American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
34 Memphis 61.6%   11   2 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 13 - 5 +11.4      +6.9 28 +4.5 61 76.8 30 +20.1 6 0.0 1
73 North Texas 28.3%   2 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 8 12 - 6 +7.8      +1.8 128 +6.0 31 57.5 362 +18.6 10 0.0 1
74 Florida Atlantic 24.3%   1 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 7 +7.8      +5.9 37 +1.9 112 82.2 8 +4.4 108 0.0 1
86 Wichita St. 20.8%   2 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 11 - 7 +6.7      +3.9 73 +2.8 93 70.2 155 +16.3 16 0.0 1
101 UAB 8.3%   2 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 11 10 - 8 +5.0      +5.2 52 -0.2 173 70.8 135 -1.8 225 0.0 1
112 Temple 7.5%   3 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +3.8      +2.5 102 +1.3 127 67.1 251 +7.9 61 0.0 1
120 South Florida 4.4%   1 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 14 8 - 10 +3.1      +1.2 145 +1.9 111 69.3 182 -5.8 277 0.0 1
133 Charlotte 3.0%   2 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 13 8 - 10 +1.7      +2.4 106 -0.7 190 59.0 359 +5.9 89 0.0 1
142 Tulsa 2.6%   2 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 8 - 10 +1.2      +2.2 113 -1.0 203 74.8 56 +2.8 138 0.0 1
145 Tulane 2.4%   2 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 8 - 10 +1.0      +1.3 137 -0.3 177 79.8 15 -0.4 201 0.0 1
154 East Carolina 2.5%   1 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 8 - 10 +0.8      +0.4 163 +0.4 158 63.3 333 +4.4 109 0.0 1
191 Rice 0.7%   2 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 17 6 - 12 -1.7      -1.7 219 -0.1 168 65.3 302 +0.8 180 0.0 1
238 Texas San Antonio 0.4%   0 - 1 0 - 0 9 - 18 5 - 13 -3.5      +0.2 166 -3.7 298 75.0 52 -4.2 258 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Memphis 2.6 44.4 19.9 12.0 7.9 5.2 3.5 2.6 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1
North Texas 4.0 20.0 18.5 14.4 11.6 9.1 7.4 5.9 4.6 3.4 2.3 1.6 0.9 0.4
Florida Atlantic 4.3 18.0 16.5 13.9 11.8 9.5 7.9 6.5 5.1 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.3 0.5
Wichita St. 4.7 14.4 15.2 13.3 12.3 10.3 8.6 6.9 5.8 4.7 3.4 2.6 1.7 0.8
UAB 6.0 7.2 9.3 10.1 10.7 10.6 9.9 9.4 8.6 7.7 6.3 5.1 3.5 1.7
Temple 6.4 5.6 8.0 9.1 9.8 10.0 10.2 9.5 8.9 8.1 7.2 6.3 4.7 2.7
South Florida 7.2 3.7 5.5 7.0 7.9 8.9 9.2 9.8 10.1 9.3 9.3 8.4 6.8 4.1
Charlotte 7.5 2.6 4.4 6.5 7.6 8.4 9.1 9.6 10.0 10.0 9.8 9.4 7.7 5.0
Tulsa 7.6 2.4 4.7 6.2 7.4 8.3 8.9 9.4 9.9 10.1 9.9 8.9 7.8 6.0
Tulane 7.5 2.7 4.9 6.2 7.7 8.7 9.2 9.3 9.7 9.6 9.3 8.8 7.8 6.2
East Carolina 7.9 2.3 4.4 5.5 6.5 7.6 8.1 8.9 9.2 9.9 10.2 10.1 9.5 7.9
Rice 9.6 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.0 4.2 5.4 6.9 8.0 9.9 11.9 14.3 16.3 16.2
Texas San Antonio 10.3 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.1 3.0 3.9 4.8 6.4 8.1 10.0 13.8 17.9 27.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Memphis 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.5 3.9 5.9 8.5 10.8 13.4 15.0 14.3 12.2 8.0 3.2
North Texas 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.3 4.2 6.1 8.7 10.4 12.5 12.8 12.9 11.0 8.2 5.3 2.4 0.7
Florida Atlantic 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.2 4.8 7.0 9.1 11.1 12.8 12.6 12.0 10.1 7.1 4.4 2.0 0.5
Wichita St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.4 3.9 5.7 7.7 10.0 12.0 12.6 12.6 11.2 8.8 5.9 3.4 1.4 0.3
UAB 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.8 4.6 7.2 9.4 11.3 12.2 12.4 11.7 9.9 7.1 4.9 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1
Temple 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.7 5.7 8.1 9.9 11.7 12.4 12.2 10.5 8.6 6.5 4.0 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1
South Florida 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.2 5.3 7.9 10.0 11.5 12.6 12.1 11.1 8.6 6.6 4.5 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
Charlotte 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.6 5.9 8.7 11.2 12.3 12.4 11.7 10.4 8.3 5.9 3.6 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Tulsa 8 - 10 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.9 6.2 8.6 10.9 12.4 12.5 11.5 10.0 8.1 5.9 3.7 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Tulane 8 - 10 0.1 0.8 1.9 3.9 6.2 8.6 10.5 11.6 12.1 11.6 10.4 8.1 6.2 3.9 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
East Carolina 8 - 10 0.4 1.1 2.9 4.9 7.5 9.5 11.2 12.4 11.7 10.8 8.8 7.0 5.2 3.4 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Rice 6 - 12 0.7 3.0 6.0 9.4 12.6 14.1 13.4 11.9 9.7 7.5 5.2 3.2 1.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0
Texas San Antonio 5 - 13 2.2 6.0 9.9 12.6 13.9 13.7 11.6 9.8 7.2 5.1 3.6 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Memphis 44.4% 32.9 9.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
North Texas 20.0% 12.5 5.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Florida Atlantic 18.0% 11.3 5.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wichita St. 14.4% 8.7 4.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
UAB 7.2% 3.9 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Temple 5.6% 3.0 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
South Florida 3.7% 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Charlotte 2.6% 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tulsa 2.4% 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tulane 2.7% 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 2.3% 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rice 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Memphis 61.6% 31.7% 29.9% 11   1.6 2.6 3.6 5.0 5.1 5.5 4.8 5.1 6.7 7.8 10.7 2.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.4 43.7%
North Texas 28.3% 15.5% 12.8% 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.7 2.3 3.6 9.6 4.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 71.7 15.1%
Florida Atlantic 24.3% 15.2% 9.1% 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.4 3.4 6.9 3.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 75.7 10.7%
Wichita St. 20.8% 11.4% 9.3% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.9 2.9 6.8 3.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 79.2 10.5%
UAB 8.3% 6.9% 1.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 2.6 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 91.7 1.6%
Temple 7.5% 5.1% 2.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 2.5 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 92.5 2.5%
South Florida 4.4% 3.9% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 95.6 0.5%
Charlotte 3.0% 2.6% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 97.0 0.4%
Tulsa 2.6% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.4 0.3%
Tulane 2.4% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.6 0.2%
East Carolina 2.5% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.5 0.4%
Rice 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Memphis 61.6% 6.2% 58.5% 34.5% 15.2% 6.4% 2.8% 1.1% 0.5%
North Texas 28.3% 6.0% 25.3% 11.6% 4.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Florida Atlantic 24.3% 3.0% 22.8% 10.4% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Wichita St. 20.8% 3.8% 18.8% 8.2% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
UAB 8.3% 0.7% 8.0% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 7.5% 1.2% 6.9% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 4.4% 0.2% 4.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 3.0% 0.3% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 2.6% 0.1% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 2.4% 0.1% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 2.5% 0.2% 2.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.7 45.1 43.9 10.2 0.8 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.6 0.0 52.2 40.1 7.2 0.4 0.0
2nd Round 59.7% 0.7 40.3 47.6 11.3 0.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 26.0% 0.3 74.0 24.2 1.7 0.0
Elite Eight 10.3% 0.1 89.7 10.1 0.2 0.0
Final Four 4.2% 0.0 95.8 4.2 0.0
Final Game 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Champion 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7