American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
38 Memphis 82.4%   10   17 - 4 7 - 1 26 - 5 16 - 2 +12.0      +4.9 62 +7.1 28 76.1 29 +16.9 19 +13.3 2
64 North Texas 30.4%   14 - 4 7 - 1 22 - 6 15 - 3 +8.9      +3.0 95 +5.9 45 56.6 362 +10.8 53 +14.8 1
100 UAB 7.9%   12 - 8 6 - 2 18 - 12 12 - 6 +4.4      +6.0 49 -1.6 220 72.0 81 +0.6 161 +10.6 3
108 Florida Atlantic 4.8%   10 - 10 4 - 4 16 - 14 10 - 8 +3.8      +4.5 65 -0.7 197 72.9 69 +2.7 127 +2.5 7
124 Temple 3.1%   12 - 8 5 - 3 17 - 13 10 - 8 +2.2      +2.1 118 +0.1 168 72.6 72 +3.3 123 +5.3 4
137 Wichita St. 1.5%   10 - 10 1 - 7 15 - 15 6 - 12 +1.6      +0.9 152 +0.7 152 71.3 101 +1.0 153 -10.6 13
141 Tulane 2.9%   9 - 10 5 - 3 15 - 14 11 - 7 +1.5      +0.8 159 +0.7 151 68.3 181 -2.1 204 +5.0 5
150 East Carolina 2.2%   10 - 9 4 - 4 15 - 14 9 - 9 +0.9      0.0 181 +0.9 142 65.4 259 +0.1 167 +2.5 6
169 South Florida 1.0%   10 - 10 4 - 4 13 - 17 7 - 11 -0.2      -0.9 198 +0.7 150 69.4 155 -1.8 200 +0.1 8
201 Rice 0.2%   11 - 9 2 - 6 14 - 16 5 - 13 -1.8      -1.3 212 -0.5 191 65.1 266 -1.2 186 -6.5 11
215 Charlotte 0.2%   7 - 13 1 - 7 10 - 20 4 - 14 -2.9      -1.4 216 -1.5 216 63.2 313 -5.1 250 -9.3 12
216 Texas San Antonio 0.2%   7 - 11 3 - 5 11 - 17 7 - 11 -3.0      +1.6 130 -4.6 309 74.6 40 -2.1 206 -1.0 9
246 Tulsa 0.1%   7 - 12 3 - 5 9 - 20 5 - 13 -4.9      -2.7 245 -2.3 237 67.6 202 -7.5 285 -3.4 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Memphis 1.3 76.3 21.2 2.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
North Texas 1.7 42.0 49.1 7.2 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
UAB 3.5 4.6 13.7 43.7 18.3 10.6 5.4 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida Atlantic 5.5 0.1 1.2 10.9 18.7 21.2 19.8 14.8 7.8 3.0 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
Temple 4.9 0.4 2.7 18.3 24.5 20.8 16.4 9.8 4.4 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.1
Wichita St. 9.7 0.0 0.5 1.3 3.7 7.6 15.1 17.5 17.7 15.4 12.3 9.1
Tulane 4.6 0.4 4.3 22.8 26.9 19.3 13.7 7.8 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
East Carolina 5.8 0.1 0.9 10.4 17.1 17.5 19.0 17.8 9.3 4.6 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.0
South Florida 8.0 0.2 1.2 3.6 6.8 10.8 15.3 23.2 17.7 11.7 6.4 2.8 0.5
Rice 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.8 10.0 15.3 17.4 19.0 17.4 13.2
Charlotte 11.3 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.3 7.7 13.0 16.6 21.6 33.4
Texas San Antonio 9.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.2 6.6 11.8 18.1 18.9 15.5 11.8 8.7 3.8
Tulsa 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 2.0 4.4 9.7 14.4 19.0 20.4 19.4 9.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Memphis 16 - 2 0.1 0.2 1.3 4.3 12.8 25.9 33.3 22.1
North Texas 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.9 12.2 22.7 28.3 22.0 8.4
UAB 12 - 6 0.0 0.5 2.1 5.9 13.0 20.1 22.8 18.7 12.2 4.1 0.7
Florida Atlantic 10 - 8 0.1 0.5 2.5 7.2 14.7 22.1 23.4 18.2 8.6 2.4 0.3
Temple 10 - 8 0.1 1.0 3.9 9.9 18.3 23.7 21.8 14.0 5.8 1.5 0.0
Wichita St. 6 - 12 0.1 1.3 5.2 12.5 20.9 23.6 19.7 11.3 4.4 1.0 0.1
Tulane 11 - 7 0.1 0.7 2.6 7.9 15.8 21.9 22.6 17.0 8.3 2.9 0.3
East Carolina 9 - 9 0.1 0.8 3.9 9.8 16.8 22.0 21.3 15.3 7.4 2.1 0.4
South Florida 7 - 11 2.4 9.2 19.0 24.5 21.2 13.8 6.9 2.3 0.7 0.1
Rice 5 - 13 1.6 7.5 18.5 24.8 23.1 14.7 7.0 2.3 0.4 0.1
Charlotte 4 - 14 1.7 8.0 18.0 23.7 23.2 15.2 6.8 2.8 0.6 0.1
Texas San Antonio 7 - 11 1.7 8.0 17.1 22.4 23.0 15.5 8.6 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
Tulsa 5 - 13 6.5 19.6 27.5 23.3 14.4 6.1 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Memphis 76.3% 54.8 20.1 1.4 0.1
North Texas 42.0% 21.4 19.2 1.3 0.1
UAB 4.6% 1.3 2.1 1.1 0.1
Florida Atlantic 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0
Temple 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0
Wichita St.
Tulane 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
East Carolina 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
South Florida
Rice
Charlotte
Texas San Antonio
Tulsa


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Memphis 82.4% 48.5% 33.9% 10   0.0 0.6 2.6 3.6 4.2 5.7 10.9 18.3 22.4 13.8 0.4 17.6 65.9%
North Texas 30.4% 27.6% 2.7% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.3 14.8 11.8 0.7 69.6 3.8%
UAB 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.6 1.0 0.2 92.1 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.5 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 95.3 0.0%
Temple 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 96.9 0.0%
Wichita St. 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.0 98.5 0.0%
Tulane 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.0 97.1 0.0%
East Carolina 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 97.8 0.0%
South Florida 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 99.0 0.0%
Rice 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Charlotte 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Tulsa 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Memphis 82.4% 8.9% 77.9% 36.8% 9.7% 3.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0%
North Texas 30.4% 2.5% 29.2% 8.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 7.9% 0.0% 7.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 4.8% 0.0% 4.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 3.1% 0.0% 3.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 2.9% 0.0% 2.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 1.0% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.4 63.7 36.0 0.3
1st Round 99.9% 1.3 0.1 69.1 30.6 0.2
2nd Round 44.3% 0.5 55.7 41.3 3.0
Sweet Sixteen 12.0% 0.1 88.0 11.8 0.2
Elite Eight 3.5% 0.0 96.5 3.4 0.0
Final Four 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.4
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0