VMI
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.4 #349
Expected Predictive Rating -14.1 #346
Pace 68.5 #195
Improvement +0.2 #177

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #311 F D C C C
Defense #351 F F C D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #342 0.96 #357 -7.6 #357
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #292 0.75 #187 -2.1 #288
Three Pointers 54% #7 0.85 #343 +2.1 #109
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #355 -7.6 #356
Freethrows 17.8 #180 69% #287 12.3 #206
Second Chance 27.8% #256 0.95 #299 0.26 #290
Turnovers 16.3% #162
Total Offense -5.4 #311

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #184 1.28 #323 -2.6 #267
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #227 0.87 #330 -0.5 #212
Three Pointers 43% #137 1.11 #308 -2.8 #297
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #339 -5.9 #341
Freethrows 19.1 #259 73% #202 13.8 #263
Second Chance 39.6% #362 1.04 #177 0.41 #347
Turnovers 16.9% #152
Total Defense -7.0 #351

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #183 0.5% #211
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -15.1% #360 10.9% #347
Possession Length 18.7 #315 15.7 #15
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #326 0.22 #327
Improvement -0.9 #228 +1.1 #114

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 83.8% 66.0% 89.1%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Away) - 22.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 30 - 80 - 11
Quad 45 - 126 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 329 @Southern Indiana W 78 - 74 32% -3  1 - 0 -4 -3 F D+ B -1 D+ C+ D
 Sun, Nov 9 50 @Missouri L 68 - 106 2% -11  1 - 1 -24 -5 B F F -17 B+ F F
 Sat, Nov 15 292 Jacksonville L 67 - 69 43% -3  1 - 2 -13 -6 F A+ F -6 F F A+
 Wed, Nov 19 120 @Richmond L 54 - 87 6% -21  1 - 3 -27 -13 F D+ F -16 F D- C-
 Sat, Nov 22 332 @Stetson L 80 - 99 33% -9  1 - 4 -27 +7 D- D+ A+ -35 F F F
 Mon, Nov 24 201 Buffalo L 70 - 78 18% -1  1 - 5 -11 -3 F A A+ -8 C- D+ B+
 Wed, Nov 26 129 Bowling Green L 48 - 81 9% -22  1 - 6 -31 -21 F F D+ -12 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 53 @Central Florida L 57 - 82 2% -9  1 - 7 -11 -9 F D+ D -4 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 324 Loyola Maryland W 86 - 70 52% +15  2 - 7 +3 +15 A- C A+ -10 C F C
 Sun, Dec 21 253 @Radford L 90 - 97 16% -2  2 - 8 -9 +10 C A+ D -19 F F B
 Thu, Jan 1 249 Samford L 58 - 78 33% -4  2 - 9 0 - 1 -28 -19 F F F -10 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 247 Chattanooga W 79 - 71 33% +8  3 - 9 1 - 1 +0 +2 C+ F D -2 A F B
 Wed, Jan 7 135 @East Tennessee St. L 67 - 81 7% -10  3 - 10 1 - 2 -9 +0 F F A+ -10 F D+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 165 @Furman L 48 - 69 9% -10  3 - 11 1 - 3 -19 -20 F D F -0 C F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 149 Mercer L 67 - 77 17% -2  3 - 12 1 - 4 -12 -5 C+ F C- -7 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 351 The Citadel L 68 - 82 62% -10  3 - 13 1 - 5 -30 -11 F F F -19 F A+ C
 Wed, Jan 21 294 UNC Greensboro L 78 - 85 43% -6  3 - 14 1 - 6 -18 +2 F A A- -20 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 289 @Western Carolina L 74 - 82 23%
 Thu, Jan 29 351 @The Citadel L 71 - 74 40%
 Sat, Jan 31 149 @Mercer L 72 - 88 6%
 Wed, Feb 4 215 Wofford L 74 - 80 28%
 Sat, Feb 7 135 East Tennessee St. L 67 - 78 15%
 Wed, Feb 11 294 @UNC Greensboro L 73 - 81 23%
 Sat, Feb 14 165 Furman L 68 - 77 21%
 Wed, Feb 18 215 @Wofford L 71 - 83 13%
 Sat, Feb 21 289 Western Carolina L 77 - 79 42%
 Thu, Feb 26 249 @Samford L 71 - 82 17%
 Sat, Feb 28 247 @Chattanooga L 68 - 79 16%
Totals 5 - 23 3 - 15 -12 -5 F D C -7 F F C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 1.0 0.2 2.6 7th
8th 0.4 3.0 3.4 0.6 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.8 7.4 7.2 1.8 0.0 18.2 9th
10th 8.6 20.5 24.4 14.0 2.9 0.1 70.3 10th
Total 8.6 20.5 26.1 21.7 13.1 6.7 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.2% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
8-10 0.7% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.7
7-11 2.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.3
6-12 6.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.6
5-13 13.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.1
4-14 21.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 21.7
3-15 26.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 26.1
2-16 20.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.5
1-17 8.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.6
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 6.6%