Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
54 Virginia Commonwealth 35.5%   11   3 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 7 12 - 6 +9.3      +2.7 100 +6.5 18 68.3 210 +10.1 45 0.0 1
58 Dayton 34.1%   3 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 9 12 - 6 +8.8      +3.9 75 +4.9 50 67.4 242 +14.3 21 0.0 1
95 George Mason 9.2%   2 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 8 +5.4      +1.8 129 +3.6 79 68.8 196 -4.5 265 0.0 1
102 Saint Louis 9.9%   0 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +4.9      +5.4 47 -0.4 180 72.0 104 -9.1 309 0.0 1
106 Saint Joseph's 8.3%   2 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 8 +4.7      +1.7 130 +2.9 89 71.7 110 +1.0 175 0.0 1
108 Loyola Chicago 8.2%   2 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 9 - 9 +4.3      +1.1 148 +3.2 84 70.5 144 -0.9 216 0.0 1
109 Massachusetts 8.4%   1 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 8 +4.2      +2.2 114 +2.0 109 72.2 101 -0.3 198 0.0 1
113 St. Bonaventure 7.1%   3 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 9 - 9 +3.8      +2.5 104 +1.3 128 64.6 314 +10.0 46 0.0 1
116 Rhode Island 5.6%   2 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 9 - 9 +3.2      +3.1 92 +0.2 162 74.0 69 +2.7 141 0.0 1
127 La Salle 4.2%   3 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 8 - 10 +2.5      +1.2 146 +1.3 125 66.7 261 +7.6 66 0.0 1
130 Davidson 4.0%   1 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 8 - 10 +1.9      +1.0 150 +0.9 143 66.3 269 +10.2 43 0.0 1
153 George Washington 2.0%   3 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 7 - 11 +0.8      +2.3 110 -1.5 220 73.7 73 +0.9 177 0.0 1
157 Duquesne 1.9%   0 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 16 7 - 11 +0.6      -2.0 236 +2.6 97 69.9 164 -12.7 331 0.0 1
159 Fordham 2.0%   2 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 14 7 - 11 +0.5      -1.7 224 +2.2 103 71.2 122 +12.7 30 0.0 1
184 Richmond 0.8%   0 - 2 0 - 0 11 - 18 6 - 12 -1.2      -2.2 240 +0.9 141 66.9 256 -16.1 348 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Virginia Commonwealth 3.6 31.4 17.9 12.5 9.2 7.3 5.4 4.2 3.3 2.6 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.2
Dayton 4.0 26.8 16.8 12.3 9.7 7.7 6.4 5.0 4.1 3.4 2.5 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.3
George Mason 5.6 11.5 12.3 11.4 10.3 9.4 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.6 3.9 3.2 2.6 1.6 1.1
Saint Louis 7.0 9.2 8.5 8.0 8.0 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.3 6.7 6.2 6.1 5.5 4.8 4.1 3.0
Saint Joseph's 6.5 8.6 9.5 9.7 9.2 8.6 8.1 7.5 7.2 6.6 6.1 5.5 4.4 4.1 2.9 2.0
Loyola Chicago 7.2 7.4 8.0 7.8 8.3 7.8 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 6.5 6.5 5.7 5.3 4.0 2.9
Massachusetts 6.8 8.1 8.7 8.9 9.0 8.5 7.9 7.7 7.0 6.8 6.1 5.9 5.0 4.4 3.6 2.4
St. Bonaventure 7.3 6.0 7.2 7.8 8.2 8.0 8.1 7.9 7.6 7.6 7.0 6.5 5.9 5.0 4.3 2.8
Rhode Island 7.7 5.8 6.7 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.0 7.1 6.4 5.9 5.0 4.1
La Salle 8.2 3.5 5.1 5.8 6.8 7.1 7.5 8.2 7.7 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.3 7.0 6.0 4.3
Davidson 8.4 4.1 5.2 5.7 6.1 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.4 7.5 6.6 6.1
George Washington 9.5 2.0 3.1 3.9 4.7 5.3 5.9 6.5 6.9 7.7 8.3 8.6 8.8 9.6 9.5 9.2
Duquesne 9.8 2.1 2.8 3.5 4.3 4.9 5.3 5.7 6.5 7.1 7.8 8.4 9.3 10.2 10.9 11.3
Fordham 9.6 1.8 2.9 3.8 4.5 5.3 6.0 6.5 7.1 7.5 7.8 8.9 8.9 9.9 9.9 9.3
Richmond 11.0 0.8 1.2 1.9 2.6 3.2 3.8 4.6 5.4 6.0 7.3 9.0 9.9 11.9 14.5 17.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Virginia Commonwealth 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.8 4.2 6.4 8.4 11.3 12.9 14.0 13.3 11.2 7.9 4.0 1.1
Dayton 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.4 5.3 7.5 9.8 11.8 12.9 13.2 12.3 9.6 6.4 3.1 0.9
George Mason 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.8 4.3 6.6 9.3 11.1 12.8 13.1 12.2 10.1 7.6 4.7 2.3 0.8 0.2
Saint Louis 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 3.4 5.4 7.5 8.9 10.8 11.7 11.3 10.6 8.7 7.1 5.3 3.2 1.8 0.6 0.2
Saint Joseph's 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.6 4.3 6.4 8.7 10.5 11.8 12.3 11.6 10.5 8.2 5.7 3.3 1.5 0.6 0.1
Loyola Chicago 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.5 5.7 8.0 9.7 10.9 12.0 11.6 10.9 8.7 6.6 4.5 2.8 1.2 0.5 0.1
Massachusetts 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.1 4.8 6.8 9.1 10.8 11.9 11.8 11.5 9.9 7.5 5.1 3.2 1.6 0.5 0.1
St. Bonaventure 9 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.6 5.8 8.0 10.3 11.6 12.6 11.8 10.7 8.7 6.4 3.9 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1
Rhode Island 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.7 4.3 6.5 8.8 10.7 11.5 11.8 11.2 9.7 7.9 6.0 3.7 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.1
La Salle 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.1 7.9 9.8 11.7 12.6 12.5 11.0 9.1 6.7 4.4 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Davidson 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.8 5.8 8.0 10.2 11.5 11.8 11.3 10.4 8.3 6.3 4.5 2.7 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
George Washington 7 - 11 0.3 1.4 2.9 5.4 8.3 10.8 11.7 12.3 11.9 10.4 8.6 6.4 4.4 2.6 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Duquesne 7 - 11 0.5 1.9 4.1 6.5 9.2 11.3 12.0 11.8 11.1 9.5 7.7 5.7 3.9 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Fordham 7 - 11 0.3 1.4 3.2 5.7 8.5 10.6 12.2 12.2 11.8 10.2 8.7 6.4 4.2 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Richmond 6 - 12 1.0 3.1 6.3 9.7 12.0 13.4 12.9 11.7 9.5 7.4 5.3 3.6 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Virginia Commonwealth 31.4% 21.3 7.4 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Dayton 26.8% 17.5 6.8 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
George Mason 11.5% 6.5 3.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Saint Louis 9.2% 5.2 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Saint Joseph's 8.6% 4.8 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Loyola Chicago 7.4% 4.0 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Massachusetts 8.1% 4.4 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
St. Bonaventure 6.0% 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Rhode Island 5.8% 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
La Salle 3.5% 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Davidson 4.1% 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
George Washington 2.0% 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 2.1% 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fordham 1.8% 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Richmond 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Virginia Commonwealth 35.5% 22.1% 13.4% 11   0.4 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.8 5.0 8.6 3.6 0.2 0.0 64.5 17.2%
Dayton 34.1% 19.4% 14.6% 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.6 3.9 4.8 9.0 3.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 65.9 18.2%
George Mason 9.2% 8.2% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 2.5 3.8 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 90.8 1.0%
Saint Louis 9.9% 7.8% 2.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 3.0 2.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 90.1 2.3%
Saint Joseph's 8.3% 6.9% 1.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 2.4 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 91.7 1.5%
Loyola Chicago 8.2% 6.5% 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 2.4 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 91.8 1.8%
Massachusetts 8.4% 6.4% 2.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 2.6 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 91.6 2.1%
St. Bonaventure 7.1% 5.4% 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 2.3 2.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 93.0 1.7%
Rhode Island 5.6% 4.5% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.6 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 94.4 1.2%
La Salle 4.2% 3.4% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.2 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.8 0.8%
Davidson 4.0% 3.3% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.0 0.7%
George Washington 2.0% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.0 0.2%
Duquesne 1.9% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 98.1 0.1%
Fordham 2.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.0 0.4%
Richmond 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Virginia Commonwealth 35.5% 3.4% 33.9% 17.2% 6.2% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
Dayton 34.1% 4.2% 31.9% 15.6% 5.4% 2.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
George Mason 9.2% 0.5% 9.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 9.9% 0.8% 9.5% 3.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 8.3% 0.8% 8.0% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 8.2% 0.8% 7.7% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 8.4% 0.9% 7.9% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 7.1% 0.9% 6.6% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 5.6% 0.6% 5.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 4.2% 0.5% 4.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 4.0% 0.4% 3.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 2.0% 0.1% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 1.9% 0.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 2.0% 0.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.4 63.7 31.8 4.3 0.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.3 0.0 68.9 28.0 2.9 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 46.9% 0.5 53.1 40.7 6.0 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 16.8% 0.2 83.2 16.3 0.5 0.0
Elite Eight 6.0% 0.1 94.0 6.0 0.0
Final Four 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1 0.0
Final Game 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Champion 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3