Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
50 Virginia Commonwealth 39.9%   11   13 - 4 4 - 1 23 - 7 14 - 4 +10.7      +4.5 65 +6.2 38 65.7 250 +8.5 68 +12.2 2
76 Dayton 13.9%   11 - 6 2 - 3 19 - 11 10 - 8 +7.3      +5.7 50 +1.6 127 63.5 309 +8.0 70 -1.1 14
86 George Mason 13.9%   13 - 5 5 - 1 20 - 10 12 - 6 +6.6      0.0 177 +6.6 32 62.8 322 +6.3 86 +11.4 3
90 Saint Joseph's 11.3%   11 - 7 3 - 3 19 - 12 11 - 8 +6.3      +2.2 117 +4.0 75 70.7 120 +3.2 117 +2.4 6
96 St. Bonaventure 7.5%   14 - 4 3 - 3 21 - 9 10 - 8 +5.4      +2.6 108 +2.9 93 61.9 342 +7.6 75 +1.9 9
102 Saint Louis 5.5%   9 - 7 4 - 1 16 - 13 11 - 7 +4.0      +3.6 86 +0.4 157 69.4 159 +3.0 118 +12.5 1
109 Rhode Island 3.7%   13 - 4 3 - 3 19 - 10 9 - 9 +3.4      +1.5 136 +1.9 120 73.4 64 +6.1 90 +2.3 7
116 Duquesne 3.9%   8 - 9 4 - 1 14 - 16 10 - 8 +2.9      +0.2 170 +2.6 99 62.9 319 -0.3 175 +10.9 4
119 George Washington 2.8%   12 - 5 2 - 3 19 - 11 9 - 9 +2.7      +0.7 160 +2.0 113 72.9 71 +2.6 126 +1.8 10
120 Davidson 2.7%   11 - 6 2 - 3 18 - 12 9 - 9 +2.7      +4.1 73 -1.4 221 65.1 263 +4.1 106 -0.3 12
136 Loyola Chicago 1.6%   10 - 7 2 - 3 16 - 14 8 - 10 +1.7      +0.8 154 +0.9 140 70.0 140 +1.6 142 +3.5 5
170 Massachusetts 0.4%   7 - 11 3 - 3 11 - 19 7 - 11 -0.5      -0.8 201 +0.4 155 76.3 24 -3.4 227 +2.2 8
191 La Salle 0.4%   9 - 8 2 - 4 14 - 16 7 - 12 -1.3      -1.3 216 0.0 172 75.0 40 +1.6 141 +0.1 11
209 Richmond 0.2%   5 - 12 2 - 4 9 - 20 6 - 12 -2.4      -3.1 254 +0.7 144 65.1 265 -5.6 256 -0.5 13
220 Fordham 0.0%   7 - 10 0 - 5 11 - 19 4 - 14 -3.3      -2.6 238 -0.7 194 74.7 44 -3.3 225 -13.6 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Virginia Commonwealth 1.7 64.9 18.5 7.5 4.0 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1
Dayton 6.0 4.6 8.8 11.0 12.0 11.2 10.9 9.4 8.4 7.6 6.5 4.5 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.1
George Mason 3.0 25.6 27.5 17.0 11.5 6.8 4.8 3.1 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's 4.4 10.6 19.0 17.4 13.9 10.1 8.4 6.7 4.8 3.6 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0
St. Bonaventure 6.2 3.3 7.6 10.6 11.8 12.4 11.7 10.3 9.3 8.0 5.9 4.3 2.9 1.6 0.4 0.1
Saint Louis 5.2 9.4 13.2 13.1 13.2 10.7 9.6 8.0 6.7 5.5 4.1 3.4 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.0
Rhode Island 6.9 2.0 5.2 7.3 10.0 10.7 11.5 11.6 10.8 8.9 7.4 6.2 4.3 2.6 1.2 0.2
Duquesne 5.5 6.3 11.5 12.5 13.1 11.1 10.6 9.0 7.8 6.2 4.8 3.4 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1
George Washington 7.8 1.4 4.0 5.6 7.9 8.9 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.2 9.2 8.1 6.6 4.9 2.7 0.6
Davidson 8.2 1.1 3.1 4.6 6.5 7.5 8.8 9.3 10.9 10.6 10.8 9.3 8.0 5.3 3.4 0.8
Loyola Chicago 9.0 0.7 2.0 3.4 4.7 5.3 7.7 8.2 9.7 10.7 10.9 10.9 10.6 8.7 5.1 1.5
Massachusetts 10.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.6 3.8 5.3 7.0 8.0 9.4 11.1 13.3 14.7 13.7 7.5 1.4
La Salle 11.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.2 3.0 4.5 6.0 7.8 9.8 13.1 16.2 17.3 13.1 4.2
Richmond 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.6 3.8 5.8 9.0 14.2 20.5 28.1 12.6
Fordham 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.8 3.0 5.1 9.4 19.0 59.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Virginia Commonwealth 14 - 4 0.3 0.8 2.6 5.9 11.6 18.4 22.7 20.2 13.3 4.1
Dayton 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 3.2 7.1 12.3 17.1 19.1 17.6 12.8 6.6 2.3 0.4
George Mason 12 - 6 0.0 0.4 1.3 4.3 9.7 16.0 21.2 20.9 14.8 8.2 2.8 0.5
Saint Joseph's 11 - 7 0.1 0.3 0.6 2.3 5.6 10.8 15.8 19.4 19.0 14.8 7.7 3.0 0.6
St. Bonaventure 10 - 8 0.2 0.8 2.9 6.5 13.0 18.9 20.7 17.8 12.1 5.3 1.7 0.3
Saint Louis 11 - 7 0.0 0.4 1.7 4.4 9.3 13.9 18.4 17.7 15.1 10.5 5.5 2.2 0.6 0.1
Rhode Island 9 - 9 0.0 0.4 1.7 4.8 9.7 15.4 20.5 19.5 14.8 8.7 3.5 0.9 0.1
Duquesne 10 - 8 0.1 0.5 2.2 5.2 10.6 15.7 18.8 18.1 14.4 9.0 3.9 1.4 0.2 0.0
George Washington 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.6 7.7 12.9 17.3 19.1 16.6 11.8 6.4 2.6 0.6 0.1
Davidson 9 - 9 0.0 0.5 1.6 4.3 8.9 14.9 18.9 18.9 15.1 9.6 5.0 1.8 0.4 0.0
Loyola Chicago 8 - 10 0.1 0.8 3.1 7.0 12.9 16.4 19.4 17.2 11.6 7.0 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1
Massachusetts 7 - 11 0.9 4.7 11.0 17.4 20.2 18.5 14.5 7.8 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
La Salle 7 - 11 0.4 2.6 8.0 16.4 20.1 20.3 15.2 9.9 4.7 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
Richmond 6 - 12 2.3 9.4 17.5 22.5 21.1 14.9 7.5 3.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Fordham 4 - 14 2.9 10.0 17.4 21.2 19.4 13.9 8.5 4.3 2.1 0.3 0.1 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Virginia Commonwealth 64.9% 47.4 13.2 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0
Dayton 4.6% 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
George Mason 25.6% 13.9 8.3 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's 10.6% 4.6 4.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
St. Bonaventure 3.3% 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Saint Louis 9.4% 4.4 3.1 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rhode Island 2.0% 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 6.3% 2.7 2.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
George Washington 1.4% 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Davidson 1.1% 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Loyola Chicago 0.7% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
La Salle 0.2% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Richmond 0.0% 0.0
Fordham


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Virginia Commonwealth 39.9% 35.0% 4.9% 11   0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.6 3.3 6.0 19.5 6.3 0.1 60.1 7.6%
Dayton 13.9% 12.1% 1.7% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.7 7.6 3.6 0.1 0.0 86.1 2.0%
George Mason 13.9% 13.5% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 5.2 7.5 0.7 86.1 0.5%
Saint Joseph's 11.3% 11.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.4 6.8 0.7 0.1 88.7 0.2%
St. Bonaventure 7.5% 7.3% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.4 4.5 0.4 0.0 92.5 0.2%
Saint Louis 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.6 3.1 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 94.5 0.0%
Rhode Island 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 96.3 0.0%
Duquesne 3.9% 3.8% 0.0% 0.3 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 96.2 0.0%
George Washington 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.2 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 97.2 0.0%
Davidson 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.2 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 97.3 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 98.5 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%
La Salle 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.7 0.0%
Richmond 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Virginia Commonwealth 39.9% 2.8% 38.7% 15.2% 4.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Dayton 13.9% 1.2% 13.3% 3.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 13.9% 0.4% 13.7% 2.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 11.3% 0.1% 11.3% 2.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 7.5% 0.2% 7.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 5.5% 0.0% 5.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 3.7% 0.0% 3.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 3.9% 0.0% 3.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 2.8% 0.0% 2.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 2.7% 0.0% 2.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 1.6% 0.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 92.6 7.3 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 1.1 0.0 94.8 5.2 0.0
2nd Round 27.5% 0.3 72.5 27.1 0.5
Sweet Sixteen 6.9% 0.1 93.1 6.8 0.0
Elite Eight 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4 0.0
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0