 .41 18% .41 71% .29
Jan
31		 Alabama A&M D- F F A+ D 41% 27% 32% D D- B+ F D- F A+ B- A+ D- B A+ F D- 32% 23% 45% C- D F+ A+ B- C- F F F
1.04 41% 27% 54% 0 -1 1.00 38% 0.6 .24 21% .48 75% .36 1.15 50% 20% 45% +1 -1 1.02 31% 0.7 .22 16% .44 91% .40
Feb
2		 Alabama St. F F A+ D F 47% 14% 39% B- F+ F F F F D B D+ D B- F F F 35% 25% 39% C+ F C- A+ A A+ C- F+ D+
0.91 43% 57% 32% -6 +1 0.94 24% 0.9 .21 23% .32 78% .25 1.09 50% 54% 50% +11 -1 1.22 31% 0.5 .14 23% .29 75% .22
Feb
7		 Texas Southern F F D+ D+ F 30% 26% 44% F F A- F F F A- D B C+ A+ F F D- 46% 26% 28% D+ D- D- A+ A- A+ A F B+
0.89 46% 36% 32% -6 -1 0.88 41% 0.3 .12 25% .44 67% .29 0.97 38% 67% 46% +3 0 1.09 30% 0.6 .17 23% .20 80% .16
Feb
9		 Prairie View C B+ F A+ A+ 47% 27% 25% D+ A B- C+ B F A F B F F+ A+ F F 52% 22% 26% F F C- D+ C- A F A F
1.16 65% 20% 71% +13 0 1.27 39% 1.2 .45 27% .46 66% .30 1.12 64% 25% 43% +4 +1 1.11 24% 1.1 .27 21% .59 68% .40
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
14		 Jackson St. F F F F F 31% 29% 40% F F F F F D- A+ A+ A+ F+ D- F+ D- F 52% 26% 22% F F F A+ C D+ D- D+ F+
0.86 50% 23% 22% -14 -2 0.71 20% 0.9 .17 19% .48 89% .43 1.15 62% 46% 36% +5 0 1.12 38% 0.7 .26 17% .33 79% .26
Feb
16		 Alcorn St. B- D F B F+ 35% 24% 41% F F+ C- A+ A B+ A+ D A+ D- C+ C B C 46% 29% 25% C C C- F F D- F F F
1.20 56% 27% 37% -1 -1 0.98 36% 1.7 .61 15% .50 70% .35 1.09 54% 33% 31% -4 -1 0.92 27% 1.8 .47 15% .38 87% .33
Feb
19		 Alabama A&M F D- F B D 31% 16% 53% D+ D D F F F+ F C F C+ D B- F F+ 45% 27% 27% D+ F+ A+ F C A- B+ F C+
0.97 53% 25% 38% 0 0 1.02 28% 0.6 .17 19% .14 71% .10 1.00 60% 33% 42% +3 0 1.07 13% 2.0 .25 21% .28 86% .24
Feb
21		 Alabama St. D+ A+ B- F B- 40% 21% 38% D+ C+ C+ F F+ D A+ F B B A+ B- F C 34% 30% 36% B+ C A+ D A- D- F A+ C-
1.09 79% 40% 28% +5 0 1.13 34% 0.8 .26 20% .50 61% .30 0.90 41% 33% 39% -5 -2 0.90 17% 1.0 .17 14% .40 50% .20
Feb
26		 Southern B- C- B C D+ 52% 14% 34% A- C B A A B+ B C- B B- A+ C D- B- 34% 21% 45% D B- B+ D B- F F B F
1.17 58% 43% 35% +1 +2 1.08 38% 1.4 .52 16% .40 75% .30 1.01 33% 36% 38% -6 0 0.89 24% 1.1 .26 10% .44 64% .28
Feb
28		 Grambling St. D C- A+ F D+ 38% 32% 30% F D B- D+ C+ F F C+ F A- A+ B+ D- B+ 33% 29% 39% A- A- D+ A+ B D+ A F B-
0.98 58% 56% 20% -1 -2 0.98 38% 1.0 .38 24% .23 75% .17 0.87 31% 29% 37% -10 -1 0.80 30% 0.8 .23 19% .24 85% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 41.8 41.8 2nd
3rd 18.8 18.8 3rd
4th 39.4 39.4 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 58.2 41.8 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 41.8% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 4.5 37.3
10-8 58.2% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 4.5 53.7
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 16.0 91.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.5% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 12.5%
Lose Out 26.1%