Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
60 UC Irvine 54.9%   12   16 - 2 7 - 0 27 - 4 18 - 2 +9.3      +0.5 165 +8.8 11 72.2 86 +13.5 34 +17.0 1
79 UC San Diego 33.8%   12 - 4 5 - 2 23 - 7 15 - 5 +7.2      +3.9 79 +3.3 87 65.2 261 +6.7 85 +3.7 2
133 Cal St. Northridge 6.1%   10 - 6 4 - 3 18 - 11 12 - 8 +1.8      +0.3 169 +1.5 131 79.6 8 +0.7 158 -0.2 4
165 UC Santa Barbara 3.2%   10 - 6 4 - 3 17 - 12 11 - 9 -0.1      +0.5 162 -0.6 193 63.1 318 -0.6 178 -0.7 5
173 UC Riverside 3.2%   9 - 8 4 - 3 16 - 14 11 - 9 -0.5      -0.4 189 -0.2 181 67.9 204 +3.9 110 +2.8 3
181 Hawaii 2.0%   10 - 6 4 - 3 16 - 13 10 - 10 -0.9      -0.8 199 -0.2 178 65.3 258 +0.7 159 -2.5 8
228 UC Davis 0.5%   9 - 8 5 - 3 13 - 16 9 - 11 -3.8      -6.5 337 +2.7 97 70.7 122 -0.2 174 -0.7 6
233 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.4%   7 - 10 3 - 4 13 - 17 9 - 11 -4.1      -1.2 210 -2.9 262 64.1 297 -2.8 218 -0.9 7
287 Cal Poly 0.0%   5 - 14 0 - 8 9 - 22 4 - 16 -7.2      -2.3 232 -4.8 313 81.8 4 -5.4 253 -15.7 11
295 Long Beach St. 0.1%   5 - 12 3 - 4 8 - 22 6 - 14 -7.7      -2.5 234 -5.1 324 63.3 316 -6.7 274 -4.8 9
310 Cal St. Fullerton 0.0%   4 - 14 1 - 7 7 - 23 4 - 16 -8.4      -5.3 315 -3.1 266 66.0 243 -8.1 299 -12.8 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC Irvine 1.1 91.3 8.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC San Diego 2.1 15.8 69.1 10.6 2.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1
Cal St. Northridge 4.0 0.7 12.3 32.9 22.7 14.8 9.1 4.9 2.1 0.5 0.1
UC Santa Barbara 4.7 0.5 5.5 22.7 22.3 19.5 15.3 8.5 4.3 1.2 0.3 0.0
UC Riverside 4.4 0.5 7.6 28.8 22.8 16.7 11.4 7.1 4.1 1.0 0.1 0.0
Hawaii 5.5 0.2 2.5 12.0 17.0 19.6 19.6 15.7 9.8 3.2 0.5 0.0
UC Davis 6.2 0.1 1.2 6.1 11.6 15.3 19.1 22.7 17.9 5.4 0.7 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 6.7 0.0 0.7 4.9 8.4 11.8 15.8 21.4 22.9 10.3 3.1 0.8
Cal Poly 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.4 7.2 18.6 32.9 37.9
Long Beach St. 8.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.6 9.6 19.7 40.0 18.8 4.1
Cal St. Fullerton 10.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 5.3 15.7 38.2 38.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC Irvine 18 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 4.9 10.4 19.0 27.2 24.3 12.1
UC San Diego 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.8 9.8 17.2 23.4 23.6 15.9 4.3
Cal St. Northridge 12 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.9 6.4 13.2 19.2 21.0 18.0 11.5 5.0 1.5 0.2
UC Santa Barbara 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 6.5 12.0 18.0 20.7 19.0 12.0 6.2 1.9 0.4 0.1
UC Riverside 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 2.0 4.5 9.8 15.2 19.9 19.0 15.5 8.9 3.6 1.0 0.1
Hawaii 10 - 10 0.0 0.5 2.0 6.0 11.7 18.4 21.2 18.3 12.0 6.5 2.5 0.7 0.1
UC Davis 9 - 11 0.8 4.4 11.4 18.1 21.6 19.7 13.1 7.2 2.8 0.9 0.1
Cal St. Bakersfield 9 - 11 0.1 1.1 3.4 9.1 14.7 18.6 19.3 15.6 10.3 5.1 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
Cal Poly 4 - 16 0.6 4.7 10.7 19.0 21.2 18.7 13.2 7.5 3.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 6 - 14 2.7 9.9 19.1 23.9 20.1 13.6 6.7 2.9 0.9 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 4 - 16 3.4 10.9 21.0 23.2 19.9 12.4 6.2 2.3 0.6 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Irvine 91.3% 82.9 8.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
UC San Diego 15.8% 8.1 7.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 0.7% 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 0.5% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Riverside 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hawaii 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Davis 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0% 0.0
Cal Poly
Long Beach St.
Cal St. Fullerton


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Irvine 54.9% 51.1% 3.8% 12   0.1 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.4 2.8 5.2 27.2 14.4 0.3 45.1 7.8%
UC San Diego 33.8% 33.5% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 10.8 18.8 2.0 0.1 66.2 0.5%
Cal St. Northridge 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.3 2.8 0.8 0.1 93.9 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 96.8 0.0%
UC Riverside 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 96.9 0.0%
Hawaii 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 98.0 0.0%
UC Davis 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.5 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 99.6 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 100.0 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC Irvine 54.9% 2.7% 53.7% 16.7% 4.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 33.8% 0.3% 33.7% 8.0% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 6.1% 0.0% 6.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 3.2% 0.0% 3.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 3.2% 0.0% 3.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 95.9 4.1
1st Round 100.0% 1.0 0.1 97.2 2.8
2nd Round 25.7% 0.3 74.3 25.5 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 6.0% 0.1 94.0 6.0 0.0
Elite Eight 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.4
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0