Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
60 UC Irvine 52.1%   12   2 - 0 0 - 0 25 - 6 16 - 4 +8.8      +2.2 112 +6.5 19 70.2 156 +17.5 14 0.0 1
117 UC Santa Barbara 15.6%   2 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 13 - 7 +3.1      +3.0 94 +0.1 164 73.0 86 +7.8 64 0.0 1
132 UC San Diego 10.8%   2 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 8 +1.8      +1.4 136 +0.4 155 64.2 325 +4.2 111 0.0 1
155 UC Riverside 7.6%   1 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 14 11 - 9 +0.6      +1.3 138 -0.7 194 69.6 173 +5.9 87 0.0 1
168 UC Davis 6.5%   1 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 14 11 - 9 -0.3      -2.3 242 +2.0 110 75.6 41 +3.5 124 0.0 1
175 Hawaii 5.9%   2 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 10 - 10 -0.7      -0.5 181 -0.2 174 65.3 301 +4.9 103 0.0 1
202 Cal St. Northridge 3.1%   1 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 11 -2.3      -2.8 262 +0.4 153 80.7 10 -0.5 207 0.0 1
250 Long Beach St. 1.5%   0 - 2 0 - 0 11 - 19 8 - 12 -4.3      -1.1 198 -3.2 276 75.5 43 -7.4 296 0.0 1
261 Cal St. Bakersfield 1.0%   1 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 18 7 - 13 -5.2      -2.0 235 -3.1 272 63.0 338 0.0 194 0.0 1
262 Cal St. Fullerton 1.0%   0 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 20 7 - 13 -5.2      -3.5 282 -1.7 231 66.0 282 -2.9 241 0.0 1
333 Cal Poly 0.1%   0 - 2 0 - 0 6 - 25 4 - 16 -10.1      -6.9 348 -3.2 277 79.5 18 -5.1 273 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC Irvine 1.7 64.2 18.4 8.6 4.1 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 3.5 17.8 23.0 17.8 12.7 10.0 7.0 5.0 3.4 2.0 1.1 0.3
UC San Diego 4.2 11.0 18.4 17.2 14.6 11.8 9.4 7.0 5.0 3.1 1.9 0.6
UC Riverside 4.7 7.6 13.7 15.7 14.8 13.4 11.3 8.8 6.6 4.5 2.5 1.1
UC Davis 5.1 6.0 11.6 13.3 13.4 13.0 12.0 10.3 8.3 6.3 4.1 1.7
Hawaii 5.4 5.5 10.2 12.4 13.2 13.0 12.1 10.8 8.9 6.8 4.8 2.3
Cal St. Northridge 6.2 2.8 6.5 8.8 10.6 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.2 10.0 7.9 4.0
Long Beach St. 7.2 1.1 3.3 5.3 7.0 8.9 11.4 12.6 14.2 14.4 13.6 8.1
Cal St. Bakersfield 7.6 0.7 2.3 4.1 6.1 7.5 10.1 12.1 14.3 16.2 15.8 11.0
Cal St. Fullerton 7.7 0.8 2.1 3.7 5.7 7.9 9.8 12.2 14.7 16.7 15.8 10.5
Cal Poly 9.6 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.9 3.3 5.0 8.4 13.3 22.7 43.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC Irvine 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.2 3.6 6.0 8.7 11.8 14.8 16.4 15.9 12.3 5.8
UC Santa Barbara 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.8 5.5 7.6 9.3 11.0 12.2 12.6 11.0 9.3 6.5 4.0 1.8 0.4
UC San Diego 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.5 5.7 7.5 9.7 11.1 12.2 12.1 11.0 9.0 6.6 3.9 2.1 0.8 0.1
UC Riverside 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.9 3.4 5.0 7.1 9.6 11.0 12.0 12.1 11.3 8.8 7.1 4.7 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1
UC Davis 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.0 5.0 6.6 8.6 10.4 11.0 11.5 11.0 9.6 7.8 5.6 3.5 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1
Hawaii 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.0 3.6 5.2 7.1 9.2 10.5 11.5 11.2 10.8 9.0 7.1 5.2 3.0 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1
Cal St. Northridge 9 - 11 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.7 5.6 7.9 9.8 11.1 11.5 11.3 10.3 8.4 6.7 4.6 2.8 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Long Beach St. 8 - 12 0.2 0.9 2.4 4.4 6.7 8.8 10.9 12.1 11.6 11.1 9.5 7.5 5.4 3.9 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 7 - 13 0.3 1.3 3.3 6.0 8.1 10.1 12.0 12.3 11.3 10.4 8.2 6.1 4.6 2.9 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 7 - 13 0.2 1.1 3.0 5.5 8.3 10.8 12.3 12.5 11.6 10.3 8.5 6.3 4.0 2.6 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Cal Poly 4 - 16 3.7 8.8 13.1 14.9 14.9 13.0 10.5 7.7 5.4 3.5 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Irvine 64.2% 52.8 9.9 1.3 0.1 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 17.8% 11.6 5.0 1.0 0.1 0.0
UC San Diego 11.0% 6.5 3.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
UC Riverside 7.6% 4.4 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
UC Davis 6.0% 3.4 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Hawaii 5.5% 3.0 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 2.8% 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Long Beach St. 1.1% 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.7% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Cal Poly 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Irvine 52.1% 47.6% 4.5% 12   0.3 0.5 0.9 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 2.3 3.4 12.3 18.5 5.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 47.9 8.6%
UC Santa Barbara 15.6% 15.3% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.6 5.8 4.9 2.0 0.5 0.0 84.4 0.4%
UC San Diego 10.8% 10.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.6 3.9 2.0 0.5 0.1 89.2 0.1%
UC Riverside 7.6% 7.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.2 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.1 92.4 0.1%
UC Davis 6.5% 6.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.2 93.5 0.1%
Hawaii 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 94.1 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 96.9 0.0%
Long Beach St. 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 98.5 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 99.0 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 99.0 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC Irvine 52.1% 2.3% 51.0% 20.1% 7.3% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
UC Santa Barbara 15.6% 0.2% 15.5% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 10.8% 0.1% 10.8% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 7.6% 0.1% 7.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 6.5% 0.1% 6.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 5.9% 0.0% 5.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 3.1% 0.1% 3.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 1.5% 0.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 1.0% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 94.9 5.1 0.0
1st Round 99.8% 1.0 0.2 95.9 3.9
2nd Round 27.8% 0.3 72.2 27.4 0.4
Sweet Sixteen 9.2% 0.1 90.8 9.2 0.0
Elite Eight 2.7% 0.0 97.3 2.7
Final Four 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1