American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
49 Memphis 93.6%   9   24 - 5 14 - 2 26 - 5 16 - 2 +11.4      +4.9 64 +6.5 35 75.1 31 +16.7 15 +12.3 1
70 North Texas 25.8%   20 - 6 13 - 3 22 - 6 15 - 3 +8.0      +2.0 116 +6.0 45 55.5 362 +9.6 60 +10.4 2
102 UAB 9.4%   18 - 10 12 - 4 19 - 11 13 - 5 +4.5      +7.3 33 -2.8 253 71.5 85 +2.9 123 +9.0 3
108 Florida Atlantic 4.7%   15 - 13 9 - 7 16 - 14 10 - 8 +3.6      +4.1 77 -0.5 185 72.3 66 +2.9 124 +3.1 5
117 Wichita St. 2.9%   16 - 12 7 - 9 17 - 13 8 - 10 +2.8      +0.9 148 +1.9 116 70.2 117 +3.3 118 -0.2 7
147 Tulane 3.1%   15 - 12 11 - 5 16 - 13 12 - 6 +0.8      +0.9 147 -0.2 179 67.3 202 0.0 164 +5.2 4
154 East Carolina 1.5%   15 - 12 9 - 7 16 - 13 10 - 8 +0.4      +1.4 129 -1.0 204 66.2 230 +0.5 157 +1.9 6
162 Temple 0.9%   14 - 14 7 - 9 15 - 15 8 - 10 -0.1      +2.4 107 -2.4 243 71.1 96 +0.2 161 -0.4 8
182 South Florida 0.5%   12 - 17 6 - 11 12 - 18 6 - 12 -1.3      -2.5 240 +1.2 140 70.0 123 -2.7 209 -2.0 9
183 Rice 0.3%   13 - 16 4 - 13 13 - 17 4 - 14 -1.4      +0.7 152 -2.1 233 64.7 276 -2.7 213 -6.1 12
190 Texas San Antonio 0.4%   9 - 17 5 - 11 10 - 18 6 - 12 -1.7      +0.4 164 -2.1 231 73.9 51 -3.8 225 -3.9 11
236 Charlotte 0.0%   9 - 19 3 - 13 10 - 20 4 - 14 -4.3      -1.3 214 -3.0 262 63.3 310 -5.3 252 -7.2 13
262 Tulsa 0.1%   9 - 18 5 - 11 10 - 19 6 - 12 -5.5      -4.0 276 -1.5 215 66.1 236 -6.4 273 -3.6 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Memphis 1.0 99.3 0.7
North Texas 1.9 14.4 84.8 0.9
UAB 2.9 0.1 14.0 78.9 7.0
Florida Atlantic 5.2 8.0 67.7 24.3
Wichita St. 6.9 22.3 64.2 13.5
Tulane 3.7 0.4 29.2 70.4
East Carolina 5.4 9.4 45.8 44.8
Temple 7.4 9.5 39.8 50.7
South Florida 9.1 0.1 2.0 84.7 12.7 0.5
Rice 11.6 10.4 22.9 64.4 2.3
Texas San Antonio 9.7 0.1 2.9 46.7 28.8 21.6
Charlotte 12.6 1.8 1.8 27.8 68.6
Tulsa 9.8 2.0 3.4 37.5 29.0 28.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Memphis 16 - 2 1.2 20.8 78.0
North Texas 15 - 3 2.6 33.8 63.5
UAB 13 - 5 17.3 48.1 34.6
Florida Atlantic 10 - 8 18.8 55.0 26.2
Wichita St. 8 - 10 6.8 46.8 46.4
Tulane 12 - 6 32.3 48.4 19.4
East Carolina 10 - 8 29.0 53.8 17.2
Temple 8 - 10 28.7 52.1 19.2
South Florida 6 - 12 93.3 6.7
Rice 4 - 14 54.1 45.9
Texas San Antonio 6 - 12 44.1 47.7 8.2
Charlotte 4 - 14 44.5 51.5 4.0
Tulsa 6 - 12 50.5 42.9 6.5




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Memphis 99.3% 85.6 13.5 0.1
North Texas 14.4% 0.7 13.5 0.1
UAB 0.1% 0.1
Florida Atlantic
Wichita St.
Tulane
East Carolina
Temple
South Florida
Rice
Texas San Antonio
Charlotte
Tulsa


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Memphis 93.6% 50.9% 42.7% 9   0.5 2.1 6.9 19.9 36.4 23.5 4.3 6.4 87.0%
North Texas 25.8% 25.3% 0.6% 0.1 9.2 16.4 0.2 74.2 0.7%
UAB 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.2 4.9 3.7 0.6 0.0 90.6 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.1 2.4 1.8 0.5 0.0 95.3 0.0%
Wichita St. 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 97.1 0.0%
Tulane 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.0 96.9 0.0%
East Carolina 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 98.5 0.0%
Temple 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 99.1 0.0%
South Florida 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Rice 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.1 99.7 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Charlotte 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Tulsa 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Memphis 93.6% 2.9% 92.1% 35.5% 5.6% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 25.8% 0.6% 25.5% 5.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 9.4% 0.0% 9.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 4.7% 0.0% 4.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 2.9% 0.0% 2.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 3.1% 0.0% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 0.9% 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.4 56.8 43.2 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 1.4 0.0 58.9 41.1 0.0
2nd Round 40.7% 0.4 59.3 38.3 2.4
Sweet Sixteen 7.0% 0.1 93.0 7.0 0.1
Elite Eight 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0