McNeese St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +7.0 82
Results Rating +9.3 65
Consistency 0.14 114
Pace 66.1 247
Improvement -2.1 259

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 101 C- C+ A- C C+
Defense B- 70 C+ D A+ F+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 68 C 59% 163 +2.8 82
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% 178 C+ 40% 107 +0.2 167
Three Pointers 37% 263 D 30% 318 -4.0 316
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 130 C- -1.4 225
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 207
Second Chance B- 33.7% 84 C- 1.01 210 C+ 0.34 106
Opponents' Steals A+ 5.7% 1
Other Turnovers C- 7.5% 221
Turnovers A- 13.2% 17
Freethrows C 0.30 200 B- 75% 106 C 0.22 164
Total Offense C+ +2.9 101

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 45% 250 A- 6.9% 15
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 244 C+ 4.4% 148
Three Pointers D 78% 313 B+ 0.3% 37
Total D 48% 314 B+ 3.9% 24


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 305 C 57% 162 -2.9 81
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 313 B- 36% 95 -2.0 32
Three Pointers 50% 10 C+ 33% 118 +3.6 324
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 211 C+ -1.6 123
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 131
Second Chance D- 35.2% 338 C- 1.06 241 D 0.37 322
Turnovers from Steals A+ 15.6% 1
Other Turnovers A- 8.9% 25
Turnovers A+ 24.5% 1
Freethrows F+ 0.38 351 D+ 74% 275 F+ 0.28 351
Total Defense B- +4.1 70

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 54% 302 B+ 16.1% 37
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 206 B 7.6% 48
Three Pointers C- 86% 244 A+ 3.0% 4
Total D 63% 327 B+ 8.2% 26

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.6 91 18.9 349
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 28 0.14 88
Consistency 0.12 153 0.11 65
Improvement -3.4 328 +1.3 113

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 91 83 75
Results Rating Rank 74 65 57
Conference Record 19 - 3 19 - 3 19 - 3
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 11
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49% 64% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.9 11.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round49% 64% 0%
Second Round8% 10% 0%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 22 - 22 - 4
Quad 38 - 110 - 5
Quad 415 - 125 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 44 @Santa Clara L 67 - 79 21% -5  30% 0 - 1 C+ +3 C- -0 F A+ C B- +3 B- B- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 298 Louisiana W 88 - 62 95% +18  98% 1 - 1 A- +15 A +13 A+ F B- B- +3 A+ F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 78 George Washington W 92 - 86 48% +6  76% 2 - 1 B+ +14 A +13 C+ A+ A+ C+ +0 A- F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 124 Murray St. W 73 - 60 66% +16  84% 3 - 1 A- +16 F+ -8 D F A+ A+ +23 A+ D+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 163 Middle Tennessee W 72 - 62 76% -3  17% 4 - 1 B +10 A +13 F A+ A C -1 D A- B+
 Mon, Dec 1 262 @Incarnate Word L 67 - 71 82% -5  1% 4 - 2 0 - 1 D+ -7 D- -8 F+ B- F C+ +1 F F A+
 Fri, Dec 5 277 Northwestern St. W 92 - 54 93% +24  98% 5 - 2 1 - 1 A+ +29 A+ +17 A+ C B A+ +13 C+ A- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 130 @Rhode Island W 66 - 64 58% +2  70% 6 - 2 B- +7 D+ -2 C- F A+ A +9 D+ C A+
 Fri, Dec 12 306 East Texas A&M W 102 - 66 95% +26  99% 7 - 2 2 - 1 A+ +24 A- +11 A+ B+ D- A +9 C+ C A+
 Mon, Dec 15 288 @Houston Christian W 78 - 68 85% -1  43% 8 - 2 3 - 1 B- +6 A +13 B A+ A D -6 B- F C-
 Mon, Dec 29 2 @Michigan L 71 - 112 3% -30  0% 8 - 3 D -11 C- -0 D+ D+ A+ D+ -4 C- F B+
 Fri, Jan 2 245 Lamar W 82 - 70 91% +4  71% 9 - 3 4 - 1 C+ +4 A+ +18 B+ A- A F -12 A+ F C
 Mon, Jan 5 101 Stephen F. Austin W 66 - 64 69% -2  10% 10 - 3 5 - 1 C+ +4 C+ +2 B- F+ A B- +2 B- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 287 SE Louisiana W 73 - 61 94% +7  83% 11 - 3 6 - 1 C+ +2 B- +4 B- F+ B+ C -1 C+ F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 249 Nicholls St. W 94 - 68 91% +15  90% 12 - 3 7 - 1 A +18 B+ +9 B- C+ A+ A- +7 D A A+
 Sat, Jan 17 143 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 76 - 79 61% -10  3% 12 - 4 7 - 2 C +1 B+ +9 D+ C A+ F+ -9 F F B+
 Mon, Jan 19 188 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 53 71% +6  76% 13 - 4 8 - 2 A- +17 A- +10 D- A+ B- A +10 B- A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 196 New Orleans W 82 - 63 87% +9  95% 14 - 4 9 - 2 B+ +14 C+ +3 D C+ C+ A +11 C- C+ A+
 Tue, Jan 27 287 @SE Louisiana W 76 - 66 85% +8  91% 15 - 4 10 - 2 B- +6 B +6 B- C- B- C+ +1 D+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 245 @Lamar W 64 - 63 79% +3  85% 16 - 4 11 - 2 C -1 B- +4 F C A+ D+ -4 C- D+ C+
 Mon, Feb 2 101 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 67 47% -6  3% 16 - 5 11 - 3 C +1 F -11 F A+ F A+ +12 B- C A-
 Sat, Feb 7 262 Incarnate Word W 81 - 64 92% +6  85% 17 - 5 12 - 3 B +8 B+ +9 A F+ A+ C+ +1 D F A+
 Mon, Feb 9 288 Houston Christian W 73 - 69 94% +5  95% 18 - 5 13 - 3 D+ -6 D -5 C+ F+ B- C -1 C+ D A
 Sat, Feb 14 306 @East Texas A&M W 97 - 54 88% +18  95% 19 - 5 14 - 3 A+ +37 A+ +24 A C A+ A+ +15 A C+ A-
 Mon, Feb 16 277 @Northwestern St. W 75 - 64 83% +11  98% 20 - 5 15 - 3 B- +8 B +7 F B- A+ B- +2 C- B A-
 Sat, Feb 21 188 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 70 - 54 86% +5  65% 21 - 5 16 - 3 B +11 C- -1 D B+ A A+ +13 F+ B A+
 Mon, Feb 23 143 UT Rio Grande Valley W 75 - 68 80% +4  83% 22 - 5 17 - 3 B- +5 C +0 D- B+ B B +5 D B- A+
 Sat, Feb 28 196 @New Orleans W 66 - 63 72% +4  77% 23 - 5 18 - 3 C+ +4 D -5 F A A A +9 A+ F A-
 Mon, Mar 2 249 @Nicholls St. W 75 - 65 80% +6  88% 24 - 5 19 - 3 B- +8 C+ +2 F+ F A+ B+ +7 B- D A+
Totals 24 - 5 19 - 3 +7 C+ +3 C- C- C+ B- +4 D B- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C C+ D C- 43% 38% 37% C+ C- B- C- C+ A- C B- C B- C B- C+ C+ 34% 16% 50% C- C+ D- C- D A+ F+ D+ F+
1.13 59% 40% 30% -1 0 1.00 34% 1.0 .34 13% .30 75% .22 1.03 57% 36% 33% -2 0 0.99 35% 1.1 .37 24% .38 74% .22
Nov
7		 Santa Clara C- F A+ F F 50% 23% 27% C F C- A+ A+ C A+ C+ A B- C+ A+ F+ B- 26% 13% 61% B- B- F A+ B- A+ F A+ F
0.99 45% 60% 8% -12 +1 0.80 29% 1.9 .55 21% .43 74% .32 1.17 58% 17% 39% +2 0 1.07 57% 0.7 .39 22% .48 60% .29
Nov
14		 Louisiana A B+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 7% 49% B A+ C F F B- A+ B A+ B- B+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 26% 43% F+ A+ F D- F A+ F F F
1.32 67% 67% 50% +18 +2 1.41 32% 0.4 .12 16% .70 77% .54 0.93 46% 18% 22% -16 -1 0.67 41% 1.0 .41 25% .46 87% .40
Nov
23		 George Washington A B+ F B- C+ 49% 25% 25% C C+ A B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A F A- A- 29% 7% 64% B+ A- F F F A+ F F F
1.25 67% 21% 36% +1 0 1.04 39% 1.2 .47 11% .43 82% .35 1.17 50% 100% 30% -2 +1 1.00 55% 1.4 .79 33% .60 80% .48
Nov
24		 Murray St. F+ B- B- F D- 42% 20% 38% C+ D D F F A+ C- F F A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 26% 19% 55% A- A+ D C D+ A+ F A+ D+
0.98 60% 42% 22% -6 0 0.92 28% 0.7 .20 11% .29 53% .15 0.81 33% 33% 23% -16 -1 0.68 36% 1.1 .40 27% .48 58% .28
Nov
25		 Middle Tennessee A F F F F 43% 25% 33% D+ F A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ C A+ F F F+ 19% 33% 49% A+ D F A+ A- B+ D A+ C
1.27 41% 20% 23% -17 0 0.68 51% 1.4 .71 11% .49 92% .45 1.09 25% 50% 48% +8 -3 1.12 41% 0.5 .21 19% .31 57% .17
Dec
1		 Incarnate Word D- D- A+ F D- 42% 29% 29% F+ F+ D A+ B- F F A+ D C+ F A F F 26% 28% 46% A- F F F F A+ F C F
1.02 53% 69% 15% -1 -1 0.98 28% 1.4 .40 20% .27 86% .23 1.08 70% 27% 44% +7 -2 1.13 41% 1.3 .52 24% .48 71% .34
Dec
5		 Northwestern St. A+ A B- A+ A+ 57% 13% 30% A- A+ A+ F C B D- B- D+ A+ A+ B C B- 22% 13% 65% D- C+ C+ A+ A- A+ A C+ A
1.37 70% 43% 50% +15 +2 1.36 50% 0.7 .37 15% .28 75% .21 0.81 40% 33% 33% -5 0 0.91 23% 0.8 .17 28% .23 73% .17
Dec
9		 Rhode Island D+ D- B+ C+ C- 51% 14% 35% B C- C F F A+ D+ F D- A D- F B+ D+ 42% 11% 47% D D+ A+ F C A+ F F F
0.96 48% 43% 35% -4 +2 0.98 31% 0.5 .15 16% .33 63% .21 0.94 67% 50% 29% +2 +1 1.08 17% 1.8 .30 31% .57 85% .48
Dec
12		 East Texas A&M A- C D A+ A+ 58% 6% 36% A A+ A- C- B+ D- A- A A A C F A+ B 40% 12% 48% D- C+ D+ B C A+ D A+ C
1.29 58% 33% 58% +13 +3 1.34 41% 1.1 .45 20% .38 79% .30 0.84 57% 50% 24% -6 +1 0.92 27% 0.8 .22 28% .28 56% .16
Dec
15		 Houston Christian A A+ B+ F B+ 46% 19% 35% C B D+ A+ A+ A F B+ F D A+ A+ F C 27% 27% 47% A B- F+ F F C- F+ F F
1.30 86% 44% 24% +9 +1 1.21 30% 2.1 .65 13% .17 78% .13 1.13 42% 17% 43% -4 -2 0.91 34% 1.3 .46 17% .34 82% .28
Dec
29		 Michigan C- F D+ F D+ 27% 29% 44% C+ D+ B F D+ A+ A+ C- A D+ F F A D+ 48% 10% 42% C C- F F F B+ F B+ F
0.85 39% 32% 24% -14 -2 0.71 29% 0.7 .21 11% .32 71% .23 1.34 79% 60% 29% +9 +2 1.24 48% 1.7 .83 18% .66 69% .45
Jan
2		 Lamar A+ C A+ B+ A- 45% 21% 34% C+ B+ A+ D A- A A+ B+ A+ F B- A+ A+ A+ 23% 23% 53% D A+ F F F C F F F
1.36 59% 63% 38% +8 0 1.18 45% 0.9 .42 13% .76 75% .57 1.16 50% 20% 22% -16 -1 0.67 45% 1.6 .71 17% .62 81% .50
Jan
5		 Stephen F. Austin C+ B A+ D- B- 33% 16% 51% C B- A F F+ A D F F+ B- A- F B+ B+ 35% 17% 48% F B- F+ F F A+ A A+ A
1.09 63% 63% 28% +1 0 1.04 40% 0.5 .21 12% .24 62% .15 1.05 47% 50% 30% -4 0 0.94 39% 1.2 .47 25% .15 57% .09
Jan
10		 SE Louisiana B- B- F B C 54% 14% 32% A B- A F F+ B+ F C- F C A- A+ B B+ 49% 3% 49% F C+ F F F A+ F B F
1.16 63% 29% 38% +3 +2 1.12 41% 0.6 .25 16% .28 73% .21 0.97 47% 0% 29% -10 +3 0.89 37% 1.4 .50 27% .61 64% .39
Jan
12		 Nicholls St. B+ B- D+ A+ B 42% 20% 38% C- B- F+ A+ C+ A+ C A B A- B- A+ D- D+ 36% 4% 60% F D C- A+ A A+ B- A B
1.26 65% 36% 43% +8 0 1.18 27% 1.5 .40 15% .35 86% .30 0.91 53% 0% 38% 0 +2 1.06 28% 0.5 .15 25% .25 57% .14
Jan
17		 UT Rio Grande Valley B+ B A+ F D+ 35% 25% 40% D+ D+ A F C A+ A- A+ A+ F+ D D- F F 25% 16% 59% B- F B F F B+ F D+ F
1.18 65% 50% 21% -2 -1 0.96 41% 0.6 .26 11% .42 88% .37 1.23 64% 43% 46% +13 0 1.27 24% 1.8 .44 20% .35 78% .27
Jan
19		 TX A&M Corpus Christi A- C- D F D- 51% 24% 24% C D- A+ A+ A+ B- A+ D+ A+ A F+ C- A+ C 30% 35% 35% A+ B- A+ A- A+ B+ F C F
1.17 58% 33% 22% -6 0 0.92 50% 1.4 .68 19% .54 69% .38 0.90 64% 38% 23% -4 -2 0.89 17% 0.8 .13 20% .51 67% .34
Jan
24		 New Orleans C+ C F F F+ 63% 8% 29% A+ D A+ F C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A B- C- C C+ 49% 13% 38% F C- A F C+ A+ F B- F
1.18 56% 25% 20% -8 +3 0.92 48% 0.8 .38 14% .50 83% .42 0.91 53% 40% 33% -3 +2 1.00 27% 1.3 .33 33% .54 72% .39
Jan
27		 SE Louisiana B A- A+ F B- 48% 23% 30% B- B- D+ C C- B- A+ D+ A+ C+ D A+ F D 22% 22% 57% B- D+ B- F F A+ F F F
1.14 68% 56% 25% +5 0 1.13 29% 1.1 .32 18% .53 72% .39 0.99 63% 13% 38% -1 -1 0.97 25% 1.4 .36 27% .74 78% .58
Jan
31		 Lamar B- C- F A+ D- 28% 40% 33% F F B- D C A+ C- A+ A D+ B- B- D- C- 27% 38% 36% B C- F A+ D+ C+ D+ D- D
1.12 58% 18% 43% -4 -3 0.88 34% 0.9 .31 12% .38 89% .34 1.10 50% 35% 38% -1 -3 0.93 49% 0.7 .34 17% .25 75% .19
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 Stephen F. Austin F F F+ F F 51% 6% 43% A+ F A- A+ A+ F C+ C+ C+ A+ A+ F C B 33% 24% 43% C- B- D B+ C A- F F F
0.86 42% 33% 20% -18 +3 0.72 36% 1.5 .55 23% .30 75% .22 0.96 33% 55% 35% -3 -1 0.93 37% 0.9 .33 17% .34 80% .28
Feb
7		 Incarnate Word B+ A+ F A+ A 53% 9% 37% A- A D+ F F+ A+ A+ F A+ C+ A- B F D+ 39% 9% 52% F D F C+ F A+ F B F
1.31 74% 25% 44% +13 +3 1.33 29% 0.9 .25 10% .55 65% .36 1.03 46% 33% 41% 0 +2 1.06 52% 0.9 .48 37% .61 67% .41
Feb
9		 Houston Christian D C A+ D- C 60% 19% 21% B C+ F C+ F+ B- C+ D+ C C C- F A+ C+ 40% 23% 36% C C+ C F D A F F F
1.08 62% 56% 30% +4 +2 1.15 22% 1.2 .26 16% .30 71% .21 1.02 58% 45% 24% -4 0 0.94 29% 1.1 .32 22% .36 89% .32
Feb
14		 East Texas A&M A+ B+ B+ A+ A+ 38% 15% 47% C- A D A C A+ F+ D+ F+ A+ F A+ A+ A 28% 17% 55% B- A A- F C+ A- D+ F F
1.42 65% 44% 46% +12 +1 1.28 28% 1.3 .38 6% .25 69% .17 0.79 69% 25% 19% -11 0 0.79 18% 1.2 .21 22% .26 86% .23
Feb
16		 Northwestern St. B D D+ C- D- 27% 35% 38% F F B- C B- A+ D F F B- F A- A+ C- 43% 33% 25% C C- F A+ B A- F F F
1.18 53% 37% 33% -2 -3 0.93 36% 1.1 .41 8% .29 59% .17 1.01 71% 31% 20% -2 -1 0.95 34% 0.6 .21 20% .54 81% .44
Feb
21		 TX A&M Corpus Christi C- C F F F+ 51% 14% 35% B+ D B- A- B+ A C- C+ C- A+ A F F D- 40% 5% 55% F F+ A D+ B A+ A+ B A+
1.07 60% 29% 24% -6 +2 0.94 32% 1.2 .38 15% .40 73% .29 0.82 44% 50% 41% +1 +2 1.08 21% 1.0 .21 34% .18 63% .11
Feb
23		 UT Rio Grande Valley C C F F F+ 45% 22% 33% C+ D- C A+ B+ B A+ B- A+ B F F A D- 31% 13% 56% C D A- D- B- A+ F A+ D+
1.09 59% 27% 25% -6 0 0.90 33% 1.1 .35 15% .49 72% .36 0.99 86% 50% 28% +5 0 1.13 21% 1.2 .25 25% .33 59% .19
Feb
28		 New Orleans D D+ B F F 33% 24% 43% D- F D- A+ A A B+ F D+ A C+ A- A+ A+ 40% 22% 38% D+ A+ F C- F A- F C+ F
1.02 53% 45% 15% -12 -1 0.76 29% 1.6 .47 11% .42 58% .24 0.98 56% 30% 18% -12 0 0.78 43% 1.1 .46 23% .54 74% .40
Mar
2		 Nicholls St. C+ C A F F 54% 4% 42% A F+ F F F A+ A+ A A+ B+ A+ F C+ B 28% 3% 70% D- B- F A+ D A+ F C- F
1.11 62% 50% 20% -6 +3 0.96 25% 0.8 .19 13% .48 86% .41 0.97 36% 100% 32% -6 +2 0.93 50% 0.6 .31 27% .61 67% .41



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3 0.0%
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3 100.0% 49.0% 48.9% 0.2% 11.9 9.2 36.5 3.3 51.0 0.3%
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 49.0% 48.9% 0.2% 11.9 51.0 0.3%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 48.9% 100.0% 11.9 18.5 74.7 6.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 27.2% 0.5% 11.2 0.4 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 24.0% 0.1% 11.0 0.1