VMI
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -16.3 358
Results Rating -17.0 357
Consistency 0.15 163
Pace 67.2 214
Improvement -2.6 279

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 324 F+ D- C+ D+ C+
Defense F 363 F F+ C- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 337 D- 50% 341 -6.7 355
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 320 D 33% 332 -3.2 326
Three Pointers 55% 4 D- 29% 339 +3.2 75
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 146 F+ -6.8 360
1st FG Attempt F+ 0.89 349
Second Chance D 25.2% 317 D 0.93 316 D- 0.23 334
Opponents' Steals C+ 9.1% 151
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 186
Turnovers C+ 16.4% 154
Freethrows D+ 0.28 262 C- 71% 236 D+ 0.20 265
Total Offense D -6.2 324

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D- 37% 332 D 13.3% 314
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 221 F+ 9.0% 347
Three Pointers D- 76% 332 C+ 0.7% 132
Total C- 52% 250 C 5.8% 211


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 300 F 68% 361 +0.8 209
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 252 F 46% 356 +0.5 229
Three Pointers 48% 23 F+ 38% 349 +6.6 359
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 163 F +7.7 364
1st FG Attempt F 1.18 363
Second Chance F 38.4% 363 C- 1.05 215 F+ 0.40 348
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.0% 144
Other Turnovers D- 6.0% 330
Turnovers C- 16.0% 222
Freethrows C 0.30 177 C- 73% 244 C 0.22 183
Total Defense F -10.1 363

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F+ 59% 349 D- 5.4% 351
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 52% 362 B- 6.3% 85
Three Pointers D- 91% 349 B- 1.4% 77
Total F 69% 359 D 3.7% 325

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.9 327 16.2 23
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 324 0.21 315
Consistency 0.13 226 0.12 130
Improvement -0.7 220 -1.9 284

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 359 358 357
Results Rating Rank 359 359 356
Conference Record 1 - 17 1 - 17 1 - 17
Conference Finish 10 10 10
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 80 - 11
Quad 43 - 153 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 336 @Southern Indiana W 78 - 74 25% -3  9% 1 - 0 D+ -5 D- -8 F D- B B- +2 C- C D-
 Sun, Nov 9 46 @Missouri L 68 - 106 1% -11  18% 1 - 1 F -23 D- -7 C+ F F F -13 B F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 293 Jacksonville L 67 - 69 30% -3  11% 1 - 2 D- -13 F+ -10 F A F C- -3 F F A+
 Wed, Nov 19 135 @Richmond L 54 - 87 4% -21  0% 1 - 3 F -28 F -17 D- D+ F F -14 F D C+
 Sat, Nov 22 309 @Stetson L 80 - 99 17% -9  2% 1 - 4 F -25 B- +4 D D+ A+ F -30 F F D-
 Mon, Nov 24 212 Buffalo L 70 - 78 11% -1  38% 1 - 5 D -11 D -6 F A- A+ D -5 C- D B-
 Wed, Nov 26 166 Bowling Green L 48 - 81 8% -22  0% 1 - 6 F -34 F -24 F F D- F -12 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 51 @Central Florida L 57 - 82 1% -9  27% 1 - 7 D -11 F -13 F D+ D C+ +1 A A- D-
 Tue, Dec 9 318 Loyola Maryland W 86 - 70 36% +15  99% 2 - 7 C+ +3 A +13 A- C A+ F+ -8 C F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 243 @Radford L 90 - 97 9% -2  30% 2 - 8 D -9 B+ +9 C A+ D+ F -18 F F B-
 Thu, Jan 1 191 Samford L 58 - 78 15% -4  47% 2 - 9 0 - 1 F -25 F -19 F F D+ D- -7 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 286 Chattanooga W 79 - 71 28% +8  98% 3 - 9 1 - 1 C- -2 C- -2 B- D- F+ C -0 A- D- B-
 Wed, Jan 7 140 @East Tennessee St. L 67 - 81 4% -10  1% 3 - 10 1 - 2 D -10 D+ -3 D- F A+ D- -8 F D+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 186 @Furman L 48 - 69 6% -10  12% 3 - 11 1 - 3 F -20 F -23 F C- F C+ +2 C+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 178 Mercer L 67 - 77 13% -2  22% 3 - 12 1 - 4 D- -14 F+ -9 C+ F C- D -6 A- F A
 Sat, Jan 17 343 The Citadel L 68 - 82 48% -10  4% 3 - 13 1 - 5 F -30 F -13 F+ F C- F -17 F A- B-
 Wed, Jan 21 297 UNC Greensboro L 78 - 85 31% -6  13% 3 - 14 1 - 6 F -18 C- -2 F A A- F -17 D- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 232 @Western Carolina L 58 - 88 8% -12  13% 3 - 15 1 - 7 F -31 F+ -8 F D B- F -29 F F F
 Thu, Jan 29 343 @The Citadel L 56 - 80 27% -12  7% 3 - 16 1 - 8 F -34 F -18 F F D F -18 F A- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 178 @Mercer L 81 - 95 6% -4  12% 3 - 17 1 - 9 D- -12 C +1 C+ F+ B F -13 D+ F D
 Wed, Feb 4 240 Wofford L 67 - 81 20% -12  4% 3 - 18 1 - 10 F -22 F -13 D- F A- F+ -9 F A+ D-
 Sat, Feb 7 140 East Tennessee St. L 70 - 87 9% -10  5% 3 - 19 1 - 11 F -19 D- -7 D+ D+ B- F -12 F F A+
 Wed, Feb 11 297 @UNC Greensboro L 71 - 92 15% -15  1% 3 - 20 1 - 12 F -26 F+ -9 D F D F -17 F D+ D
 Sat, Feb 14 186 Furman L 72 - 90 14% -12  0% 3 - 21 1 - 13 F -23 D -6 C- F A F -17 F F D
 Wed, Feb 18 240 @Wofford L 76 - 82 9% -3  33% 3 - 22 1 - 14 D+ -8 C- -2 F+ C- C- D -6 F D C+
 Sat, Feb 21 232 Western Carolina L 62 - 81 19% -11  0% 3 - 23 1 - 15 F -26 F -13 D F A F -15 D+ D+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 191 @Samford L 61 - 80 6% -2  27% 3 - 24 1 - 16 F -18 F -11 F D D D- -8 F D+ C
 Sat, Feb 28 286 @Chattanooga L 79 - 86 13% -6  6% 3 - 25 1 - 17 D -11 B+ +9 C- B- A+ F -21 F F F
 Fri, Mar 6 297 UNC Greensboro L 75 - 83 22%
Totals 3 - 26 1 - 17 -16 D -6 A F+ C+ F -10 D- C- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D- D D- F+ 31% 24% 55% C+ F+ D D D- C+ D+ C- D+ F F F F+ F 34% 18% 48% C F F C- F+ C- C C- C
1.00 50% 33% 29% -7 0 0.89 25% 0.9 .23 16% .28 71% .20 1.23 68% 46% 38% +8 0 1.18 38% 1.0 .40 16% .30 73% .20
Nov
7		 Southern Indiana D- F C F+ F 41% 14% 46% C+ F D- D- D- B C F+ D+ B- F+ D- A+ C- 33% 20% 48% C- C- C- B- C D- B+ F C+
1.00 46% 38% 30% -8 +1 0.88 28% 0.8 .23 13% .32 68% .22 0.95 60% 42% 21% -8 0 0.85 30% 0.8 .24 14% .25 76% .19
Nov
9		 Missouri D- F A- B B- 6% 17% 77% D+ C+ F F F F A- C+ A- F F+ C A+ B+ 49% 16% 35% D+ B F F F D- F D+ F
0.90 0% 44% 38% +2 -2 1.02 20% 0.3 .05 22% .34 75% .26 1.40 72% 38% 22% 0 +1 1.06 50% 1.8 .88 15% .54 71% .39
Nov
15		 Jacksonville F+ F B C F+ 35% 24% 41% D- F C A+ A F F A+ F C- F B C- F 40% 13% 47% D- F F F F A+ A- A+ A+
1.01 47% 42% 35% -2 -1 0.96 30% 1.4 .43 23% .21 82% .17 1.04 67% 33% 33% +2 +1 1.09 39% 1.3 .52 29% .21 50% .11
Nov
19		 Richmond F D A+ F F 26% 9% 65% A- D- D B- D+ F A+ F C- F C- F F F 30% 26% 44% C- F F+ C+ D C+ A A+ A+
0.82 55% 50% 25% -9 +1 0.86 25% 1.2 .31 24% .40 50% .20 1.32 63% 57% 50% +17 -1 1.33 31% 1.0 .31 15% .25 64% .16
Nov
22		 Stetson B- C- D+ C- D 36% 15% 49% C D C- D+ D+ A+ D+ F+ D- F F F F F 17% 13% 70% C F F F F D- A+ B- A+
1.21 60% 38% 33% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.1 .33 9% .25 67% .17 1.50 89% 57% 50% +24 -1 1.50 35% 1.4 .50 15% .16 67% .11
Nov
24		 Buffalo D D+ B F F 30% 17% 53% D+ F B- A+ A- A+ A- D- B D B+ F F+ C 45% 5% 50% F C- D- C D B- F C- F
1.05 56% 44% 18% -12 0 0.77 36% 1.2 .43 12% .34 70% .24 1.17 50% 50% 40% +1 +2 1.10 31% 1.1 .34 18% .68 76% .51
Nov
26		 Bowling Green F F F F F 40% 5% 56% A- F C+ F F D- A+ B+ A+ F F F F+ F 42% 17% 42% B- F F B- F A+ C+ C C+
0.72 35% 0% 8% -32 +2 0.42 30% 0.5 .14 21% .61 78% .47 1.22 70% 50% 40% +11 +1 1.25 56% 0.8 .42 24% .30 73% .22
Nov
29		 Central Florida F F F F F 27% 12% 61% B- F A F D+ D A D+ A- C+ F A+ A+ A 36% 24% 41% B- A F A+ A- D- C+ F+ C-
0.84 38% 17% 27% -15 0 0.73 36% 0.6 .22 19% .38 71% .27 1.21 95% 14% 17% -3 -1 0.95 56% 0.6 .34 12% .28 82% .23
Dec
9		 Loyola Maryland A C- A+ A+ A 35% 13% 52% B- A- C C C A+ D+ F+ D+ F+ A+ F D+ C 47% 16% 38% C- C F F+ F C+ F A+ D-
1.37 61% 71% 41% +11 +1 1.25 32% 1.2 .39 8% .28 69% .19 1.12 43% 57% 35% -3 +1 0.98 39% 1.1 .45 18% .44 52% .23
Dec
21		 Radford B+ D+ B+ B C+ 38% 19% 44% D+ C D+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F D- F F F 39% 11% 50% D- F F F F B- F F F
1.23 56% 44% 38% +3 0 1.08 30% 1.9 .57 19% .47 89% .42 1.33 65% 60% 45% +14 +1 1.32 40% 1.3 .52 19% .68 80% .54
Jan
1		 Samford F A- D F F 17% 31% 52% F+ F D+ F F D+ F C F+ D- F A+ F F 31% 25% 44% B F D+ A+ A+ D F A+ D
0.86 67% 35% 21% -9 -3 0.78 24% 0.7 .17 15% .21 75% .16 1.16 93% 17% 43% +11 -1 1.23 26% 0.3 .08 12% .46 59% .27
Jan
3		 Chattanooga C- A+ B- C- B- 24% 11% 65% C B- C+ F D- F+ A+ C A+ C D+ A A+ A- 33% 27% 41% B A- C F D- B- F F F
1.14 73% 40% 33% +3 0 1.09 33% 0.8 .28 17% .50 72% .36 1.02 63% 31% 25% -6 -1 0.88 21% 1.4 .29 17% .42 83% .35
Jan
7		 East Tennessee St. D+ D A- F F 42% 13% 44% B- D- C- F F A+ A+ F A- D- F F D- F 43% 23% 34% B- F A- F D+ C- C- D D+
1.01 55% 43% 26% -6 +1 0.92 28% 0.4 .10 9% .45 63% .28 1.22 70% 55% 38% +11 0 1.23 21% 1.6 .33 15% .34 79% .27
Jan
10		 Furman F F F F F 31% 18% 51% C F C D C- F C+ C- C C+ C F+ C+ C 24% 15% 61% A- C+ F C- F A+ F A+ D+
0.73 29% 25% 22% -21 0 0.60 30% 0.9 .28 24% .26 69% .18 1.05 60% 50% 32% 0 0 1.02 49% 1.0 .49 30% .39 56% .22
Jan
15		 Mercer F+ C+ D- A- B- 23% 17% 60% D+ C+ D F F C- F C- F D F D+ A+ A+ 47% 11% 42% F A- F D+ F A F D+ F
1.01 58% 33% 41% +5 -1 1.11 28% 0.5 .13 18% .07 75% .06 1.16 71% 40% 11% -8 +2 0.89 59% 1.0 .62 21% .46 75% .35
Jan
17		 The Citadel F F+ F C F 47% 2% 51% A F+ F C- F C- A+ F+ A+ F B F F F 47% 9% 44% F F F+ A+ A- B- F F F
1.00 52% 0% 35% -3 +3 1.02 18% 1.0 .18 16% .49 64% .32 1.21 50% 75% 47% +9 +2 1.23 32% 0.5 .16 19% .58 84% .49
Jan
21		 UNC Greensboro C- F+ A+ F F 27% 13% 60% C+ F C- A+ A A- A+ F B F A F F F+ 43% 28% 30% C D- F D+ F+ F F C F
1.18 50% 57% 29% -4 0 0.94 29% 1.6 .46 11% .37 59% .22 1.29 45% 46% 50% +4 -1 1.09 33% 1.1 .36 8% .54 70% .38
Jan
24		 Western Carolina F+ C+ F C- F 27% 14% 59% C F F A+ D B- F A F F D+ F F F 41% 11% 48% F+ F F D F F A+ A+ A+
1.00 62% 0% 34% -4 0 0.94 16% 1.4 .22 14% .12 83% .10 1.51 59% 50% 42% +8 +1 1.20 57% 1.1 .63 7% .06 33% .02
Jan
29		 The Citadel F F F D F 36% 14% 50% C- F F F F D F A+ D- F F A- F F 13% 15% 73% B+ F F A+ A- F+ C- A+ B+
0.89 50% 14% 32% -8 +1 0.88 19% 0.7 .14 17% .19 80% .15 1.27 83% 29% 49% +18 -1 1.35 38% 0.4 .16 14% .28 47% .13
Jan
31		 Mercer C C D- C+ C 25% 5% 69% B C+ F C+ F+ B C B+ C+ F D F A- C- 38% 9% 53% F D+ F F F D F D+ F
1.11 57% 33% 37% +2 +1 1.09 21% 1.0 .21 15% .26 81% .21 1.31 65% 80% 29% +2 +1 1.09 43% 1.2 .51 14% .46 76% .35
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Wofford F D+ D- D+ D- 42% 17% 40% C- D- F F F A- C+ D C F+ F A F F 27% 22% 51% A F A- A+ A+ D- F D F
0.99 55% 33% 33% -3 +1 0.98 21% 0.4 .08 12% .32 74% .23 1.20 79% 27% 42% +10 -1 1.20 22% 0.5 .11 12% .40 75% .30
Feb
7		 East Tennessee St. D- F A+ C- D 39% 6% 56% B+ D+ F A+ D+ B- D+ D- D F C- F F F 20% 31% 49% A+ F F F F A+ B+ F B-
0.99 48% 67% 33% -3 +2 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 17% .27 69% .19 1.23 60% 67% 46% +18 -3 1.33 40% 1.3 .52 24% .26 86% .22
Feb
11		 UNC Greensboro F+ D+ F C+ F+ 38% 7% 55% A- D F D F D F B+ F F F F D F 16% 20% 64% B F D C D+ D B D C+
1.03 57% 0% 37% -1 +2 1.04 20% 1.0 .20 16% .15 78% .12 1.33 89% 64% 37% +13 -1 1.25 30% 1.0 .30 13% .32 74% .23
Feb
14		 Furman D F A B- D 28% 4% 69% B+ C- F+ F F A A- A+ A+ F F F D- F 26% 8% 66% C+ F C F F D D- F F
1.01 33% 50% 35% -5 +1 0.94 21% 0.6 .12 10% .31 85% .27 1.27 85% 100% 36% +14 +1 1.32 30% 1.3 .40 17% .34 75% .25
Feb
18		 Wofford C- D C- F+ F 47% 15% 38% C+ F+ D- A C- C- B A+ A+ D F F D- F 31% 4% 64% D F D+ D- D C+ F C F
1.10 52% 38% 30% -5 +1 0.94 23% 1.4 .31 16% .35 95% .33 1.19 71% 100% 38% +11 +2 1.27 30% 1.1 .33 16% .48 71% .35
Feb
21		 Western Carolina F F+ F+ B D 31% 18% 51% C- D F F F A F F F F D- F C+ F+ 21% 26% 53% A+ D+ B+ F D+ F C+ F D-
0.98 50% 33% 38% 0 0 1.02 14% 0.6 .08 11% .20 64% .12 1.28 64% 50% 32% +3 -2 1.04 29% 1.3 .37 5% .28 88% .25
Feb
26		 Samford F A+ F F F 29% 18% 53% B- F C F D D C- F D D- F A+ D- F 29% 10% 60% D- F C+ F D+ C C+ D- C
0.93 71% 22% 23% -8 0 0.86 26% 0.9 .23 15% .27 67% .18 1.22 86% 20% 38% +10 +1 1.23 23% 1.3 .29 14% .34 74% .25
Feb
28		 Chattanooga B+ C- F C D+ 30% 4% 66% B+ C- D A+ B- A+ C- D- D+ F F C F F 25% 26% 49% A- F F F F F A+ C A+
1.25 56% 0% 34% -2 +2 1.02 28% 1.5 .42 2% .34 67% .22 1.36 79% 40% 39% +9 -2 1.18 29% 1.3 .38 3% .13 75% .10



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 100.0 100.0 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.5%
Lose Out 78.5%