Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
60 UC Irvine 53.0%   12   9 - 1 1 - 0 26 - 5 16 - 4 +9.2      +1.1 141 +8.1 8 72.9 77 +15.2 29 +8.6 5
91 UC San Diego 29.4%   9 - 2 2 - 0 23 - 7 15 - 5 +6.1      +2.9 101 +3.2 92 66.2 256 +10.8 52 +16.2 1
138 UC Santa Barbara 5.3%   6 - 4 0 - 2 17 - 12 10 - 10 +1.2      +1.2 139 0.0 166 66.8 236 -1.5 190 -12.8 8
158 Cal St. Northridge 3.9%   6 - 4 1 - 1 16 - 13 10 - 10 -0.1      -1.0 196 +0.9 144 79.6 10 +1.2 152 -3.2 6
171 UC Riverside 3.9%   6 - 4 2 - 0 16 - 14 11 - 9 -0.7      0.0 172 -0.7 190 67.1 228 +6.2 93 +14.8 2
174 Hawaii 3.2%   4 - 3 0 - 1 14 - 13 9 - 11 -0.8      -1.1 201 +0.2 160 65.3 270 +0.5 159 -17.7 10
185 UC Davis 3.1%   6 - 4 2 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 10 -1.2      -4.7 302 +3.6 84 74.8 47 +3.4 116 +10.9 4
229 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.8%   4 - 6 0 - 2 13 - 17 8 - 12 -3.6      -1.4 211 -2.1 238 63.0 326 -2.1 201 -4.7 7
261 Long Beach St. 0.4%   4 - 8 2 - 0 10 - 20 8 - 12 -5.5      -1.9 228 -3.6 285 63.2 320 -5.4 258 +11.7 3
265 Cal Poly 0.2%   5 - 7 0 - 2 11 - 20 6 - 14 -5.6      -2.0 232 -3.7 288 85.6 1 -0.5 176 -16.4 9
275 Cal St. Fullerton 0.2%   3 - 8 0 - 2 9 - 21 5 - 15 -6.2      -4.8 306 -1.4 213 64.2 307 -5.9 268 -20.5 11






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC Irvine 1.5 65.9 24.2 6.2 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC San Diego 2.0 37.9 40.5 12.1 5.1 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 5.1 1.9 7.3 18.4 17.8 15.8 12.6 10.1 7.1 4.8 2.9 1.3
Cal St. Northridge 5.3 2.2 7.3 15.5 16.7 15.3 13.9 10.9 8.3 5.4 3.3 1.3
UC Riverside 4.8 3.4 10.1 19.6 17.7 14.8 12.2 8.9 6.5 4.0 2.0 0.7
Hawaii 6.0 1.5 5.3 12.0 13.1 13.3 13.3 12.4 10.7 8.5 6.2 3.8
UC Davis 5.2 2.5 7.7 16.7 16.6 15.6 13.5 10.4 8.0 5.2 2.9 1.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 7.4 0.2 1.5 5.3 7.6 9.5 11.5 13.2 14.7 14.7 12.9 8.9
Long Beach St. 7.4 0.2 1.2 4.2 6.8 9.3 12.0 15.0 16.7 16.4 12.2 6.1
Cal Poly 8.9 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 3.7 6.4 9.0 13.3 17.2 22.6 24.4
Cal St. Fullerton 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.9 4.5 7.2 10.9 15.9 23.3 32.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC Irvine 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.4 4.7 8.0 12.8 17.3 19.2 17.4 11.8 4.4
UC San Diego 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.4 5.8 9.4 13.6 16.7 17.5 14.9 10.1 4.7 1.0
UC Santa Barbara 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.8 6.1 9.7 12.2 14.7 14.9 13.4 10.3 6.6 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.1
Cal St. Northridge 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.3 4.3 7.3 10.5 13.1 14.8 14.2 12.3 9.0 5.8 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
UC Riverside 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.1 5.4 8.7 11.7 13.8 14.2 13.9 11.2 7.7 4.7 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Hawaii 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.6 4.5 7.2 9.9 12.0 13.2 13.2 11.8 9.4 6.7 4.0 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
UC Davis 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 4.2 6.8 10.0 13.2 14.3 14.3 12.4 9.7 6.3 3.5 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1
Cal St. Bakersfield 8 - 12 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.1 6.2 9.4 12.3 14.0 14.1 12.5 10.2 7.2 4.4 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Long Beach St. 8 - 12 0.4 1.9 5.1 9.5 13.6 16.2 15.5 13.7 10.3 6.4 4.2 2.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 6 - 14 0.3 1.8 4.9 9.0 13.2 15.5 15.9 14.0 10.5 7.2 4.1 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 5 - 15 0.7 3.1 7.2 11.5 14.9 16.2 15.1 12.1 8.5 5.2 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Irvine 65.9% 53.7 11.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC San Diego 37.9% 26.7 10.1 1.0 0.1 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 1.9% 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 2.2% 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
UC Riverside 3.4% 1.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hawaii 1.5% 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
UC Davis 2.5% 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Irvine 53.0% 50.2% 2.9% 12   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.8 3.3 19.3 22.6 1.4 0.0 47.0 5.8%
UC San Diego 29.4% 28.9% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 7.3 17.5 2.9 0.2 0.0 70.6 0.7%
UC Santa Barbara 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 94.7 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 96.1 0.0%
UC Riverside 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 96.1 0.0%
Hawaii 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 96.8 0.0%
UC Davis 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 96.9 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 99.2 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
UC Irvine 53.0% 1.9% 52.1% 17.7% 5.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
UC San Diego 29.4% 0.4% 29.2% 6.7% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 5.3% 0.0% 5.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 3.9% 0.0% 3.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 3.9% 0.0% 3.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 3.2% 0.0% 3.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 3.1% 0.0% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 96.6 3.4
1st Round 99.9% 1.0 0.1 97.7 2.2
2nd Round 26.3% 0.3 73.7 26.1 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 7.5% 0.1 92.5 7.5 0.0
Elite Eight 1.7% 0.0 98.3 1.7
Final Four 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0