St. Thomas
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +2.5 123
Expected Predictive Rating +2.8 116
Pace 70.6 126
Improvement +2.4 88

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #108 B+ F B C B+
Defense C #168 C D+ C+ B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 106 68% 16 +6.0 17
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% 346 32% 341 -4.5 357
Three Pointers 48% 42 36% 96 +5.1 34
1st FG Attempt 1.15 30 +6.6 29
Second Chance 19.9% 361 0.92 311 0.18 363
Turnovers 14.7% 48
Freethrows 0.30 191 71% 231 0.22 199
Total Offense +2.4 108

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 113 62% 284 -3.2 289
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 288 35% 91 +1.8 56
Three Pointers 42% 158 32% 94 +0.9 141
1st FG Attempt 1.03 199 -0.5 197
Second Chance 29.7% 147 1.17 343 0.35 270
Turnovers 18.0% 116
Freethrows 0.27 72 74% 292 0.20 101
Total Defense +0.1 168

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.5 22 +0.6 289
Shot Type Accuracy +4.8 46 -0.1 179
Possession Length 17.2 155 17.0 135
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 172 0.15 103
Improvement +2.8 #55 -0.4 #210

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41% 43% 38%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 51% 62% 31%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round41% 43% 38%
Second Round2% 3% 2%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Away) - 66.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 36 - 36 - 6
Quad 416 - 223 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 40 @St. Mary's L 58 - 84 11% -11  3% 0 - 1 D -10 D -4 A F C D- -8 F+ B+ C+
 Sat, Nov 8 341 Army W 83 - 76 94% +11  98% 1 - 1 D -8 C +1 C- C+ A D- -9 F+ C+ D+
 Mon, Nov 10 125 @Washington St. L 71 - 81 40% -15  0% 1 - 2 D+ -5 D+ -3 B- F B- C- -2 B- F A-
 Thu, Nov 13 244 Green Bay W 80 - 61 83% +19  99% 2 - 2 B+ +11 D+ -3 B+ F C+ A+ +15 B+ C A
 Sat, Nov 15 230 @Southeast Missouri St. W 84 - 72 62% +13  99% 3 - 2 B+ +11 C+ +2 A+ F D A- +8 B C C
 Fri, Nov 21 175 Northern Colorado W 73 - 72 63% -5  2% 4 - 2 C +0 D- -7 D+ C+ D- B+ +7 B F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 210 Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 88 70% +1  56% 4 - 3 D -11 D+ -2 F+ D+ A+ D- -8 C- C- D
 Sun, Nov 23 206 @Portland W 76 - 66 59% +5  95% 5 - 3 B +10 C +0 C+ D+ A A- +10 C F+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 162 @Montana St. L 74 - 82 49% -1  32% 5 - 4 D+ -5 C+ +3 A+ F F D- -9 C- D+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 232 Weber St. W 88 - 65 81% +18  97% 6 - 4 A- +16 B +7 A B B A- +9 B+ C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 211 @UNC Asheville W 80 - 59 59% +13  87% 7 - 4 A +21 B+ +9 A D- B+ A+ +13 A- D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 293 UC Riverside W 92 - 78 89% +7  67% 8 - 4 C+ +3 A +13 A+ D- A+ F+ -9 F+ D+ C
 Sun, Jan 4 257 Denver W 92 - 88 85% +3  77% 9 - 4 1 - 0 C- -4 B- +5 C+ D B+ F+ -9 D+ F C+
 Wed, Jan 7 281 South Dakota W 99 - 86 87% +15  94% 10 - 4 2 - 0 C+ +3 A +13 A+ D A- F+ -11 F D A-
 Sat, Jan 10 337 @Oral Roberts W 82 - 71 84% +2  68% 11 - 4 3 - 0 C+ +3 B+ +8 B- F A+ D+ -5 D- C- F
 Thu, Jan 15 288 @North Dakota W 91 - 80 75% +5  83% 12 - 4 4 - 0 B- +7 B+ +8 A+ F C- C- -2 D+ F A
 Sat, Jan 17 146 @North Dakota St. L 65 - 68 45% -3  13% 12 - 5 4 - 1 C +1 F+ -9 C- F D A +10 B- A- B
 Thu, Jan 22 193 South Dakota St. W 74 - 69 77% -1  35% 13 - 5 5 - 1 C -0 D+ -4 B- D+ F B- +4 C C+ B
 Sat, Jan 24 281 @South Dakota W 90 - 78 73% +2  56% 14 - 5 6 - 1 B +8 A +13 A- D+ B- D+ -4 C D F
 Thu, Jan 29 288 North Dakota L 80 - 81 88% +2  65% 14 - 6 6 - 2 D- -11 C- -1 C F A+ F+ -10 F D+ D-
 Sun, Feb 1 357 UMKC W 99 - 64 96% +23  94% 15 - 6 7 - 2 A- +17 A +12 A+ C- C+ B- +3 A+ F+ C-
 Wed, Feb 4 193 @South Dakota St. W 77 - 62 56% +5  66% 16 - 6 8 - 2 A- +16 A +11 A F A+ B+ +6 C- A+ D
 Sat, Feb 7 337 Oral Roberts W 92 - 75 93% +5  68% 17 - 6 9 - 2 C+ +3 B- +4 A F A+ C- -2 B- F D
 Thu, Feb 12 249 @Nebraska Omaha W 79 - 75 66%
 Sat, Feb 14 357 @UMKC W 82 - 68 92%
 Sat, Feb 21 257 @Denver W 86 - 81 68%
 Thu, Feb 26 146 North Dakota St. W 78 - 73 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 249 Nebraska Omaha W 82 - 72 84%
Totals 21 - 7 13 - 3 +2 C+ +2 B+ F B C +0 C D+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ A- D- B- B+ 41% 10% 48% B+ B+ F D F B C C- C C D+ B- B- C 41% 17% 42% D+ C C+ D- D+ C+ B- D+ B-
1.12 68% 32% 36% +5 +1 1.15 20% 0.9 .18 15% .30 71% .22 1.09 62% 35% 32% 0 +1 1.03 30% 1.2 .35 18% .27 74% .23
Nov
3		 St. Mary's D A A+ F A- 51% 8% 41% A+ A F F F C D- F F D- F B- D F 33% 19% 48% C+ F+ C+ A- B+ C+ C- B- C-
0.89 65% 75% 24% 0 +3 1.08 14% 0.0 .00 15% .18 30% .05 1.29 81% 33% 39% +11 0 1.23 37% 0.9 .33 17% .35 79% .28
Nov
8		 Army C A+ D+ F D- 53% 6% 42% A+ C- D+ A C+ A B+ C- B D- D+ F C F 41% 9% 50% D+ F+ C- B C+ D+ C+ F C-
1.21 75% 33% 18% -1 +3 1.06 29% 1.4 .40 10% .40 72% .29 1.11 59% 60% 33% +2 +2 1.09 31% 0.8 .25 16% .24 79% .19
Nov
10		 Washington St. D+ A+ F C- C+ 35% 12% 54% B+ B- F A+ F B- D+ A C C- C- F B+ B 42% 10% 48% D- B- C- F F A- C F F+
1.03 78% 0% 32% +1 +1 1.06 3% 3.0 .10 13% .27 81% .22 1.18 65% 60% 30% +3 +2 1.10 31% 2.0 .62 22% .30 94% .28
Nov
13		 Green Bay D+ B D B B- 45% 5% 50% A+ B+ F F F C+ F A+ F A+ C- A+ A A 49% 14% 37% D- B+ B- D+ C A A A+ A+
1.14 65% 33% 38% +6 +2 1.19 10% 0.7 .06 13% .16 90% .15 0.87 58% 14% 28% -7 +2 0.92 22% 1.1 .25 21% .25 57% .14
Nov
15		 Southeast Missouri St. C+ A+ F A+ A+ 49% 11% 40% B A+ F A+ F D B- A+ A- A- C+ A- A- B 46% 23% 32% C+ B A+ F C C A+ A A+
1.10 82% 0% 44% +14 +2 1.33 5% 2.0 .09 21% .43 85% .36 0.94 54% 31% 28% -6 0 0.89 18% 2.0 .35 17% .19 58% .11
Nov
21		 Northern Colorado D- D+ F D+ D 48% 9% 43% A- D+ B- D+ C+ D- F+ F F B+ C- F A+ A- 47% 9% 44% F B B- F F A+ F F+ F
1.00 54% 20% 30% -6 +2 0.94 30% 1.1 .32 15% .26 63% .16 0.99 62% 50% 25% -3 +2 1.00 26% 1.7 .44 25% .38 81% .31
Nov
22		 Cal St. Fullerton D+ B- C F F 41% 13% 46% B- F+ D- B- D+ A+ D- A+ B- D- F+ A+ B- C 39% 9% 52% F+ C- A- F C- D D F F
1.05 64% 38% 21% -6 +1 0.92 23% 1.1 .26 12% .25 94% .24 1.15 67% 20% 32% 0 +1 1.06 19% 1.3 .25 13% .38 92% .35
Nov
23		 Portland C B F D+ C 34% 4% 63% A- C+ F A+ D+ A C- B+ C+ A- C+ B C- C 47% 18% 35% D+ C D- D- F+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.06 63% 0% 31% -2 +2 1.02 22% 1.4 .30 13% .29 78% .22 0.92 58% 33% 33% -1 +1 1.02 34% 1.3 .45 28% .14 57% .08
Dec
3		 Montana St. C+ A+ D- C- A+ 38% 6% 56% B+ A+ F F F F B- F C D- A- B- F C- 27% 17% 56% D C- B- F D+ F F C- F
1.09 89% 33% 32% +10 +2 1.26 19% 0.4 .07 21% .30 69% .20 1.21 46% 38% 41% +2 0 1.06 26% 1.3 .34 10% .48 76% .36
Dec
7		 Weber St. B A+ A+ C- A- 47% 6% 47% A- A F A+ B B D B D+ A- B A C+ B+ 51% 17% 32% C B+ C C C A+ D+ A+ C+
1.25 76% 67% 32% +9 +3 1.25 19% 2.2 .41 14% .28 76% .22 0.92 50% 25% 33% -7 +1 0.91 32% 1.0 .32 24% .38 60% .23
Dec
13		 UNC Asheville B+ B- F A+ A- 57% 10% 33% A A C- F D- B+ A F C A+ C B+ A+ A 40% 32% 28% F A- C D D+ A+ A A A
1.20 62% 20% 47% +7 +3 1.22 30% 0.7 .21 13% .42 54% .22 0.88 58% 33% 23% -6 -1 0.87 29% 1.1 .32 24% .26 62% .16
Dec
20		 UC Riverside A B+ A+ A+ A+ 50% 20% 30% C+ A+ F A+ D- A+ D+ A+ B- F+ F A+ F F 43% 22% 35% C F+ C D- D+ C C+ F D-
1.33 67% 55% 50% +15 +1 1.33 9% 2.5 .22 9% .30 84% .25 1.13 71% 18% 41% +5 0 1.12 27% 1.0 .27 19% .28 94% .27
Jan
4		 Denver B- F+ F A+ C 45% 4% 52% A- C+ C+ F D B+ A+ F B+ F+ C- B- F+ C- 38% 22% 40% D- D+ C- F F C+ F F F
1.29 52% 0% 45% +4 +3 1.16 36% 0.9 .32 10% .45 59% .26 1.23 58% 36% 40% +3 0 1.08 30% 1.7 .50 15% .50 87% .43
Jan
7		 South Dakota A A+ F+ A+ A+ 54% 11% 36% B- A+ F A+ D A- B C+ B+ F+ C- D+ F F 38% 20% 42% C+ F C- D- D A- B+ F C-
1.35 77% 33% 45% +15 +2 1.38 19% 1.8 .33 12% .33 76% .25 1.17 58% 40% 48% +9 0 1.20 30% 1.1 .33 22% .30 94% .28
Jan
10		 Oral Roberts B+ A F+ F C+ 60% 6% 33% A B- C- F F A+ A+ B- A+ D+ F A- B+ F+ 37% 20% 43% B D- B- F+ C- F F A+ C
1.24 69% 33% 25% +2 +3 1.13 31% 0.6 .19 9% .52 74% .38 1.07 72% 30% 29% 0 0 1.02 24% 1.1 .26 14% .39 55% .21
Jan
15		 North Dakota B+ B+ F A+ A+ 38% 5% 57% B- A+ F A+ F C- A+ F A- C- B F C C- 56% 8% 36% F D+ D+ F F A F F F
1.25 69% 0% 67% +30 +2 1.67 13% 2.0 .25 21% .59 56% .33 1.10 50% 50% 33% -4 +3 1.00 30% 1.6 .48 21% .52 77% .40
Jan
17		 North Dakota St. F+ C- A+ C- D+ 31% 6% 63% B+ C- F F F D B+ F C+ A F A+ D+ B- 30% 30% 41% B B- D A+ A- B C B+ C+
0.93 60% 67% 33% +2 +1 1.08 19% 0.3 .06 22% .31 65% .20 0.98 75% 13% 36% -1 -2 0.96 36% 0.6 .21 19% .27 67% .18
Jan
22		 South Dakota St. D+ A- F C C+ 42% 4% 53% A B- D- B- D+ F A+ C+ A+ B- B+ F B C+ 46% 15% 38% D C B- C C+ B B A+ A+
1.06 68% 0% 33% +2 +2 1.11 23% 1.1 .26 20% .43 75% .32 0.99 50% 75% 30% 0 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 19% .23 46% .11
Jan
24		 South Dakota A B+ A- A- A- 45% 8% 47% C+ A- B- F D+ B- A+ B- A+ D+ D+ A+ B C+ 46% 17% 37% D C A F D F D+ D D
1.30 68% 50% 39% +9 +2 1.24 36% 1.0 .36 14% .44 77% .34 1.12 60% 22% 30% -4 +1 0.96 20% 1.7 .34 10% .38 79% .30
Jan
29		 North Dakota C- C+ A+ F+ D+ 55% 10% 35% B+ C D- F F A+ C+ B- B- F+ D F C F 45% 11% 44% D F B- F D+ D- A B- A-
1.17 63% 60% 29% +3 +3 1.12 29% 0.9 .26 15% .39 74% .29 1.18 60% 67% 33% +4 +2 1.13 26% 1.2 .32 12% .25 67% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 UMKC A A+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 3% 62% B+ A+ D- B C- C+ F A F B- A- A+ A+ A+ 43% 18% 39% F A+ F D F+ C- A- F+ B
1.34 80% 50% 44% +18 +2 1.41 30% 1.1 .33 16% .15 78% .11 0.87 46% 20% 18% -18 +1 0.68 36% 0.9 .34 19% .20 75% .15
Feb
4		 South Dakota St. A A+ A A- A+ 28% 11% 61% C+ A F F F A+ F A D- B+ F F A+ C 39% 7% 54% F C- A A+ A+ D C D C-
1.23 73% 50% 39% +11 0 1.24 10% 0.0 .00 8% .21 83% .17 0.99 78% 100% 20% 0 +2 1.07 21% 0.4 .09 14% .28 73% .21
Feb
7		 Oral Roberts B- A+ A C- A- 54% 12% 35% B A F D- F A+ A+ F A+ C- C+ F A B- 30% 14% 56% C+ B- F D F D B- A B+
1.23 71% 50% 33% +8 +2 1.23 12% 1.0 .12 5% .53 63% .34 1.00 53% 50% 25% -7 0 0.88 34% 1.1 .36 16% .27 65% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 3.5 22.1 25.8 51.4 1st
2nd 1.0 8.3 21.3 16.3 46.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.1 1.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.1 1.7 9.2 24.8 38.4 25.8 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 25.8    18.3 7.5
13-3 57.6% 22.1    7.2 14.9 0.0
12-4 14.2% 3.5    0.2 2.6 0.7
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total 51.4% 51.4 25.6 25.0 0.8



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 25.8% 49.4% 49.4% 12.7 0.1 5.0 6.5 1.1 13.0
13-3 38.4% 41.8% 41.8% 13.3 0.0 1.5 8.6 5.5 0.4 22.4
12-4 24.8% 37.0% 37.0% 13.6 0.3 3.9 4.5 0.5 15.7
11-5 9.2% 29.9% 29.9% 13.9 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.4 6.5
10-6 1.7% 22.8% 22.8% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.3
9-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 41.1% 41.1% 0.0% 13.2 58.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.7% 100.0% 12.7 1.0 39.2 51.2 8.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.3%