San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +12.3 43
Expected Predictive Rating +12.1 50
Pace 70.7 121
Improvement +2.9 69

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- #95 B- B- C C+ D
Defense A- #14 B+ B+ A C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 207 67% 23 +2.9 84
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 39 36% 256 +2.5 63
Three Pointers 34% 323 38% 37 -1.9 250
1st FG Attempt 1.09 81 +3.5 79
Second Chance 32.0% 139 1.10 80 0.35 95
Turnovers 16.9% 176
Freethrows 0.31 164 75% 84 0.24 130
Total Offense +3.1 95

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 354 53% 55 +7.0 13
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 224 30% 6 +2.2 30
Three Pointers 52% 5 31% 67 -3.6 322
1st FG Attempt 0.91 37 +5.7 37
Second Chance 27.3% 71 0.84 10 0.23 20
Turnovers 22.0% 9
Freethrows 0.30 175 73% 218 0.22 171
Total Defense +9.2 14

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.1 315 -0.5 91
Shot Type Accuracy +4.7 50 -5.1 32
Possession Length 15.9 50 18.0 297
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 71 0.12 39
Improvement -2.3 #304 +5.2 #10

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 2% 3% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59% 63% 47%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 46% 50% 34%
Average Seed 9.6 9.5 10.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 45% 52% 25%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four14% 14% 14%
First Round52% 56% 40%
Second Round21% 24% 14%
Sweet Sixteen4% 5% 2%
Elite Eight1% 1% 1%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Nevada (Home) - 74.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 33 - 6
Quad 26 - 29 - 8
Quad 37 - 116 - 9
Quad 46 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 251 Long Beach St. W 77 - 45 96% +13  86% 1 - 0 A+ +24 D+ -4 D A+ F+ A+ +27 A+ A- A+
 Sun, Nov 9 250 Idaho St. W 73 - 57 96% +11  99% 2 - 0 B +8 C +1 A+ F F A- +9 C A- A+
 Tue, Nov 18 135 Troy L 107 - 108 2OT 89% -3  20% 2 - 1 C- -2 B +7 B- A F D- -9 B- D- D
 Mon, Nov 24 1 Michigan L 54 - 94 11% -18  4% 2 - 2 D- -14 F -12 C- F F+ C+ +1 B D B
 Tue, Nov 25 80 Oregon W 97 - 80 70% +10  88% 3 - 2 A+ +24 A+ +24 A+ A+ F C -0 D A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 42 Baylor L 81 - 91 49% -4  18% 3 - 3 C+ +3 B+ +8 A- D- B D -6 D- A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 3 91 Utah Valley W 77 - 66 82% +6  87% 4 - 3 B+ +13 B- +4 C A- B A +10 B A- A+
 Wed, Dec 10 196 Lamar W 89 - 71 94% +10  82% 5 - 3 B+ +13 B- +4 B- C+ C B+ +7 C- A A+
 Wed, Dec 17 349 Air Force W 81 - 58 99% +8  82% 6 - 3 1 - 0 B- +7 B+ +8 B A+ D C+ +2 B- D- B-
 Sat, Dec 20 2 Arizona L 45 - 68 13% -5  42% 6 - 4 C+ +2 F -12 F D- A+ A +11 A+ C+ B
 Tue, Dec 30 236 @San Jose St. W 81 - 68 89% +4  87% 7 - 4 2 - 0 B+ +12 C +1 B- A F+ A +11 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 58 Boise St. W 110 - 107 3OT 72% +6  64% 8 - 4 3 - 0 B +9 B +7 B+ A B- C+ +2 C+ A+ B
 Tue, Jan 6 66 @Nevada W 73 - 68 54% -2  36% 9 - 4 4 - 0 A- +16 B+ +9 C+ A+ D- A- +8 A+ D C+
 Sat, Jan 10 140 Fresno St. W 71 - 52 90% +15  99% 10 - 4 5 - 0 A- +17 D- -7 F A+ A A+ +23 A+ A+ A
 Wed, Jan 14 106 @Wyoming W 74 - 57 69% +11  80% 11 - 4 6 - 0 A+ +24 B +6 B C- A A+ +19 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 49 New Mexico W 83 - 79 66% +3  72% 12 - 4 7 - 0 B+ +12 C+ +3 A- C- C- A- +8 A- C+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 68 @Grand Canyon L 69 - 70 54% -2  24% 12 - 5 7 - 1 B +10 C+ +2 D+ C A A- +8 B- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 124 @UNLV W 82 - 71 75% +4  59% 13 - 5 8 - 1 A- +16 A- +10 A+ F D+ B+ +7 D B+ B
 Wed, Jan 28 103 Colorado St. W 73 - 50 84% +10  77% 14 - 5 9 - 1 A+ +25 B +7 A- B+ F A+ +21 A+ B A+
 Sat, Jan 31 35 @Utah St. L 66 - 71 31% +2  66% 14 - 6 9 - 2 B+ +12 D- -7 C F A- A+ +19 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Feb 3 106 Wyoming W 72 - 63 85% +7  83% 15 - 6 10 - 2 B +10 C- -1 F+ A+ B A +11 A B+ A-
 Sat, Feb 7 349 @Air Force W 88 - 54 97% +20  89% 16 - 6 11 - 2 A+ +24 A- +10 A F+ A+ A+ +14 C A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 14 66 Nevada W 74 - 67 74%
 Tue, Feb 17 68 Grand Canyon W 73 - 66 75%
 Sat, Feb 21 103 @Colorado St. W 72 - 67 66%
 Wed, Feb 25 35 Utah St. W 74 - 73 53%
 Sat, Feb 28 49 @New Mexico L 74 - 76 43%
 Tue, Mar 3 58 @Boise St. L 71 - 72 50%
 Fri, Mar 6 124 UNLV W 83 - 70 88%
Totals 21 - 8 16 - 4 +12 B- +3 B- B- C A- +9 B+ B+ A



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- A- D+ B B 37% 29% 34% D B- C+ B- B- C C B- C+ A- B A B B+ 29% 19% 52% B- B+ B A B+ A C C- C
1.13 67% 36% 38% +5 -1 1.09 32% 1.1 .35 17% .31 75% .24 0.95 53% 30% 31% -5 0 0.91 27% 0.8 .23 22% .30 73% .23
Nov
4		 Long Beach St. D+ F+ F A+ D- 43% 20% 37% C+ D B+ A+ A+ F+ D+ C- D+ A+ A- A A+ A+ 37% 22% 41% F+ A+ D- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+
1.08 50% 0% 47% -3 0 0.96 34% 1.5 .51 21% .34 74% .25 0.63 50% 27% 20% -14 0 0.73 32% 0.6 .18 29% .10 40% .04
Nov
9		 Idaho St. C A+ F B+ A+ 46% 20% 35% C+ A+ D- F F F F D+ F A- D- A+ C+ C+ 40% 12% 49% D+ C D+ A+ A- A+ C- C+ C-
1.18 90% 33% 38% +16 +1 1.35 24% 0.6 .14 19% .24 75% .18 0.92 65% 20% 33% 0 +1 1.05 35% 0.7 .23 31% .33 71% .23
Nov
18		 Troy B A- C- A B+ 29% 38% 33% F B- A+ C A F A+ C+ A+ D- C+ F+ B C 31% 23% 45% A+ B- D+ D- D- D F C- F
1.19 67% 40% 41% +7 -3 1.10 45% 1.1 .48 22% .69 71% .49 1.21 55% 47% 31% -1 -1 0.98 36% 1.1 .40 15% .56 74% .42
Nov
24		 Michigan F F D- B C+ 18% 45% 36% F C- C+ F F F+ B+ A A C+ D+ F B- B 38% 7% 55% B- B C- D D B C+ B+ B
0.71 30% 28% 35% -9 -5 0.75 26% 0.3 .07 23% .27 81% .22 1.24 67% 50% 32% +3 +2 1.11 41% 1.5 .59 17% .35 68% .24
Nov
25		 Oregon A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 29% 31% 40% D A+ A A A+ F F A+ F+ C A+ F F D 36% 12% 52% C- D C+ A+ A+ B- D F F
1.38 93% 69% 52% +31 -2 1.60 40% 1.1 .45 21% .16 89% .14 1.14 39% 50% 46% +4 +1 1.12 35% 0.7 .25 18% .38 82% .31
Nov
26		 Baylor B+ A D- A B+ 31% 27% 42% A A- F B- D- B B- A B+ D D- F+ C- D+ 43% 12% 45% F D- A A- A+ D+ F C F
1.15 71% 33% 39% +6 -1 1.11 19% 1.0 .19 14% .28 82% .23 1.29 71% 50% 36% +9 +1 1.22 30% 1.0 .30 13% .49 73% .36
Dec
3		 Utah Valley B- A- F B- B- 35% 35% 29% F C B+ B+ A- B A+ B+ A+ A D+ A+ D B- 31% 16% 53% A B B B+ A- A+ C B- C+
1.10 65% 29% 36% 0 -2 0.98 36% 1.2 .42 19% .49 79% .38 0.94 64% 0% 38% -1 0 1.00 32% 1.0 .32 27% .29 67% .20
Dec
10		 Lamar B- A+ D A+ A- 31% 37% 31% F B- B+ D- C+ C A+ B+ A+ B+ A+ A+ F C- 15% 25% 60% C C- A+ B A A+ F D+ F
1.17 75% 32% 44% +8 -3 1.12 36% 0.9 .33 17% .49 74% .36 0.93 38% 15% 44% 0 -2 0.98 24% 0.9 .22 24% .34 75% .26
Dec
17		 Air Force B+ B- D- A B- 47% 18% 35% B B A A- A+ D F+ C- D- C+ B+ C B B 35% 8% 58% D+ B- C+ F D- B- D+ F F+
1.27 65% 33% 41% +6 +1 1.16 39% 1.2 .48 17% .25 69% .17 0.91 50% 33% 30% -6 +1 0.93 21% 1.5 .32 23% .33 75% .25
Dec
20		 Arizona F A- F F F 30% 44% 26% D- F C F D- A+ A+ A- A+ A A- F A- A+ 24% 31% 44% A+ A+ F A+ C+ B F A- F
0.72 60% 18% 8% -18 -4 0.58 24% 0.4 .10 13% .35 74% .25 1.08 55% 50% 30% 0 -2 0.98 53% 0.7 .37 17% .52 67% .35
Dec
30		 San Jose St. C D+ D+ A+ B 46% 30% 24% D- B- B A- A F+ A+ C- A+ A A+ D+ A+ A+ 32% 21% 47% D- A+ C D+ C- A+ F F F
1.11 57% 36% 55% +6 -1 1.13 39% 1.4 .54 22% .46 73% .33 0.93 40% 40% 23% -13 -1 0.74 33% 1.1 .36 25% .44 92% .40
Jan
3		 Boise St. B C- A A+ B+ 44% 24% 32% B- B+ C- A+ A B- A+ D+ A- C+ D- C C+ C+ 30% 15% 55% B+ C+ B A+ A+ B C- F F+
1.15 55% 50% 43% +6 0 1.14 20% 1.8 .35 15% .39 66% .26 1.12 67% 36% 33% +2 0 1.06 30% 0.7 .21 18% .39 87% .34
Jan
6		 Nevada B+ A+ A+ F B 32% 32% 36% F+ C+ A+ A+ A+ D- B D+ B- A- D+ A+ A+ A+ 20% 29% 51% A A+ C+ F D C+ C+ F D-
1.14 71% 50% 19% 0 -2 0.98 40% 1.6 .63 20% .37 68% .25 1.06 60% 20% 27% -10 -2 0.76 33% 1.3 .44 14% .36 90% .33
Jan
10		 Fresno St. D- C F F F 34% 20% 46% C- F C+ A+ A+ A F+ B- D- A+ A+ A B+ A+ 26% 19% 54% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ F A+
0.96 60% 25% 15% -15 0 0.71 30% 1.8 .53 15% .19 75% .14 0.70 40% 27% 29% -11 -1 0.79 13% 0.0 .00 23% .12 100% .12
Jan
14		 Wyoming B D- A+ A+ B 50% 17% 33% C+ B F A+ C- A F A F A+ A+ A+ B A+ 32% 4% 64% D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C C- A B-
1.12 50% 56% 41% +3 +1 1.10 17% 1.2 .20 12% .24 79% .19 0.87 38% 0% 31% -11 +2 0.84 24% 0.6 .13 17% .35 68% .24
Jan
17		 New Mexico C+ A+ C- A- A+ 22% 47% 31% F A- D+ C C- C- A+ C A+ A- D- A+ D B+ 28% 19% 54% A A- A F C+ A+ D B C-
1.06 91% 38% 38% +9 -5 1.10 24% 1.0 .24 20% .48 73% .35 1.01 67% 0% 38% -1 -1 0.98 24% 1.2 .29 22% .34 71% .25
Jan
21		 Grand Canyon C+ C- B+ F C- 35% 37% 28% D- D+ B- D+ C A C A+ B A- A+ A+ F B- 40% 18% 42% C B- A A+ A+ A+ F D+ F
0.98 53% 45% 13% -8 -2 0.81 29% 1.0 .29 14% .31 84% .26 0.99 39% 13% 47% -4 0 0.96 26% 0.7 .17 24% .52 79% .41
Jan
24		 UNLV A- A+ F A+ A+ 30% 40% 30% F A+ F A F D+ A A+ A+ B+ F B- C F+ 27% 29% 44% A+ D A+ C B+ B D+ A+ B
1.21 92% 24% 62% +17 -3 1.30 14% 1.3 .19 19% .47 85% .40 1.05 92% 38% 35% +10 -2 1.18 24% 0.9 .21 19% .40 55% .22
Jan
28		 Colorado St. B A+ D A+ A+ 30% 41% 30% F A- A+ D- B+ F A- A A A+ F B+ A+ A+ 8% 25% 68% A+ A+ C A- B A+ C B+ B-
1.20 85% 33% 46% +11 -3 1.18 41% 1.0 .41 20% .35 76% .27 0.82 100% 30% 22% -11 -3 0.75 32% 0.9 .29 28% .32 71% .23
Jan
31		 Utah St. D- F+ A+ F+ C- 38% 19% 42% B- C F F F A- D+ B+ C A+ A F A+ A+ 50% 7% 43% D A+ C A+ A+ A+ F A+ C
0.88 45% 60% 27% -5 0 0.92 16% 0.7 .11 17% .29 78% .22 0.94 50% 50% 25% -9 +3 0.89 38% 0.6 .23 24% .40 57% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Wyoming C- A C F D 30% 30% 40% F F+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ F+ A+ A A+ C B- A 29% 16% 56% A- A B- B+ B+ A- F C F
1.07 69% 38% 18% -6 -2 0.86 39% 1.4 .54 15% .63 64% .40 0.94 38% 43% 32% -6 0 0.89 33% 0.8 .28 21% .49 77% .38
Feb
7		 Air Force A- A+ A+ C- A+ 36% 33% 31% D- A F A F+ A+ F C F A+ C- A+ C C 39% 14% 48% C C A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ D+ B-
1.25 86% 53% 33% +15 -2 1.28 16% 1.3 .20 9% .22 71% .16 0.77 59% 17% 33% -3 +1 0.98 14% 0.8 .10 31% .25 67% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 5.1 17.5 17.0 5.0 44.8 1st
2nd 0.3 7.1 19.8 11.6 1.0 39.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 7.1 1.3 10.2 3rd
4th 0.3 2.6 0.8 3.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 1.1 5.3 15.2 26.2 29.1 18.0 5.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 5.0    5.0
17-3 94.2% 17.0    12.3 4.7
16-4 60.2% 17.5    7.1 9.8 0.6
15-5 19.3% 5.1    0.4 2.5 1.9 0.4
14-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 44.8% 44.8 24.7 17.0 2.5 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 5.0% 93.2% 35.5% 57.7% 7.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.3 89.5%
17-3 18.0% 82.8% 31.6% 51.3% 9.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.1 4.8 3.9 1.5 3.1 74.9%
16-4 29.1% 66.6% 25.9% 40.7% 9.9 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.1 7.5 5.9 0.0 9.7 54.9%
15-5 26.2% 49.2% 20.0% 29.2% 10.3 0.0 0.4 1.6 4.7 6.1 0.0 13.3 36.5%
14-6 15.2% 35.9% 15.3% 20.6% 10.6 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.7 0.0 9.7 24.3%
13-7 5.3% 20.7% 11.3% 9.4% 10.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.0 4.2 10.6%
12-8 1.1% 13.4% 10.7% 2.7% 10.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0%
11-9 0.1% 0.0 0.1
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 58.6% 23.3% 35.3% 9.6 41.4 46.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 5.5 2.2 12.4 36.0 32.6 14.0 2.2 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 92.2% 7.9 7.8 24.3 33.0 21.4 5.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4% 89.4% 8.3 0.7 3.5 15.6 30.5 26.2 10.6 2.1