Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +3.3 114
Results Rating +1.3 138
Consistency 0.18 316
Pace 66.4 239
Improvement +7.9 7

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 166 C- B- D+ C+ C
Defense B- 81 B- C- A- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 74 D+ 55% 262 +1.1 136
2 Pt. Jumpers 45% 93 C 38% 165 +0.7 136
Three Pointers 35% 301 C- 33% 231 -3.7 303
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 182 C- -1.9 251
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 233
Second Chance B 35.8% 38 C- 1.01 207 B- 0.36 73
Opponents' Steals C- 10.0% 249
Other Turnovers D+ 8.0% 282
Turnovers D+ 18.0% 268
Freethrows C+ 0.32 119 C 72% 197 C+ 0.23 129
Total Offense C -0.2 166

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B 57% 54 D+ 13.0% 309
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 30% 112 C 5.5% 230
Three Pointers C 84% 185 C- 1.1% 263
Total C+ 59% 110 D- 7.2% 329


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 294 B- 55% 103 -3.4 69
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 275 B+ 33% 21 -2.0 29
Three Pointers 48% 18 C+ 33% 139 +2.9 313
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 182 B- -2.6 74
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 94
Second Chance D- 34.6% 331 B- 0.97 86 C- 0.34 245
Turnovers from Steals B 11.7% 43
Other Turnovers B+ 8.8% 27
Turnovers A- 20.5% 23
Freethrows C 0.30 178 D+ 74% 293 C 0.22 198
Total Defense B- +3.5 81

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F 65% 365 B 14.4% 58
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 38% 338 C 4.9% 172
Three Pointers F 93% 361 C- 0.8% 178
Total F 72% 363 C+ 6.2% 130

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 213 17.6 232
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 105 0.18 231
Consistency 0.13 204 0.13 213
Improvement +2.5 67 +5.5 11

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 125 116 105
Results Rating Rank 160 139 104
Conference Record 12 - 8 12 - 8 12 - 8
Conference Finish 3 3 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8% 15% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.9 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round8% 15% 0%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 24 - 54 - 6
Quad 35 - 79 - 14
Quad 47 - 116 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 229 Detroit Mercy W 91 - 71 83% +6  60% 1 - 0 B+ +13 C +0 C A F A +11 A+ B+ B+
 Fri, Nov 7 160 @Oregon St. L 73 - 76 51% -3  28% 1 - 1 C -0 C +0 B D- F C -0 D- F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 348 @Chicago St. W 67 - 63 89% -2  33% 2 - 1 D+ -6 D- -7 F A+ D- C+ +1 D C- B-
 Thu, Nov 20 94 High Point L 80 - 90 40% -6  2% 2 - 2 C- -4 C +2 C- A+ D- D -5 D+ C+ B
 Sat, Nov 22 336 Southern Indiana W 84 - 73 92% +11  99% 3 - 2 C -1 C +1 B- D F+ C- -3 F B- B
 Wed, Nov 26 155 @Robert Morris L 74 - 88 50% -13  0% 3 - 3 D -11 C+ +2 D A D+ F -14 D+ F B
 Wed, Dec 3 332 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 62 - 63 94% -5  8% 3 - 4 F+ -16 F -23 F D- F A- +8 C+ D- B
 Sun, Dec 7 87 @Yale L 66 - 80 28% -4  33% 3 - 5 C- -5 D+ -3 F C- B+ C- -2 A+ F D+
 Sat, Dec 13 68 @Belmont L 84 - 87 21% +3  60% 3 - 6 0 - 1 B +9 A+ +19 A- B+ A F -11 F D A-
 Wed, Dec 17 88 Northern Iowa L 54 - 60 50% -2  36% 3 - 7 0 - 2 C- -3 D- -8 F B A- B +4 D+ C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 170 @Charlotte L 76 - 88 OT 55% +2  63% 3 - 8 D -10 D+ -3 C+ F+ F+ D- -7 B- B- C
 Thu, Jan 1 124 Murray St. L 77 - 81 64% +1  48% 3 - 9 0 - 3 C- -4 D -5 F+ B+ F C+ +1 A+ F B+
 Sun, Jan 4 156 @Valparaiso L 59 - 66 50% +1  49% 3 - 10 0 - 4 C- -4 D- -7 D B- F B- +2 B B- B+
 Wed, Jan 7 121 Southern Illinois W 70 - 57 63% +8  88% 4 - 10 1 - 4 B+ +13 B +6 F+ A+ A+ A- +8 C- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 99 @Illinois St. W 63 - 59 OT 32% +1  52% 5 - 10 2 - 4 B+ +12 D- -7 F A+ F A+ +19 A+ C- C+
 Tue, Jan 13 88 @Northern Iowa W 69 - 61 28% +0  38% 6 - 10 3 - 4 A- +17 A- +11 A- B- A+ A- +8 A+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 207 Drake W 74 - 67 80% +7  95% 7 - 10 4 - 4 C +2 C- -1 F A B- B- +3 B- A- C
 Tue, Jan 20 295 Evansville W 76 - 49 90% +13  86% 8 - 10 5 - 4 A- +16 C- -1 C B+ B+ A+ +18 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 110 @Bradley W 85 - 70 38% +8  76% 9 - 10 6 - 4 A +21 A+ +18 A+ C+ A- B +4 C C+ C-
 Tue, Jan 27 201 Indiana St. W 76 - 74 79% +9  94% 10 - 10 7 - 4 C- -3 C +1 B+ D D+ D+ -5 F+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 121 @Southern Illinois W 68 - 66 40% -6  26% 11 - 10 8 - 4 B- +8 B- +5 F+ A+ F B- +3 C- A+ D+
 Tue, Feb 3 124 @Murray St. L 74 - 81 41% -8  0% 11 - 11 8 - 5 C -1 D- -7 F+ B- C B+ +6 A- F A+
 Fri, Feb 6 68 Belmont L 62 - 68 41% -9  0% 11 - 12 8 - 6 C -0 D- -7 C F C B+ +6 C A A+
 Thu, Feb 12 207 @Drake W 80 - 70 61% +4  76% 12 - 12 9 - 6 B +11 B+ +9 C- D+ A B- +2 C C- A-
 Sun, Feb 15 99 Illinois St. W 83 - 56 54% +13  79% 13 - 12 10 - 6 A+ +29 B +6 A- A+ C A+ +22 A+ A A+
 Wed, Feb 18 295 @Evansville W 84 - 46 78% +16  97% 14 - 12 11 - 6 A+ +33 A +14 A+ B F A+ +22 A+ C+ B+
 Sat, Feb 21 156 Valparaiso L 67 - 71 72% -6  11% 14 - 13 11 - 7 D+ -7 D+ -3 D A- D+ D+ -4 C+ C C-
 Tue, Feb 24 110 Bradley W 93 - 86 2OT 61% +4  87% 15 - 13 12 - 7 B- +7 B+ +7 A B- A- C -1 C+ D- B-
 Sun, Mar 1 201 @Indiana St. L 63 - 79 60% -6  33% 15 - 14 12 - 8 F+ -15 F+ -9 D F F D- -7 F A- A+
 Fri, Mar 6 124 Murray St. W 79 - 78 53%
Totals 16 - 14 12 - 8 +3 C +0 C C- C B- +3 C- C C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ C C- C- 43% 45% 35% C C- B C- B- D+ C+ C C+ B- B- B+ C+ B- 35% 18% 48% C B- D- B- C- A- C D+ C
1.08 55% 38% 33% -2 0 0.98 36% 1.0 .36 18% .32 72% .23 1.04 55% 33% 33% -3 0 0.97 35% 1.0 .34 20% .30 74% .24
Nov
3		 Detroit Mercy C F D+ A+ C 35% 18% 47% D+ C C+ A+ A F A+ A+ A+ A C+ C- A+ A+ 15% 25% 59% C- A+ F A+ B+ B+ D B- D+
1.15 44% 33% 42% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.5 .50 20% .57 83% .47 0.90 56% 40% 23% -10 -2 0.78 39% 0.6 .22 19% .31 75% .23
Nov
7		 Oregon St. C B- A+ C- B 31% 10% 58% C+ B C- F D- F B+ A+ A+ C D- F D+ F 27% 20% 54% B D- F A- F A+ F D F
1.06 60% 60% 32% +1 +1 1.06 30% 0.8 .24 20% .38 86% .33 1.10 64% 50% 36% +6 -1 1.12 54% 1.1 .57 30% .52 80% .42
Nov
15		 Chicago St. D- C F F F 53% 10% 38% B+ F A- A+ A+ D- A+ C- A+ C+ F C+ B D- 33% 30% 37% D+ D F+ B+ C- B- D- C D
1.06 62% 25% 13% -11 +2 0.85 43% 1.4 .60 22% .57 75% .42 0.99 67% 36% 29% 0 -2 0.98 34% 0.8 .29 17% .31 75% .23
Nov
20		 High Point C A+ C- F C 33% 23% 44% D- C- A+ B- A+ D- A+ C- A+ D C+ A+ F D+ 39% 11% 50% C D+ D+ A- C+ B F D- F
1.10 81% 36% 24% +1 -1 1.02 48% 1.1 .55 25% .44 71% .31 1.23 59% 20% 41% +3 +1 1.11 34% 1.0 .34 16% .61 81% .49
Nov
22		 Southern Indiana C C+ A+ D+ C 60% 13% 27% A- B- C+ F D F+ A+ A+ A+ C- F F A+ F+ 38% 9% 53% F F F+ A+ B- B D+ A+ A
1.14 59% 50% 33% +2 +2 1.11 35% 0.7 .26 19% .55 85% .47 0.99 64% 80% 23% -3 +2 0.98 35% 0.6 .21 19% .34 40% .13
Nov
26		 Robert Morris C+ F A+ A- F+ 60% 10% 31% A+ D A+ D+ A D+ A+ F A F D A+ D- C- 43% 10% 47% F D+ F F F B D- F F
1.09 40% 50% 38% -8 +3 0.93 47% 0.9 .42 18% .59 58% .34 1.30 62% 0% 39% +1 +2 1.08 48% 1.4 .70 21% .30 81% .24
Dec
3		 Arkansas Pine Bluff F F D- F F 61% 12% 27% A F B- F D- F B- D C+ A- D+ A+ C B- 46% 18% 36% F C+ D+ F D- B A+ A+ A+
0.86 43% 33% 15% -17 +3 0.73 40% 0.8 .33 24% .40 73% .29 0.87 61% 11% 33% -4 +1 0.96 28% 1.1 .31 21% .21 50% .11
Dec
7		 Yale D+ F F+ A- F 37% 27% 37% D+ F A- F C- B+ B A+ A C- A A+ D A+ 35% 27% 38% A- A+ F+ F F D+ F D- F
1.01 28% 31% 39% -10 -1 0.80 36% 0.8 .27 12% .30 88% .26 1.23 47% 15% 39% -7 -1 0.85 38% 1.5 .56 14% .50 82% .41
Dec
13		 Belmont A+ B- C- A+ A 20% 24% 56% D- A- A C- B+ A D A+ B- F C- F F F 40% 5% 56% D F F A+ D A- F D F
1.32 60% 33% 43% +7 -2 1.12 42% 1.0 .42 13% .23 100% .23 1.36 65% 50% 54% +20 +2 1.47 44% 0.9 .40 22% .44 73% .32
Dec
17		 Northern Iowa D- D F F F 48% 16% 36% B+ F B B B A- D F D- B B- D F D- 21% 26% 52% A+ D+ F A+ C+ A+ C+ F D+
0.88 50% 13% 17% -17 +1 0.70 31% 1.0 .31 15% .21 64% .13 0.98 56% 45% 41% +7 -2 1.12 29% 0.8 .21 24% .24 82% .19
Dec
21		 Charlotte D+ F A+ A+ C+ 42% 19% 38% B- C+ B+ F F+ F+ B D- C+ D- B B- D B 45% 12% 43% D+ B- F A+ B- C F F F
1.07 41% 50% 45% +1 0 1.06 37% 0.6 .23 18% .36 67% .24 1.23 55% 33% 38% 0 +2 1.06 47% 0.6 .26 18% .60 86% .51
Jan
1		 Murray St. D D F A- D- 42% 38% 21% F+ F+ A D B+ F A+ A A+ C+ A+ A+ B- A+ 35% 29% 37% A A+ F F F B+ D F F
1.05 50% 28% 40% -5 -2 0.88 44% 0.9 .41 20% .45 81% .36 1.10 44% 20% 32% -11 -1 0.77 43% 1.4 .62 19% .37 86% .32
Jan
4		 Valparaiso D- B+ B+ F D+ 36% 36% 29% F D B- B- B- F B+ F B- B- A A+ F B+ 39% 34% 26% C- B C+ B B- B+ F F+ F
0.95 67% 40% 17% -4 -2 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 26% .37 65% .24 1.06 47% 15% 50% -6 -2 0.87 30% 1.0 .30 18% .78 78% .61
Jan
7		 Southern Illinois B F F F F 51% 15% 34% A- F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A- A- B+ F B- C- 41% 25% 33% C- C- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.08 46% 29% 25% -12 +2 0.81 41% 1.3 .54 14% .40 64% .25 0.88 52% 62% 29% +1 0 1.04 17% 0.6 .10 23% .08 50% .04
Jan
10		 Illinois St. D- F C+ F F 40% 40% 19% D- F B+ A+ A+ F F A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 15% 58% C A+ D B C- C+ F F+ F
0.91 43% 38% 10% -13 -2 0.71 33% 1.7 .56 22% .20 91% .18 0.85 43% 13% 19% -21 0 0.60 32% 1.0 .32 17% .38 77% .30
Jan
13		 Northern Iowa A- A+ A- F A 45% 27% 29% C- A- F+ A+ B- A+ A- F C- A- C+ A- A+ A+ 39% 14% 48% C A+ F C- F B+ F+ F F
1.10 73% 46% 21% +3 0 1.08 17% 1.6 .28 10% .32 56% .18 0.97 59% 33% 14% -14 +1 0.75 33% 1.2 .39 18% .31 88% .27
Jan
17		 Drake C- F F C F 28% 23% 50% C- F B A A B- A+ F A+ B- A+ F A- B- 25% 25% 49% B+ B- C A+ A- C C- A+ B
1.12 45% 22% 35% -6 -1 0.88 35% 1.2 .41 14% .66 63% .42 1.01 38% 69% 28% -1 -2 0.96 26% 0.8 .21 15% .32 56% .18
Jan
20		 Evansville C- A+ A- F C 43% 29% 27% C- C C+ A- B+ B+ A- F C A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 25% 11% 64% F A+ F A+ B+ A+ B- F C-
1.13 73% 47% 21% +4 -1 1.08 33% 1.2 .39 13% .34 60% .21 0.73 45% 40% 25% -12 0 0.80 31% 0.5 .17 28% .25 83% .21
Jan
24		 Bradley A+ A B A+ A+ 20% 43% 37% F A+ B D+ C+ A- D A+ C B F+ F+ A C+ 34% 19% 47% C- C A- F C+ C- F+ C+ D-
1.30 70% 43% 56% +16 -4 1.27 34% 0.9 .31 15% .29 81% .23 1.07 69% 44% 27% 0 0 1.02 21% 1.3 .27 14% .39 73% .28
Jan
27		 Indiana St. C C C A+ B+ 45% 24% 31% C+ B+ B- F D D+ A B- A D+ F F C+ F+ 43% 7% 50% C- F+ F F F A+ A A+ A+
1.12 57% 42% 44% +5 0 1.12 36% 0.7 .24 16% .35 75% .26 1.09 74% 67% 32% +7 +2 1.20 50% 1.2 .61 31% .17 50% .09
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Southern Illinois B- C- F F F 47% 16% 37% B+ F+ A+ C A+ F A+ A+ A+ B- A- A- F C 47% 26% 28% D C- A+ A+ A+ D+ F D F
1.03 55% 29% 19% -12 +1 0.81 49% 1.0 .49 26% .53 81% .43 1.00 50% 33% 46% 0 0 1.02 16% 0.4 .06 15% .39 73% .29
Feb
3		 Murray St. D- F F C F 38% 25% 36% C- F+ D- A+ B- C A+ F A- B+ A+ F B A 35% 14% 51% C- A- C+ F F A+ D B- D+
0.99 43% 29% 35% -8 -1 0.85 27% 1.4 .38 16% .46 59% .27 1.08 44% 57% 31% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.7 .53 21% .37 73% .27
Feb
6		 Belmont D- C+ A+ F C 39% 27% 34% C- C B- F F C A F B+ B+ D+ A+ F C- 21% 9% 70% A- C D+ A+ A A+ D A+ C+
0.98 59% 58% 20% -1 -1 0.98 35% 0.5 .18 17% .36 68% .25 1.07 67% 25% 43% +10 0 1.23 31% 0.8 .23 27% .35 56% .19
Feb
12		 Drake B+ B- D A+ C+ 30% 37% 33% F C- B- F D+ A C+ A+ A+ B- B A+ F+ C+ 33% 17% 50% D+ C C+ F+ C- A- C F D
1.22 63% 30% 44% +4 -3 1.04 33% 0.8 .25 11% .31 94% .29 1.07 53% 25% 39% 0 0 1.02 25% 1.3 .31 18% .30 81% .24
Feb
15		 Illinois St. B A- A+ F A 48% 33% 19% C+ A- A+ B A+ C F F F A+ A D- A+ A+ 22% 17% 61% C+ A+ A+ F A A+ A+ F A+
1.14 68% 47% 27% +6 -1 1.12 39% 1.1 .42 16% .13 50% .07 0.77 50% 44% 24% -10 -1 0.81 14% 1.4 .20 23% .11 83% .09
Feb
18		 Evansville A B C- A+ A+ 28% 22% 50% C- A+ A D B F F B+ F A+ F A+ A+ A+ 21% 19% 60% C- A+ B+ F C+ B+ A+ A+ A+
1.30 64% 36% 60% +21 -1 1.42 41% 0.9 .38 23% .10 80% .08 0.71 80% 11% 18% -15 -1 0.70 16% 1.3 .22 22% .16 63% .10
Feb
21		 Valparaiso D+ C- D- F+ D 46% 24% 30% C D B A A- D+ B F C- D+ D+ A+ F+ C+ 28% 34% 38% B C+ F+ A- C C- F D- F
1.04 57% 27% 29% -6 0 0.91 35% 1.2 .41 19% .34 61% .21 1.11 62% 19% 39% -3 -3 0.91 37% 0.9 .34 14% .45 76% .34
Feb
24		 Bradley B+ C B+ A+ A- 45% 17% 38% A A F+ A+ B- A- A+ D A+ C A A+ D- B 45% 7% 47% F C+ F+ C- D- B- D A C
1.19 58% 44% 45% +7 +1 1.19 22% 1.6 .34 15% .48 69% .33 1.10 48% 25% 38% -2 +2 1.02 33% 1.1 .35 15% .36 67% .24
Mar
1		 Indiana St. F+ D A- F F+ 64% 13% 22% A+ D A- F F F A+ C+ A+ D- F C+ F F 26% 17% 57% A+ F C A+ A- A+ C+ F C-
0.93 52% 50% 20% -7 +3 0.93 41% 0.3 .11 22% .50 73% .36 1.17 83% 38% 52% +22 0 1.45 25% 0.7 .17 25% .24 75% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 100.0% 8.2% 8.2% 12.9 0.0 1.8 5.3 1.1 91.8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 12.9 91.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.2% 100.0% 12.9 0.1 22.5 64.1 13.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 9.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 35.4%
Lose Out 46.7%