Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.4 254
Expected Predictive Rating -5.3 247
Pace 76.7 22
Improvement +3.9 41

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #200 D C B- B D
Defense D+ #301 C- D C- C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 300 52% 310 -4.4 328
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 55 33% 318 +1.4 99
Three Pointers 38% 243 33% 198 -1.8 248
1st FG Attempt 0.92 323 -4.8 323
Second Chance 27.7% 261 1.15 44 0.32 154
Turnovers 15.8% 108
Freethrows 0.33 91 78% 18 0.26 44
Total Offense -1.2 200

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 82 57% 150 -1.9 247
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 351 46% 358 +1.4 88
Three Pointers 44% 99 33% 149 -0.9 226
1st FG Attempt 1.05 227 -1.4 227
Second Chance 33.3% 293 1.14 320 0.38 322
Turnovers 16.2% 221
Freethrows 0.31 194 74% 268 0.23 214
Total Defense -4.2 301

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.2 320 +1.1 352
Shot Type Accuracy -3.6 304 +0.3 195
Possession Length 16.2 70 16.3 29
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 93 0.19 244
Improvement +5.2 #8 -1.3 #264

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 4% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0% 1% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 31% 56% 22%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 4% 1% 5%
First Four2% 3% 2%
First Round2% 3% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Away) - 24.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 33 - 113 - 17
Quad 47 - 29 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 133 UC Santa Barbara L 87 - 92 34% -6  10% 0 - 1 D+ -6 B- +4 B B- C+ F+ -10 C- C- F
 Fri, Nov 14 180 @UC Davis L 73 - 77 25% +2  54% 0 - 2 C- -2 D+ -4 D- B- C- C+ +2 B+ D C
 Sun, Nov 16 272 Presbyterian W 64 - 62 65% -4  11% 1 - 2 D+ -7 F -12 F A F B +5 A B+ D-
 Tue, Nov 18 34 @UCLA L 48 - 79 3% -19  0% 1 - 3 D- -14 F -20 F C- B- B+ +7 B F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 73 @California L 67 - 91 7% -18  4% 1 - 4 D- -13 D- -8 F B B- D+ -4 F B- B-
 Sat, Nov 29 115 @Pacific L 54 - 68 14% -6  7% 1 - 5 D+ -8 F -18 F C- C A +11 B- B+ B
 Tue, Dec 2 42 @Baylor L 88 - 110 4% -7  33% 1 - 6 D+ -6 A- +11 F+ A+ C- F -15 F F B-
 Sat, Dec 20 138 @California Baptist L 67 - 74 18% -2  32% 1 - 7 C- -3 C- -1 F A+ C- C- -2 A F B-
 Mon, Dec 22 186 @Cal St. Northridge L 88 - 100 26% -4  18% 1 - 8 D -11 C +1 D- F+ A+ F+ -9 F A+ F+
 Thu, Jan 1 250 @Idaho St. L 84 - 97 37% -10  3% 1 - 9 0 - 1 F+ -15 D- -6 F B- C D -7 F+ C F
 Sat, Jan 3 232 @Weber St. L 82 - 95 33% -10  1% 1 - 10 0 - 2 D- -14 D+ -4 C D- D- F+ -9 D- F+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 142 @Portland St. L 69 - 96 18% -14  13% 1 - 11 0 - 3 F -23 D+ -3 F+ F A+ F -19 F B F+
 Thu, Jan 15 311 Northern Arizona W 83 - 69 74% +1  43% 2 - 11 1 - 3 C+ +2 B- +4 D- A+ A+ C -1 D+ C+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 175 Northern Colorado W 93 - 89 OT 44% -7  7% 3 - 11 2 - 3 C +0 C+ +2 C B- B C- -3 D+ B C+
 Thu, Jan 22 189 @Idaho L 76 - 86 27% -7  3% 3 - 12 2 - 4 D -9 C- -1 F A B+ D- -8 F B- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 229 @Eastern Washington L 67 - 75 32% -7  1% 3 - 13 2 - 5 D -9 D -6 F D+ D D+ -4 B+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 29 162 Montana St. W 83 - 80 42% +3  68% 4 - 13 3 - 5 C -0 B- +4 A+ F C+ D+ -5 C D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 31 170 Montana W 86 - 79 43% +8  86% 5 - 13 4 - 5 C+ +3 B+ +7 A+ F B- D+ -4 B F B-
 Mon, Feb 2 232 Weber St. W 104 - 90 56% +12  88% 6 - 13 5 - 5 B- +7 A +12 A+ F D+ D -7 C F D
 Sat, Feb 7 142 Portland St. L 73 - 74 36% +1  53% 6 - 14 5 - 6 C- -3 C+ +3 D+ D A+ D -5 A+ F F
 Thu, Feb 12 175 @Northern Colorado L 79 - 86 24%
 Sat, Feb 14 311 @Northern Arizona W 79 - 78 51%
 Thu, Feb 19 229 Eastern Washington W 83 - 82 55%
 Sat, Feb 21 189 Idaho L 79 - 80 48%
 Thu, Feb 26 170 @Montana L 77 - 85 23%
 Sat, Feb 28 162 @Montana St. L 73 - 81 22%
 Mon, Mar 2 250 Idaho St. W 80 - 77 60%
Totals 9 - 18 8 - 10 -5 C- -1 D C B- D+ -4 C- D C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D D C D 34% 28% 38% D D D+ B+ C B- B- B+ B D+ C+ F C+ C 42% 14% 44% D- C- D+ D D C- C D+ C
1.07 52% 33% 33% -4 -1 0.92 28% 1.2 .32 16% .33 78% .26 1.15 57% 46% 33% 0 +1 1.05 33% 1.1 .38 16% .31 74% .25
Nov
11		 UC Santa Barbara B- C- A+ A B+ 40% 27% 33% D+ B D+ A+ B- C+ B- F C- F+ B B F C 44% 17% 39% D C- B F C- F F+ C+ D-
1.19 57% 57% 41% +8 -1 1.17 24% 1.4 .32 16% .37 65% .24 1.25 54% 33% 48% +6 +1 1.15 29% 1.2 .34 11% .38 76% .29
Nov
14		 UC Davis D+ D- C D F+ 52% 22% 26% C D- C B B- C- B- A B+ C+ C F A+ A 41% 8% 51% F B+ C+ F D C F D+ F
1.01 50% 36% 31% -6 +1 0.92 31% 1.1 .34 19% .36 81% .29 1.06 60% 50% 24% -6 +2 0.94 26% 1.3 .34 18% .45 78% .35
Nov
16		 Presbyterian F D A+ F F 61% 16% 23% B+ F B- A+ A F A+ B A+ B C+ A A+ A+ 47% 14% 39% F A D+ A+ B+ D- D A- C
0.96 52% 57% 10% -9 +2 0.89 33% 1.3 .43 26% .51 72% .36 0.93 57% 29% 16% -13 +1 0.80 35% 0.7 .25 17% .38 62% .23
Nov
18		 UCLA F F F F F 26% 28% 47% D- F C- C C- B- A+ F A+ B+ C- D+ A A- 42% 24% 34% F+ B C F F A+ F A+ D+
0.68 42% 23% 9% -26 -2 0.47 28% 0.9 .26 18% .52 63% .33 1.12 62% 42% 29% 0 0 1.02 33% 1.5 .52 21% .43 67% .29
Nov
21		 California D- F F D- F 35% 24% 41% D F A- C- B B- A+ A+ A+ D+ D F D- F 32% 11% 58% F+ F C- A- B- B- B A+ A+
0.89 26% 23% 27% -19 -1 0.63 36% 0.9 .32 15% .47 80% .37 1.21 67% 83% 39% +12 +1 1.28 29% 0.9 .26 16% .30 53% .16
Nov
29		 Pacific F D+ F F F 34% 29% 38% C F D- A C- C F A+ D- A A- B D B 36% 15% 49% D+ B- C- A B+ B A+ C+ A+
0.76 53% 13% 19% -17 -1 0.64 18% 1.3 .23 16% .20 92% .18 0.96 47% 38% 38% -1 +1 1.02 35% 0.8 .27 23% .15 75% .11
Dec
2		 Baylor A- A+ F D- D- 8% 45% 47% F+ F+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ F F F A+ F 33% 35% 33% C+ F F F F B- F D+ F
1.16 75% 30% 29% -5 -5 0.80 45% 1.4 .62 17% .48 87% .41 1.45 100% 65% 25% +19 -2 1.35 61% 1.4 .82 16% .58 76% .44
Dec
20		 California Baptist C- F A+ F F+ 22% 35% 44% F F A+ A+ A+ C- F A+ F C- A+ F B- A+ 61% 9% 30% F A D- F F B- F B- F
0.99 17% 58% 21% -11 -3 0.75 38% 1.4 .51 16% .11 83% .09 1.10 33% 50% 31% -15 +3 0.77 43% 1.3 .55 19% .55 70% .38
Dec
22		 Cal St. Northridge C F B D D 32% 32% 35% F+ D- F A+ F+ A+ A- A+ A+ F+ D F D F 50% 9% 41% F+ F A A+ A+ F+ F F F
1.08 48% 43% 30% -4 -2 0.91 15% 1.5 .23 10% .37 89% .33 1.23 62% 80% 38% +8 +2 1.22 25% 0.7 .17 13% .43 77% .33
Jan
1		 Idaho St. D- F A- D- F 37% 31% 31% F+ F D A+ B- C A+ D A+ D A- D+ F F 37% 12% 51% C- F+ A- F C F F+ B- D-
1.04 35% 53% 29% -6 -1 0.87 26% 1.5 .38 15% .54 73% .39 1.20 48% 43% 48% +8 +1 1.19 26% 1.2 .32 12% .38 70% .27
Jan
3		 Weber St. D+ A+ F B+ B 21% 37% 42% F C C F D- D- B+ F C F+ B+ D+ F D- 49% 16% 35% C D- D+ F F+ C- F F+ F
1.06 100% 24% 38% +6 -3 1.07 30% 0.8 .25 19% .39 63% .24 1.23 48% 38% 50% +4 +1 1.12 34% 1.2 .41 16% .52 76% .40
Jan
10		 Portland St. D+ C C+ F D- 29% 38% 33% F F+ F F F A+ B- B B+ F F F F F 50% 9% 41% F F F A+ B F+ C- F D-
0.95 56% 38% 17% -9 -3 0.78 17% 0.6 .10 7% .42 79% .33 1.33 70% 60% 45% +15 +2 1.37 42% 0.5 .23 15% .33 80% .26
Jan
15		 Northern Arizona B- F C- A+ D- 37% 21% 42% D D- D- A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ C B F C C- 48% 17% 35% F D+ F A+ C+ B+ C+ F C-
1.25 37% 36% 45% -1 0 1.00 27% 2.0 .55 11% .34 90% .30 1.04 52% 63% 35% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.6 .21 20% .24 77% .19
Jan
17		 Northern Colorado C+ A D+ C- C+ 26% 27% 47% F C B- C B- B A+ D+ A+ C- F C- A- D+ 41% 16% 43% D+ D+ B+ B- B C+ B F C+
1.16 69% 35% 31% 0 -2 0.98 30% 1.2 .34 10% .47 74% .35 1.11 77% 40% 30% +5 +1 1.14 24% 1.0 .24 17% .20 85% .17
Jan
22		 Idaho C- D F F F 52% 31% 17% C+ F A B+ A B+ F A+ C+ D- F A+ F F 37% 8% 56% D- F C+ B B- C+ B- F C-
1.06 53% 28% 10% -12 0 0.78 35% 1.2 .42 13% .27 100% .27 1.20 68% 0% 45% +10 +2 1.25 26% 0.9 .23 17% .27 88% .23
Jan
24		 Eastern Washington D C- F D F 41% 18% 41% C- F F A+ D+ D A+ A+ A+ D+ C- A+ A A 44% 14% 42% F B+ D+ F F D- D+ F F+
1.03 56% 14% 31% -7 +1 0.90 19% 1.8 .35 18% .53 86% .45 1.16 59% 14% 29% -6 +1 0.92 33% 2.0 .67 15% .33 83% .27
Jan
29		 Montana St. B- C+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 30% 30% D- A+ F F F C+ D B- D+ D+ A+ F F C 26% 20% 54% C- C D- C+ D+ B- F+ A- D
1.16 59% 63% 50% +15 -1 1.30 11% 0.7 .07 15% .23 79% .18 1.11 29% 55% 41% +2 -1 1.04 34% 1.0 .34 18% .32 68% .22
Jan
31		 Montana B+ A+ F A+ A+ 36% 21% 43% C A+ D- F F B- A C+ A D+ A+ F D- A 59% 4% 37% F B F F F B- F+ C+ F+
1.19 79% 9% 48% +11 0 1.23 24% 0.5 .12 14% .39 71% .27 1.09 45% 50% 39% -5 +4 1.00 35% 1.6 .56 22% .37 76% .28
Feb
2		 Weber St. A A F+ A+ A+ 42% 21% 38% C- A+ D F F D+ A+ B+ A+ D D+ F+ A C 47% 12% 42% C- C C+ F F D B- F+ C
1.33 75% 30% 67% +24 0 1.50 25% 0.8 .21 18% .56 78% .44 1.15 61% 43% 28% -2 +2 1.02 30% 1.4 .43 14% .31 76% .24
Feb
7		 Portland St. C+ F F A+ D+ 33% 26% 41% D- D+ F+ C+ D A+ A+ A A+ D A+ C- A+ A+ 47% 16% 37% D+ A+ F F F F F F F
1.07 40% 17% 42% -6 -1 0.87 21% 1.0 .21 12% .50 83% .41 1.08 42% 38% 21% -15 +1 0.75 44% 1.2 .51 15% .45 77% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.4 0.9 0.3 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.6 3.2 1.3 5.1 3rd
4th 0.3 6.0 3.8 0.2 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 5.2 10.1 0.7 16.1 5th
6th 2.2 12.7 3.0 0.0 17.8 6th
7th 0.8 11.2 8.8 0.2 21.0 7th
8th 0.6 8.3 11.5 1.3 21.6 8th
9th 1.7 3.7 0.4 5.8 9th
10th 0.6 0.2 0.8 10th
Total 3.0 13.0 25.2 28.3 19.9 8.1 2.3 0.3 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 3.8% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.3% 11.5% 11.5% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 2.3% 11.2% 11.2% 15.6 0.1 0.2 2.1
10-8 8.1% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.6 7.5
9-9 19.9% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.9 19.0
8-10 28.3% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.7 27.5
7-11 25.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 24.9
6-12 13.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.9
5-13 3.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.9
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 16.0 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.6%