Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
46 Dayton 46.5%   11   9 - 3 0 - 0 22 - 8 13 - 5 +10.6      +7.3 32 +3.2 93 62.4 337 +14.4 35 0.0 2
57 Virginia Commonwealth 26.7%   8 - 3 0 - 0 22 - 8 13 - 5 +9.5      +2.4 112 +7.1 18 66.4 250 +6.8 90 0.0 2
87 George Mason 10.5%   6 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 7 +6.4      +0.9 145 +5.6 41 64.3 300 +2.0 137 0.0 2
89 St. Bonaventure 12.1%   10 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 8 11 - 7 +6.4      +1.5 131 +4.9 55 64.5 292 +13.5 40 0.0 2
96 Saint Joseph's 9.1%   7 - 4 1 - 0 19 - 12 12 - 7 +5.6      +1.8 123 +3.8 82 71.8 99 +3.2 118 +14.8 1
99 Rhode Island 8.7%   9 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 9 11 - 7 +5.5      +2.7 103 +2.8 100 76.2 30 +10.2 59 0.0 2
106 Loyola Chicago 5.7%   8 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 10 10 - 8 +4.3      +0.5 154 +3.8 81 70.5 140 +9.6 65 0.0 2
122 Davidson 2.9%   7 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 12 9 - 9 +2.5      +3.0 97 -0.5 183 65.3 275 +7.9 80 0.0 2
136 George Washington 1.6%   10 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 12 8 - 10 +1.4      +1.5 129 -0.2 173 71.7 103 +3.4 117 0.0 2
143 Saint Louis 1.0%   5 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 11 +0.8      +4.1 74 -3.3 281 71.3 112 -1.7 192 0.0 2
164 La Salle 0.7%   7 - 5 0 - 1 14 - 16 7 - 12 -0.4      -0.6 186 +0.2 159 73.6 66 +1.7 141 -9.6 15
169 Fordham 0.6%   6 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 17 7 - 11 -0.6      -1.4 210 +0.8 146 73.6 65 +0.4 161 0.0 2
191 Massachusetts 0.4%   4 - 7 0 - 0 10 - 20 6 - 12 -1.3      -1.0 197 -0.4 179 75.1 43 -5.6 263 0.0 2
200 Duquesne 0.4%   3 - 8 0 - 0 9 - 21 6 - 12 -1.7      -3.2 263 +1.5 123 65.3 273 -7.9 300 0.0 2
216 Richmond 0.2%   2 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 20 5 - 13 -2.6      -1.3 207 -1.2 207 66.9 233 -8.5 305 0.0 2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Dayton 2.7 38.9 21.7 13.9 9.0 6.4 3.8 2.5 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 3.3 27.6 19.6 15.4 11.5 8.8 6.1 4.1 2.8 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
George Mason 4.8 12.2 14.1 13.9 13.0 11.4 9.5 7.7 5.8 4.3 3.2 2.1 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2
St. Bonaventure 4.8 12.1 13.3 13.5 12.7 11.8 10.2 8.1 6.0 4.5 3.1 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.2
Saint Joseph's 4.2 18.6 16.3 14.2 12.4 10.2 8.0 6.4 4.5 3.5 2.3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1
Rhode Island 5.4 10.1 11.4 11.7 12.2 11.5 10.2 8.7 6.9 5.5 4.0 2.9 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.4
Loyola Chicago 6.8 4.9 6.9 8.0 8.8 9.8 10.3 10.2 9.1 8.3 7.0 5.7 4.3 3.1 2.2 1.2
Davidson 7.7 2.4 4.2 5.9 7.5 8.7 9.6 10.9 10.7 10.0 8.3 7.1 5.7 4.2 3.0 1.9
George Washington 8.5 1.4 2.8 4.0 5.4 7.1 8.6 9.9 10.4 10.5 9.9 8.8 7.4 6.3 4.5 2.9
Saint Louis 10.0 0.6 1.3 2.0 3.0 4.1 5.5 7.0 8.1 9.5 10.4 10.7 11.0 10.4 9.2 7.2
La Salle 10.0 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.9 4.1 5.3 7.2 8.7 10.0 10.8 11.5 11.2 10.3 8.6 6.5
Fordham 10.3 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.5 4.8 6.4 8.0 9.3 10.2 11.0 11.5 11.1 10.2 8.6
Massachusetts 10.8 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.9 2.8 3.9 5.5 6.7 8.4 9.9 11.3 12.1 12.6 12.5 10.7
Duquesne 11.5 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 2.0 2.8 3.9 5.1 6.8 8.8 10.6 12.3 13.7 15.3 16.1
Richmond 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.4 3.6 4.7 6.6 8.1 9.8 11.7 14.4 16.4 18.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Dayton 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.8 5.2 8.7 13.1 16.7 17.7 15.9 11.1 5.2 1.4
Virginia Commonwealth 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 5.0 8.1 12.0 15.0 16.6 16.0 11.9 7.2 3.0 0.6
George Mason 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.9 6.6 9.7 13.1 14.9 15.3 13.5 9.8 6.1 2.8 0.9 0.2
St. Bonaventure 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 4.1 6.8 10.3 13.3 15.1 15.3 12.8 9.6 5.6 2.6 0.9 0.1
Saint Joseph's 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.1 8.1 10.9 13.6 14.9 14.4 11.8 8.3 4.9 2.1 0.7
Rhode Island 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.2 5.4 8.4 10.9 13.7 14.6 13.8 11.4 8.0 4.8 2.2 0.7 0.1
Loyola Chicago 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.3 6.4 9.5 11.8 13.5 13.8 12.7 10.1 7.0 4.4 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
Davidson 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.9 5.3 8.7 11.5 14.1 15.0 13.5 11.0 7.8 4.8 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
George Washington 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.3 7.9 10.8 13.9 14.3 14.1 12.3 8.6 5.5 3.0 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Saint Louis 7 - 11 0.1 0.9 2.7 5.5 8.8 12.5 14.2 14.3 13.1 10.6 7.7 5.0 2.7 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
La Salle 7 - 11 0.1 0.5 2.2 4.8 8.5 12.4 15.1 15.4 14.0 11.0 7.5 4.7 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Fordham 7 - 11 0.2 0.9 2.9 6.3 9.9 13.1 15.0 14.7 12.9 10.0 6.6 3.8 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 6 - 12 0.2 1.5 3.9 7.5 12.0 14.3 15.8 14.2 11.6 8.4 5.4 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Duquesne 6 - 12 0.5 2.3 5.9 10.7 14.1 15.4 15.3 12.7 9.4 6.2 3.8 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Richmond 5 - 13 0.6 3.1 7.1 11.8 14.9 15.9 14.8 12.0 8.7 5.5 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Dayton 38.9% 25.7 9.8 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 27.6% 17.0 7.7 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
George Mason 12.2% 6.3 4.0 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
St. Bonaventure 12.1% 6.3 3.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Saint Joseph's 18.6% 10.8 5.5 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Rhode Island 10.1% 5.2 3.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Loyola Chicago 4.9% 2.3 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Davidson 2.4% 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
George Washington 1.4% 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Saint Louis 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
La Salle 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fordham 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Richmond 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Dayton 46.5% 28.4% 18.1% 11   0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.7 2.3 2.8 3.9 6.2 9.6 15.3 2.4 0.0 53.5 25.3%
Virginia Commonwealth 26.7% 22.4% 4.2% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.3 2.1 3.9 11.8 4.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 73.3 5.5%
George Mason 10.5% 10.1% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 3.8 5.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.5 0.5%
St. Bonaventure 12.1% 9.7% 2.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 5.8 3.9 0.2 0.0 87.9 2.7%
Saint Joseph's 9.2% 8.7% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 3.6 4.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.8 0.5%
Rhode Island 8.7% 7.9% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 3.5 4.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 91.3 0.9%
Loyola Chicago 5.7% 5.2% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.2 2.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 94.3 0.5%
Davidson 2.9% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.1 0.1%
George Washington 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.4 0.0%
Saint Louis 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.0 0.0%
La Salle 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3 0.0%
Fordham 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%
Duquesne 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%
Richmond 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Dayton 46.5% 6.6% 43.3% 20.2% 6.3% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Virginia Commonwealth 26.7% 2.0% 25.7% 10.3% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
George Mason 10.5% 0.3% 10.4% 2.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 12.1% 1.7% 11.1% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 9.2% 0.3% 9.0% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 8.7% 0.7% 8.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 5.7% 0.4% 5.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 2.9% 0.1% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 1.6% 0.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.3 73.9 24.9 1.1 0.0
1st Round 99.9% 1.2 0.1 79.4 20.0 0.5
2nd Round 40.5% 0.4 59.5 37.6 2.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 12.3% 0.1 87.7 12.1 0.2
Elite Eight 3.9% 0.0 96.1 3.8 0.0
Final Four 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1