American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
43 Memphis 71.6%   11   9 - 3 0 - 0 24 - 7 14 - 4 +11.2      +6.8 38 +4.4 63 75.2 41 +17.2 17 0.0 1
84 North Texas 17.9%   7 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 9 12 - 6 +6.8      +0.6 154 +6.3 33 57.5 361 +7.5 80 0.0 1
88 Florida Atlantic 15.2%   6 - 6 0 - 0 18 - 12 12 - 6 +6.3      +5.8 44 +0.5 150 77.4 21 +3.5 114 0.0 1
101 Wichita St. 9.6%   9 - 3 0 - 0 20 - 10 11 - 7 +4.7      +1.9 125 +2.8 100 73.3 72 +8.7 70 0.0 1
124 Temple 4.6%   6 - 5 0 - 0 16 - 14 10 - 8 +2.3      +0.5 157 +1.8 118 70.0 150 +2.3 134 0.0 1
127 UAB 4.0%   6 - 6 0 - 0 15 - 15 9 - 9 +2.1      +4.4 65 -2.3 241 73.3 73 -5.6 264 0.0 1
169 South Florida 1.4%   6 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 17 7 - 11 -0.5      +0.3 163 -0.8 193 69.6 156 -3.7 231 0.0 1
181 East Carolina 1.3%   6 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 10 -1.0      -0.7 193 -0.3 179 63.3 322 -2.8 211 0.0 1
186 Rice 1.1%   9 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 14 7 - 11 -1.3      -2.3 235 +1.0 137 65.3 267 +3.1 121 0.0 1
197 Charlotte 0.8%   6 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 17 7 - 11 -1.8      +0.9 145 -2.7 259 61.4 346 -1.8 192 0.0 1
202 Tulane 0.9%   4 - 7 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -1.9      -0.9 200 -1.0 198 68.9 182 -8.8 310 0.0 1
226 Texas San Antonio 0.4%   4 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 17 6 - 12 -3.5      -0.3 176 -3.3 281 75.0 44 -1.4 188 0.0 1
239 Tulsa 0.3%   4 - 7 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 12 -4.3      -2.5 239 -1.9 224 70.9 121 -10.3 325 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Memphis 1.7 63.9 19.4 8.3 4.2 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Texas 3.3 19.8 26.6 17.7 12.3 8.3 5.6 3.9 2.5 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1
Florida Atlantic 3.6 16.8 21.6 18.8 14.2 9.8 6.7 4.5 3.1 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1
Wichita St. 4.3 10.2 16.8 18.1 15.8 12.2 8.8 6.4 4.4 3.0 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.3
Temple 5.9 4.3 8.6 11.5 12.8 12.5 11.7 10.2 8.4 6.6 5.2 3.8 2.8 1.5
UAB 6.2 3.2 6.8 9.5 11.8 12.6 11.9 11.4 9.1 7.9 6.3 4.6 3.2 1.6
South Florida 8.3 0.7 2.1 3.9 5.8 7.2 8.8 9.8 10.8 11.3 11.8 11.1 9.6 7.1
East Carolina 7.8 1.0 2.9 5.4 7.4 9.1 10.0 10.9 10.9 10.4 10.0 8.8 7.7 5.6
Rice 8.1 0.8 2.2 4.0 6.2 8.0 9.6 10.8 11.3 11.4 10.5 9.8 8.8 6.7
Charlotte 8.6 0.5 1.8 3.3 5.1 6.8 7.9 9.4 10.3 11.3 11.6 11.7 11.4 8.9
Tulane 8.1 0.8 2.5 4.5 6.7 8.3 9.7 10.4 10.8 10.5 10.3 9.7 8.8 7.2
Texas San Antonio 9.6 0.2 1.0 1.9 3.2 4.5 6.0 7.4 8.8 10.2 11.8 13.2 15.0 16.8
Tulsa 10.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.5 4.9 6.6 8.0 10.0 11.8 14.2 16.5 20.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Memphis 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.5 8.0 12.8 17.3 19.6 17.9 11.9 4.2
North Texas 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.9 6.6 10.0 13.4 15.6 15.9 13.9 9.7 5.2 1.8 0.4
Florida Atlantic 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.8 5.2 8.2 11.7 14.9 15.8 14.9 11.9 7.6 3.8 1.1 0.2
Wichita St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.3 7.3 10.8 14.4 15.8 15.2 12.7 8.7 4.6 1.9 0.6 0.1
Temple 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.7 6.3 9.6 12.6 14.6 14.4 13.0 10.0 6.8 3.7 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
UAB 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.5 7.6 11.1 13.9 15.0 14.3 12.4 8.6 5.0 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
South Florida 7 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.3 7.6 11.3 14.2 15.1 13.9 11.8 8.6 5.5 3.1 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
East Carolina 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.0 6.0 9.2 12.2 14.4 14.7 13.1 10.5 7.3 4.4 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rice 7 - 11 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.6 6.7 10.4 13.4 15.2 15.0 12.6 9.2 6.0 3.4 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Charlotte 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.4 5.0 8.7 12.5 14.5 15.0 13.3 10.8 7.7 4.8 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tulane 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.6 6.8 10.2 13.1 14.5 14.2 12.7 9.4 6.4 3.8 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Texas San Antonio 6 - 12 0.3 1.8 4.7 8.6 12.2 14.6 15.0 13.6 10.9 8.0 5.0 2.9 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Tulsa 6 - 12 0.5 2.4 5.7 9.8 13.6 15.5 15.7 13.0 9.9 6.6 3.8 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Memphis 63.9% 49.7 11.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
North Texas 19.8% 11.4 6.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Florida Atlantic 16.8% 9.6 5.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wichita St. 10.2% 5.3 3.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Temple 4.3% 2.0 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
UAB 3.2% 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Florida 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rice 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Charlotte 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tulane 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Memphis 71.6% 44.0% 27.6% 11   0.3 0.6 1.6 2.8 3.5 4.8 5.9 8.0 11.5 16.1 15.4 1.0 0.0 28.4 49.2%
North Texas 17.9% 17.1% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 6.0 9.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 82.1 0.9%
Florida Atlantic 15.2% 14.9% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 4.8 8.0 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 84.8 0.3%
Wichita St. 9.6% 9.4% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.8 5.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 90.4 0.2%
Temple 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 95.4 0.0%
UAB 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 96.0 0.0%
South Florida 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 98.6 0.0%
East Carolina 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 98.7 0.0%
Rice 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 98.9 0.0%
Charlotte 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.2 0.0%
Tulane 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 99.1 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%
Tulsa 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Memphis 71.6% 7.6% 67.6% 33.0% 10.5% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
North Texas 17.9% 0.7% 17.5% 4.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 15.2% 0.2% 15.0% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 9.6% 0.2% 9.5% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 4.6% 0.0% 4.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 4.0% 0.1% 4.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 1.4% 0.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.3 71.3 28.5 0.2
1st Round 99.9% 1.2 0.1 75.7 24.1 0.1
2nd Round 42.3% 0.4 57.7 39.9 2.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 13.2% 0.1 86.8 13.1 0.1
Elite Eight 4.2% 0.0 95.8 4.2 0.0
Final Four 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Final Game 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1